Preseason Rankings
Memphis
American Athletic
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.6#51
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.1#32
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#55
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#48
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 1.0% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 3.6% 4.6% 0.8%
Top 6 Seed 8.2% 10.5% 2.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.1% 50.3% 31.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 16.9% 21.0% 7.8%
Average Seed 9.0 8.8 10.1
.500 or above 89.2% 93.1% 78.8%
.500 or above in Conference 94.0% 95.6% 89.7%
Conference Champion 46.9% 51.2% 35.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four3.5% 3.9% 2.5%
First Round43.4% 48.4% 30.2%
Second Round20.6% 24.2% 10.9%
Sweet Sixteen6.7% 8.2% 2.7%
Elite Eight2.4% 3.0% 0.8%
Final Four0.9% 1.1% 0.2%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: San Francisco (Home) - 72.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 5
Quad 25 - 36 - 8
Quad 310 - 216 - 10
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2025 77   San Francisco W 78-72 73%    
  Nov 11, 2025 30   @ Mississippi L 72-78 27%    
  Nov 16, 2025 86   UNLV W 76-69 74%    
  Nov 20, 2025 2   Purdue L 68-81 13%    
  Nov 26, 2025 138   Southern Illinois W 81-69 86%    
  Dec 03, 2025 317   New Orleans W 89-67 98%    
  Dec 06, 2025 24   Baylor L 71-73 45%    
  Dec 13, 2025 10   @ Louisville L 73-83 18%    
  Dec 17, 2025 41   Vanderbilt W 79-78 54%    
  Dec 20, 2025 32   @ Mississippi St. L 73-79 31%    
  Dec 22, 2025 289   Alabama St. W 85-64 96%    
  Dec 31, 2025 88   North Texas W 68-60 75%    
  Jan 03, 2026 172   @ Rice W 77-68 76%    
  Jan 11, 2026 140   @ Florida Atlantic W 80-74 70%    
  Jan 14, 2026 133   Temple W 84-72 84%    
  Jan 18, 2026 168   Texas San Antonio W 85-71 89%    
  Jan 21, 2026 150   @ Tulsa W 77-70 73%    
  Jan 24, 2026 122   @ Wichita St. W 79-74 67%    
  Jan 29, 2026 140   Florida Atlantic W 83-71 84%    
  Feb 01, 2026 115   Tulane W 80-70 81%    
  Feb 05, 2026 103   @ UAB W 80-77 60%    
  Feb 08, 2026 192   Charlotte W 80-64 91%    
  Feb 12, 2026 88   @ North Texas W 65-63 56%    
  Feb 14, 2026 54   @ Utah St. L 76-78 42%    
  Feb 19, 2026 95   @ South Florida W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 22, 2026 103   UAB W 83-74 76%    
  Feb 26, 2026 122   Wichita St. W 82-71 82%    
  Mar 01, 2026 158   @ East Carolina W 76-68 75%    
  Mar 05, 2026 95   South Florida W 80-72 74%    
  Mar 08, 2026 115   @ Tulane W 77-73 64%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 2.9 7.5 11.6 11.8 8.5 4.0 46.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.4 6.1 5.7 2.4 0.6 0.0 18.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.4 4.3 3.1 0.7 0.1 10.9 3rd
4th 0.2 1.6 3.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 7.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 2.4 1.7 0.2 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.7 2.7 4.2 5.9 8.2 10.3 12.5 14.0 14.1 12.4 8.5 4.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.0    4.0
17-1 99.9% 8.5    8.3 0.2
16-2 95.2% 11.8    10.5 1.3 0.0
15-3 82.6% 11.6    8.4 3.0 0.2 0.0
14-4 53.8% 7.5    3.7 3.0 0.7 0.0
13-5 23.6% 2.9    0.8 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 46.9% 46.9 35.7 8.9 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.0% 95.0% 71.3% 23.7% 5.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 82.7%
17-1 8.5% 89.0% 60.9% 28.1% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.9 71.9%
16-2 12.4% 75.8% 51.2% 24.6% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.1 1.5 0.1 0.0 3.0 50.4%
15-3 14.1% 62.9% 45.9% 17.0% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.5 2.8 0.2 5.2 31.4%
14-4 14.0% 46.7% 36.3% 10.5% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.2 0.6 0.0 7.4 16.4%
13-5 12.5% 33.7% 28.7% 5.0% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.4 0.7 0.1 8.3 7.0%
12-6 10.3% 25.5% 22.9% 2.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.7 3.4%
11-7 8.2% 14.5% 14.0% 0.5% 11.6 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.6%
10-8 5.9% 10.1% 9.7% 0.4% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 0.4%
9-9 4.2% 7.0% 7.0% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.9
8-10 2.7% 3.1% 3.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6
7-11 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
6-12 0.8% 3.5% 3.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 45.1% 34.0% 11.2% 9.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.8 3.7 5.6 8.4 12.7 3.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 54.9 16.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.0 25.0 50.0 25.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 3.5 51.7 48.3