Memphis
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.7#72
Expected Predictive Rating+4.4#105
Pace73.5#72
Improvement+1.4#98

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#128
First Shot-1.4#211
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#32
Layup/Dunks+4.1#48
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#348
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#244
Freethrows-0.3#203
Improvement-1.7#308

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#34
First Shot+6.0#30
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#174
Layups/Dunks+3.5#60
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#1
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#181
Freethrows-0.9#247
Improvement+3.1#18
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.3% 26.5% 19.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% 1.2% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.6 11.5 12.0
.500 or above 86.0% 89.3% 71.3%
.500 or above in Conference 95.0% 96.8% 86.9%
Conference Champion 32.9% 36.5% 16.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
First Round25.0% 26.2% 19.5%
Second Round5.9% 6.3% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.4% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Texas (Home) - 81.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 6
Quad 23 - 54 - 10
Quad 38 - 312 - 13
Quad 47 - 119 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 95 San Francisco W 76-70 68%     1 - 0 +8.8 -0.6 +9.1
  Tue, Nov 11 63 @Mississippi L 77-83 36%     1 - 1 +5.5 +13.2 -8.0
  Sun, Nov 16 133 UNLV L 78-92 80%     1 - 2 -15.3 -5.6 -7.9
  Thu, Nov 20 5 Purdue L 71-80 10%     1 - 3 +12.8 +8.7 +3.7
  Fri, Nov 21 61 Wake Forest L 68-69 46%     1 - 4 +7.8 +2.6 +5.2
  Wed, Nov 26 130 Southern Illinois W 74-58 80%     2 - 4 +15.0 +1.6 +13.4
  Wed, Dec 3 241 New Orleans W 86-70 92%     3 - 4 +8.4 +7.7 +0.6
  Sat, Dec 6 27 Baylor W 78-71 35%     4 - 4 +18.8 +6.2 +12.5
  Sat, Dec 13 13 @Louisville L 73-99 11%     4 - 5 -5.1 +6.6 -11.1
  Wed, Dec 17 9 Vanderbilt L 70-77 OT 19%     4 - 6 +10.1 -8.5 +19.9
  Sat, Dec 20 80 @Mississippi St. L 66-71 41%     4 - 7 +4.9 -2.2 +7.1
  Mon, Dec 22 281 Alabama St. W 88-67 94%     5 - 7 +11.5 +5.2 +5.5
  Wed, Dec 31 146 North Texas W 70-60 82%    
  Sat, Jan 3 231 @Rice W 76-67 80%    
  Sun, Jan 11 114 @Florida Atlantic W 77-76 55%    
  Wed, Jan 14 151 Temple W 80-70 83%    
  Sun, Jan 18 287 Texas San Antonio W 82-65 95%    
  Wed, Jan 21 92 @Tulsa L 76-77 45%    
  Sat, Jan 24 98 @Wichita St. L 71-72 47%    
  Thu, Jan 29 114 Florida Atlantic W 80-73 75%    
  Sun, Feb 1 194 Tulane W 80-67 88%    
  Thu, Feb 5 107 @UAB W 76-75 52%    
  Sun, Feb 8 183 Charlotte W 76-64 87%    
  Thu, Feb 12 146 @North Texas W 67-63 63%    
  Sat, Feb 14 33 @Utah St. L 70-79 21%    
  Thu, Feb 19 79 @South Florida L 78-80 42%    
  Sun, Feb 22 107 UAB W 79-72 72%    
  Thu, Feb 26 98 Wichita St. W 74-69 68%    
  Sun, Mar 1 271 @East Carolina W 78-67 84%    
  Thu, Mar 5 79 South Florida W 81-77 64%    
  Sun, Mar 8 194 @Tulane W 77-70 74%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.8 9.0 9.9 6.3 2.7 0.6 32.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.3 8.8 5.6 1.6 0.1 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.8 7.0 3.9 0.6 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.5 5.2 3.3 0.3 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.4 3.1 0.4 7.5 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 2.7 0.7 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 1.9 0.7 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.7 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.8 5.4 8.6 12.3 15.5 16.8 15.2 11.6 6.4 2.7 0.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 2.7    2.7 0.0
16-2 97.9% 6.3    5.7 0.6
15-3 85.8% 9.9    7.2 2.5 0.2
14-4 59.3% 9.0    4.3 3.8 0.8 0.1
13-5 22.4% 3.8    0.8 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.0
12-6 3.7% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.9% 32.9 21.4 8.6 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 69.9% 50.0% 19.9% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 39.8%
17-1 2.7% 56.0% 47.0% 9.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.1 1.2 17.1%
16-2 6.4% 45.9% 42.8% 3.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.0 0.5 0.0 3.5 5.5%
15-3 11.6% 37.2% 36.1% 1.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.6 1.5 0.0 7.3 1.7%
14-4 15.2% 30.7% 30.4% 0.2% 11.5 0.1 2.1 2.4 0.1 10.5 0.3%
13-5 16.8% 26.8% 26.8% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 1.3 2.9 0.2 0.0 12.3 0.1%
12-6 15.5% 22.0% 22.0% 0.0% 11.9 0.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 12.1 0.1%
11-7 12.3% 16.4% 16.4% 12.3 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.1 10.3
10-8 8.6% 10.6% 10.6% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.7
9-9 5.4% 6.9% 6.9% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.0
8-10 2.8% 6.1% 6.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.6
7-11 1.3% 3.6% 3.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 1.3
6-12 0.5% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5
5-13 0.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.3% 24.5% 0.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 9.7 11.2 2.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 74.7 1.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.7 21.2 27.3 21.2 21.2 9.1