Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.1 195
Expected Predictive Rating -2.6 211
Pace 72.2 79
Improvement -1.3 234

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 189 C- C C C- B-
Defense C- 207 D+ D B+ C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 150 C+ 60% 123 +1.2 136
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 273 D+ 35% 274 -2.5 301
Three Pointers 45% 87 D 31% 298 +0.2 170
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.7 85 C- -1.8 240
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 205
Second Chance C 29.8% 198 C 1.02 183 C 0.30 189
Turnovers C 17.1% 194
Freethrows C- 0.29 223 C- 71% 222 C- 0.21 224
Total Offense C -0.9 189

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 41% 293 B- 9.3% 85
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 235 C+ 4.8% 171
Three Pointers C+ 87% 122 B 0.4% 55
Total C- 54% 219 B 4.5% 67

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 120 C 57% 166 +1.1 215
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 221 D 42% 311 +0.1 198
Three Pointers 40% 211 D 37% 312 +1.5 258
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.4 238 D+ +2.2 262
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 267
Second Chance D 33.5% 301 D 1.12 305 D 0.37 319
Turnovers B+ 19.7% 40
Freethrows D+ 0.34 291 B 70% 67 C- 0.24 252
Total Defense C- -1.2 207

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 209 C+ 12.4% 117
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 36% 326 C- 3.9% 234
Three Pointers B 79% 60 D+ 0.5% 246
Total C- 57% 213 C+ 6.0% 142

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.1 62 17.6 248
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 11 0.19 235
Improvement -0.2 #196 -1.0 #254

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 224 195 163
Conference Record 9 - 11 11 - 9 12 - 8
Conference Finish 7 5 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10% 13% 9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.5 15.1
.500 or above 96% 100% 94%
.500 or above in Conference 89% 100% 82%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round10% 13% 9%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Youngstown St. (Away) - 38.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 414 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 16 @Tennessee L 56 - 95 2% -18  4% 0 - 1 F+ -17 D- -8 D B+ F+ F -10 D- D C-
 Wed, Nov 12 131 @East Tennessee St. L 63 - 75 26% -8  0% 0 - 2 D+ -7 F -12 F+ F F B +5 F A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 20 274 @Central Michigan W 90 - 66 56% +13  99% 1 - 2 A +20 A+ +14 B+ A+ C+ B+ +7 C F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 278 Eastern Kentucky W 82 - 71 77% +4  78% 2 - 2 C +1 C- -2 D- A C B- +3 C+ D B
 Wed, Nov 26 230 Wofford W 93 - 83 68% +2  61% 3 - 2 C+ +3 B +6 C+ B B+ D+ -3 B- C- C
 Sat, Nov 29 256 Boston University W 74 - 65 73% -2  25% 4 - 2 C +1 C- -1 F A+ F B- +2 D D- A+
 Wed, Dec 3 312 Cleveland St. W 95 - 80 83% +8  95% 5 - 2 1 - 0 C+ +3 B +6 B+ A+ F D+ -4 F+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 259 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 79 52% +2  54% 5 - 3 1 - 1 C- -5 D -5 F+ D+ F C+ +1 F B A+
 Sat, Dec 13 287 @Bellarmine W 80 - 76 58% +6  75% 6 - 3 C -0 D -4 C F+ C+ B +4 D C A+
 Wed, Dec 17 170 Oakland L 77 - 82 56% -2  20% 6 - 4 1 - 2 D -9 D- -7 D- C- B- C- -2 C+ B+ C-
 Sun, Dec 21 151 College of Charleston L 74 - 85 53% -4  6% 6 - 5 D- -14 D -5 C D+ F F+ -8 F D- B+
 Mon, Dec 29 177 @Robert Morris W 79 - 77 35% -1  47% 7 - 5 2 - 2 C+ +4 C+ +3 B- D C- C+ +1 C- F B+
 Thu, Jan 1 323 IU Indianapolis W 81 - 72 85% -3  25% 8 - 5 3 - 2 C- -4 D+ -3 C+ D A- C -1 C- F A
 Sun, Jan 4 196 Youngstown St. W 94 - 79 62% +15  98% 9 - 5 4 - 2 B +10 B +6 B+ B+ C+ B- +3 A C+ F
 Fri, Jan 9 269 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 85 - 67 54% +13  95% 10 - 5 5 - 2 A- +15 A+ +15 D- A+ B C+ +2 C+ D+ C-
 Sun, Jan 11 228 @Green Bay L 78 - 80 44% -13  0% 10 - 6 5 - 3 C- -3 A +11 C F A+ F -14 F D C-
 Thu, Jan 15 252 Detroit Mercy W 96 - 71 72% +12  99% 11 - 6 6 - 3 A- +17 B+ +9 A+ C- B B+ +6 A F F
 Sat, Jan 17 177 Robert Morris L 89 - 92 OT 58% -3  17% 11 - 7 6 - 4 D+ -7 D -4 D+ D+ C- C- -2 C- F+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 149 @Wright St. L 80 - 88 30% -9  7% 11 - 8 6 - 5 C- -5 B- +4 A- C D- F+ -9 D- D+ D
 Fri, Jan 30 252 @Detroit Mercy L 77 - 90 50% -9  15% 11 - 9 6 - 6 F+ -15 C- -1 D- F B+ F -14 F F A
 Sun, Feb 1 170 @Oakland L 65 - 76 33% -2  34% 11 - 10 6 - 7 D -9 F -18 F D- C+ A +10 A+ F A-
 Wed, Feb 4 228 Green Bay L 84 - 87 OT 67% -3  23% 11 - 11 6 - 8 D -10 D -4 B- F B+ D -5 C- F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 269 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 67 - 62 75% +2  58% 12 - 11 7 - 8 C- -4 D- -6 D- C- D+ B- +3 C- C+ B
 Thu, Feb 12 323 @IU Indianapolis W 84 - 81 70% -6  13% 13 - 11 8 - 8 C- -4 C+ +3 B F+ D D- -7 D- C- C-
 Wed, Feb 18 259 Purdue Fort Wayne W 87 - 71 74% +6  78% 14 - 11 9 - 8 B- +7 B +6 B+ F A C+ +1 C- B B+
 Sun, Feb 22 196 @Youngstown St. L 75 - 78 39%
 Wed, Feb 25 312 @Cleveland St. W 86 - 82 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 149 Wright St. W 77 - 76 52%
Totals 16 - 12 11 - 9 -2 C -1 D- C- B- C- -1 D C- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ D+ D C- 39% 29% 45% B- C- C C C C C- C- C- C- C D D D+ 41% 19% 40% C- D+ D D D B+ D+ B C-
1.07 60% 35% 31% -2 +1 1.00 30% 1.0 .30 17% .29 71% .21 1.10 57% 42% 37% +2 0 1.07 33% 1.1 .37 20% .34 70% .20
Nov
8		 Tennessee D- C- D+ F D- 39% 12% 49% A- D C A+ B+ F+ D- F F F C F F F+ 37% 19% 44% C+ D- D- C D C- B F C
0.80 53% 33% 21% -12 +1 0.80 24% 1.3 .32 22% .24 38% .09 1.36 60% 60% 42% +10 0 1.22 52% 1.1 .55 17% .33 79% .26
Nov
12		 East Tennessee St. F D+ D- F F 38% 13% 49% C+ F+ B F F F D D+ D- B D F F F 67% 12% 21% F F A+ A+ A+ A+ F A- F
0.87 55% 29% 27% -8 +1 0.89 34% 0.4 .14 25% .26 71% .18 1.04 64% 60% 44% +10 +3 1.29 13% 0.7 .09 25% .50 70% .35
Nov
20		 Central Michigan A+ C- D A+ B+ 37% 17% 46% C- B+ B- A+ A+ C+ F C- F B+ D+ F A+ C 35% 28% 37% C+ C F F F A+ F A D
1.32 58% 33% 46% +7 0 1.17 39% 1.5 .61 16% .23 69% .16 0.97 60% 50% 25% -1 -1 0.98 39% 1.3 .52 28% .36 61% .22
Nov
24		 Eastern Kentucky C- A+ F D- D- 27% 22% 51% D+ D- D A+ A C C+ A+ A- B- D F A C 16% 24% 59% B C+ C F+ D B F A D+
1.15 79% 27% 31% +1 -1 1.02 28% 1.7 .47 15% .35 86% .30 1.00 63% 50% 28% -2 -2 0.94 32% 1.3 .41 20% .33 63% .21
Nov
26		 Wofford B A F C- C+ 55% 22% 24% C C+ C A+ B B+ A+ C- A+ D+ A- A+ F C+ 37% 26% 37% A B- D+ B- C- C F D+ F
1.25 68% 27% 33% +3 +1 1.10 30% 1.4 .42 12% .52 76% .40 1.12 47% 25% 41% -3 -1 0.93 31% 0.9 .28 15% .68 74% .51
Nov
29		 Boston University C- D+ F F F 29% 20% 51% D+ F A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ B- F B- D D- 37% 29% 34% A D D+ F+ D- A+ F D+ F
1.19 54% 22% 26% -10 -1 0.80 50% 1.4 .69 18% .47 83% .39 1.04 79% 36% 38% +9 -1 1.18 29% 1.2 .33 26% .41 74% .30
Dec
3		 Cleveland St. B B B A+ A- 37% 17% 46% C B+ A- A- A+ F D A+ C+ D+ A+ A+ F F+ 29% 15% 56% C F+ F+ F F A+ F D+ F
1.32 68% 44% 46% +13 0 1.29 44% 1.3 .56 20% .26 93% .24 1.12 42% 0% 57% +9 0 1.20 32% 1.4 .44 28% .54 79% .43
Dec
6		 Purdue Fort Wayne D C- D+ D- F 30% 11% 59% C- F+ B- F D+ F B A+ A+ C+ C F+ F F 48% 22% 30% C F F A+ B A+ F A- F
1.02 59% 33% 30% -4 +1 0.96 38% 0.9 .32 24% .31 94% .30 1.05 58% 45% 53% +10 +1 1.24 33% 0.5 .15 24% .38 64% .24
Dec
13		 Bellarmine D A- B C- C- 41% 17% 43% B- C D+ F F+ C+ D+ F F B C+ F F D 45% 10% 45% D+ D F+ A+ C A+ B F D+
1.14 73% 44% 35% +8 +1 1.19 32% 0.9 .30 14% .28 47% .13 1.08 59% 60% 41% +7 +2 1.20 26% 0.9 .22 26% .25 100% .25
Dec
17		 Oakland D- A- F F F+ 40% 17% 43% B- D- C- C- C- B- D B- D C- B D+ C C+ 45% 22% 33% C C+ C- A+ B+ C- F A- F
1.06 70% 30% 24% -3 +1 0.97 33% 0.9 .30 14% .19 75% .14 1.13 52% 42% 33% -2 0 0.98 32% 0.8 .27 14% .46 69% .32
Dec
21		 College of Charleston D D+ B+ D+ C- 35% 14% 51% B+ C B F D+ F B+ A+ A+ F+ C+ F C- F 43% 17% 39% D- F D+ F+ D- B+ F A- F
1.00 56% 43% 31% -3 +1 0.98 36% 0.7 .26 23% .28 88% .25 1.15 60% 88% 33% +9 +1 1.22 32% 1.2 .39 20% .49 69% .34
Dec
29		 Robert Morris C+ A- C F B- 58% 17% 25% B+ B- F A D C- A C- A- C+ C F B- C- 31% 21% 48% C+ C- D F F B+ C- A+ B
1.12 68% 38% 25% +2 +2 1.10 18% 1.2 .21 17% .46 74% .34 1.09 56% 55% 32% +2 -1 1.04 39% 1.3 .53 21% .25 50% .13
Jan
1		 IU Indianapolis D+ F F A+ C 42% 8% 50% C+ C+ F B+ D A- B- F D- C F D C+ D 15% 31% 54% A+ C- F+ F F A A- F B-
1.15 50% 0% 50% +5 +2 1.17 27% 1.3 .36 16% .42 60% .25 1.02 75% 44% 32% +3 -3 1.02 33% 1.3 .43 21% .11 100% .11
Jan
4		 Youngstown St. B D- B- A+ B- 54% 10% 37% A+ B+ C- A+ B+ C+ A+ B A+ B- A B B+ A+ 35% 15% 50% C+ A B+ D- C+ F F+ A+ C
1.20 54% 40% 47% +5 +3 1.17 30% 1.3 .40 18% .50 78% .39 1.01 48% 33% 30% -7 0 0.88 25% 1.2 .29 13% .34 57% .19
Jan
9		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee A+ B- A F F 39% 4% 57% B+ D- A+ A A+ B D A C- C+ D C- A+ B- 37% 20% 43% D+ C+ B- F D+ C- F+ A+ C-
1.33 63% 50% 25% -5 +2 0.96 49% 1.4 .68 14% .29 81% .24 1.05 61% 40% 24% -5 0 0.92 29% 1.3 .37 14% .35 58% .20
Jan
11		 Green Bay A D+ D B C- 41% 12% 47% A- C D F F A+ C+ A- B- F F B+ F F 46% 13% 41% D F F A D C- A- A A
1.29 57% 33% 38% +2 +1 1.08 26% 0.9 .24 5% .35 80% .28 1.33 71% 33% 53% +17 +1 1.39 36% 0.9 .32 15% .29 67% .19
Jan
15		 Detroit Mercy B+ B- A+ A+ A+ 51% 9% 40% B+ A+ F+ A+ C- B A+ B- A+ B+ A- B A A+ 24% 34% 42% C+ A C+ F F F A+ A+ A+
1.28 63% 60% 43% +10 +2 1.26 23% 1.4 .33 12% .47 74% .35 0.95 47% 33% 27% -9 -3 0.79 31% 1.3 .42 9% .13 33% .04
Jan
17		 Robert Morris D B F F D- 48% 10% 41% B+ D+ D+ D+ D+ C- A+ D+ A+ C- B A+ D- C+ 44% 7% 48% F C- C+ F F+ C+ F C F
1.06 64% 17% 25% -5 +2 0.97 26% 0.9 .24 17% .53 73% .38 1.09 50% 25% 38% -1 +2 1.04 34% 1.4 .47 19% .45 68% .31
Jan
24		 Wright St. B- A+ A+ F A 44% 20% 36% C+ A- D+ B C D- C- D+ D+ F+ D- B D- D- 51% 20% 29% D D- F A- D+ D F F F
1.14 77% 70% 22% +9 0 1.20 28% 1.1 .31 20% .28 69% .20 1.25 65% 33% 38% +5 +1 1.13 40% 0.9 .37 14% .60 81% .48
Jan
30		 Detroit Mercy C- C+ A+ F D- 32% 7% 61% C+ D- C F F B+ A F B- F C- D+ F F 30% 26% 43% F+ F F+ F F A F A+ F
1.09 61% 50% 26% -6 +1 0.93 32% 0.7 .23 11% .43 63% .27 1.28 57% 42% 60% +18 -1 1.35 38% 1.3 .48 21% .50 64% .32
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Oakland F F F+ F F 35% 10% 55% B+ F D- D D- C+ D F D- A A+ F A+ A+ 56% 15% 30% F A+ D+ F F A- D- B D+
0.85 50% 33% 21% -14 +1 0.76 28% 0.9 .24 14% .20 62% .12 1.00 37% 63% 19% -15 +2 0.76 33% 1.7 .56 18% .39 71% .27
Feb
4		 Green Bay D D+ A+ C C+ 40% 9% 51% A- B- D- F F B+ C- F D- D C A D C 47% 13% 40% D- C- F F F A+ D+ B- C-
1.11 57% 80% 34% +3 +2 1.12 24% 0.8 .19 11% .33 64% .21 1.15 56% 29% 38% 0 +2 1.06 39% 1.5 .58 23% .38 73% .27
Feb
7		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee D- C+ C F+ D- 31% 12% 57% C- D- D B C- D+ A+ C A+ B- B A+ F C 43% 17% 39% F+ C- A+ F C+ B B+ B B+
1.07 62% 40% 29% -3 +1 0.98 26% 1.3 .32 18% .45 74% .33 0.99 50% 25% 39% -3 +1 0.98 23% 1.4 .32 18% .21 64% .14
Feb
12		 IU Indianapolis C+ A- F A+ B+ 47% 16% 38% C- B C+ F F+ D A+ F B+ D- B F F+ D 52% 24% 24% D- D- F A+ C- C- F+ F F
1.19 71% 14% 47% +10 +1 1.24 38% 0.8 .32 21% .54 63% .34 1.15 54% 54% 38% +3 +1 1.09 42% 0.7 .31 16% .25 80% .20
Feb
18		 Purdue Fort Wayne B A F C+ B 52% 2% 46% A B+ D+ F F A B F C+ C+ B- A+ D+ C+ 45% 4% 51% F C- B+ C B B+ F F+ F
1.22 71% 0% 36% +8 +3 1.24 31% 0.7 .23 15% .32 68% .22 1.00 55% 0% 36% -2 +3 1.04 16% 1.0 .16 18% .38 77% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 3.9 3.9 2nd
3rd 1.3 7.3 8.6 3rd
4th 0.0 12.2 2.8 15.0 4th
5th 5.5 20.5 0.4 26.4 5th
6th 1.2 17.7 4.9 23.8 6th
7th 7.3 12.3 0.2 19.9 7th
8th 2.4 2.4 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 11.0 35.6 39.1 14.4 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 14.4% 17.9% 17.9% 14.1 0.4 1.5 0.7 0.0 11.8
11-9 39.1% 11.4% 11.4% 14.8 0.0 1.1 2.9 0.4 34.6
10-10 35.6% 7.8% 7.8% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.0 32.8
9-11 11.0% 5.1% 5.1% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 10.4
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 14.8 89.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.6% 100.0% 14.1 14.3 58.9 26.7 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.7%
Lose Out 3.9%