Penn
Ivy League
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#148
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#178
Pace67.3#206
Improvement+0.6#114

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#84
First Shot+0.9#149
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#40
Layup/Dunks-1.6#246
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#259
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#56
Freethrows+0.3#152
Improvement+0.0#207

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#242
First Shot-0.3#186
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#332
Layups/Dunks+1.1#131
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#172
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#243
Freethrows-0.4#224
Improvement+0.6#86
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.7% 9.8% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.6
.500 or above 70.3% 72.6% 36.6%
.500 or above in Conference 70.3% 72.6% 36.6%
Conference Champion 4.6% 4.9% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 3.5%
First Four2.2% 2.1% 3.6%
First Round9.0% 9.1% 7.0%
Second Round0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Columbia (Home) - 93.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 36 - 37 - 10
Quad 48 - 414 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 85   @ Iona L 50-78 24%     0 - 1 -19.4 -18.3 -1.0
  Nov 11, 2022 46   @ Missouri L 85-92 14%     0 - 2 +5.8 +13.0 -7.3
  Nov 13, 2022 141   Towson L 74-80 58%     0 - 3 -7.1 +1.2 -8.3
  Nov 15, 2022 202   @ Drexel W 64-59 50%     1 - 3 +6.1 -5.1 +11.3
  Nov 18, 2022 23   @ West Virginia L 58-92 9%     1 - 4 -17.7 -5.6 -13.4
  Nov 22, 2022 261   @ Lafayette W 74-68 OT 64%     2 - 4 +3.4 +2.9 +0.5
  Nov 25, 2022 360   Hartford W 75-55 96%     3 - 4 +0.3 -2.9 +4.3
  Nov 26, 2022 118   Colgate W 81-69 54%     4 - 4 +12.0 +5.8 +6.4
  Nov 27, 2022 206   Delaware W 86-73 71%     5 - 4 +8.5 +15.3 -6.1
  Nov 30, 2022 162   Saint Joseph's L 80-85 OT 63%     5 - 5 -7.4 -2.2 -4.7
  Dec 03, 2022 230   La Salle L 81-84 OT 76%     5 - 6 -9.3 +2.6 -11.8
  Dec 07, 2022 62   @ Villanova L 59-70 17%     5 - 7 +0.2 +0.5 -2.2
  Dec 10, 2022 98   Temple W 77-57 46%     6 - 7 +22.1 +19.1 +6.2
  Jan 02, 2023 207   @ Brown W 76-68 51%     7 - 7 1 - 0 +8.9 +5.4 +3.4
  Jan 06, 2023 105   @ Cornell L 69-88 29%     7 - 8 1 - 1 -12.3 -9.7 -1.4
  Jan 07, 2023 346   @ Columbia W 84-55 83%     8 - 8 2 - 1 +19.7 +7.4 +11.9
  Jan 14, 2023 275   @ Dartmouth L 71-75 66%     8 - 9 2 - 2 -7.1 +3.3 -10.7
  Jan 16, 2023 115   Princeton L 60-72 53%     8 - 10 2 - 3 -11.8 -13.7 +1.9
  Jan 21, 2023 92   @ Yale L 63-70 25%     8 - 11 2 - 4 +1.1 +3.5 -3.5
  Jan 23, 2023 360   @ Hartford W 76-52 92%     9 - 11 +9.8 +8.6 +5.0
  Jan 28, 2023 157   Harvard W 83-68 63%     10 - 11 3 - 4 +12.7 +12.5 +0.3
  Feb 03, 2023 346   Columbia W 81-65 94%    
  Feb 04, 2023 105   Cornell L 82-83 51%    
  Feb 11, 2023 157   @ Harvard L 67-69 41%    
  Feb 17, 2023 92   Yale L 70-72 46%    
  Feb 18, 2023 207   Brown W 73-67 71%    
  Feb 25, 2023 275   Dartmouth W 76-66 82%    
  Mar 04, 2023 115   @ Princeton L 70-75 32%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 7 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.5 2.1 4.6 1st
2nd 0.0 3.1 6.9 0.4 10.4 2nd
3rd 2.0 14.0 2.3 18.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 16.3 8.1 0.0 25.7 4th
5th 0.4 9.5 11.5 0.2 21.7 5th
6th 0.1 3.6 8.7 0.9 13.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 3.6 1.1 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
Total 0.1 1.4 7.6 20.6 30.7 25.4 11.8 2.5 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 83.5% 2.1    0.9 1.0 0.2
9-5 21.4% 2.5    0.1 0.6 1.3 0.5 0.0
8-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 4.6% 4.6 1.0 1.6 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 2.5% 18.2% 18.2% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.0
9-5 11.8% 14.3% 14.3% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.0 10.1
8-6 25.4% 11.1% 11.1% 14.9 0.0 0.5 2.2 0.2 22.6
7-7 30.7% 9.2% 9.2% 15.6 0.0 1.0 1.8 27.9
6-8 20.6% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4 19.2
5-9 7.6% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.4 7.2
4-10 1.4% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.1 1.3
3-11 0.1% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.0 3.9 90.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.5% 18.2% 13.5 1.0 7.8 8.5 0.9
Lose Out 0.1% 5.7% 16.0 5.7