Florida Atlantic
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.6#222
Expected Predictive Rating-11.5#318
Pace69.0#191
Improvement-0.2#193

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#149
First Shot-2.5#259
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#26
Layup/Dunks+0.9#133
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#296
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#160
Freethrows-1.3#258
Improvement-0.3#215

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#284
First Shot-5.0#321
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#77
Layups/Dunks+1.3#142
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#207
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#316
Freethrows-2.1#295
Improvement+0.1#172
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 1.5% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.5
.500 or above 25.0% 29.7% 12.4%
.500 or above in Conference 35.7% 39.0% 27.0%
Conference Champion 1.3% 1.6% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 10.5% 9.1% 14.3%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round1.3% 1.5% 0.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stetson (Home) - 72.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 84 - 12
Quad 48 - 512 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 230   @ New Mexico L 92-99 41%     0 - 1 -7.3 +8.3 -14.9
  Nov 16, 2021 120   Miami (FL) L 66-68 40%     0 - 2 -2.0 -7.7 +5.6
  Nov 19, 2021 345   Tennessee Martin W 75-67 90%     1 - 2 -8.6 -6.8 -1.7
  Nov 20, 2021 329   North Dakota W 98-79 85%     2 - 2 +5.1 +18.2 -12.7
  Nov 22, 2021 242   Troy L 78-83 OT 67%     2 - 3 -12.1 -3.9 -7.6
  Nov 28, 2021 164   James Madison L 65-69 51%     2 - 4 -6.8 -1.0 -6.2
  Dec 01, 2021 270   Stetson W 74-68 73%    
  Dec 05, 2021 287   North Florida W 78-71 76%    
  Dec 15, 2021 81   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 59-71 13%    
  Dec 21, 2021 285   @ High Point W 69-68 54%    
  Dec 30, 2021 198   Charlotte W 70-68 59%    
  Jan 01, 2022 234   Old Dominion W 69-65 64%    
  Jan 08, 2022 114   @ Marshall L 77-86 20%    
  Jan 13, 2022 181   @ Middle Tennessee L 69-74 34%    
  Jan 15, 2022 52   @ UAB L 65-79 10%    
  Jan 20, 2022 126   Western Kentucky L 73-75 42%    
  Jan 22, 2022 114   Marshall L 80-83 39%    
  Jan 27, 2022 160   @ UTEP L 66-72 29%    
  Jan 29, 2022 299   @ Texas San Antonio W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 03, 2022 108   Louisiana Tech L 74-78 37%    
  Feb 05, 2022 246   Southern Miss W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 10, 2022 126   @ Western Kentucky L 70-78 23%    
  Feb 17, 2022 107   North Texas L 62-66 37%    
  Feb 19, 2022 181   Middle Tennessee W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 24, 2022 234   @ Old Dominion L 66-68 42%    
  Feb 26, 2022 198   @ Charlotte L 67-71 37%    
  Mar 03, 2022 225   @ Florida International L 68-71 41%    
  Mar 05, 2022 225   Florida International W 71-68 60%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 1.9 0.9 0.1 4.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 2.7 1.3 0.2 5.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.1 5th
6th 0.4 3.1 3.2 0.4 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 4.6 1.3 0.1 8.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.9 2.4 0.1 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.4 3.9 0.5 0.0 9.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.9 5.1 1.2 0.1 10.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.9 1.8 0.1 10.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.3 2.3 0.2 9.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.8 2.1 0.4 0.0 9.0 13th
14th 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.0 1.1 0.3 5.7 14th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.1 4.6 8.0 10.2 12.4 13.2 13.1 11.6 8.7 6.6 4.4 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 85.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 78.6% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 36.8% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.8% 0.3    0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 11.9% 11.9% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-4 1.3% 12.8% 12.8% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1
13-5 2.6% 8.8% 8.8% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.4
12-6 4.4% 6.6% 6.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.1
11-7 6.6% 4.0% 4.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.3
10-8 8.7% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.1 0.1 8.6
9-9 11.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 11.5
8-10 13.1% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 13.0
7-11 13.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.1
6-12 12.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.4
5-13 10.2% 10.2
4-14 8.0% 8.0
3-15 4.6% 4.6
2-16 2.1% 2.1
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 98.7 0.0%