Washington
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +11.6 44
Expected Predictive Rating +8.7 68
Pace 68.1 193
Improvement +1.7 125

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 56 B- A- B- C D
Defense B 47 B+ B C- B A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 226 B 64% 62 +1.1 138
2 Pt. Jumpers 44% 104 B+ 44% 37 +4.7 19
Three Pointers 35% 303 C+ 35% 123 -2.3 261
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 311 B +4.5 47
1st FG Attempt B- 1.09 80
Second Chance B+ 36.9% 27 B 1.12 59 A- 0.41 26
Turnovers B- 15.4% 89
Freethrows C- 0.30 209 B 75% 77 C 0.22 165
Total Offense B +6.2 56

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 58% 46 B- 9.1% 79
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 265 C- 6.4% 268
Three Pointers B 91% 43 B- 0.5% 84
Total C 56% 169 C+ 5.3% 148

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 335 C+ 55% 114 -4.9 42
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 16 B- 36% 102 +2.5 343
Three Pointers 40% 228 B+ 30% 28 -3.2 53
Shot Selection/Accuracy A -1.5 14 B -4.0 43
1st FG Attempt B+ 0.91 35
Second Chance B+ 25.5% 28 C+ 0.99 113 B 0.25 40
Turnovers C- 16.2% 212
Freethrows B 0.26 49 B+ 69% 42 B 0.18 37
Total Defense B +5.4 47

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A- 38% 18 C 11.6% 141
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 14% 9 A+ 13.1% 3
Three Pointers A- 76% 20 B 1.7% 55
Total A 43% 8 B+ 8.1% 35

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.8 122 18.2 313
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 62 0.10 16
Improvement +1.4 #116 +0.3 #168

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 57 46 38
Conference Record 6 - 14 8 - 12 10 - 10
Conference Finish 13 12 10
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 11
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9% 13% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9% 12% 3%
Average Seed 10.8 10.7 11.0
.500 or above 74% 85% 50%
.500 or above in Conference 10% 15% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four7% 10% 3%
First Round6% 8% 2%
Second Round2% 3% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 1% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Maryland (Away) - 66.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 10
Quad 26 - 48 - 14
Quad 34 - 212 - 16
Quad 45 - 017 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 328 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 94 - 50 98% +21  96% 1 - 0 A+ +30 B +7 B- A F+ A+ +21 A+ A B+
 Thu, Nov 6 236 Denver W 84 - 70 95% +8  91% 2 - 0 B- +7 C- -1 C B C A- +8 C- A+ A-
 Sun, Nov 9 47 @Baylor L 69 - 78 39% -4  19% 2 - 1 B- +5 D+ -3 D+ C- C A +8 B- A+ D
 Fri, Nov 14 122 @Washington St. W 81 - 69 71% +10  88% 3 - 1 A +18 A+ +16 B+ B+ A- B- +3 A D+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 267 Southern W 99 - 93 2OT 96% -3  26% 4 - 1 C- -3 D+ -4 F B+ B- C -0 B- F B
 Thu, Nov 27 79 Nevada W 83 - 66 67% +7  90% 5 - 1 A+ +24 B+ +8 A C D A+ +15 A+ A- C-
 Fri, Nov 28 72 Colorado L 68 - 81 63% -9  0% 5 - 2 D+ -5 D+ -4 F B A+ C -1 B- D B
 Wed, Dec 3 39 UCLA L 80 - 82 55% -3  29% 5 - 3 0 - 1 B +8 A+ +15 A A+ D- D- -7 F+ F+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 53 @USC W 84 - 76 43% -8  11% 6 - 3 1 - 1 A +21 A +13 C+ A+ B- A- +8 A+ A F
 Sat, Dec 13 273 Southern Utah W 105 - 69 96% +18  97% 7 - 3 A+ +26 A+ +23 A B+ A+ B- +3 D+ A+ F+
 Fri, Dec 19 126 @Seattle L 66 - 70 72% +2  62% 7 - 4 C +2 D -5 D+ F C- A- +7 B+ A C+
 Mon, Dec 22 220 San Diego W 86 - 56 94% +16  98% 8 - 4 A+ +24 C+ +2 F+ A+ B+ A+ +20 A A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 102 Utah W 74 - 65 82% +3  73% 9 - 4 B +11 C -0 B- D C+ A+ +11 A+ D B-
 Sun, Jan 4 37 @Indiana L 80 - 90 31% -7  10% 9 - 5 1 - 2 B- +7 A+ +19 B A+ A+ F -13 D+ F+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 8 @Purdue L 73 - 81 12% -14  0% 9 - 6 1 - 3 A- +16 B +6 B+ B- C A +11 C+ F A+
 Sun, Jan 11 34 Ohio St. W 81 - 74 51% +0  46% 10 - 6 2 - 3 A +18 A+ +16 A- B A+ B +4 A B B-
 Wed, Jan 14 1 Michigan L 72 - 82 13% -8  8% 10 - 7 2 - 4 B+ +14 B+ +8 C+ A+ B- B+ +6 A+ D- F+
 Sat, Jan 17 11 Michigan St. L 63 - 80 32% -8  8% 10 - 8 2 - 5 C -1 C +0 A- B C- C- -2 B B F
 Wed, Jan 21 13 @Nebraska L 66 - 76 17% -10  6% 10 - 9 2 - 6 B+ +12 A- +10 B+ B+ A+ C+ +1 C- A+ C-
 Sun, Jan 25 91 Oregon W 72 - 57 79% +12  94% 11 - 9 3 - 6 A +18 B- +5 A- C C A+ +15 A+ A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 29 5 @Illinois L 66 - 75 10% -5  11% 11 - 10 3 - 7 A- +17 A- +9 A+ D- D- B+ +6 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 31 67 @Northwestern W 76 - 62 51% +8  85% 12 - 10 4 - 7 A+ +25 A- +10 A- A- B- A+ +16 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Feb 4 26 Iowa L 74 - 84 46% -1  43% 12 - 11 4 - 8 C+ +3 A+ +15 A+ A+ B+ F -14 F A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 39 @UCLA L 73 - 77 32% +0  54% 12 - 12 4 - 9 B+ +12 A- +10 B+ A+ C B- +3 A C- D-
 Wed, Feb 11 115 Penn St. L 60 - 63 86% -1  29% 12 - 13 4 - 10 C- -3 F -14 F C C+ A +11 B- A+ A-
 Sat, Feb 14 66 Minnesota W 69 - 57 72% +8  82% 13 - 13 5 - 10 A- +18 B+ +9 A+ A+ D- A +11 B+ B A
 Sat, Feb 21 107 @Maryland W 77 - 72 67%
 Tue, Feb 24 109 @Rutgers W 76 - 71 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 29 Wisconsin L 78 - 79 49%
 Wed, Mar 4 53 USC W 79 - 75 66%
 Sat, Mar 7 91 @Oregon W 73 - 71 59%
Totals 16 - 15 8 - 12 +12 B +6 D- B D B +5 C+ B C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B B B+ C+ B 37% 44% 35% D B- B+ B A- B- C- B C B C+ B- B+ B 32% 29% 40% A B+ B+ C+ B C- B B+ B
1.17 64% 44% 35% +5 -1 1.09 37% 1.1 .41 15% .30 75% .22 1.01 55% 36% 30% -4 -2 0.91 25% 1.0 .25 16% .26 69% .21
Nov
3		 Arkansas Pine Bluff B A F A+ B 29% 21% 50% D- B- A+ D+ A F+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A A+ A A+ 20% 33% 46% A+ A+ D- A+ A B+ A A A+
1.28 71% 20% 42% +6 -1 1.13 52% 1.1 .55 19% .56 73% .41 0.68 45% 17% 28% -14 -3 0.69 31% 0.4 .12 22% .21 67% .14
Nov
6		 Denver C- C- A+ D B- 31% 35% 35% F C C A B C F+ B- D- A- C+ F B- C- 28% 26% 45% C C- B+ A+ A+ A- A A+ A+
1.19 59% 58% 32% +6 -2 1.09 33% 1.4 .45 13% .24 73% .18 0.99 53% 57% 33% +3 -1 1.06 26% 0.8 .20 18% .21 67% .14
Nov
9		 Baylor D+ B- A F C 15% 56% 30% F D+ A F C- C C F D+ A F F+ A- C 16% 43% 41% A+ B- A+ B+ A+ D F B+ F
0.97 63% 50% 19% +1 -6 0.91 38% 0.6 .24 17% .25 67% .17 1.09 88% 50% 29% +6 -5 1.06 21% 1.0 .21 13% .46 69% .32
Nov
14		 Washington St. A+ D+ A+ A- A- 32% 19% 49% C B+ A- C B+ A- A+ B A+ B- C B+ A A+ 38% 12% 50% D A D+ C- D+ F A+ F+ A
1.30 53% 56% 39% +6 0 1.13 34% 1.1 .38 11% .42 78% .33 1.11 63% 33% 28% -3 +1 0.98 32% 1.0 .32 11% .18 80% .14
Nov
18		 Southern D+ C- D- D+ F 36% 38% 26% F F B+ C B+ B- A+ D A+ C C A C C+ 34% 37% 29% A- B- D+ F F B F B F
1.07 57% 32% 33% -3 -2 0.91 39% 1.1 .43 17% .65 72% .47 1.01 57% 26% 33% -5 -2 0.87 32% 1.3 .43 19% .46 65% .30
Nov
27		 Nevada B+ F C+ A+ A- 58% 12% 30% A+ A A F C D A+ B- A+ A+ A+ B D A+ 40% 35% 25% B A+ A+ F+ A- C- C+ A B
1.16 40% 40% 62% +2 +3 1.12 38% 0.8 .32 20% .63 75% .47 0.92 33% 33% 38% -10 -2 0.79 23% 1.2 .28 13% .37 70% .26
Nov
28		 Colorado D+ F F+ C F 40% 28% 32% C F B B- B A+ D- A+ C+ C B- A+ F B 43% 20% 36% C B- D D+ D B F B F
0.99 30% 31% 33% -13 -1 0.74 31% 1.1 .36 9% .24 93% .22 1.18 58% 22% 44% +2 0 1.07 37% 1.0 .37 16% .55 72% .40
Dec
3		 UCLA A+ A A+ C+ A+ 34% 24% 42% C- A A+ A+ A+ D- D B- D D- F D- F F 20% 39% 41% A+ F+ B F F+ D- F B+ D-
1.23 71% 50% 33% +7 -1 1.14 52% 1.4 .74 23% .24 75% .18 1.26 78% 44% 47% +15 -4 1.24 30% 1.6 .48 11% .41 71% .29
Dec
6		 USC A B D+ D- B- 40% 32% 28% D C+ A A+ A+ B- A+ B+ A+ A- A+ A+ C- A+ 31% 31% 38% A A+ A+ D A F C F F
1.15 60% 38% 29% -2 -1 0.96 39% 1.2 .47 16% .41 80% .33 1.04 44% 25% 35% -8 -2 0.83 23% 1.1 .25 11% .43 86% .37
Dec
13		 Southern Utah A+ A- A A+ A+ 35% 27% 38% D A B B B+ A+ A A A+ B- F F A- F+ 28% 35% 37% A+ D+ A- A+ A+ F+ A A+ A+
1.47 67% 50% 48% +14 -1 1.28 37% 1.1 .40 3% .33 78% .26 0.97 75% 45% 29% +4 -3 1.05 23% 0.4 .10 15% .17 50% .08
Dec
19		 Seattle D D A+ F D 52% 27% 21% C+ D+ A- F F C- B+ A+ A A- D+ D- A+ A 51% 13% 36% F+ B+ B- A+ A C+ F F F
0.86 48% 57% 9% -8 0 0.87 38% 0.4 .14 21% .35 81% .28 0.92 63% 43% 16% -7 +2 0.92 23% 0.4 .09 18% .43 78% .34
Dec
22		 San Diego C+ B D F F+ 36% 28% 36% F+ F+ B- A+ A+ B+ A+ A A+ A+ B A+ B A+ 25% 24% 51% B A A+ B+ A+ A+ B A+ A
1.16 67% 36% 22% -4 -1 0.92 38% 1.7 .65 16% .47 79% .37 0.76 54% 25% 31% -7 -1 0.86 18% 0.9 .15 24% .20 55% .11
Dec
29		 Utah C A- A+ F B+ 36% 34% 30% F B- F A+ D C+ A A+ A+ A+ C A B+ A+ 23% 40% 37% A+ A+ D+ D- D B- A- A+ A+
1.08 67% 59% 20% +4 -2 1.06 15% 1.5 .23 15% .34 85% .29 0.95 58% 29% 32% -5 -4 0.85 33% 1.1 .36 17% .25 57% .14
Jan
4		 Indiana A+ A+ C F+ A- 31% 33% 37% D B C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ F F D 38% 14% 48% B- D+ D- D F+ F C D+ C-
1.26 73% 38% 28% +1 -2 1.00 27% 1.8 .47 6% .42 88% .37 1.41 42% 71% 50% +10 +1 1.24 34% 1.2 .41 6% .34 80% .27
Jan
7		 Purdue B A D+ B- B+ 30% 32% 38% C- B+ B- B- B- C C A B- A F D A C+ 39% 33% 27% B+ C+ D F+ F A+ A A A
1.03 69% 35% 35% +3 -2 1.04 26% 1.1 .29 18% .21 75% .16 1.15 80% 47% 29% +9 -2 1.18 41% 1.4 .56 20% .21 67% .14
Jan
11		 Ohio St. A+ B+ A C+ A 28% 36% 36% D A- C A B A+ A+ A+ A+ B D A B+ A+ 33% 29% 38% B- A F A+ B B- A- F B
1.26 64% 50% 33% +6 -3 1.08 29% 1.2 .35 11% .40 83% .33 1.15 71% 33% 30% 0 -1 1.00 46% 0.7 .32 17% .28 87% .24
Jan
14		 Michigan B+ A+ C- F B 9% 38% 54% F C+ A+ A+ A+ B- D+ A+ C B+ F A+ A+ A+ 37% 28% 35% A+ A+ C F+ D- F+ A+ D+ A
1.01 100% 33% 23% -7 -4 0.80 38% 1.4 .52 17% .19 82% .15 1.15 80% 27% 11% -7 -1 0.85 40% 1.5 .60 11% .27 76% .21
Jan
17		 Michigan St. C A+ A+ F A- 37% 27% 37% C A- F A+ B C- C- B+ C C- C D- B+ B- 30% 41% 30% A+ B A- D+ B F A- A A
0.94 72% 54% 17% 0 -1 1.00 10% 2.0 .21 18% .24 77% .18 1.20 63% 45% 31% +3 -3 1.02 34% 1.2 .39 7% .29 67% .19
Jan
21		 Nebraska A- A+ C- D- A- 28% 39% 33% D+ B+ C+ A+ B+ A+ D F D- C+ F D D- D 27% 19% 54% A C- A+ B+ A+ C- B+ C+ B+
1.03 80% 33% 28% +1 -3 0.98 27% 1.1 .30 12% .18 60% .11 1.18 79% 40% 39% +10 -1 1.21 15% 1.0 .15 12% .21 75% .16
Jan
25		 Oregon B- D+ C A+ A+ 17% 42% 42% F A- A+ F C C D+ F F+ A+ F B A+ A- 17% 49% 34% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ F F F
1.12 50% 40% 50% +9 -4 1.13 45% 0.6 .25 17% .24 62% .15 0.89 71% 35% 21% -6 -5 0.80 4% 0.0 .00 16% .52 86% .44
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Illinois A- A+ A+ C A+ 21% 40% 38% D- A+ A+ F D- D- C A+ B+ B+ A- F A+ A+ 38% 10% 52% D+ A+ B F F F B- A+ A
1.08 80% 53% 33% +10 -4 1.15 35% 0.4 .13 16% .16 100% .16 1.23 53% 60% 23% -8 +1 0.88 38% 1.7 .65 8% .28 63% .18
Jan
31		 Northwestern A- D A A+ A 35% 25% 40% C- A- A C A- B- F B F A+ B A+ A A+ 46% 17% 38% F+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ C B- C+
1.16 50% 46% 43% +5 -1 1.10 43% 0.9 .41 17% .15 75% .11 0.94 55% 13% 28% -9 +1 0.85 26% 0.9 .23 18% .34 72% .24
Feb
4		 Iowa A+ A A A A+ 41% 25% 34% C- A+ A- A+ A+ B+ F A+ D- F F D+ F F 35% 27% 38% A F A+ B- A+ F D+ A+ B
1.21 72% 45% 40% +11 0 1.23 35% 1.9 .65 20% .22 82% .18 1.37 82% 46% 50% +20 -1 1.40 17% 1.0 .17 7% .37 62% .23
Feb
7		 UCLA A- C+ A+ D B+ 42% 23% 35% C+ B+ A A+ A+ C B+ F+ B- B- A+ A- F A+ 34% 34% 32% B A D- B C- D- F D F
1.11 60% 55% 29% +2 0 1.06 38% 1.2 .45 20% .34 67% .23 1.17 38% 31% 47% -3 -2 0.91 39% 1.1 .42 11% .49 79% .39
Feb
11		 Penn St. F B F D+ F 30% 37% 33% F F B F C C+ B F D+ A F C- D- D- 16% 57% 27% A+ B- A+ F A+ A- A+ B- A+
0.92 64% 18% 33% -6 -3 0.85 34% 1.1 .37 18% .26 57% .15 0.96 75% 43% 38% +7 -6 1.04 15% 1.5 .22 18% .21 73% .15
Feb
14		 Minnesota B+ A+ A+ F+ A+ 34% 39% 27% F+ A+ B- A+ A+ D- B- F D+ A F F A+ B+ 26% 17% 57% B+ B+ A D- B A A B- A
1.15 79% 69% 27% +16 -3 1.29 30% 1.8 .55 22% .28 54% .15 0.95 82% 57% 21% -2 0 0.98 23% 1.1 .26 22% .26 67% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.4 8th
9th 0.1 2.5 2.7 9th
10th 0.1 4.7 5.3 10.1 10th
11th 0.5 8.8 17.1 1.8 28.1 11th
12th 1.0 13.0 22.3 6.0 0.0 42.3 12th
13th 0.2 4.9 7.3 1.3 13.7 13th
14th 0.8 1.6 0.1 2.4 14th
15th 0.2 0.0 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 1.1 7.5 20.9 32.5 27.9 10.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 10.0% 41.3% 0.2% 41.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.7 0.1 5.9 41.1%
9-11 27.9% 15.9% 0.1% 15.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.6 0.4 23.5 15.8%
8-12 32.5% 2.5% 0.1% 2.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.1 31.7 2.5%
7-13 20.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.8 0.2%
6-14 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 7.5
5-15 1.1% 1.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.5% 0.1% 9.4% 10.8 90.5 9.4%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 94.7% 8.6 2.6 13.2 23.7 39.5 15.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 75.7% 9.4 1.3 9.2 27.6 29.6 7.9
Lose Out 1.1%