Purdue Fort Wayne
Horizon
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.7#204
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#190
Pace70.2#116
Improvement-1.3#325

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#214
First Shot-1.1#224
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#181
Layup/Dunks-2.6#288
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#324
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#32
Freethrows-0.3#198
Improvement+1.2#29

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#196
First Shot-1.9#240
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#71
Layups/Dunks-5.3#350
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#103
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#187
Freethrows+2.4#30
Improvement-2.4#362
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.2% 10.5% 8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 92.8% 98.0% 87.6%
.500 or above in Conference 77.8% 89.9% 65.9%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.7% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 0.4% 1.2%
First Round8.8% 10.3% 7.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oakland (Away) - 49.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 33 - 55 - 8
Quad 412 - 417 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 58   @ Michigan L 56-75 11%     0 - 1 -7.3 -14.0 +7.5
  Nov 12, 2022 238   SIU Edwardsville W 81-76 68%     1 - 1 -1.7 -2.6 +0.3
  Nov 18, 2022 50   @ Northwestern L 52-60 10%     1 - 2 +4.6 -13.9 +18.7
  Nov 22, 2022 302   Eastern Michigan W 74-67 72%     2 - 2 -0.8 -4.8 +4.0
  Nov 23, 2022 111   Southern Miss L 58-70 31%     2 - 3 -8.5 -7.5 -2.1
  Dec 01, 2022 222   Detroit Mercy L 66-75 65%     2 - 4 0 - 1 -14.6 -21.4 +7.7
  Dec 03, 2022 249   Oakland W 79-73 OT 71%     3 - 4 1 - 1 -1.4 -7.1 +5.1
  Dec 07, 2022 251   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 89-68 51%     4 - 4 +19.0 +4.9 +11.5
  Dec 10, 2022 136   @ Missouri St. W 65-61 27%     5 - 4 +8.5 +0.7 +8.2
  Dec 19, 2022 319   Texas A&M - Commerce W 85-68 82%     6 - 4 +5.4 +3.7 +1.1
  Dec 20, 2022 270   Southern Indiana W 83-59 74%     7 - 4 +15.7 +9.5 +7.6
  Dec 29, 2022 242   @ Robert Morris L 70-75 49%     7 - 5 1 - 2 -6.5 +0.4 -7.0
  Dec 31, 2022 131   @ Youngstown St. W 76-71 26%     8 - 5 2 - 2 +9.9 +2.2 +7.8
  Jan 05, 2023 362   Green Bay W 79-69 95%     9 - 5 3 - 2 -10.0 +1.2 -10.6
  Jan 07, 2023 214   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 70-74 62%     9 - 6 3 - 3 -9.0 -5.4 -3.5
  Jan 12, 2023 359   @ IUPUI W 70-55 85%     10 - 6 4 - 3 +2.0 -2.1 +5.8
  Jan 16, 2023 180   Cleveland St. L 60-72 55%     10 - 7 4 - 4 -15.1 -8.4 -7.9
  Jan 19, 2023 201   @ Wright St. W 88-80 39%     11 - 7 5 - 4 +9.1 +4.9 +3.3
  Jan 21, 2023 210   @ Northern Kentucky L 54-74 41%     11 - 8 5 - 5 -19.3 -7.8 -14.7
  Jan 25, 2023 359   IUPUI W 81-75 93%     12 - 8 6 - 5 -12.5 -0.8 -11.7
  Jan 27, 2023 180   @ Cleveland St. L 74-79 34%     12 - 9 6 - 6 -2.6 +10.4 -13.6
  Feb 02, 2023 249   @ Oakland W 74-73 50%    
  Feb 04, 2023 222   @ Detroit Mercy L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 10, 2023 131   Youngstown St. L 75-76 46%    
  Feb 12, 2023 242   Robert Morris W 71-66 70%    
  Feb 17, 2023 210   Northern Kentucky W 66-63 62%    
  Feb 19, 2023 201   Wright St. W 77-74 61%    
  Feb 23, 2023 214   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 73-75 41%    
  Feb 25, 2023 362   @ Green Bay W 75-62 88%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 0.9 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.0 3.8 0.4 6.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 8.5 2.4 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 11.6 7.0 0.2 19.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 8.7 10.9 0.8 0.0 20.9 6th
7th 0.2 4.5 11.0 1.9 0.0 17.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 2.3 7.5 3.1 0.0 13.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 3.3 2.3 0.1 7.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 1.3 5.8 14.9 24.1 26.2 18.3 7.7 1.6 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 19.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 1.6% 18.6% 18.6% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.3
13-7 7.7% 16.0% 16.0% 14.5 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 6.5
12-8 18.3% 12.3% 12.3% 14.8 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.2 16.1
11-9 26.2% 9.9% 9.9% 15.2 0.3 1.7 0.7 23.7
10-10 24.1% 7.5% 7.5% 15.4 0.0 1.1 0.7 22.3
9-11 14.9% 5.2% 5.2% 15.8 0.1 0.7 14.1
8-12 5.8% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 5.5
7-13 1.3% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 1.3
6-14 0.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.9 2.6 90.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 18.6% 13.9 0.3 4.5 10.2 3.6
Lose Out 0.1% 1.4% 16.0 1.4