Purdue Fort Wayne
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -5.6 259
Expected Predictive Rating -2.3 204
Pace 69.6 148
Improvement -0.5 202

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 243 C F+ B- D- B-
Defense D+ 261 D- D B C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 190 C 57% 188 -0.3 192
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 287 D+ 36% 256 -2.2 286
Three Pointers 46% 77 C+ 34% 154 +2.8 86
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.6 104 C -0.3 184
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 169
Second Chance F 21.1% 356 C- 0.99 241 F+ 0.21 354
Turnovers B- 15.2% 79
Freethrows D- 0.24 343 C- 70% 242 D- 0.17 345
Total Offense C- -2.7 243

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D- 37% 328 B- 9.7% 105
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 4% 364 B- 3.6% 79
Three Pointers C 84% 188 D+ 1.4% 301
Total D 50% 301 B- 4.9% 103

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 142 D 63% 311 +2.8 279
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 350 B 35% 69 -3.0 6
Three Pointers 46% 43 D 37% 320 +4.9 348
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.9 336 D +3.7 316
1st FG Attempt D- 1.12 326
Second Chance D- 34.7% 326 C- 1.05 225 D 0.36 310
Turnovers B 19.6% 43
Freethrows B- 0.27 82 D- 76% 336 C+ 0.21 124
Total Defense D+ -2.9 261

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 131 D+ 8.7% 262
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A- 12% 4 C- 4.0% 230
Three Pointers D+ 88% 296 C+ 1.2% 112
Total C- 58% 234 D+ 4.6% 261

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 201 17.1 156
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 128 0.16 128
Improvement -1.9 #278 +1.4 #106

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 283 260 230
Conference Record 9 - 11 10 - 10 12 - 8
Conference Finish 7 6 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 5% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 35% 53% 16%
.500 or above in Conference 87% 100% 71%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round3% 4% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Away) - 53.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 55 - 10
Quad 410 - 614 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 58 @Grand Canyon L 71 - 90 6% -15  1% 0 - 1 D+ -7 C +0 C+ D+ C+ D -5 F D- B+
 Fri, Nov 7 34 @Ohio St. L 68 - 94 3% -14  0% 0 - 2 D -9 D+ -4 C- C C- D+ -4 F D A+
 Wed, Nov 12 284 @Western Michigan L 71 - 83 44% -1  50% 0 - 3 F+ -16 F -15 F D- B- C -1 C- D+ B+
 Tue, Nov 18 102 @Utah L 77 - 85 11% -9  2% 0 - 4 C -0 B+ +8 A- D C F+ -9 F B C+
 Fri, Nov 21 23 @Saint Louis L 60 - 91 2% -19  0% 0 - 5 D- -12 D -6 D- C C D -6 D- C A+
 Tue, Nov 25 351 Chicago St. W 90 - 77 85% +4  61% 1 - 5 C- -4 B+ +8 A+ F D- F -12 D- F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 170 @Oakland L 92 - 101 22% -8  0% 1 - 6 0 - 1 D+ -7 B +6 B- D- A F -12 F D C
 Sat, Dec 6 195 Northern Kentucky W 79 - 77 48% -2  40% 2 - 6 1 - 1 C- -3 D -5 A F F C+ +2 C+ C- A+
 Wed, Dec 10 244 Eastern Michigan W 80 - 65 57% +12  95% 3 - 6 B- +8 B+ +8 D+ A+ B+ C+ +0 F+ B- D+
 Sun, Dec 14 252 Detroit Mercy W 81 - 77 60% +2  61% 4 - 6 2 - 1 C- -4 C+ +2 B- F+ A+ D -6 C D D
 Sun, Dec 21 84 @Notre Dame W 72 - 69 8% +4  89% 5 - 6 B+ +13 C +1 B- F A- A+ +11 A B A
 Mon, Dec 29 269 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 55 - 77 41% -19  4% 5 - 7 2 - 2 F -25 F -21 F F B+ D+ -5 C- F A+
 Thu, Jan 1 228 Green Bay L 54 - 72 54% -10  0% 5 - 8 2 - 3 F -25 F -21 D- F F+ D -6 D- D+ B-
 Sun, Jan 4 312 Cleveland St. W 74 - 71 74% -4  22% 6 - 8 3 - 3 D -9 F+ -10 F+ F B+ C+ +0 B+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 7 196 @Youngstown St. W 71 - 69 27% +0  50% 7 - 8 4 - 3 C+ +3 C- -0 C F+ B- B- +3 A+ F A
 Sun, Jan 11 177 @Robert Morris W 79 - 74 24% +5  85% 8 - 8 5 - 3 B- +7 A- +10 A B+ D- D+ -3 D- A C-
 Sun, Jan 18 269 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 100 - 82 64% +9  99% 9 - 8 6 - 3 B +9 A+ +15 A+ C A+ D- -6 F A+ B
 Wed, Jan 21 252 @Detroit Mercy W 83 - 76 37% +2  55% 10 - 8 7 - 3 B- +5 C+ +3 C+ F A+ C+ +2 C B- C+
 Wed, Jan 28 170 Oakland L 65 - 74 42% -1  30% 10 - 9 7 - 4 D- -13 F -15 F C A- B- +3 D+ A- C
 Sat, Jan 31 177 Robert Morris W 83 - 71 44% +5  77% 11 - 9 8 - 4 B- +8 B- +5 B+ F A B- +3 C+ F A
 Wed, Feb 4 196 Youngstown St. L 61 - 90 48% -15  1% 11 - 10 8 - 5 F -34 F -11 C+ F A F -26 F D C-
 Sat, Feb 7 149 @Wright St. L 68 - 73 20% -8  4% 11 - 11 8 - 6 C- -2 C +1 B F C- D+ -4 C- F A-
 Thu, Feb 12 228 @Green Bay L 59 - 76 32% -16  0% 11 - 12 8 - 7 F+ -18 F+ -9 D+ C F F -12 D- F C-
 Sun, Feb 15 323 IU Indianapolis W 83 - 78 77% +6  77% 12 - 12 9 - 7 D -8 D- -6 B- F A+ C- -3 C- C+ B-
 Wed, Feb 18 195 @Northern Kentucky L 71 - 87 26% -6  17% 12 - 13 9 - 8 F+ -15 D -5 C- F B- F+ -10 F B+ D+
 Sun, Feb 22 312 @Cleveland St. W 82 - 81 53%
 Wed, Feb 25 149 Wright St. L 74 - 77 39%
 Sat, Feb 28 323 @IU Indianapolis W 84 - 82 57%
Totals 13 - 15 10 - 10 -6 C- -3 F C B- D+ -3 C+ C- D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C D+ C+ C 38% 28% 46% B- C F C- F+ B- D- C- D- D+ D B D D 40% 14% 46% D D- D- C- D B B- D- C+
1.05 57% 36% 34% 0 +1 1.03 21% 1.0 .21 15% .24 70% .17 1.13 63% 35% 37% +4 +1 1.12 35% 1.1 .36 20% .27 76% .18
Nov
3		 Grand Canyon C B+ B F C+ 30% 23% 47% C C+ F A+ D+ C+ F A+ F D B F F F 48% 6% 46% F F A F D- B+ C C+ C
0.95 61% 43% 25% -4 -1 0.92 16% 1.5 .24 17% .16 90% .14 1.20 54% 67% 48% +9 +3 1.26 25% 1.7 .43 20% .33 75% .25
Nov
7		 Ohio St. D+ A+ F F D+ 38% 24% 38% B+ C- F A+ C C- C F D+ D+ F F F F 33% 10% 56% F F A F D A+ A+ C A+
0.94 71% 15% 24% -6 0 0.89 19% 1.4 .28 18% .29 65% .18 1.29 81% 60% 59% +31 +1 1.67 29% 1.5 .43 26% .24 77% .19
Nov
12		 Western Michigan F F+ C F F 30% 13% 57% C- F C- F D- B- D- B D C D A+ B- C 43% 14% 43% F C- F A D+ B+ B- C- B-
0.94 50% 38% 23% -12 0 0.79 29% 0.9 .27 12% .24 75% .18 1.09 60% 25% 32% -2 +1 1.00 43% 0.8 .33 20% .25 73% .18
Nov
18		 Utah B+ A F B+ A- 45% 11% 44% B+ A- B F D C F A- F F+ F B F F 35% 12% 53% C- F D+ A+ B C+ D+ D- D-
1.16 68% 17% 38% +4 +2 1.15 34% 0.7 .23 15% .14 75% .11 1.28 71% 33% 46% +13 +1 1.31 34% 0.7 .24 17% .34 79% .27
Nov
21		 Saint Louis D D A- F F+ 28% 17% 56% C+ D- D- A+ C C F B+ D- D F F F F 35% 6% 59% B D- F A+ C A+ C- F F
0.85 47% 44% 20% -14 0 0.74 19% 1.1 .21 16% .24 79% .19 1.29 72% 67% 43% +15 +2 1.35 48% 0.7 .35 23% .31 94% .29
Nov
25		 Chicago St. B+ A A+ A+ A+ 48% 4% 48% A- A+ D F F D- D B+ C- F B- F C F 25% 38% 38% B D- F F F A+ D- F+ F+
1.32 74% 50% 52% +21 +3 1.50 30% 0.7 .22 22% .30 81% .24 1.13 50% 50% 33% +2 -3 1.00 50% 1.3 .63 25% .31 81% .25
Dec
3		 Oakland B C+ F B+ C+ 37% 11% 52% B+ B- F A- D- A B+ F C+ F F A+ F F 34% 20% 46% B- F C F+ D C D C D+
1.20 63% 29% 38% +4 +1 1.12 22% 1.1 .24 10% .29 65% .19 1.31 89% 9% 42% +11 0 1.23 31% 1.3 .40 14% .36 75% .27
Dec
6		 Northern Kentucky D C B A+ A 48% 22% 30% C A C F F F B F+ C C+ C B- B- C+ 30% 11% 59% C C+ F A- C- A+ D+ F F
1.05 58% 45% 53% +10 +1 1.24 33% 0.5 .15 24% .38 64% .24 1.02 59% 33% 30% -4 +1 0.96 38% 0.9 .32 24% .31 94% .30
Dec
10		 Eastern Michigan B+ C+ F F D 59% 20% 20% B+ D+ D A+ A+ B+ A A A+ C+ D- F C D- 44% 9% 47% F F+ A+ F B- D+ D+ A+ A-
1.21 59% 30% 20% -6 +2 0.94 25% 2.3 .57 14% .40 83% .33 0.98 65% 50% 33% +4 +2 1.13 16% 1.4 .22 17% .27 47% .13
Dec
14		 Detroit Mercy C+ C A+ D+ C+ 45% 8% 47% B+ B- F A- F+ A+ B+ F D D A+ B+ F C 33% 33% 33% D+ C D D D D B F C
1.19 58% 75% 32% +2 +2 1.09 19% 1.3 .25 3% .41 52% .21 1.13 42% 32% 47% -1 -2 0.96 36% 1.0 .36 13% .24 86% .20
Dec
21		 Notre Dame C B- D C+ B- 24% 17% 59% C B- F F F A- C C+ C A+ D- A+ A+ A+ 40% 13% 48% F A D A+ B A C F D
1.03 62% 33% 34% 0 -1 1.02 15% 0.8 .12 11% .28 76% .21 0.99 68% 17% 26% -4 +1 0.96 38% 0.7 .27 22% .31 82% .26
Dec
29		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee F C+ F F F 38% 9% 54% B- F F F F B+ F F F D+ B- C+ C C 37% 22% 41% D+ C- F F F A+ C- F D-
0.82 62% 20% 23% -9 +1 0.88 11% 0.0 .00 13% .17 60% .10 1.14 53% 36% 33% -3 0 0.96 54% 1.3 .69 24% .29 80% .23
Jan
1		 Green Bay F F F C F+ 28% 11% 62% B- D- F A F F+ F F F D D- C D+ D- 41% 12% 46% D D- F+ B D+ B- F F F
0.87 46% 20% 34% -5 +1 0.94 15% 1.4 .21 18% .16 38% .06 1.16 65% 40% 37% +5 +1 1.15 30% 1.0 .30 18% .49 92% .45
Jan
4		 Cleveland St. F+ B F D- F 27% 8% 65% C+ F+ F D+ F B+ B+ B A- C+ A+ A+ D+ B+ 13% 13% 74% B B+ F F F A- A+ F+ A
1.10 69% 25% 31% -1 +1 1.02 26% 1.0 .26 12% .36 81% .29 1.06 33% 17% 37% -2 -1 0.96 42% 1.3 .55 22% .21 82% .17
Jan
7		 Youngstown St. C- D- F A+ C+ 28% 23% 49% D C D F F+ B- B+ B- B+ B- A A+ A+ A+ 44% 6% 50% F+ A+ F F F A C- F+ D+
1.07 54% 27% 43% +3 -1 1.06 26% 0.8 .20 17% .40 77% .31 1.04 48% 0% 25% -14 +2 0.79 41% 1.5 .62 24% .28 79% .22
Jan
11		 Robert Morris A- D+ A+ A+ A+ 28% 23% 49% F+ A D+ A+ B+ D- D- D- F+ D+ C- C- D- D 42% 9% 49% F D- D+ A+ A C- B+ D+ B
1.23 54% 64% 43% +12 -1 1.23 27% 1.4 .38 19% .32 71% .23 1.15 59% 40% 38% +4 +2 1.13 38% 0.7 .27 17% .19 70% .13
Jan
18		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee A+ A- D- A+ A+ 46% 21% 33% C- A+ F+ A+ C A+ D B+ D+ D- B F F F 45% 25% 30% D+ F B- A+ A+ B F F F
1.37 69% 33% 53% +13 0 1.30 23% 1.6 .35 10% .29 79% .23 1.12 50% 62% 44% +7 0 1.15 29% 0.7 .21 18% .35 81% .28
Jan
21		 Detroit Mercy C+ F F A+ B- 35% 15% 50% C- C+ F F F A+ C+ C- C+ C+ D A- D- C- 28% 40% 32% B C B C B- C+ D+ B C-
1.15 47% 25% 44% +2 +1 1.07 23% 0.9 .20 8% .36 71% .26 1.06 63% 30% 39% +1 -3 0.96 28% 0.9 .26 17% .30 72% .22
Jan
28		 Oakland F F A- F+ F 37% 3% 59% A F F A+ C A- F F F B- C+ A+ D- C 52% 8% 40% F D+ C A+ A- C C- B+ C+
0.94 36% 50% 29% -12 +2 0.81 20% 1.7 .34 12% .11 57% .07 1.07 56% 0% 38% -2 +3 1.04 31% 0.8 .25 14% .34 70% .24
Jan
31		 Robert Morris B- D+ F A+ B+ 46% 13% 40% B B+ F C+ F A D- A+ B- B- F A+ A+ B 43% 8% 49% F C+ C+ F F A A- A+ A+
1.19 54% 29% 48% +5 +1 1.15 14% 1.0 .14 11% .32 95% .31 1.02 68% 25% 24% -4 +2 0.98 34% 1.6 .56 23% .17 44% .07
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Youngstown St. F B+ B- F+ C 45% 20% 35% B- C+ F F F A F C- F F F F F F 43% 4% 53% F F A+ F D C- A+ B+ A+
0.96 68% 40% 29% +3 0 1.08 10% 0.0 .00 14% .20 73% .15 1.42 76% 50% 58% +27 +2 1.61 21% 1.8 .37 19% .12 67% .08
Feb
7		 Wright St. C C+ A+ C B+ 32% 23% 45% D B D- F F C- D B+ D+ D+ F C+ A+ C- 44% 19% 37% D+ C- F B- F A- F A+ D-
1.09 60% 64% 33% +6 -1 1.13 23% 0.7 .17 18% .25 77% .19 1.17 74% 38% 25% +2 +1 1.07 48% 1.0 .48 21% .49 58% .28
Feb
12		 Green Bay F+ D+ B D- D 47% 18% 34% B D+ B F+ C F B+ A+ A F C- F D D- 62% 18% 21% F+ D- C F F C- F F F
1.00 56% 43% 31% -2 +1 1.00 36% 1.0 .36 22% .39 83% .33 1.29 58% 57% 38% +5 +2 1.15 24% 2.0 .48 15% .56 82% .46
Feb
15		 IU Indianapolis D- C D+ A+ C 70% 11% 19% A B- F F F A+ B+ F F C- F A C+ C- 29% 17% 53% D+ C- F+ A C+ B- D F F
1.11 61% 33% 50% +6 +4 1.20 18% 0.6 .11 12% .45 47% .21 1.04 71% 30% 32% +1 0 1.03 33% 0.8 .28 17% .23 86% .19
Feb
18		 Northern Kentucky D D+ F C+ D 45% 4% 51% A C- F D F B- B A A- F+ F A+ D F 52% 2% 46% F F C- A+ B+ D+ D+ B- C-
1.00 55% 0% 36% -2 +3 1.04 16% 1.0 .16 18% .38 77% .29 1.22 71% 0% 36% +8 +3 1.24 31% 0.7 .23 15% .32 68% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 3.5 3.5 2nd
3rd 1.2 6.4 7.6 3rd
4th 0.0 11.6 2.6 14.2 4th
5th 5.3 18.9 0.4 24.6 5th
6th 1.2 18.0 4.8 23.9 6th
7th 10.5 13.7 0.3 24.5 7th
8th 1.6 1.6 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 13.4 37.0 36.7 12.9 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 12.9% 7.1% 7.1% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 12.0
11-9 36.7% 4.5% 4.5% 15.6 0.0 0.7 0.9 35.1
10-10 37.0% 2.7% 2.7% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 36.0
9-11 13.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 13.1
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 15.5 96.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 14.9 0.4 19.3 69.3 10.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.4%
Lose Out 6.6%