Penn
Ivy League
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#206
Expected Predictive Rating-1.9#206
Pace68.9#187
Improvement+1.9#52

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#159
First Shot-0.2#190
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#127
Layup/Dunks+0.6#150
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#61
Freethrows-2.8#323
Improvement+1.2#75

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#251
First Shot-1.6#231
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#234
Layups/Dunks-3.0#274
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#305
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#103
Freethrows+1.3#115
Improvement+0.7#116
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.6% 7.9% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 19.4% 30.6% 12.4%
.500 or above in Conference 59.3% 64.3% 56.1%
Conference Champion 9.6% 11.6% 8.4%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 3.1% 4.3%
First Four1.0% 0.5% 1.3%
First Round6.2% 7.7% 5.3%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Joseph's (Away) - 38.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 34 - 74 - 14
Quad 48 - 212 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 38   @ Florida St. L 70-105 8%     0 - 1 -21.1 -3.1 -13.6
  Nov 12, 2021 139   @ George Mason L 66-87 26%     0 - 2 -16.1 -8.5 -6.3
  Nov 14, 2021 309   @ Bucknell W 73-68 65%     1 - 2 -0.7 -3.4 +2.7
  Nov 16, 2021 294   Lafayette W 85-57 80%     2 - 2 +17.4 +8.2 +9.9
  Nov 18, 2021 50   Utah St. L 79-87 2OT 15%     2 - 3 +1.3 +0.0 +2.4
  Nov 19, 2021 70   Davidson L 60-72 20%     2 - 4 -4.9 -1.9 -4.8
  Nov 21, 2021 203   Old Dominion W 71-63 50%     3 - 4 +6.3 +8.3 -1.0
  Nov 23, 2021 144   @ Towson L 61-76 27%     3 - 5 -10.4 -6.6 -4.7
  Nov 28, 2021 25   @ Arkansas L 60-76 6%     3 - 6 +0.4 -8.6 +9.9
  Dec 01, 2021 7   Villanova L 56-71 7%     3 - 7 -0.1 -4.5 +2.3
  Dec 04, 2021 140   @ Temple L 72-81 26%     3 - 8 -4.2 +7.8 -12.8
  Dec 08, 2021 207   @ Saint Joseph's L 75-78 39%    
  Dec 11, 2021 248   @ La Salle L 70-71 48%    
  Dec 28, 2021 167   James Madison W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 02, 2022 180   Brown W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 04, 2022 274   Howard W 82-75 75%    
  Jan 07, 2022 188   Cornell W 79-77 58%    
  Jan 08, 2022 339   Columbia W 80-66 91%    
  Jan 15, 2022 250   Dartmouth W 70-64 70%    
  Jan 17, 2022 152   @ Princeton L 70-76 30%    
  Jan 22, 2022 135   Yale L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 28, 2022 151   @ Harvard L 68-74 29%    
  Feb 04, 2022 339   @ Columbia W 77-69 77%    
  Feb 05, 2022 188   @ Cornell L 76-80 37%    
  Feb 12, 2022 151   Harvard L 71-72 50%    
  Feb 18, 2022 135   @ Yale L 69-76 27%    
  Feb 19, 2022 180   @ Brown L 67-71 36%    
  Feb 26, 2022 250   @ Dartmouth L 67-68 49%    
  Mar 05, 2022 152   Princeton W 74-73 50%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 7 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 3.2 3.1 1.6 0.4 0.1 9.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.8 5.9 3.8 0.8 0.1 12.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 7.4 4.8 0.6 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 7.9 6.1 0.6 0.0 16.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 7.5 6.6 0.7 0.0 16.7 5th
6th 0.3 2.4 7.2 6.2 0.9 17.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.5 3.4 0.6 0.0 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.8 8th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.6 7.2 12.5 15.9 17.0 16.1 12.5 7.7 3.9 1.6 0.4 0.1 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
13-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
12-2 96.3% 1.6    1.4 0.2
11-3 80.0% 3.1    1.9 1.1 0.1
10-4 42.1% 3.2    1.0 1.6 0.6 0.1
9-5 9.7% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0
8-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 9.6% 9.6 4.7 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-1 0.4% 98.9% 98.9% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-2 1.6% 92.0% 92.0% 14.7 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.1
11-3 3.9% 63.0% 63.0% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.7 1.5
10-4 7.7% 23.8% 23.8% 15.6 0.0 0.7 1.1 5.8
9-5 12.5% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 12.2
8-6 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 16.1
7-7 17.0% 17.0
6-8 15.9% 15.9
5-9 12.5% 12.5
4-10 7.2% 7.2
3-11 3.6% 3.6
2-12 1.3% 1.3
1-13 0.3% 0.3
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.1 2.3 93.4 0.0%