South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#79
Expected Predictive Rating+6.2#90
Pace77.6#25
Improvement+0.4#152

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#76
First Shot-1.4#205
After Offensive Rebound+5.6#2
Layup/Dunks+2.6#87
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#364
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#240
Freethrows+2.6#43
Improvement-0.6#219

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#97
First Shot+3.3#77
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#244
Layups/Dunks+3.6#58
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#206
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#117
Freethrows-1.9#302
Improvement+1.0#118
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.3% 22.3% 15.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 1.0% 0.4%
Average Seed 11.6 11.5 11.9
.500 or above 94.4% 96.9% 88.6%
.500 or above in Conference 91.1% 94.7% 82.5%
Conference Champion 24.0% 29.3% 11.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round20.0% 21.9% 15.3%
Second Round4.4% 4.9% 3.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.0% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Home) - 70.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 24 - 54 - 8
Quad 38 - 312 - 12
Quad 48 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 341 Florida A&M W 102-67 97%     1 - 0 +20.5 +10.8 +5.3
  Sat, Nov 8 77 George Washington L 95-99 49%     1 - 1 +3.2 +6.1 -2.2
  Wed, Nov 12 364 Coppin St. W 100-50 99%     2 - 1 +27.8 +19.3 +9.5
  Sun, Nov 16 152 @Kennesaw St. W 108-89 63%     3 - 1 +22.5 +23.4 -3.2
  Wed, Nov 19 55 @Oklahoma St. L 95-103 31%     3 - 2 +4.2 +12.8 -7.5
  Wed, Nov 26 47 Virginia Commonwealth L 66-78 34%     3 - 3 -0.9 -3.7 +3.1
  Thu, Nov 27 145 Western Kentucky W 97-91 OT 71%     4 - 3 +7.1 +2.2 +3.5
  Fri, Nov 28 91 Colorado St. L 68-83 53%     4 - 4 -8.9 -5.3 -3.9
  Thu, Dec 4 33 Utah St. W 74-61 37%     5 - 4 +23.5 +4.7 +18.6
  Wed, Dec 10 169 College of Charleston W 81-75 84%     6 - 4 +2.4 +7.1 -4.6
  Wed, Dec 17 15 @Alabama L 93-104 11%     6 - 5 +9.5 +16.0 -5.3
  Sun, Dec 21 292 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 94-69 93%     7 - 5 +14.9 +11.3 +2.6
  Tue, Jan 6 107 UAB W 84-78 70%    
  Wed, Jan 7 146 @North Texas W 72-69 61%    
  Sat, Jan 10 92 @Tulsa L 81-83 42%    
  Wed, Jan 14 271 East Carolina W 86-70 93%    
  Sun, Jan 18 98 Wichita St. W 78-74 66%    
  Thu, Jan 22 107 @UAB L 81-82 49%    
  Sun, Jan 25 114 Florida Atlantic W 85-78 73%    
  Wed, Jan 28 194 @Tulane W 82-76 71%    
  Sat, Jan 31 151 @Temple W 82-79 63%    
  Wed, Feb 4 287 Texas San Antonio W 87-70 94%    
  Sun, Feb 8 92 Tulsa W 84-80 64%    
  Wed, Feb 11 98 @Wichita St. L 75-77 44%    
  Sun, Feb 15 114 @Florida Atlantic W 82-81 52%    
  Thu, Feb 19 72 Memphis W 80-78 58%    
  Wed, Feb 25 231 @Rice W 80-72 78%    
  Sun, Mar 1 194 Tulane W 85-73 86%    
  Thu, Mar 5 72 @Memphis L 77-81 36%    
  Sun, Mar 8 183 Charlotte W 81-69 85%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.2 7.3 7.0 4.0 1.6 0.3 24.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.2 7.6 4.7 1.1 0.1 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.3 7.2 3.6 0.4 0.0 14.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 6.1 3.5 0.3 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 4.5 3.7 0.6 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.8 0.6 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 2.9 1.0 0.0 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 1.9 1.0 0.1 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.6 7.9 11.5 14.3 16.0 14.8 12.5 8.1 4.0 1.6 0.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.6    1.6 0.0
16-2 98.0% 4.0    3.7 0.3
15-3 86.3% 7.0    5.2 1.8 0.1
14-4 58.4% 7.3    3.3 3.1 0.8 0.1
13-5 21.9% 3.2    0.6 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.0% 24.0 14.7 6.6 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 78.7% 48.3% 30.3% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 58.7%
17-1 1.6% 57.1% 44.9% 12.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 22.1%
16-2 4.0% 43.6% 39.3% 4.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.3 0.2 2.3 7.1%
15-3 8.1% 35.6% 34.2% 1.4% 11.3 0.0 0.1 1.9 0.8 0.0 5.2 2.2%
14-4 12.5% 28.9% 28.5% 0.5% 11.5 0.0 1.8 1.7 0.1 8.9 0.6%
13-5 14.8% 24.4% 24.3% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 1.2 2.3 0.1 0.0 11.2 0.1%
12-6 16.0% 18.4% 18.4% 0.0% 11.9 0.6 2.1 0.3 13.1 0.1%
11-7 14.3% 15.2% 15.2% 0.0% 12.1 0.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 12.1 0.0%
10-8 11.5% 9.8% 9.8% 12.2 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 10.4
9-9 7.9% 7.5% 7.5% 12.4 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 7.3
8-10 4.6% 5.3% 5.3% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.4
7-11 2.5% 3.9% 3.9% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
6-12 1.2% 3.2% 3.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 1.1
5-13 0.5% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.3% 19.6% 0.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 7.4 10.0 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 79.7 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 6.9 2.3 4.7 16.3 18.6 25.6 9.3 18.6 2.3 2.3