Memphis
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.9#32
Expected Predictive Rating+22.0#5
Pace74.0#59
Improvement-0.1#192

Offense
Total Offense+8.6#15
First Shot+7.4#25
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#114
Layup/Dunks+1.4#131
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#155
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#81
Freethrows+2.5#60
Improvement+1.2#89

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#68
First Shot+5.7#31
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#278
Layups/Dunks+6.6#22
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#14
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#341
Freethrows+1.5#94
Improvement-1.3#290
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.7% 1.8% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 4.6% 5.0% 1.3%
Top 4 Seed 16.6% 17.6% 6.3%
Top 6 Seed 32.5% 34.1% 16.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.2% 82.5% 69.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 63.0% 64.9% 47.2%
Average Seed 7.3 7.2 8.4
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.6% 99.1%
Conference Champion 69.9% 70.8% 60.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.5% 5.4% 6.7%
First Round78.5% 79.8% 65.6%
Second Round48.2% 49.4% 35.3%
Sweet Sixteen20.2% 21.0% 12.1%
Elite Eight8.2% 8.7% 4.2%
Final Four3.3% 3.5% 1.5%
Championship Game1.3% 1.4% 0.4%
National Champion0.5% 0.6% 0.2%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Home) - 90.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 14 - 3
Quad 27 - 210 - 5
Quad 312 - 222 - 6
Quad 45 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 63   Missouri W 83-75 74%     1 - 0 +14.1 +6.7 +7.0
  Nov 09, 2024 104   @ UNLV W 80-74 70%     2 - 0 +13.4 +9.2 +4.1
  Nov 15, 2024 157   Ohio W 94-70 92%     3 - 0 +21.3 +10.2 +9.2
  Nov 21, 2024 64   San Francisco W 68-64 64%     4 - 0 +13.1 +0.4 +12.7
  Nov 25, 2024 11   Connecticut W 99-97 OT 40%     5 - 0 +17.5 +24.1 -6.8
  Nov 26, 2024 27   Michigan St. W 71-63 48%     6 - 0 +21.3 +12.5 +9.6
  Nov 27, 2024 3   Auburn L 76-90 24%     6 - 1 +6.4 +12.6 -6.8
  Dec 04, 2024 103   Louisiana Tech W 81-71 86%     7 - 1 +11.5 +10.1 +1.6
  Dec 08, 2024 130   Arkansas St. W 84-70 91%    
  Dec 14, 2024 28   @ Clemson L 73-76 38%    
  Dec 18, 2024 90   @ Virginia W 68-64 64%    
  Dec 21, 2024 15   Mississippi St. W 79-78 53%    
  Dec 28, 2024 26   Mississippi W 79-77 59%    
  Jan 02, 2025 92   @ Florida Atlantic W 86-82 64%    
  Jan 05, 2025 77   North Texas W 71-62 79%    
  Jan 11, 2025 159   East Carolina W 81-65 93%    
  Jan 16, 2025 118   @ Temple W 82-75 74%    
  Jan 19, 2025 205   @ Charlotte W 78-66 86%    
  Jan 23, 2025 94   Wichita St. W 82-72 82%    
  Jan 26, 2025 124   UAB W 89-75 89%    
  Jan 30, 2025 220   @ Tulane W 84-71 88%    
  Feb 02, 2025 168   @ Rice W 79-68 83%    
  Feb 05, 2025 225   Tulsa W 87-68 96%    
  Feb 09, 2025 118   Temple W 85-72 88%    
  Feb 13, 2025 148   @ South Florida W 82-73 79%    
  Feb 16, 2025 94   @ Wichita St. W 79-75 65%    
  Feb 23, 2025 92   Florida Atlantic W 89-79 81%    
  Feb 26, 2025 168   Rice W 82-65 93%    
  Mar 02, 2025 124   @ UAB W 86-78 75%    
  Mar 04, 2025 249   @ Texas San Antonio W 90-75 90%    
  Mar 07, 2025 148   South Florida W 85-70 91%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.3 7.9 15.9 19.6 16.5 7.4 69.9 1st
2nd 0.2 1.5 4.9 6.2 3.5 0.8 0.0 17.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 2.4 0.8 0.0 6.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.0 5.8 9.9 14.9 19.5 20.4 16.5 7.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 7.4    7.4
17-1 99.8% 16.5    16.2 0.3
16-2 96.3% 19.6    17.5 2.1 0.0
15-3 81.7% 15.9    11.3 4.2 0.4 0.0
14-4 53.0% 7.9    3.7 3.3 0.9 0.0 0.0
13-5 23.6% 2.3    0.5 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 69.9% 69.9 56.5 11.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 7.4% 99.3% 68.6% 30.7% 3.3 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.7%
17-1 16.5% 98.2% 62.8% 35.4% 4.8 0.5 1.3 2.6 3.5 2.9 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.3 95.3%
16-2 20.4% 94.7% 56.8% 37.9% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 2.8 3.6 3.2 2.6 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.0 1.1 87.7%
15-3 19.5% 86.6% 48.7% 37.9% 8.4 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.9 2.1 2.8 3.7 3.4 1.9 0.0 2.6 73.9%
14-4 14.9% 75.3% 42.0% 33.4% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.3 2.4 3.5 3.0 0.2 3.7 57.5%
13-5 9.9% 61.2% 37.2% 24.0% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 2.6 0.2 3.8 38.3%
12-6 5.8% 48.1% 30.7% 17.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 0.2 3.0 25.1%
11-7 3.0% 33.6% 22.7% 11.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 2.0 14.2%
10-8 1.6% 21.0% 16.2% 4.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.2 5.7%
9-9 0.7% 15.6% 11.1% 4.5% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6 5.1%
8-10 0.3% 11.2% 11.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.3
7-11 0.1% 4.3% 4.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 81.2% 49.2% 32.0% 7.3 1.7 2.9 5.0 7.0 7.4 8.5 7.5 8.0 10.0 11.4 10.9 0.9 18.8 63.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 1.9 37.2 43.8 14.4 4.2 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.6 23.1 21.5 29.2 21.5 4.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 2.4 23.5 29.4 35.3 11.8