IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.5	#282
Expected Predictive Rating	-7.7	#280

Pace	71.6	#123
Improvement	+2.4	#56

Offense
Total Offense	-4.9	#303

First Shot	-4.2	#301
After Offensive Rebound	-0.7	#227

Layup/Dunks	-2.0	#258
2 Pt Jumpshots	-3.3	#341
3 Pt Jumpshots	+4.8	#43
Freethrows	-3.7	#349

Improvement	+1.5	#78

Defense
Total Defense	-1.5	#214

First Shot	-2.2	#244
After Offensive Rebounds	+0.7	#137

Layups/Dunks	+0.8	#143
2 Pt Jumpshots	+1.9	#42
3 Pt Jumpshots	-5.6	#349
Freethrows	+0.7	#130

Improvement	+0.9	#120

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.0%	5.1%	3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.7	15.7	15.8

.500 or above	16.8%	26.2%	9.6%
.500 or above in Conference	53.7%	68.7%	42.1%
Conference Champion	3.3%	5.9%	1.3%
Last Place in Conference	4.6%	1.9%	6.7%

First Four	2.1%	2.2%	2.0%
First Round	2.9%	4.0%	2.1%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Home) - 43.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 4
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 5
Quad 3	1 - 5	1 - 10
Quad 4	11 - 8	12 - 18

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Mon, Nov 3	21 @North Carolina	L	54-94	2%	0 - 1			-21.0	-13.0	-5.1
Tue, Nov 11	23 @Arkansas	L	56-93	2%	0 - 2			-18.8	-12.9	-3.7
Sun, Nov 16	227 Samford	L	77-84 OT	52%	0 - 3			-14.0	-5.6	-7.9
Thu, Nov 20	146 @North Texas	L	56-74	16%	0 - 4			-14.0	-9.4	-4.9
Sun, Nov 23	258 Eastern Washington	W	92-65	58%	1 - 4			+18.6	+9.4	+8.4
Tue, Nov 25	325 Eastern Illinois	W	81-60	73%	2 - 4			+8.2	+12.3	-2.0
Sat, Nov 29	141 @East Tennessee St.	L	57-80	16%	2 - 5			-18.7	-16.4	-1.8
Wed, Dec 3	309 Arkansas Little Rock	W	85-47	69%	3 - 5			+26.5	+5.6	+20.1
Sun, Dec 7	302 @East Texas A&M	L	68-75	44%	3 - 6			-12.0	-9.7	-1.8
Sat, Dec 13	9 @Vanderbilt	L	72-83	1%	3 - 7			+12.1	+4.4	+8.5
Sun, Dec 21	42 @SMU	L	82-99	3%	3 - 8			-1.9	+14.2	-16.0
Thu, Jan 1	186 Florida Gulf Coast	L	75-77	44%
Sat, Jan 3	349 Stetson	W	77-68	80%
Thu, Jan 8	267 @Bellarmine	L	73-77	37%
Sat, Jan 10	259 @Eastern Kentucky	L	72-76	36%
Thu, Jan 15	317 Jacksonville	W	73-67	70%
Sat, Jan 17	350 North Florida	W	86-77	80%
Thu, Jan 22	316 @West Georgia	L	73-74	48%
Sat, Jan 24	244 @North Alabama	L	69-74	34%
Wed, Jan 28	211 @Queens	L	76-82	29%
Sat, Jan 31	259 Eastern Kentucky	W	75-73	57%
Wed, Feb 4	244 North Alabama	W	72-71	54%
Sat, Feb 7	144 @Lipscomb	L	69-80	17%
Thu, Feb 12	267 Bellarmine	W	76-74	58%
Sat, Feb 14	316 West Georgia	W	77-71	69%
Thu, Feb 19	349 @Stetson	W	74-71	60%
Sat, Feb 21	186 @Florida Gulf Coast	L	72-80	25%
Wed, Feb 25	195 @Austin Peay	L	67-74	26%
Sat, Feb 28	211 Queens	L	79-80	49%
Projected Record					12 - 17	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	0.9	1.1	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.0		3.3	1st
2nd											0.0	0.7	2.1	2.0	0.9	0.2	0.0				6.0	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.7	3.2	3.2	1.0	0.1	0.0					8.3	3rd
4th									0.0	0.5	3.9	4.4	1.4	0.1	0.0						10.3	4th
5th								0.0	0.3	3.6	5.8	2.0	0.1								11.9	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	2.7	6.6	2.9	0.2	0.0								12.6	6th
7th							0.1	2.2	6.0	3.7	0.4										12.4	7th
8th						0.1	1.3	5.0	4.3	0.6	0.0										11.2	8th
9th				0.0	0.1	1.0	3.9	3.9	0.8	0.0											9.6	9th
10th				0.1	0.8	2.7	3.0	0.8	0.0												7.4	10th
11th		0.0	0.1	0.7	1.7	1.8	0.5	0.0													4.8	11th
12th	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	0.7	0.3	0.0														2.2	12th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.5	3.2	5.8	8.8	12.2	14.2	15.0	13.7	10.6	7.0	4.0	2.2	0.9	0.3	0.0	0.0			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-2	94.3%	0.3		0.3	0.0
15-3	80.2%	0.7		0.5	0.2	0.0
14-4	51.9%	1.1		0.6	0.5	0.1
13-5	21.3%	0.9		0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0
12-6	3.1%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.3%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	3.3%	3.3		1.5	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%																		0.0
17-1	0.0%																			0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
16-2	0.3%		23.0%	23.0%		14.7														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2
15-3	0.9%		25.1%	25.1%		14.8															0.1	0.1	0.0	0.7
14-4	2.2%		15.8%	15.8%		15.3														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1	1.9
13-5	4.0%		10.4%	10.4%		15.6															0.0	0.1	0.3	3.6
12-6	7.0%		8.4%	8.4%		15.8																0.1	0.4	6.4
11-7	10.6%		6.6%	6.6%		15.8																0.1	0.6	9.9
10-8	13.7%		4.3%	4.3%		16.0																0.0	0.6	13.1
9-9	15.0%		3.5%	3.5%		16.0																	0.5	14.5
8-10	14.2%		1.9%	1.9%		16.0																	0.3	13.9
7-11	12.2%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.1	12.0
6-12	8.8%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	8.7
5-13	5.8%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	5.8
4-14	3.2%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	3.2
3-15	1.5%																							1.5
2-16	0.4%																							0.4
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		4.0%	4.0%	0.0%	15.7													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.8	3.1	96.0		0.0%