Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-14.2#360
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#71
Pace65.9#254
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-7.0#354
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-7.2#361
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.0% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 17.1 n/a 15.6
.500 or above 1.7% 20.0% 1.7%
.500 or above in Conference 9.6% 40.0% 9.5%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.0% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 38.0% 13.3% 38.0%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.0% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas (Away) - 0.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 30 - 60 - 12
Quad 46 - 126 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 23   @ North Carolina L 54-94 1%     0 - 1 -22.3 -14.6 -4.9
  Nov 11, 2025 15   @ Arkansas L 56-90 0.1%   
  Nov 16, 2025 182   Samford L 70-80 19%    
  Nov 20, 2025 98   @ North Texas L 50-72 2%    
  Nov 23, 2025 207   Eastern Washington L 66-75 22%    
  Nov 25, 2025 322   Eastern Illinois L 66-68 43%    
  Nov 29, 2025 148   @ East Tennessee St. L 59-76 6%    
  Dec 03, 2025 149   Arkansas Little Rock L 63-74 17%    
  Dec 07, 2025 332   @ East Texas A&M L 64-71 26%    
  Dec 13, 2025 31   @ Vanderbilt L 58-89 0.3%   
  Dec 21, 2025 47   @ SMU L 59-88 1%    
  Jan 01, 2026 177   Florida Gulf Coast L 63-73 20%    
  Jan 03, 2026 354   Stetson W 72-71 55%    
  Jan 08, 2026 328   @ Bellarmine L 68-75 27%    
  Jan 10, 2026 173   @ Eastern Kentucky L 64-80 9%    
  Jan 15, 2026 247   Jacksonville L 65-71 29%    
  Jan 17, 2026 337   North Florida L 76-77 48%    
  Jan 22, 2026 341   @ West Georgia L 67-74 29%    
  Jan 24, 2026 197   @ North Alabama L 62-77 10%    
  Jan 28, 2026 245   @ Queens L 66-79 14%    
  Jan 31, 2026 173   Eastern Kentucky L 67-77 20%    
  Feb 04, 2026 197   North Alabama L 65-74 23%    
  Feb 07, 2026 244   @ Lipscomb L 62-75 14%    
  Feb 12, 2026 328   Bellarmine L 71-72 45%    
  Feb 14, 2026 341   West Georgia L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 19, 2026 354   @ Stetson L 69-74 35%    
  Feb 21, 2026 177   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 60-76 9%    
  Feb 25, 2026 267   @ Austin Peay L 62-74 17%    
  Feb 28, 2026 245   Queens L 69-76 29%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 1.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.5 5th
6th 0.2 1.2 1.8 0.7 0.0 3.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.8 1.1 0.1 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.0 2.0 0.2 0.0 8.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.1 5.3 2.6 0.4 0.0 12.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 4.6 5.9 3.2 0.6 0.0 15.6 10th
11th 0.3 2.6 6.6 7.3 3.4 0.6 0.0 20.7 11th
12th 2.7 6.8 8.5 6.2 2.3 0.4 0.0 27.0 12th
Total 2.7 7.1 11.1 14.0 14.7 13.2 11.6 9.2 6.6 4.2 2.5 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 85.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 92.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 46.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 29.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.1% 14.3% 14.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.4% 9.3% 9.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.9% 8.7% 8.7% 18.6 0.0 0.1 0.8
11-7 1.4% 3.3% 3.3% 22.7 0.0 0.0 1.3
10-8 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 2.4
9-9 4.2% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 4.1
8-10 6.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.6
7-11 9.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.2
6-12 11.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.6
5-13 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.2
4-14 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.7
3-15 14.0% 14.0
2-16 11.1% 11.1
1-17 7.1% 7.1
0-18 2.7% 2.7
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 17.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%