San Francisco
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.2 #98
Expected Predictive Rating +3.5 #114
Pace 64.9 #285
Improvement -0.2 #190

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #103 C+ B C+ C C
Defense #107 B- B- D- B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #285 1.17 #162 -2.0 #254
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #261 0.79 #123 -1.2 #239
Three Pointers 49% #38 1.08 #91 +5.5 #32
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #118 +2.2 #117
Freethrows 0.32 #137 69% #299 0.22 #187
Second Chance 33.2% #106 1.15 #54 0.38 #61
Turnovers 15.8% #136
Total Offense +2.8 #103

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #177 1.11 #110 +0.7 #144
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #71 0.73 #128 -1.1 #271
Three Pointers 37% #291 0.96 #98 +3.2 #60
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #84 +2.9 #85
Freethrows 0.28 #95 71% #121 0.20 #91
Second Chance 26.2% #43 1.03 #143 0.27 #67
Turnovers 13.2% #341
Total Defense +2.4 #107

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #157 -0.9% #97
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.8% #115 -4.8% #83
Possession Length 18.3 #272 17.8 #249
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #338 0.15 #110
Improvement -0.5 #212 +0.3 #175

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.1% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.6 11.5 11.7
.500 or above 86.1% 92.1% 71.1%
.500 or above in Conference 71.0% 80.9% 46.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.0% 1.1% 0.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pacific (Home) - 71.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 23 - 54 - 10
Quad 36 - 39 - 14
Quad 48 - 117 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 100 @Memphis L 70 - 76 39% -9  0 - 1 +2 +1 B C D+ +1 B- F+ C
 Wed, Nov 12 148 Portland St. W 80 - 70 76% +12  1 - 1 +8 +12 A- B B -4 A- F+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 127 Bradley W 75 - 64 72% +2  2 - 1 +10 +4 A+ D- F +7 A+ B+ C
 Tue, Nov 18 268 Northwestern St. W 84 - 64 90% +15  3 - 1 +11 +16 A+ D+ A- -2 B+ C D+
 Sat, Nov 22 72 Minnesota W 77 - 65 40% +6  4 - 1 +20 +17 A A B- +4 D+ B B
 Thu, Nov 27 80 Colorado L 69 - 79 42% -1  4 - 2 -3 -1 B- C+ D- -2 C+ B- D-
 Fri, Nov 28 74 Nevada L 65 - 81 40% -5  4 - 3 -8 +1 D+ A+ F -11 D A- F
 Wed, Dec 3 330 North Alabama L 63 - 65 95% +4  4 - 4 -16 -13 F D+ C -3 B+ F B-
 Sun, Dec 7 73 Mississippi St. W 65 - 62 40% +5  5 - 4 +11 +6 D A+ A +6 A- B+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 26 @Saint Louis L 75 - 85 11% -1  5 - 5 +8 +11 B+ B- B -3 B A- D-
 Wed, Dec 17 280 Loyola Chicago W 85 - 71 87% +12  6 - 5 +7 +21 A+ C A+ -12 B D- F
 Sun, Dec 21 356 Morgan St. W 94 - 64 97% +13  7 - 5 +13 +16 D+ A+ C -2 D+ C- C-
 Sun, Dec 28 124 @Seattle W 67 - 59 50% +4  8 - 5 1 - 0 +13 +2 F A+ A+ +11 A+ B- F
 Tue, Dec 30 182 @Oregon St. L 62 - 70 65% -3  8 - 6 1 - 1 -7 -4 F C C -4 F A+ D+
 Fri, Jan 2 208 San Diego W 74 - 64 85% +4  9 - 6 2 - 1 +4 -4 F+ B- A- +8 B- A+ D
 Sun, Jan 4 218 Portland W 73 - 68 86% -4  10 - 6 3 - 1 -1 +1 D- B B- -2 D A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 162 @Loyola Marymount L 82 - 84 2OT 59% -1  10 - 7 3 - 2 +1 +3 D- A- C -2 C+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 281 @Pepperdine W 80 - 60 81% +12  11 - 7 4 - 2 +16 +12 A- C C- +5 A+ B- F
 Tue, Jan 13 42 St. Mary's L 68 - 82 36% -9  11 - 8 4 - 3 -5 +3 B B- C+ -9 C- C- C-
 Sun, Jan 18 131 Washington St. W 85 - 80 73% +0  12 - 8 5 - 3 +4 +17 A A+ F+ -13 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 11 @Gonzaga L 66 - 68 6% -8  12 - 9 5 - 4 +21 +6 A B- D+ +14 A+ A D-
 Wed, Jan 28 50 @Santa Clara L 73 - 88 21% -4  12 - 10 5 - 5 -1 +7 A+ F C -9 D+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 123 Pacific W 73 - 67 71%
 Tue, Feb 3 162 Loyola Marymount W 73 - 65 78%
 Sat, Feb 7 42 @St. Mary's L 65 - 75 18%
 Thu, Feb 12 182 Oregon St. W 75 - 65 83%
 Sun, Feb 15 208 @San Diego W 78 - 73 68%
 Wed, Feb 18 11 Gonzaga L 69 - 81 14%
 Sat, Feb 21 50 Santa Clara L 73 - 76 40%
 Sat, Feb 28 123 @Pacific L 69 - 70 49%
Totals 16 - 14 9 - 9 +5 +3 C+ B C+ +2 B- B- D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.2 2.3 3rd
4th 0.6 10.2 20.6 11.6 2.1 0.1 45.2 4th
5th 0.0 5.2 14.8 4.5 0.2 24.8 5th
6th 1.0 8.7 3.9 0.2 13.7 6th
7th 0.0 3.3 4.5 0.3 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.5 2.7 0.6 0.0 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 1.8 7.5 19.5 29.2 25.4 12.8 3.3 0.3 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.3% 7.9% 6.3% 1.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7%
12-6 3.3% 3.7% 3.4% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.2 0.3%
11-7 12.8% 2.3% 2.3% 11.4 0.2 0.1 12.5
10-8 25.4% 1.2% 1.2% 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 25.1
9-9 29.2% 0.6% 0.6% 11.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 29.0
8-10 19.5% 0.3% 0.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 19.5
7-11 7.5% 0.3% 0.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 7.5
6-12 1.8% 0.3% 0.3% 14.0 0.0 1.8
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 11.6 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.1%