Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.4 #252
Expected Predictive Rating -5.1 #246
Pace 70.3 #155
Improvement +3.6 #27

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #238 C D- C C C+
Defense #271 C B D+ C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #277 1.24 #93 -0.6 #204
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #293 0.39 #364 -4.7 #355
Three Pointers 50% #29 1.01 #191 +4.4 #53
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #203 -1.0 #201
Freethrows 15.0 #296 65% #338 9.8 #322
Second Chance 27.8% #267 1.15 #77 0.32 #173
Turnovers 16.6% #178
Total Offense -2.4 #238

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #326 1.32 #332 +1.2 #138
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #349 0.61 #26 +3.6 #4
Three Pointers 55% #2 0.97 #138 -5.6 #343
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #207 -0.7 #204
Freethrows 14.0 #34 78% #347 10.9 #291
Second Chance 28.3% #99 1.28 #355 0.36 #274
Turnovers 17.2% #148
Total Defense -3.0 #271

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #133 0.8% #250
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.9% #223 0.7% #195
Possession Length 17.3 #173 16.5 #67
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #188 0.18 #219
Improvement +5.2 #5 -1.6 #287

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.9% 8.6% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 36.2% 50.7% 24.1%
.500 or above in Conference 77.4% 88.8% 67.9%
Conference Champion 8.3% 12.7% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.2% 1.8%
First Four2.6% 2.4% 2.7%
First Round5.8% 7.6% 4.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Away) - 45.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 41 - 10
Quad 413 - 714 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 26 @North Carolina L 54-94 3%     -23.7   0 - 1 -21.9 -14.0 -5.1
  Tue, Nov 11 19 @Arkansas L 56-93 2%     -15.9   0 - 2 -17.7 -12.5 -3.1
  Sun, Nov 16 227 Samford L 77-84 OT 55%     2.7   0 - 3 -13.7 -5.6 -7.6
  Thu, Nov 20 132 @North Texas L 56-74 17%     -5.2   0 - 4 -13.2 -8.1 -5.4
  Sun, Nov 23 248 Eastern Washington W 92-65 61%     20.3   1 - 4 +18.8 +9.3 +8.8
  Tue, Nov 25 319 Eastern Illinois W 81-60 75%     16.0   2 - 4 +8.7 +13.9 -3.0
  Sat, Nov 29 129 @East Tennessee St. L 57-80 17%     -10.2   2 - 5 -18.1 -15.4 -2.2
  Wed, Dec 3 302 Arkansas Little Rock W 85-47 71%     28.6   3 - 5 +27.0 +6.0 +20.2
  Sun, Dec 7 325 @East Texas A&M L 68-75 57%     -0.9   3 - 6 -14.1 -9.9 -3.8
  Sat, Dec 13 8 @Vanderbilt L 72-83 1%     -14.6   3 - 7 +12.4 +4.5 +8.7
  Sun, Dec 21 29 @SMU L 82-99 3%     -11.3   3 - 8 +0.4 +14.6 -14.1
  Thu, Jan 1 177 Florida Gulf Coast W 85-83 45%     -3.1   4 - 8 1 - 0 -2.1 +15.6 -17.5
  Sat, Jan 3 350 Stetson W 93-73 83%     12.7   5 - 8 2 - 0 +4.6 +15.1 -9.9
  Thu, Jan 8 292 @Bellarmine L 77-78 45%    
  Sat, Jan 10 264 @Eastern Kentucky L 76-78 41%    
  Thu, Jan 15 316 Jacksonville W 74-67 74%    
  Sat, Jan 17 346 North Florida W 88-78 82%    
  Thu, Jan 22 307 @West Georgia L 76-77 50%    
  Sat, Jan 24 289 @North Alabama L 71-72 45%    
  Wed, Jan 28 225 @Queens L 79-84 33%    
  Sat, Jan 31 264 Eastern Kentucky W 79-75 63%    
  Wed, Feb 4 289 North Alabama W 74-69 67%    
  Sat, Feb 7 160 @Lipscomb L 72-80 22%    
  Thu, Feb 12 292 Bellarmine W 80-75 67%    
  Sat, Feb 14 307 West Georgia W 79-73 70%    
  Thu, Feb 19 350 @Stetson W 77-73 65%    
  Sat, Feb 21 177 @Florida Gulf Coast L 74-81 25%    
  Wed, Feb 25 203 @Austin Peay L 71-77 30%    
  Sat, Feb 28 225 Queens W 82-81 55%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.9 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 8.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 3.7 5.1 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 13.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.5 6.2 2.3 0.3 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.9 6.5 2.8 0.3 0.0 15.1 4th
5th 0.4 3.9 6.9 2.9 0.3 0.0 14.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 6.1 2.9 0.2 0.0 11.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 4.5 2.9 0.2 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.8 2.6 0.3 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.0 0.6 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.5 6.5 10.5 14.0 15.9 15.0 13.5 9.5 5.7 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 97.3% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 92.5% 0.9    0.8 0.1
15-3 77.3% 2.0    1.3 0.7 0.1
14-4 50.0% 2.9    1.3 1.1 0.4 0.0
13-5 19.0% 1.8    0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.3% 8.3 4.0 2.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 32.4% 32.4% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.9% 22.0% 22.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
15-3 2.6% 16.8% 16.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.2
14-4 5.7% 15.6% 15.6% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 4.8
13-5 9.5% 12.6% 12.6% 15.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 8.3
12-6 13.5% 9.8% 9.8% 15.7 0.4 0.9 12.2
11-7 15.0% 7.6% 7.6% 15.8 0.2 0.9 13.9
10-8 15.9% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8 15.1
9-9 14.0% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.5 13.5
8-10 10.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 10.3
7-11 6.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 6.4
6-12 3.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.5
5-13 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.6 93.1 0.0%