Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#216
Expected Predictive Rating-11.0#326
Pace68.4#199
Improvement-1.0#246

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#245
First Shot-3.4#274
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#148
Layup/Dunks-0.7#205
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#57
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#312
Freethrows-0.5#217
Improvement+1.7#59

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#163
First Shot+0.2#169
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#196
Layups/Dunks+1.1#137
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#15
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#300
Freethrows-0.4#216
Improvement-2.7#348
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.2% 9.1% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 38.4% 43.8% 20.9%
.500 or above in Conference 67.7% 73.7% 48.5%
Conference Champion 9.5% 11.4% 3.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 1.1% 6.9%
First Four2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
First Round7.3% 8.2% 4.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: IU Indianapolis (Away) - 76.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 63 - 11
Quad 412 - 614 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 61   @ Florida St. L 62-74 9%     0 - 1 +0.3 -8.8 +10.1
  Nov 08, 2024 21   @ Purdue L 50-72 4%     0 - 2 -4.5 -10.3 +3.1
  Nov 14, 2024 223   Nicholls St. L 59-61 64%     0 - 3 -8.4 -14.3 +5.8
  Nov 19, 2024 25   Cincinnati L 60-76 11%     0 - 4 -5.1 -2.3 -4.1
  Nov 27, 2024 127   @ College of Charleston L 64-79 24%     0 - 5 -10.3 -5.1 -5.6
  Nov 30, 2024 333   Bellarmine W 86-70 83%     1 - 5 +3.1 +7.1 -3.5
  Dec 03, 2024 131   @ Akron L 73-86 24%     1 - 6 -8.5 +3.3 -12.3
  Dec 07, 2024 356   @ IU Indianapolis W 75-67 76%    
  Dec 15, 2024 153   Norfolk St. L 69-70 49%    
  Dec 18, 2024 298   Detroit Mercy W 74-66 76%    
  Dec 21, 2024 303   South Carolina St. W 74-66 76%    
  Dec 29, 2024 275   @ Robert Morris W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 01, 2025 150   Purdue Fort Wayne L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 04, 2025 310   Green Bay W 79-71 77%    
  Jan 08, 2025 229   @ Youngstown St. L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 11, 2025 144   Oakland L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 15, 2025 259   @ Cleveland St. L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 18, 2025 136   Wright St. L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 24, 2025 172   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 30, 2025 298   @ Detroit Mercy W 71-69 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 144   @ Oakland L 62-69 28%    
  Feb 05, 2025 259   Cleveland St. W 71-65 70%    
  Feb 08, 2025 275   Robert Morris W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 14, 2025 310   @ Green Bay W 76-74 57%    
  Feb 16, 2025 172   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 21, 2025 136   @ Wright St. L 69-76 26%    
  Feb 23, 2025 356   IU Indianapolis W 78-64 89%    
  Feb 27, 2025 150   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 71-77 29%    
  Mar 01, 2025 229   Youngstown St. W 70-66 64%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.5 2.5 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 9.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.0 2.6 0.8 0.1 10.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.7 5.2 2.5 0.4 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 4.2 5.5 2.4 0.3 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.1 5.6 2.3 0.2 13.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 3.8 5.1 1.7 0.2 11.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.5 3.2 1.3 0.1 7.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 2.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.9 5.9 8.1 10.9 11.9 12.6 12.3 10.9 8.4 5.4 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
17-3 92.7% 1.7    1.4 0.3
16-4 75.8% 2.5    1.7 0.7 0.1
15-5 46.1% 2.5    1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0
14-6 18.3% 1.5    0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1
13-7 3.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.5% 9.5 5.5 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 35.0% 35.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.7% 32.9% 32.9% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
17-3 1.8% 27.5% 27.5% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3
16-4 3.3% 23.6% 23.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 2.5
15-5 5.4% 20.5% 20.5% 14.7 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 4.3
14-6 8.4% 15.9% 15.9% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 7.1
13-7 10.9% 11.8% 11.8% 15.5 0.1 0.5 0.7 9.6
12-8 12.3% 8.8% 8.8% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 11.3
11-9 12.6% 6.1% 6.1% 15.9 0.1 0.7 11.9
10-10 11.9% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5 11.4
9-11 10.9% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.3 10.6
8-12 8.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 8.0
7-13 5.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.9
6-14 3.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.8
5-15 2.0% 2.0
4-16 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.6 3.8 91.8 0.0%