Oregon St.
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.1 153
Expected Predictive Rating +1.6 137
Pace 63.7 316
Improvement +3.2 59

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 156 C C C- A C
Defense C 181 B- C D D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 268 D 52% 314 -3.8 309
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 224 C+ 40% 94 -0.5 206
Three Pointers 46% 72 B- 36% 104 +3.9 58
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 183 C -0.5 188
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 189
Second Chance D 26.2% 300 A 1.24 10 C 0.32 144
Turnovers C- 17.5% 218
Freethrows A- 0.38 12 B+ 77% 21 A 0.29 7
Total Offense C +0.5 156

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 75 C+ 55% 109 -1.3 219
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 289 C+ 37% 157 +1.5 76
Three Pointers 40% 196 B 31% 58 +2.1 97
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 304 B- -3.0 69
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 101
Second Chance C- 32.0% 241 C+ 0.99 125 C 0.32 203
Turnovers D 14.6% 317
Freethrows C- 0.32 237 D+ 74% 297 D+ 0.24 264
Total Defense C -0.4 181

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 288 17.4 209
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 343 0.17 189
Improvement +1.9 #90 +1.3 #111

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.5 13.6
.500 or above 75% 97% 65%
.500 or above in Conference 73% 96% 62%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Seattle (Away) - 32.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 42 - 7
Quad 39 - 611 - 13
Quad 45 - 317 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 145 North Dakota St. W 67 - 65 58% +1  57% 1 - 0 C -0 D- -6 C F C+ B+ +6 B A F
 Fri, Nov 7 128 Illinois-Chicago W 76 - 73 54% +3  64% 2 - 0 C+ +2 C+ +3 A- A+ F C -1 D- A B
 Wed, Nov 12 140 North Texas W 66 - 64 56% -6  4% 3 - 0 C +1 C+ +2 D+ D A+ C -1 D- C A-
 Mon, Nov 17 82 @Oregon L 75 - 87 18% -7  1% 3 - 1 C- -2 B +6 C- B C- D- -9 D C- D
 Fri, Nov 21 276 Evansville L 69 - 73 75% -4  11% 3 - 2 D -11 D- -6 F A+ D D+ -5 B F D+
 Sat, Nov 22 247 Iona L 84 - 91 2OT 68% +5  84% 3 - 3 D- -12 D- -8 C- F D+ C- -3 C+ C D
 Mon, Nov 24 178 Massachusetts L 65 - 73 55% -2  18% 3 - 4 D -9 F+ -8 B- F F C -1 A- F D
 Sat, Nov 29 137 California Baptist L 69 - 75 56% -2  37% 3 - 5 D+ -7 C- -2 B+ D- D- D -6 F+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 226 Vermont W 80 - 58 74% +16  99% 4 - 5 A- +15 A- +11 A+ D+ D+ B+ +8 A- B+ D+
 Sat, Dec 6 288 Southern Utah W 81 - 70 84% +11  99% 5 - 5 C +1 C +1 B+ D+ F C -0 B F C-
 Sat, Dec 13 156 Montana St. W 67 - 57 63% +4  92% 6 - 5 B- +7 D+ -3 F A+ C- A +11 A+ F+ C+
 Wed, Dec 17 119 Sam Houston St. L 75 - 85 52% -8  1% 6 - 6 D -10 D -6 C F+ B+ D+ -4 C D+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 68 @Arizona St. W 78 - 75 15% -1  42% 7 - 6 B+ +14 A- +11 A- F B B- +4 A- A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 28 44 Santa Clara L 64 - 102 20% -22  0% 7 - 7 0 - 1 F -29 D- -7 C- D+ D F -22 F A D
 Tue, Dec 30 118 San Francisco W 70 - 62 51% +3  58% 8 - 7 1 - 1 B- +8 C +1 A+ F D B+ +8 A+ B+ D+
 Fri, Jan 2 114 @Pacific L 53 - 84 28% -17  3% 8 - 8 1 - 2 F -25 F -12 F B F+ F -16 F C- F+
 Sun, Jan 4 125 @Washington St. L 67 - 81 31% -11  0% 8 - 9 1 - 3 D -9 D+ -3 C- B- C D -7 C+ F C
 Thu, Jan 8 134 Seattle W 68 - 55 55% +2  51% 9 - 9 2 - 3 B+ +12 C -0 F A+ C A +12 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 207 @Portland L 76 - 82 49% +2  60% 9 - 10 2 - 4 D+ -6 B +7 C+ D A- F -13 C+ D- F
 Wed, Jan 14 151 Loyola Marymount W 76 - 70 60% +1  52% 10 - 10 3 - 4 C+ +3 C +1 F A B+ C+ +2 A+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 114 Pacific L 64 - 81 50% -6  5% 10 - 11 3 - 5 F+ -17 D+ -2 D+ B- B- F -17 F+ B- F
 Wed, Jan 21 40 @St. Mary's L 51 - 81 8% -14  0% 10 - 12 3 - 6 D- -14 F -10 F F+ C+ D- -8 B- D- F
 Wed, Jan 28 151 @Loyola Marymount W 72 - 69 37% +0  47% 11 - 12 4 - 6 B- +6 B- +5 A+ B F C+ +1 C C+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 215 @San Diego W 78 - 76 OT 50% -1  35% 12 - 12 5 - 6 C+ +2 F+ -9 D+ F C A +11 B- B- A+
 Wed, Feb 4 125 Washington St. W 74 - 64 54% -4  19% 13 - 12 6 - 6 B +9 C- -1 F B A+ A +11 A+ C+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 12 Gonzaga L 61 - 81 8% -5  16% 13 - 13 6 - 7 C- -4 A- +9 A A- A F -19 C F F
 Thu, Feb 12 118 @San Francisco W 90 - 63 29% +17  99% 14 - 13 7 - 7 A+ +33 A+ +30 A+ A+ D+ B+ +7 A+ C- D
 Sun, Feb 15 134 @Seattle L 64 - 69 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 294 Pepperdine W 76 - 65 84%
 Wed, Feb 25 215 San Diego W 77 - 71 72%
 Sat, Feb 28 44 @Santa Clara L 68 - 83 8%
Totals 16 - 15 9 - 9 +0 F +0 B C C B- +0 B- B+ A



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D C+ B- C 36% 18% 46% C C D A C C- A- B+ A C C+ C+ B B- 43% 17% 40% D B- C- C+ C D C- D+ D+
1.09 52% 40% 36% 0 0 1.01 26% 1.2 .32 17% .38 77% .29 1.09 55% 37% 31% -3 +1 0.97 32% 1.0 .32 15% .32 74% .28
Nov
3		 North Dakota St. D- D+ A+ B- C 29% 17% 54% C C F F F C+ A+ D+ A+ B+ C F A+ A- 44% 15% 41% F B B A+ A F A A A
1.02 58% 57% 36% +5 0 1.12 17% 0.6 .10 18% .48 73% .35 0.99 58% 50% 23% -5 +1 0.94 28% 0.7 .21 11% .19 64% .12
Nov
7		 Illinois-Chicago C+ B+ A+ B A 27% 20% 54% D+ A- A+ B A+ F A+ B+ A+ C D+ F C+ D- 31% 10% 58% D D- A- A A B D- F F
1.10 64% 50% 36% +6 -1 1.12 54% 1.1 .57 30% .52 80% .42 1.06 60% 60% 32% +1 +1 1.06 30% 0.8 .24 20% .38 86% .33
Nov
12		 North Texas C+ F A+ B- D 37% 9% 53% A- D+ F A+ D A+ A+ A+ A+ C B F D+ D 56% 7% 37% F D- F+ B+ C A- B- C+ B-
1.05 31% 50% 35% -8 +1 0.88 20% 1.3 .27 14% .52 82% .43 1.02 52% 67% 33% -2 +3 1.05 40% 0.8 .33 22% .33 69% .22
Nov
17		 Oregon B C- C+ D D+ 36% 15% 49% A- C- C- A+ B C- A+ A A+ D- B C F D 45% 11% 45% D- D F B+ C- D F B- F
1.10 53% 43% 30% -4 +1 0.96 27% 1.2 .33 18% .44 84% .37 1.28 52% 40% 43% +4 +2 1.13 44% 1.0 .44 15% .67 69% .46
Nov
21		 Evansville D- F A+ F F 41% 17% 41% B F B+ A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ D+ F+ A+ B+ B 31% 29% 40% C+ B F B+ F D+ F F F
1.02 42% 63% 16% -14 +1 0.76 39% 1.5 .58 19% .42 83% .35 1.08 69% 25% 29% -3 -2 0.93 38% 0.9 .34 18% .63 80% .50
Nov
22		 Iona D- C+ F B- D+ 47% 16% 36% B- C- F+ F F D+ A+ F A+ C- A+ F F+ B 43% 10% 48% F C+ F A+ C D D F F
0.99 62% 11% 35% -2 +1 1.00 27% 0.7 .18 18% .51 58% .30 1.07 37% 50% 40% -4 +2 0.98 34% 0.7 .23 15% .30 82% .25
Nov
24		 Massachusetts F+ A+ D C B 22% 20% 59% D- B- D+ F F F D C- D C C+ C A+ A 50% 20% 30% D- A- F C F D B- A B+
0.98 90% 33% 33% +6 -1 1.11 24% 0.3 .07 24% .34 71% .24 1.10 56% 40% 20% -7 +1 0.90 41% 1.2 .49 17% .31 59% .18
Nov
29		 California Baptist C- F F A+ B+ 38% 15% 47% B- B+ F B- D- D- C- A+ B D D- A+ F F+ 54% 17% 29% D F+ A+ A A+ F D+ A C+
1.03 44% 29% 45% +1 +1 1.06 14% 1.0 .14 18% .31 88% .27 1.11 61% 22% 40% +1 +2 1.08 27% 0.7 .19 10% .33 65% .22
Dec
3		 Vermont A- B- A- A+ A+ 22% 22% 56% D+ A+ D+ C- D+ D+ F A+ C- B+ C- A+ C A- 33% 29% 38% A A- F A+ B+ D+ B- D C+
1.29 64% 45% 50% +16 -1 1.32 23% 1.0 .23 14% .24 92% .23 0.93 63% 21% 33% -4 -1 0.92 34% 0.5 .16 14% .24 77% .19
Dec
6		 Southern Utah C A D- A+ A- 40% 24% 36% C- B+ F+ B+ D+ F A A A+ C B F A+ A- 57% 8% 35% F B B- F F C- C A- C+
1.15 70% 33% 44% +9 0 1.20 24% 1.1 .28 18% .33 79% .26 1.00 52% 50% 22% -9 +3 0.90 26% 1.7 .43 18% .24 64% .16
Dec
13		 Montana St. D+ D B- F F 40% 18% 43% C F F A+ A+ C- A+ A- A+ A A+ F A A+ 37% 18% 45% D- A+ C+ F F+ C+ D+ A+ B-
1.04 50% 43% 18% -13 +1 0.78 18% 2.8 .50 17% .53 82% .43 0.89 28% 56% 27% -12 0 0.78 28% 1.4 .38 17% .28 60% .17
Dec
17		 Sam Houston St. D A+ F F C 24% 15% 62% C- C F A+ F+ B+ D+ B C- D+ B- B- C- B- 46% 12% 42% F+ C D- B- D+ C F D F
1.01 92% 25% 26% -1 0 1.00 11% 1.8 .20 15% .30 74% .22 1.14 54% 33% 36% -1 +2 1.04 41% 0.9 .38 17% .37 74% .28
Dec
21		 Arizona St. A- C+ A+ A- A 34% 20% 46% C A- A- F F B A A+ A+ B- B+ F A+ A 45% 20% 35% D+ A- A A A+ D+ D- F F
1.17 59% 50% 39% +6 0 1.14 40% 0.5 .20 18% .38 86% .33 1.12 52% 60% 22% -5 +1 0.94 24% 1.0 .24 13% .42 88% .36
Dec
28		 Santa Clara D- F F A+ C 25% 20% 55% D- C- D C D+ D A+ F A F F C F F 29% 18% 53% B F B- A A D F C+ F
0.93 36% 22% 42% -2 -1 0.95 26% 1.0 .26 23% .51 63% .32 1.49 93% 44% 58% +30 0 1.61 35% 0.9 .30 13% .40 71% .29
Dec
30		 San Francisco C F A+ A+ A+ 33% 18% 49% C+ A+ F A+ F D C- A+ B+ B+ B F A+ A+ 42% 20% 38% C A+ A+ F B+ D+ F C- F+
1.11 40% 75% 45% +9 0 1.20 5% 3.0 .14 16% .26 93% .25 0.98 53% 56% 12% -11 0 0.80 22% 1.4 .30 14% .41 73% .30
Jan
2		 Pacific F F F C F 28% 28% 45% C- F D A+ B F+ F F+ F F D+ D+ F F 33% 20% 47% C+ F C- C C- F+ F C+ F
0.85 31% 23% 33% -12 -2 0.74 20% 1.6 .31 19% .22 64% .14 1.35 60% 44% 52% +15 0 1.31 36% 1.0 .36 16% .46 75% .34
Jan
4		 Washington St. D+ F A C D+ 33% 13% 53% B C- D- A+ B- C A F B D F+ F A- C+ 39% 17% 43% C C+ F D+ F C F C+ F
1.03 47% 50% 33% -3 +1 0.98 20% 1.7 .33 15% .38 67% .25 1.24 72% 50% 30% +5 0 1.13 42% 1.1 .45 18% .41 73% .30
Jan
8		 Seattle C F F F F 43% 18% 39% B- F A A+ A+ C A+ A A+ A A+ F A+ A+ 53% 4% 43% F A+ F A+ A+ D+ F A+ D+
1.00 32% 13% 24% -22 +1 0.59 41% 1.7 .68 21% .54 79% .43 0.81 39% 50% 26% -15 +3 0.79 33% 0.1 .04 16% .42 54% .23
Jan
10		 Portland B C A+ C B- 37% 24% 39% D+ C+ F B D A- A+ B- A+ F D+ A+ B- C+ 40% 17% 43% C- C+ D- C D- F F F F
1.15 59% 45% 33% +2 -1 1.04 22% 1.2 .26 14% .58 76% .44 1.24 63% 25% 30% -3 +1 0.98 35% 1.2 .42 11% .58 88% .51
Jan
14		 Loyola Marymount C F B+ F F 36% 19% 45% B- F C A+ A B+ A+ A+ A+ C+ C- A+ A A+ 39% 28% 33% C A+ D- F F B+ F F F
1.08 35% 44% 24% -14 0 0.74 31% 1.5 .46 13% .51 94% .47 1.00 61% 8% 27% -11 -1 0.78 32% 1.5 .47 21% .45 96% .43
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
17		 Pacific D+ D- A+ F D+ 29% 33% 38% D D+ D- A+ B- B- A+ A+ A+ F D- A+ F D- 55% 10% 35% F F+ B C B- F C A+ B-
1.03 50% 50% 25% -3 -2 0.90 19% 1.6 .30 15% .51 81% .42 1.31 64% 20% 44% +7 +3 1.22 31% 1.0 .31 11% .27 67% .18
Jan
21		 St. Mary's F F A- F F 40% 26% 33% C F D+ F F+ C+ A+ A- A+ D- C B- B- B 48% 13% 39% F+ B- D+ D- D- F F A D
0.81 35% 45% 14% -17 -1 0.67 21% 0.5 .10 14% .50 78% .39 1.29 59% 33% 33% 0 +2 1.04 39% 1.2 .48 11% .41 74% .30
Jan
28		 Loyola Marymount B- C- A+ A A+ 33% 27% 40% C- A+ C A B F C- B C C+ F+ F A- D+ 25% 35% 40% A C B D C+ F A- B A-
1.09 53% 58% 39% +7 -1 1.13 32% 1.2 .39 24% .28 79% .22 1.05 69% 50% 29% +4 -3 1.04 24% 1.1 .26 14% .19 64% .12
Jan
31		 San Diego F+ F C+ B+ D 44% 13% 44% B D+ F F F C A- D- B A C F+ A B 34% 22% 43% C B- C B+ B- A+ B C- B
0.95 46% 43% 38% -2 +1 1.00 21% 0.9 .18 20% .41 67% .27 0.93 60% 46% 28% -1 -1 0.98 30% 0.8 .25 24% .19 75% .15
Feb
4		 Washington St. C- F+ F F F 53% 20% 27% B+ F B C+ B A+ A+ C A+ A A+ A+ A A+ 32% 6% 62% D- A+ A+ F C+ F F D+ F
1.09 48% 27% 20% -13 +1 0.78 32% 1.2 .37 7% .43 74% .32 0.95 33% 0% 28% -16 +1 0.72 21% 1.4 .28 13% .44 77% .34
Feb
7		 Gonzaga A- F B A+ A+ 28% 31% 41% C- A D+ A+ A- A A+ B A+ F C- F+ B+ C+ 52% 28% 20% D C C- F F F C F F+
1.10 36% 42% 50% +5 -2 1.08 20% 1.6 .32 16% .39 72% .28 1.46 65% 50% 30% +6 0 1.14 38% 1.8 .69 4% .30 88% .26
Feb
12		 San Francisco A+ A F A+ A+ 37% 21% 42% C A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ B+ B A+ A+ A+ 39% 16% 45% C- A+ D- B C- D C- B C+
1.48 69% 22% 56% +14 0 1.30 42% 1.9 .79 15% .52 89% .46 1.04 53% 25% 23% -12 +1 0.80 38% 1.0 .38 13% .34 67% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 1.3 25.9 21.2 1.7 50.0 4th
5th 0.1 13.4 21.8 2.0 0.0 37.3 5th
6th 0.8 7.9 0.5 9.2 6th
7th 1.3 1.0 2.3 7th
8th 0.8 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.2 0.2 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 3.2 23.7 48.2 23.2 1.8 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 1.8% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 1.8
10-8 23.2% 0.2% 0.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 23.1
9-9 48.2% 0.1% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 48.2
8-10 23.7% 0.1% 0.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 23.6
7-11 3.2% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 3.2
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 13.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%
Lose Out 1.8%