South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.8#224
Expected Predictive Rating-5.5#248
Pace58.4#354
Improvement-1.7#309

Offense
Total Offense-6.2#335
First Shot-7.5#341
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#97
Layup/Dunks+0.3#153
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#113
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#317
Freethrows-3.9#344
Improvement-0.2#204

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#77
First Shot+2.9#89
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#133
Layups/Dunks-0.5#206
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#155
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#164
Freethrows+2.3#49
Improvement-1.5#309
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.3 n/a
.500 or above 6.7% 7.0% 1.2%
.500 or above in Conference 6.4% 6.6% 2.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 43.2% 42.4% 59.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Home) - 95.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 8
Quad 21 - 51 - 12
Quad 33 - 54 - 18
Quad 47 - 211 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 344   Bethune-Cookman W 75-54 89%     1 - 0 +4.6 -2.9 +8.5
  Nov 13, 2021 180   Georgia Southern L 41-53 54%     1 - 1 -15.8 -22.8 +4.3
  Nov 15, 2021 279   N.C. A&T W 56-54 74%     2 - 1 -7.4 -16.1 +8.8
  Nov 19, 2021 21   Auburn L 52-58 7%     2 - 2 +8.0 -10.4 +18.0
  Nov 24, 2021 338   Hampton W 58-52 88%     3 - 2 -9.6 -13.4 +4.7
  Nov 29, 2021 125   @ Boston College L 49-64 21%     3 - 3 -9.3 -12.1 +0.0
  Dec 03, 2021 354   South Carolina St. W 72-54 95%    
  Dec 14, 2021 263   Austin Peay W 62-56 71%    
  Dec 18, 2021 14   Florida L 51-69 4%    
  Dec 22, 2021 20   BYU L 52-69 6%    
  Dec 29, 2021 358   Mississippi Valley W 76-51 99%    
  Jan 01, 2022 178   East Carolina W 61-60 53%    
  Jan 05, 2022 7   Houston L 48-65 6%    
  Jan 08, 2022 163   @ Tulane L 55-61 29%    
  Jan 12, 2022 100   @ SMU L 57-68 17%    
  Jan 15, 2022 65   Central Florida L 56-63 27%    
  Jan 18, 2022 7   @ Houston L 45-68 2%    
  Jan 22, 2022 148   Temple L 59-60 46%    
  Jan 26, 2022 100   SMU L 60-65 34%    
  Jan 29, 2022 142   @ Tulsa L 55-63 26%    
  Feb 03, 2022 65   @ Central Florida L 53-66 13%    
  Feb 09, 2022 55   Cincinnati L 54-62 24%    
  Feb 12, 2022 53   @ Wichita St. L 50-64 10%    
  Feb 15, 2022 163   Tulane L 58-59 50%    
  Feb 19, 2022 142   Tulsa L 58-60 45%    
  Feb 23, 2022 178   @ East Carolina L 58-63 32%    
  Feb 26, 2022 55   @ Cincinnati L 51-65 11%    
  Mar 03, 2022 24   Memphis L 55-69 12%    
  Mar 06, 2022 148   @ Temple L 56-63 28%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 2.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 5.0 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 4.1 2.0 0.3 8.3 7th
8th 0.2 2.8 6.0 3.0 0.3 12.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.9 4.4 0.5 15.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 5.9 9.0 4.5 0.7 0.0 21.5 10th
11th 1.8 6.0 9.8 9.2 3.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 31.3 11th
Total 1.8 6.0 11.2 15.6 16.3 15.0 13.1 8.9 5.6 3.4 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 20.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 0.1
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.3% 0.3
11-7 0.7% 0.7
10-8 1.9% 1.1% 1.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 1.8
9-9 3.4% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 3.4
8-10 5.6% 5.6
7-11 8.9% 8.9
6-12 13.1% 13.1
5-13 15.0% 15.0
4-14 16.3% 16.3
3-15 15.6% 15.6
2-16 11.2% 11.2
1-17 6.0% 6.0
0-18 1.8% 1.8
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%