San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -3.4 221
Expected Predictive Rating -4.3 239
Pace 63.1 326
Improvement +0.6 165

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 158 C- C+ B- C- F+
Defense D+ 277 D+ F+ B- C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 339 D+ 55% 259 -5.2 343
2 Pt. Jumpers 50% 50 C 38% 185 +3.4 40
Three Pointers 39% 221 B 37% 67 +0.7 153
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ -1.6 342 C +0.5 151
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 206
Second Chance B- 32.8% 108 C 1.04 154 C+ 0.34 108
Turnovers B- 15.7% 108
Freethrows C- 0.29 246 B- 74% 123 C- 0.21 206
Total Offense C +0.1 158

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 45% 248 C 11.3% 201
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 17% 292 C 5.0% 182
Three Pointers D- 77% 322 C+ 0.7% 139
Total D 48% 320 C+ 5.3% 149

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 126 D- 66% 342 +4.4 324
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 273 C- 39% 232 -0.9 116
Three Pointers 42% 153 C+ 33% 121 -0.4 157
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.5 266 D+ +2.5 275
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 282
Second Chance D- 35.0% 333 D- 1.17 346 F+ 0.41 354
Turnovers B- 18.2% 93
Freethrows C+ 0.29 139 D 75% 323 C 0.22 174
Total Defense D+ -3.5 277

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 317 D- 6.2% 342
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 223 D+ 3.2% 281
Three Pointers D 89% 319 D+ 0.4% 283
Total D+ 61% 300 D- 3.3% 338

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.2 340 17.2 167
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 277 0.20 274
Improvement +0.6 #151 +0.1 #186

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 254 222 188
Conference Record 2 - 18 4 - 16 5 - 15
Conference Finish 11 11 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 2% 0% 2%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Away) - 7.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 6
Quad 21 - 101 - 16
Quad 31 - 72 - 23
Quad 46 - 08 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 102 @Utah L 75 - 84 15% -5  11% 0 - 1 C -1 C+ +2 C+ C- C- C- -3 D D C
 Sat, Nov 8 144 @UC Santa Barbara L 74 - 85 24% -9  3% 0 - 2 D+ -7 B +6 D+ A+ F F -15 F F C
 Thu, Nov 13 11 @Michigan St. L 60 - 79 2% -14  0% 0 - 3 C+ +3 C +1 D+ B- A- C+ +2 B- B- F+
 Fri, Nov 21 267 Southern W 80 - 66 70% +8  90% 1 - 3 B- +5 C +1 C- B- D- B +4 C A- B+
 Tue, Nov 25 77 Tulsa L 51 - 81 15% -13  4% 1 - 4 F -22 F -17 F C F+ F+ -10 D- F C-
 Wed, Nov 26 277 Loyola Chicago W 63 - 51 63% +1  49% 2 - 4 B- +5 D+ -3 D+ D C+ A +11 C- F A+
 Sun, Nov 30 116 UC Irvine L 63 - 72 37% -5  6% 2 - 5 D -9 D+ -4 C- D- A D -6 C- F D+
 Fri, Dec 5 220 San Diego W 86 - 69 61% +18  98% 3 - 5 B +11 C+ +3 A- A+ F A- +7 A+ F D
 Tue, Dec 9 264 Long Beach St. W 89 - 83 OT 70% +1  43% 4 - 5 C- -3 B+ +8 A A C+ F -11 C- F B+
 Sat, Dec 13 75 Stanford L 82 - 86 22% -8  0% 4 - 6 C +1 A- +10 B- A+ A+ F+ -10 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 45 @New Mexico L 65 - 88 6% -10  1% 4 - 7 0 - 1 D -8 C- -1 C C- C D- -8 F F+ C
 Tue, Dec 30 43 San Diego St. L 68 - 81 13% -4  5% 4 - 8 0 - 2 C- -4 C- -2 F+ A- D- C- -2 D+ F A
 Sat, Jan 3 28 @Utah St. L 78 - 96 3% -1  51% 4 - 9 0 - 3 C +0 A+ +17 A+ C+ A+ F -18 F F D
 Tue, Jan 6 133 Fresno St. L 55 - 70 42% -11  1% 4 - 10 0 - 4 F+ -16 F -14 D+ F B D+ -4 D F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 58 @Grand Canyon L 58 - 76 8% -14  0% 4 - 11 0 - 5 D+ -6 F+ -8 C D D+ B- +2 D- D B+
 Tue, Jan 13 347 Air Force W 70 - 62 88% +4  89% 5 - 11 1 - 5 D+ -8 C- -1 D+ B- C+ D -6 D+ F+ A
 Sat, Jan 17 125 UNLV L 62 - 76 39% -7  2% 5 - 12 1 - 6 D- -14 C- -1 C C- F+ F -17 F A+ F+
 Tue, Jan 20 79 @Nevada L 54 - 87 11% -16  0% 5 - 13 1 - 7 F -23 F+ -10 F D- A+ F -18 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 104 @Wyoming L 62 - 66 16% -3  10% 5 - 14 1 - 8 C+ +3 D -5 D F+ A- A- +8 B- A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 27 65 Boise St. L 58 - 89 20% -9  6% 5 - 15 1 - 9 F -25 F -13 F B- D F -14 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 31 45 New Mexico L 80 - 90 14% -7  0% 5 - 16 1 - 10 C -1 A+ +17 B+ A+ A+ F -19 F+ F F
 Sat, Feb 7 96 @Colorado St. L 57 - 65 14% -3  7% 5 - 17 1 - 11 C +0 F -14 F F+ A+ A+ +14 A+ F+ D-
 Tue, Feb 10 125 @UNLV L 75 - 82 20% -4  6% 5 - 18 1 - 12 C -1 C+ +2 F A- A+ D+ -4 C+ D- D-
 Sat, Feb 14 58 Grand Canyon L 79 - 94 18% -6  23% 5 - 19 1 - 13 D -9 A+ +16 A C+ A+ F -26 F F B+
 Tue, Feb 17 79 Nevada W 87 - 71 24% +12  98% 6 - 19 2 - 13 A +20 A +11 A+ A+ F+ A +9 A+ A- A+
 Sat, Feb 21 65 @Boise St. L 64 - 79 8%
 Tue, Feb 24 347 @Air Force W 72 - 65 74%
 Sat, Feb 28 96 Colorado St. L 68 - 74 30%
 Tue, Mar 3 133 @Fresno St. L 69 - 77 22%
 Sat, Mar 7 104 Wyoming L 71 - 76 33%
Totals 8 - 22 4 - 16 -3 C +0 B- C F+ D+ -3 B B- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ C B C 31% 50% 39% F+ C- B- C C+ B- C- B- C- D+ D- C- C+ D+ 41% 18% 42% D+ D+ D- D- F+ B- C+ D C
1.09 55% 38% 37% +1 -2 1.00 33% 1.0 .34 16% .29 74% .21 1.14 66% 39% 33% +2 +1 1.08 35% 1.2 .41 18% .29 75% .21
Nov
3		 Utah C+ B- F C C+ 47% 20% 33% C+ C+ B- F+ C- C- B F D C- F A+ F D 45% 14% 41% D D D- C- D C C- A+ B-
1.07 62% 27% 33% -1 +1 1.02 33% 0.8 .28 16% .30 50% .15 1.20 70% 14% 43% +7 +1 1.20 36% 1.0 .36 16% .32 63% .20
Nov
8		 UC Santa Barbara B D+ A+ F C 32% 32% 36% F D+ A+ A+ A+ F A A A+ F D F F F 37% 22% 41% B- F F D F C D- B- D
1.18 57% 64% 25% +3 -2 1.05 44% 1.5 .64 22% .43 81% .35 1.36 65% 60% 53% +19 0 1.39 42% 1.1 .46 18% .37 74% .27
Nov
13		 Michigan St. C D+ C F+ C- 19% 32% 49% F+ D+ C- A+ B- A- A- D- B C+ F D- A+ B 38% 18% 44% D- B- C B B- F+ F A D
0.91 50% 35% 27% -8 -3 0.81 18% 1.0 .18 14% .31 67% .21 1.19 79% 44% 23% +2 0 1.06 41% 1.0 .41 14% .44 68% .30
Nov
21		 Southern C D C- A+ C+ 30% 36% 34% F C- A- D B- D- A+ C A+ B D+ D+ A C 33% 24% 43% C- C C+ A+ A- B+ A- F B-
1.15 54% 38% 47% +5 -3 1.07 39% 1.0 .39 22% .53 76% .40 0.95 61% 38% 26% -4 -1 0.93 29% 0.7 .21 20% .25 79% .20
Nov
25		 Tulsa F F D- C+ F 29% 35% 35% F F B+ F+ C F+ F+ D+ F+ F+ C+ A+ F D- 48% 6% 46% D D- C+ F F C- A+ C A+
0.83 29% 29% 35% -11 -3 0.75 33% 0.9 .30 20% .20 70% .14 1.32 57% 0% 50% +8 +3 1.23 31% 1.9 .58 15% .19 80% .15
Nov
26		 Loyola Chicago D+ D A+ F D+ 36% 29% 36% D D+ B- F D C+ B F+ C+ A C- B D+ D+ 34% 17% 49% B+ C- C F F A+ B A B+
1.08 50% 62% 25% -1 -1 0.98 33% 0.7 .24 12% .33 71% .23 0.87 58% 33% 35% 0 0 1.03 32% 1.3 .41 36% .27 60% .16
Nov
30		 UC Irvine D+ F F A C 31% 31% 38% D- C- B+ F D- A D+ B+ C- D C+ F A C 55% 24% 22% F C- D+ F F D+ B+ A+ A-
0.95 38% 25% 40% -7 -2 0.85 40% 0.5 .21 14% .23 77% .17 1.08 54% 50% 27% -2 +1 1.00 33% 1.3 .42 17% .25 57% .14
Dec
5		 San Diego C+ A A+ A A+ 32% 34% 34% F A- A+ D- A+ F A+ C- A+ A- B- A+ A+ A+ 20% 19% 61% B- A+ F D- F D D D+ D
1.18 71% 53% 40% +13 -2 1.23 58% 0.9 .54 30% .53 70% .37 0.95 55% 0% 24% -17 -1 0.67 39% 1.1 .43 15% .27 76% .21
Dec
9		 Long Beach St. B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 28% 36% D- A D+ A+ A C+ A+ C- A F D- C- A- C- 40% 25% 35% D- C- F C F B+ B- F C-
1.25 56% 64% 44% +12 -1 1.24 26% 1.9 .48 17% .46 74% .34 1.17 67% 38% 28% 0 0 1.02 50% 1.1 .53 21% .25 86% .21
Dec
13		 Stanford A- A+ C+ C- B+ 26% 43% 30% F B- B+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ B F+ F A+ F F 49% 5% 46% D F F F F A+ F C F
1.19 71% 39% 31% +3 -4 1.00 33% 1.5 .48 12% .33 90% .29 1.24 72% 0% 53% +18 +3 1.43 60% 1.2 .70 29% .59 72% .43
Dec
20		 New Mexico C- F F A+ C+ 21% 31% 48% F+ C C+ D C- C F A- F+ D- F F C+ F 32% 10% 58% B- F A+ F F+ C C F D
0.95 45% 25% 40% -2 -3 0.92 28% 0.9 .25 19% .18 80% .15 1.29 81% 80% 34% +12 +1 1.28 16% 2.5 .40 15% .31 83% .26
Dec
30		 San Diego St. C- F B+ F F 32% 21% 47% C F+ B+ A A- D- A+ A+ A+ C- B C+ F D+ 46% 30% 24% D+ D+ F F F A F B F
0.93 40% 40% 23% -13 -1 0.74 33% 1.1 .36 25% .44 92% .40 1.11 57% 36% 55% +6 -1 1.13 39% 1.4 .54 22% .46 73% .33
Jan
3		 Utah St. A+ C F A+ A+ 38% 23% 38% C+ A+ B+ D- C+ A+ A A+ A+ F D- F F F 57% 9% 35% D- F D- F F D F F F
1.21 56% 27% 50% +6 0 1.13 38% 0.8 .31 16% .40 82% .33 1.49 69% 50% 44% +12 +3 1.33 42% 1.7 .71 12% .46 81% .37
Jan
6		 Fresno St. F A+ F D+ C 20% 26% 54% F D+ F D+ F B F C- F D+ D+ F B- D 48% 17% 35% D D F C F A+ C B B-
0.87 100% 8% 30% -3 -2 0.92 18% 1.0 .18 17% .13 71% .10 1.10 64% 50% 31% +3 +1 1.11 42% 1.0 .42 25% .29 71% .21
Jan
10		 Grand Canyon F+ C F C+ C+ 29% 31% 40% D C D+ D D D+ A F B- B- F A+ B D- 35% 8% 56% D- D- C F+ D B+ C+ F D+
0.83 54% 29% 33% -5 -2 0.89 23% 1.0 .23 20% .39 64% .25 1.09 82% 25% 30% +4 +1 1.13 33% 1.2 .41 20% .32 83% .27
Jan
13		 Air Force C- C D+ B C- 36% 26% 38% D+ D+ C- A B- C+ A+ B+ A+ D F+ A+ D+ D+ 36% 17% 48% B- D+ F B- F+ A D+ F F
1.14 60% 36% 38% +2 -1 1.05 29% 1.3 .36 15% .46 75% .34 1.01 67% 14% 35% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.0 .32 26% .33 80% .27
Jan
17		 UNLV C- D+ F A+ B- 38% 35% 26% F C A+ F C- F+ A A+ A+ F D F F F 36% 19% 45% C+ F A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ F B
1.10 54% 25% 56% +2 -2 1.03 43% 0.7 .30 21% .47 86% .41 1.35 65% 56% 52% +18 0 1.38 22% 0.4 .09 12% .24 92% .22
Jan
20		 Nevada F+ F D+ F F 28% 28% 44% F+ F C F D- A+ C- C- C- F D+ B F F 40% 24% 36% D+ F C- F F F C D C-
0.88 43% 36% 18% -15 -2 0.68 28% 0.9 .25 11% .31 71% .22 1.41 60% 33% 50% +8 0 1.18 35% 1.5 .52 8% .37 81% .30
Jan
24		 Wyoming D F D A- D+ 27% 23% 50% F D F D+ F+ A- F C- F A- D- F A+ B+ 59% 8% 33% F B- C A+ A+ C+ F F F
0.98 36% 33% 38% -4 -1 0.92 15% 0.8 .13 13% .29 69% .20 1.04 65% 67% 15% -3 +3 1.03 37% 0.2 .07 17% .52 89% .46
Jan
27		 Boise St. F D- F C- F+ 24% 33% 43% D- F C A- B- D B+ F C F F F A+ F+ 74% 2% 24% F F F F F C- F A- D
0.87 50% 25% 33% -7 -3 0.84 22% 1.3 .27 18% .33 56% .18 1.33 71% 100% 27% +8 +5 1.28 45% 1.4 .64 15% .44 72% .32
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 New Mexico A+ C- A+ C+ A 17% 26% 57% D- B+ B+ A+ A+ A+ D+ C D+ F F A+ F F 50% 13% 37% D+ F+ B F F F F F F
1.25 56% 57% 33% +4 -2 1.06 32% 1.4 .44 8% .26 73% .19 1.41 70% 17% 47% +10 +2 1.26 28% 1.6 .44 9% .42 88% .36
Feb
7		 Colorado St. F F D+ F F 33% 35% 32% F+ F F A+ F+ A+ F A+ D A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 40% 10% 50% D- A+ C F F+ D- D C+ D+
0.87 42% 35% 17% -15 -2 0.68 8% 2.7 .21 6% .18 91% .16 0.99 58% 20% 17% -15 +1 0.75 32% 1.3 .43 15% .36 75% .27
Feb
10		 UNLV C+ F D+ A D- 26% 37% 37% F F D+ A+ A- A+ D- A C- D+ B F C C+ 41% 20% 39% C C+ D+ D- D- D- C C- C
1.11 29% 35% 40% -5 -3 0.85 27% 1.6 .44 10% .33 80% .26 1.21 52% 60% 35% +3 0 1.08 36% 1.0 .36 13% .36 71% .26
Feb
14		 Grand Canyon A+ B- A+ A- A+ 26% 34% 40% F+ A D A+ C+ A+ A A+ A+ F F F A+ F 38% 26% 36% B+ F F F F B+ D F F+
1.22 58% 50% 37% +6 -3 1.09 21% 1.5 .31 11% .40 83% .33 1.45 83% 67% 24% +11 -1 1.23 54% 1.6 .88 20% .37 84% .31
Feb
17		 Nevada A F A+ A+ A+ 16% 31% 53% F A+ A A+ A+ F+ C+ F D+ A F B+ A+ A+ 36% 28% 36% C+ A+ C+ A A- A+ F C+ F
1.22 38% 53% 46% +11 -3 1.18 39% 1.6 .61 21% .34 63% .21 1.00 71% 31% 12% -10 -1 0.81 33% 0.8 .28 21% .57 75% .43



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 0.3 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 0.1 1.3 10th
11th 9.9 36.2 35.1 15.4 1.6 0.0 98.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 10.0 36.2 35.1 15.5 3.1 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13 0.2% 0.2
6-14 3.1% 3.1
5-15 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.5
4-16 35.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 35.1
3-17 36.2% 36.2
2-18 10.0% 10.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 8.6%