San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#197
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#215
Pace63.8#325
Improvement+1.8#79

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#162
First Shot-1.4#209
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#75
Layup/Dunks-3.6#301
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#7
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#280
Freethrows-1.4#272
Improvement+1.3#88

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#255
First Shot-1.8#229
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#248
Layups/Dunks-4.6#328
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#230
Freethrows+2.9#31
Improvement+0.5#148
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 2.5% 6.6% 1.6%
.500 or above in Conference 6.5% 15.5% 4.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 13.3% 5.5% 15.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Home) - 19.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 91 - 13
Quad 33 - 74 - 20
Quad 46 - 110 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 111 @Utah L 75-84 20%     0 - 1 -2.4 +2.9 -5.3
  Sat, Nov 8 150 @UC Santa Barbara L 74-85 28%     0 - 2 -7.3 +9.1 -17.8
  Thu, Nov 13 16 @Michigan St. L 60-79 3%     0 - 3 +1.4 +2.8 -2.5
  Fri, Nov 21 222 Southern W 80-66 67%     1 - 3 +7.2 +5.2 +2.1
  Tue, Nov 25 92 Tulsa L 51-81 21%     1 - 4 -23.9 -14.6 -13.6
  Wed, Nov 26 270 Loyola Chicago W 63-51 64%     2 - 4 +6.1 -2.6 +11.0
  Sun, Nov 30 131 UC Irvine L 63-72 46%     2 - 5 -10.2 -2.8 -7.9
  Fri, Dec 5 260 San Diego W 86-69 72%     3 - 5 +8.5 +4.8 +3.0
  Tue, Dec 9 275 Long Beach St. W 89-83 OT 74%     4 - 5 -3.2 +8.7 -11.9
  Sat, Dec 13 81 Stanford L 82-86 27%     4 - 6 -0.1 +12.3 -12.4
  Sat, Dec 20 66 @New Mexico L 65-88 11%     4 - 7 0 - 1 -11.8 +0.0 -12.3
  Tue, Dec 30 52 San Diego St. L 67-76 19%    
  Sat, Jan 3 33 @Utah St. L 64-83 4%    
  Tue, Jan 6 184 Fresno St. W 74-72 58%    
  Sat, Jan 10 87 @Grand Canyon L 64-76 13%    
  Tue, Jan 13 322 Air Force W 71-61 84%    
  Sat, Jan 17 133 UNLV L 75-76 46%    
  Tue, Jan 20 89 @Nevada L 65-77 14%    
  Sat, Jan 24 103 @Wyoming L 68-78 18%    
  Tue, Jan 27 51 Boise St. L 65-74 19%    
  Sat, Jan 31 66 New Mexico L 71-79 24%    
  Sat, Feb 7 91 @Colorado St. L 66-77 15%    
  Tue, Feb 10 133 @UNLV L 72-79 26%    
  Sat, Feb 14 87 Grand Canyon L 67-73 29%    
  Tue, Feb 17 89 Nevada L 68-74 31%    
  Sat, Feb 21 51 @Boise St. L 62-77 8%    
  Tue, Feb 24 322 @Air Force W 68-64 66%    
  Sat, Feb 28 91 Colorado St. L 69-74 31%    
  Tue, Mar 3 184 @Fresno St. L 71-75 37%    
  Sat, Mar 7 103 Wyoming L 71-75 36%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.6 0.1 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.3 1.3 0.1 0.0 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 4.1 6.1 4.1 0.8 0.0 16.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.4 8.0 9.2 4.8 1.0 0.1 27.0 10th
11th 0.3 2.5 7.0 10.2 7.7 3.2 0.5 0.0 31.2 11th
12th 0.3 1.5 2.5 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.2 12th
Total 0.3 1.8 5.0 9.6 14.3 16.7 16.7 13.1 9.7 6.3 3.6 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 33.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 8.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.1
13-7 0.3% 1.1% 1.1% 13.0 0.0 0.3
12-8 0.7% 1.3% 1.3% 12.0 0.0 0.7
11-9 1.7% 1.0% 1.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
10-10 3.6% 0.8% 0.8% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
9-11 6.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 6.3
8-12 9.7% 0.1% 0.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 9.7
7-13 13.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.1
6-14 16.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.7
5-15 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.7
4-16 14.3% 14.3
3-17 9.6% 9.6
2-18 5.0% 5.0
1-19 1.8% 1.8
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%