Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.3#337
Expected Predictive Rating-11.8#335
Pace69.1#175
Improvement+2.0#61

Offense
Total Offense-6.9#346
First Shot-4.7#304
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#300
Layup/Dunks-5.4#335
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#38
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#120
Freethrows-4.3#353
Improvement+0.8#117

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#289
First Shot-4.2#311
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#126
Layups/Dunks+5.0#45
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#65
3 Pt Jumpshots-11.8#363
Freethrows+1.1#114
Improvement+1.2#81
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1.4% 1.9% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 12.8% 14.9% 8.8%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 25.5% 22.5% 31.3%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Away) - 65.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 61 - 12
Quad 47 - 108 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 49   @ BYU L 50-88 2%     0 - 1 -24.7 -17.5 -7.9
  Nov 07, 2024 60   @ Utah L 63-98 3%     0 - 2 -22.7 -10.1 -9.3
  Nov 16, 2024 324   @ Western Illinois L 61-63 34%     0 - 3 -8.1 -6.2 -2.2
  Nov 21, 2024 295   Southeast Missouri St. L 73-77 OT 49%     0 - 4 -13.9 -10.4 -3.1
  Nov 24, 2024 193   UNC Asheville W 92-83 2OT 29%     1 - 4 +4.6 +1.9 +1.4
  Nov 30, 2024 111   @ Georgia Tech L 68-87 7%     1 - 5 -12.4 +3.6 -17.6
  Dec 04, 2024 233   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 57-63 19%     1 - 6 -6.9 -16.8 +10.2
  Dec 07, 2024 362   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 79-75 65%    
  Dec 14, 2024 33   @ Arkansas L 60-86 1%    
  Dec 16, 2024 325   The Citadel W 68-66 57%    
  Dec 22, 2024 41   @ Oklahoma L 58-83 1%    
  Jan 02, 2025 207   Eastern Kentucky L 71-76 32%    
  Jan 04, 2025 333   Bellarmine W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 09, 2025 329   @ Stetson L 70-74 37%    
  Jan 11, 2025 188   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 60-72 14%    
  Jan 16, 2025 182   @ North Florida L 71-83 13%    
  Jan 18, 2025 212   @ Jacksonville L 64-75 16%    
  Jan 23, 2025 238   Austin Peay L 64-67 39%    
  Jan 25, 2025 105   Lipscomb L 65-76 15%    
  Jan 29, 2025 349   West Georgia W 72-67 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 214   @ North Alabama L 65-76 17%    
  Feb 05, 2025 290   Queens L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 08, 2025 238   @ Austin Peay L 61-70 21%    
  Feb 13, 2025 212   Jacksonville L 67-72 33%    
  Feb 15, 2025 182   North Florida L 74-80 29%    
  Feb 18, 2025 290   @ Queens L 71-78 28%    
  Feb 20, 2025 349   @ West Georgia L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 24, 2025 214   North Alabama L 68-73 34%    
  Feb 26, 2025 105   @ Lipscomb L 62-79 6%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.6 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 2.6 0.7 0.1 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.9 1.3 0.1 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.4 2.7 5.3 2.7 0.3 0.0 11.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.5 7.0 4.0 0.6 0.0 15.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 4.5 7.3 4.1 0.7 0.0 17.7 10th
11th 0.1 1.6 5.7 6.9 3.7 0.7 0.0 18.7 11th
12th 0.6 2.7 5.0 4.6 2.3 0.5 0.0 15.7 12th
Total 0.6 2.8 6.7 11.3 14.3 15.3 14.7 12.3 9.2 5.9 3.4 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 89.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 56.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 21.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.4% 12.8% 12.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.9% 4.3% 4.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.8
11-7 2.0% 2.9% 2.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.0
10-8 3.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 3.4
9-9 5.9% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 5.8
8-10 9.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 9.1
7-11 12.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.3
6-12 14.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.7
5-13 15.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.3
4-14 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.3
3-15 11.3% 11.3
2-16 6.7% 6.7
1-17 2.8% 2.8
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%