Washington
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.5#75
Expected Predictive Rating+11.3#52
Pace72.6#80
Improvement+2.1#54

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#110
First Shot-1.2#212
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#28
Layup/Dunks+1.9#117
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#140
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#329
Freethrows+1.7#84
Improvement+3.0#13

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#48
First Shot+5.9#28
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#236
Layups/Dunks+5.8#34
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#84
Freethrows+0.6#147
Improvement-0.9#262
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.4% 3.0% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.1% 21.3% 9.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 17.6% 20.7% 9.3%
Average Seed 8.9 8.8 9.3
.500 or above 56.6% 63.7% 37.1%
.500 or above in Conference 19.9% 24.2% 8.2%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 13.3% 8.4% 26.5%
First Four4.2% 4.7% 2.8%
First Round15.9% 18.8% 8.0%
Second Round7.1% 8.5% 3.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 2.3% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.9% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: USC (Home) - 73.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 11
Quad 24 - 47 - 14
Quad 34 - 111 - 15
Quad 45 - 016 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 204   UC Davis W 79-73 87%     1 - 0 +1.1 -4.6 +4.8
  Nov 09, 2024 48   @ Nevada L 53-63 29%     1 - 1 +3.3 -9.6 +12.3
  Nov 17, 2024 154   Umass Lowell W 74-69 83%     2 - 1 +2.3 -2.5 +4.8
  Nov 22, 2024 352   Alcorn St. W 77-60 97%     3 - 1 +1.3 +2.9 -0.2
  Nov 28, 2024 99   Colorado St. W 73-67 58%     4 - 1 +11.4 +5.1 +6.3
  Nov 29, 2024 84   Santa Clara W 76-69 54%     5 - 1 +13.4 +8.4 +5.1
  Dec 03, 2024 18   @ UCLA L 58-69 17%     5 - 2 0 - 1 +6.6 +1.7 +4.0
  Dec 07, 2024 106   USC W 76-70 73%    
  Dec 10, 2024 239   Eastern Washington W 85-70 92%    
  Dec 18, 2024 74   Washington St. W 76-73 61%    
  Dec 23, 2024 123   Seattle W 75-67 78%    
  Dec 29, 2024 347   NJIT W 81-58 98%    
  Jan 02, 2025 19   Maryland L 72-76 35%    
  Jan 05, 2025 14   Illinois L 74-79 34%    
  Jan 09, 2025 27   @ Michigan St. L 67-76 21%    
  Jan 12, 2025 16   @ Michigan L 66-77 17%    
  Jan 15, 2025 21   Purdue L 70-74 36%    
  Jan 21, 2025 22   @ Oregon L 68-78 19%    
  Jan 24, 2025 18   UCLA L 66-70 35%    
  Feb 01, 2025 112   @ Minnesota W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 05, 2025 44   Nebraska L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 08, 2025 66   Northwestern W 68-66 55%    
  Feb 12, 2025 29   @ Ohio St. L 69-78 22%    
  Feb 15, 2025 31   @ Penn St. L 73-81 22%    
  Feb 19, 2025 58   Rutgers W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 22, 2025 50   @ Iowa L 76-82 31%    
  Feb 25, 2025 35   @ Wisconsin L 70-78 24%    
  Mar 01, 2025 39   Indiana L 75-76 45%    
  Mar 05, 2025 106   @ USC W 73-72 51%    
  Mar 09, 2025 22   Oregon L 71-75 37%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.8 0.5 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.2 1.8 1.6 0.1 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 2.7 0.7 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.7 2.1 0.1 5.2 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 3.5 0.8 6.2 11th
12th 0.0 1.0 4.0 2.5 0.2 7.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 3.4 4.0 0.7 0.0 8.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 3.1 4.9 1.9 0.1 10.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.5 3.3 0.5 0.0 12.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.1 3.9 0.8 0.0 12.8 16th
17th 0.1 0.6 2.5 4.1 3.0 0.8 0.0 11.2 17th
18th 0.1 1.0 2.2 2.3 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 7.6 18th
Total 0.1 1.0 2.8 5.4 8.6 11.4 14.1 13.5 12.6 10.7 8.1 5.6 3.2 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 83.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 38.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 12.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 100.0% 16.9% 83.1% 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.4% 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.9% 99.6% 10.0% 89.5% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-7 1.6% 98.0% 5.0% 93.0% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.9%
12-8 3.2% 91.8% 2.7% 89.1% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 91.6%
11-9 5.6% 77.3% 1.8% 75.5% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.0 1.3 76.9%
10-10 8.1% 56.5% 0.8% 55.7% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.4 0.1 3.5 56.2%
9-11 10.7% 22.5% 0.3% 22.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 0.2 8.3 22.3%
8-12 12.6% 6.3% 0.3% 6.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 11.8 6.0%
7-13 13.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.4 0.5%
6-14 14.1% 14.1
5-15 11.4% 11.4
4-16 8.6% 8.6
3-17 5.4% 5.4
2-18 2.8% 2.8
1-19 1.0% 1.0
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 18.1% 0.6% 17.5% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.4 3.3 3.8 4.0 0.5 0.0 81.9 17.6%