Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.3 180
Expected Predictive Rating -1.0 174
Pace 69.6 145
Improvement +5.2 22

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 171 C C- C+ D C+
Defense C- 198 D+ C B B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 298 C+ 60% 116 -1.6 241
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 282 D- 32% 332 -2.7 307
Three Pointers 49% 26 C 34% 162 +4.6 41
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 151 C +0.1 169
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 166
Second Chance D+ 27.6% 261 C 1.02 189 C- 0.28 251
Turnovers C+ 16.2% 145
Freethrows D+ 0.27 287 D 69% 294 D 0.19 311
Total Offense C -0.4 171

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 50% 158 C 10.7% 160
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 158 C- 6.3% 262
Three Pointers B- 88% 90 C 0.9% 186
Total B 62% 57 C+ 5.1% 125

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 321 D 62% 297 -1.9 112
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 359 C+ 37% 149 -2.9 7
Three Pointers 54% 2 D+ 36% 260 +8.2 362
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.5 268 D+ +2.7 284
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.09 287
Second Chance B- 28.1% 88 D- 1.15 324 C 0.32 211
Turnovers B 19.5% 45
Freethrows B- 0.28 92 C 72% 183 B- 0.20 98
Total Defense C- -0.9 198

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 307 D 7.8% 309
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 34% 316 B- 6.5% 82
Three Pointers D 90% 327 D 0.2% 319
Total F+ 67% 356 D 3.5% 328

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 165 16.9 119
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 140 0.20 264
Improvement +5.0 #11 +0.2 #177

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 206 179 152
Conference Record 13 - 5 15 - 3 16 - 2
Conference Finish 3 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23% 25% 21%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 25% 35% 13%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round23% 25% 21%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Away) - 53.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 33 - 23 - 7
Quad 416 - 519 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 30 @North Carolina L 54 - 94 5% -24  0% 0 - 1 F -22 F -18 F B- F C- -1 C- F B+
 Tue, Nov 11 17 @Arkansas L 56 - 93 3% -16  0% 0 - 2 F+ -15 F -15 F C- A+ C+ +2 C- A+ D+
 Sun, Nov 16 187 Samford L 77 - 84 OT 64% +3  62% 0 - 3 D- -12 D- -8 D+ D- D+ D+ -4 D B F
 Thu, Nov 20 138 @North Texas L 56 - 74 30% -5  17% 0 - 4 D- -14 F -12 D+ F F C- -2 B- B D-
 Sun, Nov 23 201 Eastern Washington W 92 - 65 65% +20  98% 1 - 4 A +22 B+ +9 A+ F C A+ +12 A- C- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 320 Eastern Illinois W 81 - 60 87% +16  96% 2 - 4 B- +8 A +12 A A+ C C- -2 D C- C+
 Sat, Nov 29 131 @East Tennessee St. L 57 - 80 28% -10  7% 2 - 5 F -18 F -17 F D+ C+ C -0 F A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 3 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 85 - 47 82% +29  96% 3 - 5 A+ +27 C+ +2 B D- D+ A+ +24 A+ B+ A+
 Sun, Dec 7 304 @East Texas A&M L 68 - 75 65% -1  30% 3 - 6 D- -12 F -11 C- F C+ C -1 B+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 14 @Vanderbilt L 72 - 83 3% -15  0% 3 - 7 B +11 C +1 C- C+ A- A +10 A+ F A-
 Sun, Dec 21 32 @SMU L 82 - 99 5% -11  0% 3 - 8 C +1 A +11 A A D- F -10 D- F B
 Thu, Jan 1 253 Florida Gulf Coast W 85 - 83 75% -3  21% 4 - 8 1 - 0 D+ -6 A +12 B A A+ F -18 F D+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 327 Stetson W 93 - 73 87% +13  88% 5 - 8 2 - 0 B- +6 A +12 B+ A D+ D -5 F D+ B+
 Thu, Jan 8 287 @Bellarmine L 78 - 84 OT 61% +0  43% 5 - 9 2 - 1 D -10 F -10 F C- B+ C+ +1 D D+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 278 @Eastern Kentucky L 75 - 79 OT 60% -1  35% 5 - 10 2 - 2 D+ -8 D -6 C+ F D- C- -2 F C+ C+
 Thu, Jan 15 308 Jacksonville W 62 - 60 84% -5  19% 6 - 10 3 - 2 D -10 D- -7 C- F D+ C- -2 A+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 339 North Florida W 98 - 69 89% +23  95% 7 - 10 4 - 2 B+ +14 A- +10 B+ C B B +4 C A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 22 318 @West Georgia W 86 - 65 70% +9  68% 8 - 10 5 - 2 B+ +14 A- +11 A+ F B+ B +5 D- F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 204 @Queens W 100 - 90 44% -1  35% 9 - 10 6 - 2 B +10 A +14 A C- B+ D+ -4 F A C-
 Sat, Jan 31 278 Eastern Kentucky W 90 - 81 79% +8  98% 10 - 10 7 - 2 C -1 C +0 C+ D A+ C- -2 F A+ B
 Wed, Feb 4 340 North Alabama W 81 - 60 90% +7  81% 11 - 10 8 - 2 B- +6 C+ +2 B D+ C- B+ +5 C+ B+ B-
 Sat, Feb 7 190 @Lipscomb W 86 - 78 41% +9  98% 12 - 10 9 - 2 B +9 B+ +8 C+ B C+ C+ +0 F+ D+ A-
 Mon, Feb 9 340 @North Alabama W 72 - 65 77% -5  10% 13 - 10 10 - 2 C- -2 D -6 F+ C F B +4 F+ C- A+
 Wed, Feb 11 287 Bellarmine W 84 - 76 80% -2  36% 14 - 10 11 - 2 C- -2 C+ +3 D+ D+ A+ D+ -4 F C A+
 Sat, Feb 14 318 West Georgia W 79 - 62 86% +9  97% 15 - 10 12 - 2 C+ +4 C- -1 D+ C- B- B+ +6 D B A-
 Thu, Feb 19 327 @Stetson W 88 - 76 73% +15  95% 16 - 10 13 - 2 C+ +4 A +13 B+ C- C D- -8 F F A
 Sat, Feb 21 253 @Florida Gulf Coast W 77 - 76 54%
 Wed, Feb 25 154 @Austin Peay L 73 - 77 34%
 Sat, Feb 28 204 Queens W 84 - 80 66%
Totals 18 - 11 15 - 3 -1 C +0 A+ C C+ C- -1 C D D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ D- C C 34% 29% 49% C+ C D+ C C- C+ D+ D D C- D C+ D+ D+ 33% 13% 54% D+ D+ B- D- C B B- C B-
1.08 60% 32% 34% 0 0 1.03 28% 1.0 .28 16% .27 69% .19 1.10 62% 37% 36% +3 +1 1.09 28% 1.1 .32 20% .28 72% .20
Nov
3		 North Carolina F F F D F 24% 29% 47% D+ F C- A+ B- F D- D D C- F A+ C+ C 48% 12% 40% F+ C- D F F B+ C F D-
0.72 38% 13% 31% -14 -2 0.69 23% 1.2 .28 23% .15 67% .10 1.25 80% 0% 33% +6 +2 1.17 38% 1.5 .56 16% .35 82% .28
Nov
11		 Arkansas F C+ F+ F F 21% 12% 67% C F F A+ C- A+ A- C- B+ C+ F B+ D C- 29% 16% 55% B- C- A+ C+ A+ D+ C- F D
0.75 58% 29% 8% -27 0 0.47 20% 1.6 .31 11% .32 67% .21 1.25 81% 33% 39% +10 0 1.21 24% 1.3 .30 11% .33 82% .27
Nov
16		 Samford D- B+ F C- D 45% 24% 31% B+ D+ B- F D- D+ A- F C- D+ F A+ C- D 22% 14% 64% C D B- A- B F A D- A-
1.02 65% 14% 33% -3 0 0.97 30% 0.7 .21 15% .36 57% .20 1.12 85% 13% 34% +3 0 1.07 21% 0.9 .19 9% .26 72% .19
Nov
20		 North Texas F D- F C D 37% 16% 47% B D+ C F F F A+ F A+ C- F A+ A+ C+ 43% 25% 32% B+ B- B- B B D- F F F
0.82 50% 17% 33% -7 +1 0.89 33% 0.5 .15 28% .64 56% .36 1.08 74% 18% 14% -8 0 0.86 31% 0.9 .29 15% .55 84% .46
Nov
23		 Eastern Washington B+ B F A+ A+ 43% 4% 53% A- A+ D+ F F C F F F A+ A A+ B- A 27% 10% 63% D+ A- D- B C- A+ B B+ B+
1.28 65% 0% 54% +17 +3 1.42 30% 0.8 .24 17% .23 64% .15 0.90 46% 20% 33% -6 +1 0.92 36% 1.0 .36 31% .26 69% .18
Nov
25		 Eastern Illinois A A+ F B+ A 36% 6% 57% B- A C A+ A+ C F F F C- F C+ A D 33% 25% 42% D+ D A+ F C- C+ B F C-
1.28 82% 0% 37% +9 +2 1.23 35% 1.8 .62 19% .25 62% .16 0.95 69% 33% 25% -3 -1 0.94 17% 1.6 .28 19% .23 92% .21
Nov
29		 East Tennessee St. F F F F+ F 17% 13% 70% D- F F A+ D+ C+ F C F C F C F F 35% 9% 56% D F A+ B+ A+ D+ B+ A+ A+
0.79 44% 14% 29% -11 -1 0.80 13% 1.8 .24 18% .14 75% .10 1.12 74% 40% 40% +11 +1 1.26 13% 1.0 .13 14% .26 50% .13
Dec
3		 Arkansas Little Rock C+ A- B B- 33% 0% 67% B+ B C F D- D+ D C D A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 37% 24% 39% F+ A+ B B B+ A+ B+ A+ A+
1.19 72% 39% +10 +2 1.26 36% 0.7 .25 20% .24 71% .17 0.66 44% 17% 26% -15 -1 0.71 26% 0.9 .24 29% .18 22% .04
Dec
7		 East Texas A&M F B F F D 61% 4% 35% A+ C- F D F C+ F F F C D- A+ A+ A- 29% 10% 60% C- B+ B F F C+ F F F
0.91 63% 0% 25% -3 +4 1.04 11% 1.0 .11 16% .24 33% .08 1.01 64% 20% 24% -9 +1 0.85 19% 2.1 .42 19% .41 76% .31
Dec
13		 Vanderbilt C B- F D+ C 22% 22% 56% C- C- D+ A+ C+ A- A D A- A B F A+ A+ 31% 6% 63% D A+ C F F A- D+ D D
0.96 58% 25% 30% -6 -1 0.87 23% 1.2 .28 16% .43 70% .30 1.10 56% 67% 24% -8 +1 0.88 33% 1.6 .54 17% .35 82% .29
Dec
21		 SMU A D- C A+ A 31% 27% 42% C- A B A A D- B C B F F F B+ D 36% 12% 53% F D- F F F B A+ D A+
1.16 50% 36% 50% +7 -1 1.13 34% 1.2 .40 21% .31 71% .22 1.41 86% 71% 32% +12 +1 1.29 55% 1.3 .72 17% .17 80% .14
Jan
1		 Florida Gulf Coast A B+ F+ A+ B+ 37% 20% 43% C- B B- A+ A A+ C- B+ C+ F F B- F F 27% 16% 57% D- F A+ F D+ D+ B F C-
1.33 67% 30% 43% +7 0 1.16 34% 1.4 .47 11% .35 80% .28 1.29 79% 38% 45% +15 0 1.31 19% 1.8 .35 16% .22 92% .20
Jan
3		 Stetson A A+ F B+ B 40% 8% 52% B+ B+ A B- A D+ A+ B+ A+ D D F F F 24% 13% 62% D+ F D- C+ D+ B+ F B- F
1.37 80% 0% 38% +9 +2 1.24 42% 1.2 .52 16% .40 78% .32 1.07 64% 50% 39% +8 0 1.18 30% 1.0 .30 22% .40 67% .26
Jan
8		 Bellarmine F F F F F 25% 14% 61% C F D+ C+ C- B+ F+ A D+ C+ F D+ D D- 34% 9% 57% C D B F D+ C A- A- A
1.05 47% 25% 28% -10 0 0.81 32% 1.2 .38 12% .25 81% .20 1.13 74% 40% 38% +9 +1 1.21 16% 1.6 .26 16% .23 71% .16
Jan
10		 Eastern Kentucky D D A+ B- C+ 34% 15% 51% C+ C+ C- F F D- F C F+ C- D A+ F F 15% 11% 75% D F B+ D C+ C+ A+ A+ A+
1.06 56% 75% 37% +7 0 1.17 32% 0.3 .11 18% .26 73% .19 1.12 63% 17% 41% +7 0 1.15 28% 1.2 .33 18% .12 57% .07
Jan
15		 Jacksonville D- B- A+ D- C- 43% 25% 33% D+ C- C F F D+ B+ C+ B+ C- A+ F A+ A+ 34% 13% 53% D A+ F C+ F+ F D F+ D-
1.05 65% 50% 31% +4 0 1.10 31% 0.5 .16 17% .43 71% .31 1.02 31% 50% 24% -16 +1 0.72 39% 1.0 .39 10% .32 76% .25
Jan
17		 North Florida A- B A+ B+ A- 33% 11% 56% C B+ B- D C B C A B- B B+ F C C- 24% 14% 63% B C A- A+ A+ C+ F A+ D+
1.39 67% 67% 39% +10 +1 1.24 39% 1.1 .45 10% .28 78% .22 0.98 50% 57% 34% +1 0 1.04 19% 0.6 .11 20% .32 67% .21
Jan
22		 West Georgia A- B+ B- A+ A+ 44% 13% 43% C+ A+ F A+ F B+ F C+ F B C+ F A- D 40% 19% 42% F D- F F F A+ F B F
1.28 67% 43% 52% +16 +1 1.37 11% 1.3 .15 12% .19 73% .13 0.96 53% 63% 28% -1 0 1.00 38% 1.5 .58 33% .40 67% .26
Jan
28		 Queens A A+ A+ A A+ 29% 20% 51% D A F A+ C- B+ A+ A+ A+ D+ F F F F 23% 9% 68% C+ F A+ D- A C- D+ B C-
1.35 80% 50% 42% +15 -1 1.31 22% 1.5 .33 12% .52 82% .43 1.22 75% 60% 44% +17 0 1.36 17% 1.2 .20 15% .33 71% .24
Jan
31		 Eastern Kentucky C C- A+ C+ C 37% 15% 47% B- C+ F A D A+ B F F+ C- B+ A+ F D- 31% 4% 65% F F A A+ A+ B F D+ F
1.19 59% 67% 36% +6 +1 1.15 21% 1.2 .26 8% .37 50% .19 1.07 50% 0% 41% +3 +2 1.12 24% 0.8 .19 20% .43 73% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 North Alabama C+ B+ F A B 39% 7% 54% B- B D C+ D+ C- F B- F B+ A C+ C+ B- 43% 12% 45% D C+ A D+ B+ B- C+ A+ A-
1.22 67% 0% 41% +6 +2 1.19 29% 1.2 .35 15% .16 78% .12 0.90 43% 33% 32% -9 +1 0.88 22% 1.1 .24 20% .30 50% .15
Feb
7		 Lipscomb B+ A+ D D+ B 25% 40% 36% F C+ B B- B C+ B+ C B+ C+ F C F F 22% 13% 65% A- F+ D C+ D+ A- F A F
1.18 92% 33% 32% +5 -3 1.06 36% 1.1 .38 17% .35 71% .25 1.07 70% 33% 40% +8 0 1.17 29% 1.0 .29 21% .38 68% .26
Feb
9		 North Alabama D D+ A+ F F 39% 9% 52% B- F+ D- A+ C F A+ C- A+ B C F B- D- 58% 8% 34% F F+ C D+ C- A+ F F F
1.07 56% 75% 25% -5 +2 0.96 28% 1.4 .41 19% .42 74% .31 0.96 55% 67% 31% -1 +3 1.05 30% 1.1 .33 28% .47 74% .35
Feb
11		 Bellarmine C+ D C B+ D 41% 10% 49% A- D+ D B- D+ A+ A F+ B D+ D+ F F F 30% 9% 61% C+ F C+ D- C A+ A+ F A+
1.28 57% 40% 40% +4 +2 1.14 30% 1.2 .36 8% .40 67% .26 1.16 64% 50% 50% +18 +1 1.39 18% 1.3 .23 24% .16 88% .14
Feb
14		 West Georgia C- D F B D 50% 10% 40% B D+ B- D- C- B- D A+ C B+ B- D C- D+ 41% 29% 31% F+ D B+ C+ B A- C+ A+ A-
1.15 54% 20% 38% -1 +2 1.04 34% 0.8 .29 13% .28 82% .23 0.90 50% 43% 33% -2 -1 0.96 25% 1.0 .25 20% .26 50% .13
Feb
19		 Stetson A A A+ B+ A- 31% 15% 54% C B+ B+ F C- C A B- A D- F A+ F F 20% 22% 59% B F B+ F F A A+ F A-
1.33 73% 57% 38% +11 0 1.25 40% 0.9 .37 15% .36 75% .27 1.15 78% 20% 52% +16 -1 1.30 21% 1.8 .38 24% .16 88% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.6 11.4 13.0 24.9 1st
2nd 5.9 36.3 27.5 69.7 2nd
3rd 5.4 5.4 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 11.3 36.9 38.9 13.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 13.0    7.2 5.8
15-3 29.2% 11.4    2.0 9.4
14-4 1.6% 0.6    0.3 0.3
13-5 0.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 24.9% 24.9 9.2 15.5 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 13.0% 30.0% 30.0% 14.0 0.0 0.7 2.3 0.8 0.0 9.1
15-3 38.9% 25.5% 25.5% 14.6 0.0 0.2 3.8 5.3 0.5 29.0
14-4 36.9% 20.7% 20.7% 14.9 0.0 1.6 4.8 1.2 29.2
13-5 11.3% 16.3% 16.3% 15.1 0.2 1.1 0.5 9.5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.3% 23.3% 0.0% 14.7 76.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.9% 100.0% 14.0 0.3 19.0 60.2 20.3 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.9%
Lose Out 3.9%