IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
San Francisco
West Coast
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+7.3	#77
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.2	#141
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.5	#82

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+3.8	#77

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.6%	1.6%	0.2%
Top 6 Seed	1.5%	4.1%	0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid	14.8%	24.7%	11.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	6.2%	13.1%	3.8%
Average Seed	9.6	9.0	10.1

.500 or above	82.9%	94.6%	78.5%
.500 or above in Conference	81.7%	89.9%	78.6%
Conference Champion	9.1%	13.7%	7.4%
Last Place in Conference	0.7%	0.3%	0.9%

First Four	2.6%	4.4%	2.0%
First Round	13.4%	22.1%	10.2%
Second Round	5.8%	11.1%	3.7%
Sweet Sixteen	1.4%	3.0%	0.8%
Elite Eight	0.5%	0.9%	0.3%
Final Four	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Memphis (Away) - 27.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	1 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 2	3 - 4	4 - 8
Quad 3	7 - 3	11 - 11
Quad 4	8 - 1	19 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2025	51	@ Memphis	L	72-78	27%
Nov 12, 2025	217	Portland St.	W	77-64	89%
Nov 15, 2025	107	Bradley	W	72-66	70%
Nov 18, 2025	257	Northwestern St.	W	74-59	92%
Nov 22, 2025	87	Minnesota	W	67-66	55%
Nov 27, 2025	84	Colorado	W	71-70	53%
Dec 03, 2025	191	North Alabama	W	77-65	86%
Dec 07, 2025	32	Mississippi St.	L	70-76	30%
Dec 13, 2025	70	@ Saint Louis	L	70-74	36%
Dec 17, 2025	94	Loyola Chicago	W	72-67	66%
Dec 21, 2025	358	Morgan St.	W	88-63	98%
Dec 28, 2025	121	@ Seattle	W	69-67	56%
Dec 30, 2025	117	@ Oregon St.	W	69-68	54%
Jan 02, 2026	180	San Diego	W	83-71	83%
Jan 04, 2026	265	Portland	W	82-66	91%
Jan 08, 2026	135	@ Loyola Marymount	W	72-69	59%
Jan 10, 2026	244	@ Pepperdine	W	78-69	78%
Jan 13, 2026	49	St. Mary's	L	63-64	47%
Jan 17, 2026	128	Washington St.	W	80-72	75%
Jan 24, 2026	18	@ Gonzaga	L	71-83	16%
Jan 28, 2026	106	@ Santa Clara	L	73-74	51%
Jan 31, 2026	219	Pacific	W	78-64	88%
Feb 03, 2026	135	Loyola Marymount	W	75-66	77%
Feb 07, 2026	49	@ St. Mary's	L	60-67	28%
Feb 10, 2026	117	Oregon St.	W	72-65	72%
Feb 15, 2026	180	@ San Diego	W	80-74	68%
Feb 18, 2026	18	Gonzaga	L	74-80	30%
Feb 21, 2026	106	Santa Clara	W	77-71	69%
Feb 28, 2026	219	@ Pacific	W	75-67	74%
Projected Record						18 - 11	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected West Coast Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.3	1.3	2.7	2.8	1.6	0.3		9.1	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	1.6	4.8	6.1	3.9	0.9	0.0			17.6	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.6	3.1	6.9	5.7	2.2	0.2					18.7	3rd
4th									0.0	0.6	3.7	6.5	4.2	1.1	0.1						16.3	4th
5th								0.0	0.4	3.2	5.2	2.8	0.5	0.0							12.0	5th
6th								0.3	2.4	4.3	2.0	0.2	0.0								9.2	6th
7th							0.2	1.6	3.1	1.5	0.2										6.6	7th
8th						0.1	0.9	2.2	1.2	0.1											4.5	8th
9th					0.1	0.6	1.4	0.9	0.2												3.1	9th
10th				0.0	0.4	0.8	0.4	0.1													1.7	10th
11th		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0														0.8	11th
12th		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0															0.3	12th

Total		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.8	2.9	5.0	7.3	9.7	11.7	12.9	13.3	11.9	9.7	6.8	3.8	1.6	0.3			Total

West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
17-1	99.6%	1.6		1.4	0.2
16-2	75.4%	2.8		1.8	1.0	0.0
15-3	40.2%	2.7		1.2	1.3	0.2
14-4	13.2%	1.3		0.4	0.6	0.3	0.1
13-5	2.5%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-6	0.2%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	9.1%	9.1		5.2	3.1	0.7	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.3%		93.5%	50.0%	43.5%	4.5		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0								0.0		87.1%
17-1	1.6%		86.8%	43.8%	43.0%	6.5		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1						0.2		76.5%
16-2	3.8%		70.3%	38.1%	32.3%	8.4				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.6	0.3	0.0					1.1		52.1%
15-3	6.8%		50.0%	26.8%	23.2%	9.8					0.0		0.1	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.0				3.4		31.6%
14-4	9.7%		30.1%	17.5%	12.6%	10.4							0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	1.0	1.4	0.1	0.0				6.8		15.2%
13-5	11.9%		16.5%	11.9%	4.6%	10.8									0.0	0.1	0.4	1.1	0.3					9.9		5.2%
12-6	13.3%		8.5%	7.1%	1.4%	11.0										0.0	0.2	0.7	0.2	0.0				12.2		1.5%
11-7	12.9%		4.5%	3.9%	0.6%	11.2										0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0				12.3		0.6%
10-8	11.7%		2.4%	2.2%	0.1%	11.7										0.0		0.1	0.1	0.0		0.0		11.4		0.1%
9-9	9.7%		1.1%	1.1%		12.2												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		9.6
8-10	7.3%		0.7%	0.7%		12.4												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			7.2
7-11	5.0%		0.3%	0.3%		15.0															0.0		0.0	5.0
6-12	2.9%																							2.9
5-13	1.8%																							1.8
4-14	0.8%																							0.8
3-15	0.3%																							0.3
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18

Total	100%		14.8%	9.1%	5.7%	9.6		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.7	1.0	1.5	3.7	5.1	1.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	85.2		6.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	1.3	66.7	33.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	3.7			33.3	66.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	4.0				100.0