Preseason Rankings
Oregon St.
West Coast
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#113
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.4#342
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#95
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#145
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 5.2% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.2% 1.4% 0.2%
Average Seed 10.5 10.5 11.2
.500 or above 72.1% 77.0% 50.7%
.500 or above in Conference 64.0% 67.1% 50.4%
Conference Champion 3.8% 4.3% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 2.4% 5.8%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.2%
First Round4.2% 4.8% 1.8%
Second Round1.3% 1.5% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Home) - 81.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 4
Quad 22 - 32 - 7
Quad 36 - 48 - 11
Quad 49 - 218 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 208   North Dakota St. W 72-63 81%    
  Nov 07, 2025 154   Illinois-Chicago W 73-67 72%    
  Nov 12, 2025 89   North Texas W 60-59 53%    
  Nov 17, 2025 28   @ Oregon L 62-76 11%    
  Nov 21, 2025 241   Evansville W 70-62 77%    
  Nov 29, 2025 169   California Baptist W 70-62 75%    
  Dec 03, 2025 205   Vermont W 67-58 79%    
  Dec 06, 2025 268   Southern Utah W 75-63 86%    
  Dec 13, 2025 217   Montana St. W 72-62 80%    
  Dec 17, 2025 194   Sam Houston St. W 73-64 77%    
  Dec 21, 2025 68   @ Arizona St. L 66-74 26%    
  Dec 28, 2025 105   Santa Clara W 72-70 58%    
  Dec 30, 2025 75   San Francisco L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 02, 2026 219   @ Pacific W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 04, 2026 124   @ Washington St. L 71-73 45%    
  Jan 08, 2026 121   Seattle W 67-63 64%    
  Jan 10, 2026 262   @ Portland W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 14, 2026 136   Loyola Marymount W 70-65 66%    
  Jan 17, 2026 219   Pacific W 73-63 80%    
  Jan 21, 2026 49   @ St. Mary's L 56-67 19%    
  Jan 28, 2026 136   @ Loyola Marymount L 67-68 46%    
  Jan 31, 2026 183   @ San Diego W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 04, 2026 124   Washington St. W 74-70 65%    
  Feb 07, 2026 19   Gonzaga L 68-78 20%    
  Feb 12, 2026 75   @ San Francisco L 65-72 29%    
  Feb 15, 2026 121   @ Seattle L 64-66 45%    
  Feb 21, 2026 239   Pepperdine W 76-65 81%    
  Feb 25, 2026 183   San Diego W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 28, 2026 105   @ Santa Clara L 69-73 37%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.2 3.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.7 3.2 2.1 0.6 0.0 9.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.0 4.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.7 3.2 0.8 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.4 5.2 2.7 0.5 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.2 2.6 0.3 11.4 6th
7th 0.3 2.6 4.8 2.2 0.2 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.1 2.2 0.2 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 6.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.6 6.6 9.1 10.5 11.6 11.7 11.4 9.8 8.0 5.5 3.5 1.7 0.6 0.2 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 92.0% 0.6    0.4 0.2
16-2 65.7% 1.1    0.7 0.4 0.0
15-3 33.5% 1.2    0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 10.1% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 86.5% 40.6% 45.9% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.3%
17-1 0.6% 55.0% 24.9% 30.2% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 40.2%
16-2 1.7% 47.8% 25.4% 22.4% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.9 30.0%
15-3 3.5% 26.0% 17.5% 8.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.6 10.3%
14-4 5.5% 14.4% 11.6% 2.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.7 3.1%
13-5 8.0% 8.2% 7.5% 0.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.3 0.7%
12-6 9.8% 4.8% 4.6% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 9.4 0.1%
11-7 11.4% 1.9% 1.8% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.2 0.1%
10-8 11.7% 1.3% 1.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.6
9-9 11.6% 0.7% 0.7% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.5
8-10 10.5% 0.2% 0.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.5
7-11 9.1% 0.1% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 9.1
6-12 6.6% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 6.5
5-13 4.6% 4.6
4-14 2.8% 2.8
3-15 1.6% 1.6
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.6% 3.4% 1.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.4 1.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.5 49.4 50.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 2.0 100.0