San Diego
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.8 #228
Expected Predictive Rating -6.2 #262
Pace 75.3 #44
Improvement +2.2 #76

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #222 C D+ C C- C
Defense #229 C D+ F A- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #312 1.20 #131 -2.3 #265
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #231 0.62 #319 -1.9 #267
Three Pointers 49% #41 1.00 #195 +3.8 #67
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #192 -0.5 #188
Freethrows 15.2 #288 75% #114 11.4 #259
Second Chance 28.3% #248 1.14 #82 0.32 #164
Turnovers 17.6% #242
Total Offense -2.1 #222

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #136 1.23 #271 -2.5 #265
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #259 0.77 #215 +0.5 #157
Three Pointers 42% #153 0.94 #102 +0.9 #156
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #206 -1.0 #215
Freethrows 19.3 #281 71% #116 13.7 #262
Second Chance 37.3% #349 1.13 #293 0.42 #347
Turnovers 20.1% #33
Total Defense -1.7 #229

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #200 1.0% #267
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.3% #191 0.5% #189
Possession Length 17.3 #176 16.5 #71
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #64 0.26 #355
Improvement -0.5 #215 +2.6 #36

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 15.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.7% 3.5% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 12.0% 18.4% 11.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 13.8% 10.3% 14.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Away) - 10.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 50 - 9
Quad 33 - 74 - 16
Quad 46 - 410 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 178 Idaho St. L 68-71 52%     -7.4   0 - 1 -7.3 -1.9 -5.7
  Wed, Nov 12 181 Idaho W 78-74 52%     4.9   1 - 1 -0.4 +5.1 -5.3
  Tue, Nov 18 243 Grambling St. W 78-68 65%     7.1   2 - 1 +2.2 -1.5 +3.2
  Fri, Nov 21 296 UC Riverside L 71-85 75%     -10.2   2 - 2 -24.7 -5.9 -19.3
  Tue, Nov 25 148 California Baptist L 61-76 34%     -2.2   2 - 3 -14.5 -10.9 -3.4
  Sun, Nov 30 260 @Long Beach St. L 72-76 46%     1.1   2 - 4 -6.7 +5.0 -12.1
  Fri, Dec 5 194 @San Jose St. L 69-86 33%     -17.7   2 - 5 -16.2 -8.1 -7.5
  Tue, Dec 9 48 USC L 81-94 13%     -5.4   2 - 6 -4.7 +3.1 -6.4
  Sat, Dec 13 288 Northern Arizona W 78-69 73%     6.3   3 - 6 -1.1 +4.8 -5.5
  Fri, Dec 19 89 @UC San Diego L 71-84 11%     6.5  
  Mon, Dec 22 50 @Washington L 56-86 6%     -16.3   3 - 7 -16.5 -13.8 -1.1
  Sun, Dec 28 142 Pacific W 66-54 42%     9.2   4 - 7 1 - 0 +10.2 -1.6 +12.8
  Tue, Dec 30 6 Gonzaga L 93-99 3%     -10.2   4 - 8 1 - 1 +11.7 +16.1 -3.7
  Fri, Jan 2 103 @San Francisco L 64-74 14%     -4.0   4 - 9 1 - 2 -2.0 -5.6 +3.8
  Sun, Jan 4 63 @Santa Clara L 70-98 8%     -12.4   4 - 10 1 - 3 -16.2 -2.8 -11.7
  Thu, Jan 8 269 Pepperdine W 76-71 69%    
  Sat, Jan 10 142 @Pacific L 71-79 23%    
  Thu, Jan 15 114 @Seattle L 69-79 17%    
  Wed, Jan 21 144 Washington St. L 76-78 44%    
  Sat, Jan 24 63 Santa Clara L 75-85 19%    
  Wed, Jan 28 269 @Pepperdine L 73-74 47%    
  Sat, Jan 31 197 Oregon St. W 75-73 56%    
  Wed, Feb 4 41 @St. Mary's L 65-84 4%    
  Sat, Feb 7 126 @Loyola Marymount L 69-78 20%    
  Wed, Feb 11 242 Portland W 80-76 64%    
  Sun, Feb 15 103 San Francisco L 71-77 30%    
  Sat, Feb 21 126 Loyola Marymount L 72-75 39%    
  Wed, Feb 25 197 @Oregon St. L 72-76 35%    
  Sat, Feb 28 242 @Portland L 77-79 43%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.6 1.4 0.1 4.8 5th
6th 0.6 3.7 2.9 0.4 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.5 4.0 4.9 1.1 0.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.3 4.3 7.9 2.2 0.1 14.8 8th
9th 0.4 4.9 10.6 4.0 0.2 0.0 20.1 9th
10th 0.4 4.3 9.8 3.7 0.2 18.4 10th
11th 0.3 3.3 6.8 2.7 0.2 13.4 11th
12th 0.4 2.1 2.9 1.3 0.1 6.9 12th
Total 0.4 2.4 6.6 12.8 17.9 19.2 16.8 11.9 7.2 3.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.3% 0.3
11-7 1.1% 1.1
10-8 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 3.3
9-9 7.2% 7.2
8-10 11.9% 11.9
7-11 16.8% 16.8
6-12 19.2% 19.2
5-13 17.9% 17.9
4-14 12.8% 12.8
3-15 6.6% 6.6
2-16 2.4% 2.4
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%