Oregon St.
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.8 #180
Expected Predictive Rating -0.1 #161
Pace 64.3 #299
Improvement -1.6 #257

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #167 C C D+ A- C
Defense #229 C C D+ D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #293 1.06 #296 -4.1 #312
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #224 0.84 #62 -0.2 #180
Three Pointers 48% #51 1.03 #166 +3.7 #62
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #192 -0.6 #193
Freethrows 0.37 #15 77% #21 0.28 #7
Second Chance 24.7% #327 1.26 #11 0.31 #189
Turnovers 17.8% #267
Total Offense -0.2 #167

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #74 1.13 #141 -1.8 #239
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #286 0.75 #167 +1.3 #88
Three Pointers 40% #210 0.97 #113 +1.3 #130
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #150 +0.9 #148
Freethrows 0.33 #275 75% #317 0.25 #293
Second Chance 32.5% #273 0.96 #64 0.31 #155
Turnovers 14.3% #304
Total Defense -1.6 #229

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #189 1.5% #306
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.2% #191 -3.1% #121
Possession Length 17.7 #213 17.3 #178
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #345 0.18 #208
Improvement -0.3 #196 -1.3 #252

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 n/a 15.0
.500 or above 11.5% 22.1% 4.3%
.500 or above in Conference 9.1% 18.2% 2.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.3% 2.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Away) - 40.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 37 - 89 - 15
Quad 45 - 314 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 136 North Dakota St. W 67 - 65 49% +1  1 - 0 +0 -3 C+ F C+ +4 B A F
 Fri, Nov 7 137 Illinois-Chicago W 76 - 73 49% +3  2 - 0 +1 +5 A- A+ F -3 D A+ B
 Wed, Nov 12 143 North Texas W 66 - 64 51% -6  3 - 0 +0 +5 C- D A+ -5 D- C A-
 Mon, Nov 17 79 @Oregon L 75 - 87 13% -7  3 - 1 -2 +9 C B- D+ -11 D C- D
 Fri, Nov 21 267 Evansville L 69 - 73 66% -4  3 - 2 -10 -2 F A+ D- -8 C+ D- D+
 Sat, Nov 22 231 Iona L 84 - 91 2OT 59% +5  3 - 3 -11 -4 C F C- -6 C C D+
 Mon, Nov 24 171 Massachusetts L 65 - 73 47% -2  3 - 4 -9 -4 B- F F -5 B+ F+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 142 California Baptist L 69 - 75 50% -2  3 - 5 -8 -0 B D- D- -8 D- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 201 Vermont W 80 - 58 64% +16  4 - 5 +17 +14 A+ D+ D +5 A- B C-
 Sat, Dec 6 293 Southern Utah W 81 - 70 79% +11  5 - 5 +1 +4 B+ D+ F -3 B- F C
 Sat, Dec 13 161 Montana St. W 67 - 57 56% +4  6 - 5 +7 -2 F A+ D+ +9 A+ D- C+
 Wed, Dec 17 112 Sam Houston St. L 75 - 85 42% -8  6 - 6 -10 -2 C F+ B+ -7 C C- C
 Sun, Dec 21 77 @Arizona St. W 78 - 75 13% -1  7 - 6 +13 +12 A- F+ B- +1 A A C-
 Sun, Dec 28 49 Santa Clara L 64 - 102 18% -22  7 - 7 0 - 1 -30 -4 C D+ D -26 F A+ D
 Tue, Dec 30 97 San Francisco W 70 - 62 35% +3  8 - 7 1 - 1 +10 +6 A+ F+ D +5 A+ B+ D+
 Fri, Jan 2 122 @Pacific L 53 - 84 25% -17  8 - 8 1 - 2 -26 -10 F B- F+ -19 F C- D-
 Sun, Jan 4 128 @Washington St. L 67 - 81 27% -11  8 - 9 1 - 3 -9 -0 C- C+ C- -10 C+ F C
 Thu, Jan 8 124 Seattle W 68 - 55 46% +2  9 - 9 2 - 3 +12 +3 F A+ C+ +10 A+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 217 @Portland L 76 - 82 45% +2  9 - 10 2 - 4 -6 +9 B- D B+ -15 B- D- F
 Wed, Jan 14 160 Loyola Marymount W 76 - 70 55% +1  10 - 10 3 - 4 +3 +4 F+ A- A- -1 A+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 122 Pacific L 64 - 81 46% -6  10 - 11 3 - 5 -18 -1 D+ C+ C+ -19 F+ C+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 43 @St. Mary's L 51 - 81 7% -14  10 - 12 3 - 6 -15 -9 F F C -10 C D F
 Wed, Jan 28 160 @Loyola Marymount W 72 - 69 33% +0  11 - 12 4 - 6 +6 +8 A+ B F -2 C C+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 202 @San Diego L 75 - 77 41%
 Wed, Feb 4 128 Washington St. L 74 - 75 48%
 Sat, Feb 7 11 Gonzaga L 66 - 84 4%
 Thu, Feb 12 97 @San Francisco L 65 - 75 18%
 Sun, Feb 15 124 @Seattle L 63 - 70 26%
 Sat, Feb 21 285 Pepperdine W 74 - 66 78%
 Wed, Feb 25 202 San Diego W 78 - 74 63%
 Sat, Feb 28 49 @Santa Clara L 67 - 83 7%
Totals 14 - 17 7 - 11 -2 +0 C C D+ -2 C C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 1.1 0.2 3.3 4th
5th 0.1 4.2 4.0 0.4 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 2.1 9.2 1.4 0.0 12.8 6th
7th 0.2 9.8 5.7 0.1 15.8 7th
8th 0.0 4.5 14.0 1.1 0.0 19.7 8th
9th 0.1 3.0 15.7 4.9 0.1 23.8 9th
10th 0.5 5.8 5.0 0.1 11.4 10th
11th 1.2 2.8 0.3 4.3 11th
12th 0.2 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 2.0 11.6 25.8 31.1 20.4 7.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.2
10-8 1.5% 1.5
9-9 7.4% 7.4
8-10 20.4% 20.4
7-11 31.1% 31.1
6-12 25.8% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 25.8
5-13 11.6% 11.6
4-14 2.0% 2.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.0%