Memphis
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +3.9 108
Results Rating +1.8 133
Consistency 0.14 108
Pace 73.8 48
Improvement -5.0 345

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 196 C- A- D C- C-
Defense B 51 B C+ A- D B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 176 C 59% 160 +0.2 171
2 Pt. Jumpers 47% 72 C- 37% 213 +1.1 118
Three Pointers 37% 262 D+ 32% 268 -3.1 284
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 248 C- -1.2 220
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 224
Second Chance B+ 36.3% 30 B 1.15 42 A- 0.42 27
Opponents' Steals D+ 10.6% 292
Other Turnovers D+ 8.2% 294
Turnovers D 18.9% 306
Freethrows C- 0.29 214 C 73% 176 C- 0.21 202
Total Offense C- -1.0 196

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 54% 92 C- 11.9% 236
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 123 C+ 4.3% 128
Three Pointers C+ 86% 136 D 1.6% 326
Total C+ 58% 134 C- 6.2% 249

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 321 C 58% 186 -3.2 76
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 144 B 35% 65 -0.4 160
Three Pointers 46% 47 A- 30% 28 -0.6 154
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 89 B -3.7 45
1st FG Attempt B 0.94 44
Second Chance D+ 32.5% 275 B+ 0.90 28 C+ 0.29 122
Turnovers from Steals A 13.1% 13
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 161
Turnovers A- 20.4% 25
Freethrows D 0.35 302 C 72% 195 D 0.25 296
Total Defense B +4.9 51

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 54% 295 A- 17.2% 28
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 250 B+ 8.4% 38
Three Pointers D+ 87% 283 C- 0.7% 210
Total D+ 60% 288 B 7.8% 41

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.9 45 17.8 268
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 30 0.21 299
Consistency 0.11 64 0.14 290
Improvement -1.6 268 -3.4 328

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 127 110 97
Results Rating Rank 156 130 106
Conference Record 7 - 11 9 - 9 10 - 8
Conference Finish 10 7 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 4% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.8 15.0
.500 or above 7% 10% 1%
.500 or above in Conference 59% 75% 21%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round4% 4% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: East Carolina (Away) - 71.3% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 7
Quad 23 - 63 - 13
Quad 35 - 48 - 17
Quad 47 - 115 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 128 San Francisco W 76 - 70 67% +9  97% 1 - 0 B- +5 D -5 D+ A+ F A +10 C+ B A
 Tue, Nov 11 79 @Mississippi L 77 - 83 27% -5  11% 1 - 1 C+ +4 A- +9 A F A+ D -5 F+ C D
 Sun, Nov 16 121 UNLV L 78 - 92 65% -11  4% 1 - 2 D- -14 F+ -10 F A- F C- -3 D- A+ B-
 Thu, Nov 20 7 Purdue L 71 - 80 6% -1  39% 1 - 3 B+ +12 B- +5 C- A+ C B+ +7 C+ A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 21 71 Wake Forest L 68 - 69 34% +5  82% 1 - 4 B- +7 C- -2 B+ B- F A +9 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 124 Southern Illinois W 74 - 58 66% +11  98% 2 - 4 A- +16 B- +4 C A+ D A+ +12 A+ C+ B-
 Wed, Dec 3 194 New Orleans W 86 - 70 80% +16  97% 3 - 4 B +11 B +6 A+ F F+ B +5 B- A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 46 Baylor W 78 - 71 33% +2  71% 4 - 4 A- +15 C+ +3 D- A+ A A+ +12 A+ B+ A-
 Sat, Dec 13 14 @Louisville L 73 - 99 6% -17  5% 4 - 5 C- -4 B- +5 D A+ B F+ -9 F F B
 Wed, Dec 17 16 Vanderbilt L 70 - 77 OT 14% -3  14% 4 - 6 B +9 F -12 D D- F A+ +22 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 80 @Mississippi St. L 66 - 71 27% -4  7% 4 - 7 B- +5 D -4 F+ A+ F A +10 B A- A+
 Mon, Dec 22 314 Alabama St. W 88 - 67 93% +13  98% 5 - 7 B +9 B- +5 A B- F B- +3 B+ F A-
 Wed, Dec 31 141 North Texas W 57 - 48 71% +8  96% 6 - 7 1 - 0 B- +7 F -13 B- B F A+ +20 A+ B- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 235 @Rice W 76 - 70 69% -1  47% 7 - 7 2 - 0 C+ +5 B- +4 F A+ F C+ +1 B D A-
 Sun, Jan 11 120 @Florida Atlantic L 78 - 89 42% -8  3% 7 - 8 2 - 1 D+ -5 C- -2 B D+ D+ C- -2 C F B-
 Wed, Jan 14 157 Temple W 55 - 53 75% +4  75% 8 - 8 3 - 1 C -1 F -19 F C D+ A+ +18 A+ B- A+
 Sun, Jan 18 335 Texas San Antonio W 95 - 69 95% +12  98% 9 - 8 4 - 1 B+ +11 B+ +9 A+ D+ C- C+ +1 D+ B- A+
 Wed, Jan 21 65 @Tulsa L 66 - 83 23% -3  21% 9 - 9 4 - 2 D+ -5 D+ -3 F+ A- F D+ -3 A+ D- D-
 Sat, Jan 24 92 @Wichita St. L 59 - 74 31% -13  5% 9 - 10 4 - 3 D+ -6 F -13 F A- F A- +7 C- B B+
 Thu, Jan 29 120 Florida Atlantic W 92 - 65 65% +12  95% 10 - 10 5 - 3 A+ +27 B+ +8 B+ A+ C A+ +16 A+ B- A+
 Sun, Feb 1 182 Tulane L 76 - 78 78% -5  5% 10 - 11 5 - 4 D+ -6 C -0 F B- B- D -6 F B- A-
 Thu, Feb 5 112 @UAB W 90 - 80 41% +8  87% 11 - 11 6 - 4 A- +16 B+ +8 A- B D- A- +7 B+ D A
 Sun, Feb 8 171 Charlotte W 77 - 54 77% +15  99% 12 - 11 7 - 4 A +19 D+ -3 F+ A+ C A+ +22 A+ B- A
 Thu, Feb 12 141 @North Texas L 69 - 76 48% +0  54% 12 - 12 7 - 5 C- -3 C +1 D A D+ D+ -3 C+ F A
 Sat, Feb 14 33 @Utah St. L 75 - 99 11% -9  17% 12 - 13 D+ -7 B- +5 F A+ A F -11 D C D
 Thu, Feb 19 54 @South Florida L 66 - 87 20% -11  16% 12 - 14 7 - 6 D+ -8 D+ -3 F C- C+ D -5 B B- C-
 Sun, Feb 22 112 UAB L 67 - 78 64% -9  13% 12 - 15 7 - 7 D -11 F+ -9 C- B F C- -2 D- A+ A
 Thu, Feb 26 92 Wichita St. L 82 - 88 54% -3  18% 12 - 16 7 - 8 C- -3 B +7 A- D+ A+ F -10 B- D+ F+
 Sun, Mar 1 248 @East Carolina W 77 - 71 71%
 Thu, Mar 5 54 South Florida L 77 - 80 38%
 Sun, Mar 8 182 @Tulane W 74 - 72 58%
Totals 14 - 17 9 - 9 +4 C- -1 D+ C- C- B +5 D+ C C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C C- D+ C- 39% 47% 37% C- C- B+ B A- D C- C C- B C B A- B 33% 22% 46% B- B D+ B+ C+ A- D C D
1.07 59% 37% 32% -1 0 0.99 36% 1.1 .42 19% .29 73% .21 1.02 58% 35% 30% -4 0 0.94 32% 0.9 .29 20% .35 72% .21
Nov
8		 San Francisco D D+ F B C- 33% 26% 41% D+ D+ A+ A A+ F A+ F B A F A+ C- C 23% 17% 60% B+ C+ B+ C- B A F A D
1.03 53% 25% 37% -3 -1 0.93 40% 1.3 .52 19% .43 54% .23 0.94 73% 13% 36% +1 -1 1.02 27% 1.1 .30 20% .42 64% .27
Nov
11		 Mississippi A- A+ B+ A- A+ 31% 35% 35% D- A C- F F A+ C+ C C+ D F+ C- F F 23% 52% 25% A+ F+ A F C D F A+ F
1.14 69% 44% 39% +8 -2 1.13 26% 0.7 .18 10% .33 70% .23 1.23 73% 40% 58% +14 -5 1.19 23% 1.4 .32 10% .54 64% .35
Nov
16		 UNLV F+ B+ F F F 44% 27% 29% C- F C+ A+ A- F A+ A A+ C- F F+ A D- 44% 11% 45% F+ D- D+ A+ A+ B- D F F
0.98 65% 14% 20% -9 0 0.83 31% 1.5 .44 23% .49 80% .39 1.15 83% 50% 28% +8 +2 1.22 34% 0.5 .16 18% .40 81% .32
Nov
20		 Purdue B- C+ D F D 43% 24% 33% A- C- A+ B A+ C A+ C+ A+ B+ F+ A- F+ C+ 29% 22% 49% C+ C+ D- A+ A+ A- A+ F A-
1.05 59% 33% 24% -6 0 0.90 39% 1.1 .45 18% .45 68% .31 1.18 75% 33% 41% +9 -1 1.18 42% 0.6 .24 16% .19 82% .16
Nov
21		 Wake Forest C- A F B+ A- 30% 14% 56% C B+ A+ F B- F B+ F C A D+ A+ A+ A+ 22% 22% 55% A A+ F D- F A+ D B- D+
1.01 69% 17% 38% +3 0 1.09 43% 0.8 .35 25% .36 61% .22 1.03 64% 27% 26% -8 -1 0.84 42% 1.3 .53 21% .36 74% .26
Nov
26		 Southern Illinois B- D+ F+ B- C 39% 20% 41% C+ C B+ A+ A+ D A A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 37% 44% 19% A+ A+ F A+ C+ B- F A F
1.06 53% 30% 35% -3 0 0.96 34% 1.4 .49 21% .36 80% .29 0.83 56% 21% 13% -14 -3 0.67 38% 0.7 .27 19% .58 61% .35
Dec
3		 New Orleans B B- A+ A+ A+ 38% 19% 43% C- A+ A- F F F+ F D+ F B D A+ B- B- 37% 21% 42% C- B- D+ A+ A+ C- C B C+
1.22 60% 70% 43% +13 0 1.28 43% 0.5 .23 18% .24 71% .17 1.00 63% 18% 32% -4 0 0.94 38% 0.5 .20 18% .37 71% .26
Dec
6		 Baylor C+ D C+ F F 44% 31% 25% A D- A+ A- A+ A A+ C+ A+ A+ A- A+ A- A+ 26% 26% 48% C- A+ D A+ B+ A- F B+ F+
1.10 54% 41% 14% -8 -1 0.84 41% 1.2 .48 13% .40 76% .31 1.00 54% 23% 29% -8 -2 0.82 42% 0.8 .35 18% .43 68% .29
Dec
13		 Louisville B- C F D D+ 35% 47% 18% F D A+ A+ A+ B B+ C- B F+ F A+ F F 29% 10% 61% A- F B- F F B F D- F
1.02 55% 26% 30% -8 -4 0.79 38% 1.3 .50 15% .33 70% .23 1.38 86% 0% 50% +19 +1 1.41 32% 1.5 .48 18% .43 84% .36
Dec
17		 Vanderbilt F C- D+ F D 37% 29% 35% C- D C F D- F A- B- A- A+ A D+ A+ A+ 29% 24% 47% A A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F C+ F
0.82 53% 33% 22% -9 -1 0.81 27% 0.6 .17 23% .40 77% .30 0.90 50% 42% 22% -10 -1 0.80 35% 0.7 .23 23% .61 78% .47
Dec
20		 Mississippi St. D F+ F F F 25% 24% 51% C+ F+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ D- B- A D B+ A A- 39% 20% 41% D B B- A+ A- A+ F C F
0.94 46% 25% 27% -12 -1 0.76 41% 1.3 .54 26% .31 69% .21 1.01 67% 33% 26% -2 0 0.98 30% 0.8 .24 21% .45 68% .31
Dec
22		 Alabama St. B- A+ C+ A+ A+ 30% 15% 56% D+ A A+ F+ B- F D F F B- D D+ A+ B 20% 35% 45% A+ B+ F C+ F A- F A+ D
1.21 75% 38% 43% +13 0 1.28 45% 0.9 .42 25% .33 61% .20 0.92 60% 39% 22% -8 -3 0.80 43% 0.8 .36 22% .39 59% .23
Dec
31		 North Texas F B A+ F B- 39% 24% 37% C B- B+ C B F D F F A+ B- C A+ A+ 52% 13% 35% D- A+ A D- B- A+ A+ A A+
0.86 63% 50% 27% +1 0 1.02 38% 1.0 .38 30% .32 27% .09 0.72 54% 33% 6% -17 +2 0.72 26% 1.1 .29 27% .17 63% .10
Jan
3		 Rice B- B F F F 37% 34% 29% C- F A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ C+ F+ A+ B+ A- 22% 12% 66% F B D+ D D A- F F+ F
1.16 67% 14% 25% -9 -2 0.80 45% 1.8 .83 23% .60 87% .52 1.07 67% 0% 30% -7 0 0.88 38% 1.0 .38 21% .59 77% .45
Jan
11		 Florida Atlantic C- F+ B- A+ B- 46% 9% 46% B+ B F A+ D+ D+ D- F F C- F F A+ D+ 30% 28% 42% A C D- F F B- B B- B
1.00 46% 40% 42% 0 +2 1.07 14% 1.6 .22 18% .25 63% .16 1.14 71% 56% 25% +3 -2 1.05 37% 1.4 .50 19% .25 69% .17
Jan
14		 Temple F F C F F 50% 10% 40% A F C- B- C D+ D+ F F+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 43% 16% 41% D- A+ F+ A+ B- A+ C- D D+
0.85 36% 40% 25% -16 +2 0.74 28% 1.1 .31 17% .28 60% .17 0.82 32% 86% 11% -18 +1 0.68 35% 0.7 .24 22% .38 79% .30
Jan
18		 Texas San Antonio B+ B- A+ A+ A+ 56% 13% 31% A- A+ C+ F+ D+ C- B- D- C C+ C+ F A D 30% 21% 48% B- D+ D- A B- A+ A B+ A
1.31 63% 57% 53% +14 +2 1.35 39% 0.9 .35 17% .30 67% .20 0.95 53% 58% 26% -3 -1 0.95 35% 0.7 .25 23% .16 67% .11
Jan
21		 Tulsa D+ C F F F 37% 18% 45% C+ F+ A+ D+ A- F C+ C C+ D+ A+ A C- A+ 40% 16% 44% B+ A+ F B+ D- D- F F+ F
1.00 58% 22% 26% -8 0 0.86 38% 1.1 .40 23% .28 71% .20 1.26 41% 29% 37% -6 +1 0.91 42% 1.1 .47 12% .62 86% .54
Jan
24		 Wichita St. F C C F F 27% 35% 37% D F D+ A+ A- F F B D- A- D- B C+ D+ 39% 21% 39% C C- A D B B+ A+ B+ A+
0.82 57% 39% 16% -10 -3 0.76 24% 1.6 .38 24% .20 73% .15 1.03 64% 33% 32% 0 0 1.02 31% 1.1 .33 18% .14 63% .08
Jan
29		 Florida Atlantic B+ B- A+ B- A- 46% 31% 24% D- B+ A A+ A+ C C- A+ B+ A+ A+ C B A+ 37% 16% 47% C- A+ F A+ B- A+ F C+ F
1.18 59% 50% 36% +5 -1 1.10 36% 1.3 .45 17% .29 89% .26 0.84 38% 43% 30% -10 0 0.84 41% 0.8 .31 31% .73 69% .50
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Tulane C C B- F F 35% 26% 39% D F A D B- B- A+ A+ A+ D C F F F 41% 9% 50% F F A F B- A- F C F
1.10 56% 42% 17% -10 -1 0.80 43% 0.9 .38 16% .65 84% .55 1.13 58% 50% 39% +5 +2 1.15 14% 1.5 .21 19% .46 77% .36
Feb
5		 UAB B+ A+ B A+ A+ 28% 39% 33% F A- C+ A B D- A B- A A- F A+ A+ A- 26% 15% 58% C B+ D+ D+ D A F A+ F
1.13 75% 41% 42% +10 -3 1.16 28% 1.1 .31 20% .33 76% .25 1.00 79% 13% 23% -8 0 0.85 35% 1.1 .37 16% .52 60% .31
Feb
8		 Charlotte D+ C+ F+ F D- 34% 32% 34% F+ F+ B- A+ A+ C C- B- C A+ B F A+ A+ 22% 22% 56% A+ A+ A+ F B- A A+ A+ A+
1.11 61% 29% 28% -5 -2 0.89 33% 1.8 .61 14% .30 72% .22 0.78 55% 55% 18% -11 -1 0.78 22% 1.3 .27 23% .17 56% .09
Feb
12		 North Texas C C+ F C D 36% 32% 32% D D B- A+ A D+ F A+ C- D+ B- D+ A B- 49% 21% 31% C C+ F F+ F A F D- F
1.00 59% 20% 33% -6 -2 0.87 34% 1.3 .46 23% .28 87% .25 1.10 53% 38% 25% -7 +1 0.90 42% 1.2 .48 22% .76 76% .58
Feb
14		 Utah St. B- C- F F F 32% 32% 36% D- F A+ A A+ A A+ A A+ F F A+ D+ D 42% 10% 48% C D C C C D F D F
1.05 53% 20% 24% -13 -2 0.72 44% 1.2 .51 17% .57 79% .45 1.38 76% 20% 38% +8 +2 1.22 36% 1.2 .42 13% .57 75% .43
Feb
19		 South Florida D+ F B- C- F 31% 29% 40% D F B+ F C- C+ B B+ B+ D A+ D- C- B- 40% 14% 46% B+ B F A+ B- C- F F F
0.94 25% 40% 33% -10 -2 0.79 36% 0.7 .26 19% .35 75% .26 1.24 40% 43% 35% -6 +1 0.92 50% 0.8 .41 14% .58 86% .50
Feb
22		 UAB F+ D A+ F C- 41% 27% 31% C- C- C+ A B F C F D+ C- C F C- D- 42% 25% 34% C D- C A+ A+ A F C- F
0.93 52% 57% 25% -1 -1 0.98 28% 1.1 .31 21% .25 64% .16 1.09 59% 46% 33% +2 0 1.06 32% 0.5 .18 17% .42 72% .30
Feb
26		 Wichita St. B B A+ C A+ 23% 55% 21% F A- F+ A D+ A+ C- A C+ F F C- A+ C 30% 38% 32% A+ B- F B- D+ F+ F F F
1.14 62% 55% 33% +10 -6 1.11 19% 1.2 .22 10% .26 76% .20 1.22 75% 40% 18% -2 -3 0.92 46% 0.9 .44 11% .52 79% .41



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 2.6 2.6 4th
5th 5.8 12.7 18.5 5th
6th 0.0 19.7 2.0 21.7 6th
7th 1.3 13.5 0.0 14.8 7th
8th 8.2 2.8 11.0 8th
9th 0.9 15.2 0.2 16.2 9th
10th 7.1 7.7 14.7 10th
11th 0.5 0.5 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 8.5 32.4 41.9 17.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 17.2% 6.4% 6.4% 12.6 0.4 0.6 0.1 16.1
9-9 41.9% 3.6% 3.6% 14.1 0.3 0.9 0.4 40.4
8-10 32.4% 3.1% 3.1% 15.1 0.9 0.1 31.4
7-11 8.5% 3.1% 3.1% 15.8 0.1 0.2 8.2
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 14.0 96.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 12.6 40.0 55.5 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.2%
Lose Out 3.2%