Wichita St.
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.9#100
Expected Predictive Rating+1.4#148
Pace65.1#298
Improvement-3.1#345

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#111
First Shot-2.7#254
After Offensive Rebound+5.3#4
Layup/Dunks-2.1#262
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#169
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#245
Freethrows+1.0#120
Improvement-0.9#251

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#99
First Shot+2.6#87
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#213
Layups/Dunks+2.5#95
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#358
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#107
Freethrows+2.2#63
Improvement-2.3#328
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.8% 12.2% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 12.1 12.5
.500 or above 87.5% 89.2% 74.6%
.500 or above in Conference 83.5% 84.2% 78.4%
Conference Champion 14.3% 14.9% 9.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.6% 0.8%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round11.7% 12.2% 8.3%
Second Round2.0% 2.1% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Home) - 88.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 23 - 43 - 7
Quad 35 - 58 - 12
Quad 411 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 219 UNC Asheville W 75-58 86%     1 - 0 +10.4 +0.6 +10.4
  Sat, Nov 8 324 Prairie View W 105-62 94%     2 - 0 +30.2 +17.2 +9.2
  Thu, Nov 13 289 Loyola Chicago W 95-74 91%     3 - 0 +11.0 +21.9 -9.4
  Tue, Nov 18 46 @Boise St. L 59-62 19%     3 - 1 +11.2 +0.7 +10.2
  Sat, Nov 22 233 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 75-58 87%     4 - 1 +9.9 +1.3 +9.3
  Wed, Nov 26 41 St. Mary's L 65-70 25%     4 - 2 +7.1 +0.8 +6.2
  Thu, Nov 27 70 Colorado St. L 70-76 38%     4 - 3 +2.0 +10.3 -9.4
  Fri, Nov 28 147 Western Kentucky L 70-75 65%     4 - 4 -4.1 +4.9 -9.6
  Sat, Dec 6 93 @Northern Iowa W 74-69 OT 36%     5 - 4 +13.7 +9.1 +4.5
  Sat, Dec 13 109 DePaul L 58-61 66%     5 - 5 -2.4 -6.5 +3.7
  Wed, Dec 17 221 Wofford W 84-73 86%     6 - 5 +4.4 +12.5 -7.4
  Sun, Dec 21 243 Eastern Kentucky W 79-66 88%    
  Wed, Dec 31 112 @UAB L 73-75 45%    
  Sat, Jan 3 198 @Charlotte W 70-66 65%    
  Wed, Jan 7 206 Rice W 75-64 85%    
  Sun, Jan 11 146 North Texas W 68-61 74%    
  Thu, Jan 15 118 @Florida Atlantic L 74-75 45%    
  Sun, Jan 18 83 @South Florida L 74-79 33%    
  Wed, Jan 21 255 East Carolina W 77-64 89%    
  Sat, Jan 24 76 Memphis W 72-71 51%    
  Sun, Feb 1 81 @Tulsa L 71-76 32%    
  Wed, Feb 4 198 Charlotte W 73-63 82%    
  Sun, Feb 8 199 @Tulane W 74-70 65%    
  Wed, Feb 11 83 South Florida W 77-76 55%    
  Sat, Feb 14 81 Tulsa W 74-73 53%    
  Wed, Feb 18 255 @East Carolina W 74-67 74%    
  Sat, Feb 21 156 Temple W 78-70 75%    
  Thu, Feb 26 76 @Memphis L 69-75 30%    
  Sun, Mar 1 295 @Texas San Antonio W 76-67 79%    
  Sat, Mar 7 118 Florida Atlantic W 77-72 66%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.7 4.2 2.1 0.6 0.1 14.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.6 6.2 3.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 14.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.4 6.9 3.3 0.4 0.0 14.2 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 6.7 3.5 0.4 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 5.8 3.9 0.5 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.9 4.2 0.6 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.3 2.6 4.0 1.0 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 3.0 1.3 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 3.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.6 4.4 7.7 11.1 13.8 15.1 15.0 12.1 8.5 5.1 2.1 0.6 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 98.9% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 98.4% 2.1    1.9 0.2
15-3 82.9% 4.2    3.0 1.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 54.6% 4.7    2.1 2.0 0.6 0.1
13-5 18.4% 2.2    0.5 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.3% 14.3 8.1 4.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 77.8% 63.9% 13.9% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.5%
17-1 0.6% 39.0% 37.9% 1.1% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 1.8%
16-2 2.1% 29.7% 29.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.5
15-3 5.1% 26.3% 26.3% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.8 0.1%
14-4 8.5% 21.7% 21.7% 11.8 0.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.7
13-5 12.1% 18.3% 18.3% 12.0 0.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 9.8
12-6 15.0% 15.8% 15.8% 12.3 0.2 1.4 0.8 0.0 12.6
11-7 15.1% 9.3% 9.3% 12.4 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.1 13.7
10-8 13.8% 5.3% 5.3% 12.8 0.3 0.4 0.1 13.1
9-9 11.1% 4.4% 4.4% 12.9 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.6
8-10 7.7% 3.3% 3.3% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.5
7-11 4.4% 2.0% 2.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3
6-12 2.6% 1.7% 1.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.5
5-13 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-14 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.2% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.8% 11.7% 0.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.3 6.2 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 88.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 7.5 13.0 13.0 34.8 17.4 4.3 8.7 8.7