Memphis
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +5.5 93
Expected Predictive Rating +3.4 109
Pace 74.2 46
Improvement -2.9 299

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 175 C- A- D C- C-
Defense B+ 39 B C+ A- D+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 159 C+ 60% 124 +1.1 136
2 Pt. Jumpers 46% 84 D 34% 302 +0.2 166
Three Pointers 37% 258 C- 32% 244 -2.7 272
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.3 237 C- -1.0 210
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 213
Second Chance B+ 36.9% 29 B+ 1.16 37 A- 0.43 21
Turnovers D 19.2% 316
Freethrows C- 0.30 218 C 72% 179 C- 0.22 201
Total Offense C -0.5 175

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 318 C 58% 191 -3.2 77
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 166 B+ 33% 24 -1.0 113
Three Pointers 46% 39 A- 29% 22 -0.4 158
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.4 97 B+ -4.1 43
1st FG Attempt B 0.93 45
Second Chance C- 31.9% 238 B 0.92 41 C+ 0.29 121
Turnovers A- 20.8% 17
Freethrows D+ 0.34 289 C+ 71% 116 D+ 0.24 264
Total Defense B+ +5.9 39

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.9 49 17.7 259
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 33 0.20 292
Improvement -1.7 #277 -1.3 #258

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11% 14% 10%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.0 12.7
.500 or above 61% 83% 53%
.500 or above in Conference 94% 99% 92%
Conference Champion 5% 17% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round11% 14% 10%
Second Round1% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: South Florida (Away) - 27.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 6
Quad 23 - 63 - 12
Quad 37 - 310 - 15
Quad 47 - 117 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 113 San Francisco W 76 - 70 70% +9  97% 1 - 0 B- +6 D -5 D+ A+ F A+ +11 C+ B A
 Tue, Nov 11 74 @Mississippi L 77 - 83 31% -5  11% 1 - 1 C+ +5 A- +10 A F A+ D -5 F+ C D
 Sun, Nov 16 123 UNLV L 78 - 92 71% -11  4% 1 - 2 D- -14 F+ -9 F A- F D+ -4 F+ A+ C+
 Thu, Nov 20 8 Purdue L 71 - 80 8% -1  39% 1 - 3 B+ +12 B +6 C A+ C B+ +6 C+ A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 21 62 Wake Forest L 68 - 69 38% +5  82% 1 - 4 B- +8 C- -1 B+ B- F A +8 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 128 Southern Illinois W 74 - 58 73% +11  98% 2 - 4 A- +15 C+ +2 C A+ D A+ +13 A+ C+ B
 Wed, Dec 3 214 New Orleans W 86 - 70 85% +16  97% 3 - 4 B +10 B +6 A+ F D- B +4 B- A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 43 Baylor W 78 - 71 35% +2  71% 4 - 4 A- +16 B- +4 D- A+ A A+ +13 A+ A- A-
 Sat, Dec 13 10 @Louisville L 73 - 99 6% -17  5% 4 - 5 C- -3 B +5 D A+ B F+ -8 F F B
 Wed, Dec 17 12 Vanderbilt L 70 - 77 OT 16% -3  14% 4 - 6 B +9 F -12 D D- F+ A+ +22 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 75 @Mississippi St. L 66 - 71 31% -4  7% 4 - 7 B- +6 D+ -3 D- A+ F A +9 B B+ A+
 Mon, Dec 22 306 Alabama St. W 88 - 67 93% +13  98% 5 - 7 B +9 B- +5 A B- F B- +3 B+ F+ B+
 Wed, Dec 31 130 North Texas W 57 - 48 74% +8  96% 6 - 7 1 - 0 B- +8 F -11 B B- F A+ +19 A+ B- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 230 @Rice W 76 - 70 73% -1  47% 7 - 7 2 - 0 B- +5 B- +4 F A+ F C+ +2 B D+ A-
 Sun, Jan 11 115 @Florida Atlantic L 78 - 89 47% -8  3% 7 - 8 2 - 1 D+ -5 C- -2 B D+ D+ C- -2 C F B-
 Wed, Jan 14 150 Temple W 55 - 53 78% +4  75% 8 - 8 3 - 1 C -1 F -18 F C D A+ +18 A+ B- A+
 Sun, Jan 18 336 Texas San Antonio W 95 - 69 96% +12  98% 9 - 8 4 - 1 B+ +11 B+ +9 A+ D+ C- B- +2 D+ C+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 76 @Tulsa L 66 - 83 31% -3  21% 9 - 9 4 - 2 D+ -6 D+ -4 F+ A- F D+ -4 A+ D- D-
 Sat, Jan 24 95 @Wichita St. L 59 - 74 39% -13  5% 9 - 10 4 - 3 D+ -7 F -13 F A- F B+ +6 C- B B+
 Thu, Jan 29 115 Florida Atlantic W 92 - 65 70% +12  95% 10 - 10 5 - 3 A+ +27 B+ +8 B+ A+ C A+ +17 A+ B+ A+
 Sun, Feb 1 172 Tulane L 76 - 78 81% -5  5% 10 - 11 5 - 4 D+ -6 C +1 F B- B D -6 F C+ A-
 Thu, Feb 5 125 @UAB W 90 - 80 50% +8  87% 11 - 11 6 - 4 A- +16 B+ +8 A- B D- A- +7 B D+ A
 Sun, Feb 8 184 Charlotte W 77 - 54 83% +15  99% 12 - 11 7 - 4 A +18 D+ -3 F+ A+ C A+ +22 A+ B- A-
 Thu, Feb 12 130 @North Texas L 69 - 76 52% +0  54% 12 - 12 7 - 5 C- -2 C+ +2 D+ A C D+ -4 C+ F A-
 Sat, Feb 14 32 @Utah St. L 75 - 99 13% -9  17% 12 - 13 D+ -6 B- +5 F A+ A F -11 D C+ D
 Thu, Feb 19 61 @South Florida L 76 - 82 28%
 Sun, Feb 22 125 UAB W 77 - 71 71%
 Thu, Feb 26 95 Wichita St. W 73 - 70 61%
 Sun, Mar 1 245 @East Carolina W 77 - 70 74%
 Thu, Mar 5 61 South Florida L 78 - 79 49%
 Sun, Mar 8 172 @Tulane W 73 - 70 61%
Totals 15 - 16 10 - 8 +5 C +0 A- C- C- B+ +6 C- C C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ D C- C- 39% 46% 37% C- C- B+ B+ A- D C- C C- B+ C B+ A- B+ 33% 21% 46% B- B C- B C+ A- D+ C+ D+
1.08 60% 34% 32% -1 0 0.99 37% 1.2 .43 19% .30 72% .22 1.00 58% 33% 29% -4 0 0.93 32% 0.9 .29 21% .34 71% .21
Nov
8		 San Francisco D D+ F B C- 33% 26% 41% D+ D+ A+ A A+ F A+ F B A+ F A+ C- C+ 23% 17% 60% B+ C+ A- C B A F A D
1.03 53% 25% 37% -3 -1 0.93 40% 1.3 .52 19% .43 54% .23 0.94 73% 13% 36% +1 -1 1.02 27% 1.1 .30 20% .42 64% .27
Nov
11		 Mississippi A- A+ B+ A- A+ 31% 35% 35% D- A D+ F F A+ C+ C+ C+ D F+ C- F F 23% 52% 25% A+ F+ A F C D F A+ F
1.14 69% 44% 39% +8 -2 1.13 26% 0.7 .18 10% .33 70% .23 1.23 73% 40% 58% +14 -5 1.19 23% 1.4 .32 10% .54 64% .35
Nov
16		 UNLV F+ B+ F F F 44% 27% 29% C- F C+ A+ A- F A+ A A+ D+ F F+ A D- 44% 11% 45% F+ F+ C- A+ A+ C+ D+ F F
0.98 65% 14% 20% -9 0 0.83 31% 1.5 .44 23% .49 80% .39 1.15 83% 50% 28% +8 +2 1.22 34% 0.5 .16 18% .40 81% .32
Nov
20		 Purdue B C+ D F D+ 43% 24% 33% B+ C A+ B- A+ C A+ C+ A+ B+ F+ A- F+ C+ 29% 22% 49% C+ C+ D- A+ A+ A- A F A-
1.05 59% 33% 24% -6 0 0.90 39% 1.1 .45 18% .45 68% .31 1.18 75% 33% 41% +9 -1 1.18 42% 0.6 .24 16% .19 82% .16
Nov
21		 Wake Forest C- A F B+ A- 30% 14% 56% C B+ A+ F B- F B+ F C- A D+ A+ A+ A+ 22% 22% 55% A A+ F D+ F A+ D B D+
1.01 69% 17% 38% +3 0 1.09 43% 0.8 .35 25% .36 61% .22 1.03 64% 27% 26% -8 -1 0.84 42% 1.3 .53 21% .36 74% .26
Nov
26		 Southern Illinois C+ D+ F B- C 39% 20% 41% C+ C B+ A+ A+ D A A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 37% 44% 19% A+ A+ F A+ C+ B F A F
1.06 53% 30% 35% -3 0 0.96 34% 1.4 .49 21% .36 80% .29 0.83 56% 21% 13% -14 -3 0.67 38% 0.7 .27 19% .58 61% .35
Dec
3		 New Orleans B B- A+ A+ A+ 38% 19% 43% C- A+ A- F F D- F D+ F B D- A+ B- B- 37% 21% 42% C- B- D+ A+ A+ C- C B C+
1.22 60% 70% 43% +13 0 1.28 43% 0.5 .23 18% .24 71% .17 1.00 63% 18% 32% -4 0 0.94 38% 0.5 .20 18% .37 71% .26
Dec
6		 Baylor B- D+ C+ F F 44% 31% 25% A D- A+ A A+ A A+ C+ A+ A+ A- A+ A- A+ 26% 26% 48% C- A+ D+ A+ A- A- F A- D-
1.10 54% 41% 14% -8 -1 0.84 41% 1.2 .48 13% .40 76% .31 1.00 54% 23% 29% -8 -2 0.82 42% 0.8 .35 18% .43 68% .29
Dec
13		 Louisville B C F+ D C- 35% 47% 18% F D A+ A+ A+ B B C- B F+ F A+ F F 29% 10% 61% A- F B F F B F F+ F
1.02 55% 26% 30% -8 -4 0.79 38% 1.3 .50 15% .33 70% .23 1.38 86% 0% 50% +19 +1 1.41 32% 1.5 .48 18% .43 84% .36
Dec
17		 Vanderbilt F C- D+ F D 37% 29% 35% C- D C F D- F+ A- B- A- A+ A D+ A+ A+ 29% 24% 47% A A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F C+ F
0.82 53% 33% 22% -9 -1 0.81 27% 0.6 .17 23% .40 77% .30 0.90 50% 42% 22% -10 -1 0.80 35% 0.7 .23 23% .61 78% .47
Dec
20		 Mississippi St. D+ F+ F F+ F+ 25% 24% 51% C+ D- A+ A+ A+ F B D- B- A D B+ A B+ 39% 20% 41% D+ B B- A B+ A+ F C+ F
0.94 46% 25% 27% -11 -1 0.76 41% 1.3 .54 26% .31 69% .21 1.01 67% 33% 26% -2 0 0.98 30% 0.8 .24 21% .45 68% .31
Dec
22		 Alabama St. B- A+ C+ A+ A+ 30% 15% 56% D+ A A+ F+ B- F D+ F F B- D D+ A+ B 20% 35% 45% A+ B+ F C F+ B+ F A+ D
1.21 75% 38% 43% +13 0 1.28 45% 0.9 .42 25% .33 61% .20 0.92 60% 39% 22% -8 -3 0.80 43% 0.8 .36 22% .39 59% .23
Dec
31		 North Texas F B A+ F B 39% 24% 37% C B B C B- F D F F A+ B- C A+ A+ 52% 13% 35% D- A+ A D- B- A+ A+ A A+
0.86 63% 50% 27% +1 0 1.02 38% 1.0 .38 30% .32 27% .09 0.72 54% 33% 6% -17 +2 0.72 26% 1.1 .29 27% .17 63% .10
Jan
3		 Rice B- B F F F 37% 34% 29% C- F A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ C+ F+ A+ B+ A- 22% 12% 66% F B C- D D+ A- F F F
1.16 67% 14% 25% -9 -2 0.80 45% 1.8 .83 23% .60 87% .52 1.07 67% 0% 30% -7 0 0.88 38% 1.0 .38 21% .59 77% .45
Jan
11		 Florida Atlantic C- F+ B- A+ B- 46% 9% 46% B+ B F A+ D+ D+ D- F F C- F F A+ D+ 30% 28% 42% A C D F F B- B+ B- B+
1.00 46% 40% 42% 0 +2 1.07 14% 1.6 .22 18% .25 63% .16 1.14 71% 56% 25% +3 -2 1.05 37% 1.4 .50 19% .25 69% .17
Jan
14		 Temple F F C+ F F 50% 10% 40% A F C- C+ C D C- F D- A+ A+ F A+ A+ 43% 16% 41% D- A+ F+ A+ B- A+ C- D+ D+
0.85 36% 40% 25% -16 +2 0.74 28% 1.1 .31 17% .28 60% .17 0.82 32% 86% 11% -18 +1 0.68 35% 0.7 .24 22% .38 79% .30
Jan
18		 Texas San Antonio B+ B- A+ A+ A+ 56% 13% 31% B+ A+ C+ F+ D+ C- B- D- C+ B- C+ F A D 30% 21% 48% B- D+ D- A- C+ A+ A+ B+ A
1.31 63% 57% 53% +14 +2 1.35 39% 0.9 .35 17% .30 67% .20 0.95 53% 58% 26% -3 -1 0.95 35% 0.7 .25 23% .16 67% .11
Jan
21		 Tulsa D+ C F F F 37% 18% 45% C+ F+ A C- A- F C C- C D+ A+ A C- A+ 40% 16% 44% B+ A+ F B+ D- D- F F+ F
1.00 58% 22% 26% -8 0 0.86 38% 1.1 .40 23% .28 71% .20 1.26 41% 29% 37% -6 +1 0.91 42% 1.1 .47 12% .62 86% .54
Jan
24		 Wichita St. F C C F F 27% 35% 37% D- F D+ A+ A- F F B D- B+ D- B C+ D+ 39% 21% 39% C+ C- A D+ B B+ A+ B+ A+
0.82 57% 39% 16% -10 -3 0.76 24% 1.6 .38 24% .20 73% .15 1.03 64% 33% 32% 0 0 1.02 31% 1.1 .33 18% .14 63% .08
Jan
29		 Florida Atlantic B+ B- A+ C+ A- 46% 31% 24% D- B+ A A+ A+ C C- A+ B+ A+ A+ C B A+ 37% 16% 47% C- A+ F A+ B+ A+ F B- F
1.18 59% 50% 36% +5 -1 1.10 36% 1.3 .45 17% .29 89% .26 0.84 38% 43% 30% -10 0 0.84 41% 0.8 .31 31% .73 69% .50
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Tulane C C B F F 35% 26% 39% D F A D+ B- B A+ A+ A+ D C F F F 41% 9% 50% F F A F C+ A- F C F
1.10 56% 42% 17% -10 -1 0.80 43% 0.9 .38 16% .65 84% .55 1.13 58% 50% 39% +5 +2 1.15 14% 1.5 .21 19% .46 77% .36
Feb
5		 UAB B+ A+ B A+ A+ 28% 39% 33% F A- C+ A B D- A B- A A- F A+ A+ B+ 26% 15% 58% C B D+ C- D+ A F A+ F
1.13 75% 41% 42% +10 -3 1.16 28% 1.1 .31 20% .33 76% .25 1.00 79% 13% 23% -8 0 0.85 35% 1.1 .37 16% .52 60% .31
Feb
8		 Charlotte D+ C+ F+ F D- 34% 32% 34% F+ F+ B- A+ A+ C D+ C+ C- A+ B F A+ A+ 22% 22% 56% A+ A+ A+ F B- A- A+ A+ A+
1.11 61% 29% 28% -5 -2 0.89 33% 1.8 .61 14% .30 72% .22 0.78 55% 55% 18% -11 -1 0.78 22% 1.3 .27 23% .17 56% .09
Feb
12		 North Texas C+ C+ F C D+ 36% 32% 32% D- D+ C+ A+ A C F A+ C- D+ B- D+ A C+ 49% 21% 31% C+ C+ F F+ F A- F D- F
1.00 59% 20% 33% -6 -2 0.87 34% 1.3 .46 23% .28 87% .25 1.10 53% 38% 25% -7 +1 0.90 42% 1.2 .48 22% .76 76% .58
Feb
14		 Utah St. B- C- F F F 32% 32% 36% D- F A+ B+ A+ A A+ A A+ F F A+ D+ D 42% 10% 48% C D C B- C+ D F D+ F
1.05 53% 20% 24% -13 -2 0.72 44% 1.2 .51 17% .57 79% .45 1.38 76% 20% 38% +8 +2 1.22 36% 1.2 .42 13% .57 75% .43



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.5 3.4 5.0 1st
2nd 1.9 8.7 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.9 13.9 6.1 21.0 3rd
4th 0.0 8.3 12.6 0.1 21.0 4th
5th 0.9 14.2 1.3 16.4 5th
6th 5.1 4.7 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.4 7.3 0.2 7.9 7th
8th 1.6 2.6 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 2.6 0.2 2.8 9th
10th 0.5 0.8 1.3 10th
11th 0.2 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.7 5.3 16.0 28.4 29.8 16.4 3.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 3.4    0.7 2.0 0.7
12-6 9.1% 1.5    0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 0.7 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 3.4% 19.8% 19.8% 11.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 2.8
12-6 16.4% 17.2% 17.2% 11.9 0.5 2.1 0.3 13.6
11-7 29.8% 14.1% 14.1% 12.4 0.1 2.7 1.3 0.1 25.6
10-8 28.4% 8.2% 8.2% 12.8 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 26.1
9-9 16.0% 4.8% 4.8% 14.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 15.2
8-10 5.3% 3.8% 3.8% 15.3 0.2 0.1 5.1
7-11 0.7% 9.9% 9.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.6
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 12.5 88.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 11.5 2.9 47.1 48.5 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%