San Francisco
West Coast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.6#88
Expected Predictive Rating+4.8#101
Pace72.1#82
Improvement+0.7#97

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#78
First Shot+4.8#50
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#281
Layup/Dunks-1.1#227
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#329
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#6
Freethrows+1.0#103
Improvement+1.0#41

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#108
First Shot+0.6#154
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#43
Layups/Dunks-0.1#187
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#237
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#63
Freethrows-1.8#312
Improvement-0.2#223
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 5.8% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.3 13.3
.500 or above 99.7% 100.0% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 50.2% 82.8% 45.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round4.3% 5.7% 4.1%
Second Round0.8% 1.2% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Away) - 11.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 6
Quad 23 - 23 - 8
Quad 36 - 310 - 10
Quad 48 - 217 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 314   Texas Southern W 90-77 93%     1 - 0 +2.1 +1.6 -1.4
  Nov 10, 2022 298   Cal Poly W 60-48 92%     2 - 0 +1.7 -20.5 +21.2
  Nov 16, 2022 169   @ Fresno St. W 67-60 61%     3 - 0 +9.8 -0.5 +10.4
  Nov 21, 2022 160   Northern Iowa W 75-69 70%     4 - 0 +6.3 +0.7 +5.4
  Nov 22, 2022 109   Wichita St. W 67-63 58%     5 - 0 +7.7 +1.8 +6.0
  Nov 25, 2022 123   @ Davidson L 80-89 51%     5 - 1 -3.6 +12.0 -15.9
  Nov 30, 2022 332   Arkansas Little Rock W 90-68 95%     6 - 1 +9.1 +2.8 +4.8
  Dec 04, 2022 47   Utah St. L 64-82 34%     6 - 2 -8.0 -10.3 +3.1
  Dec 07, 2022 337   Merrimack W 69-51 95%     7 - 2 +4.6 -2.8 +7.8
  Dec 12, 2022 54   New Mexico L 64-67 35%     7 - 3 +6.6 -2.5 +8.9
  Dec 17, 2022 76   @ UNLV W 75-73 35%     8 - 3 +11.7 +6.7 +4.9
  Dec 19, 2022 274   Texas Arlington L 63-68 90%     8 - 4 -13.5 -13.2 -0.3
  Dec 21, 2022 66   Arizona St. W 97-60 50%     9 - 4 +42.6 +25.7 +15.7
  Dec 22, 2022 360   Hartford W 85-53 98%     10 - 4 +12.3 +5.8 +7.6
  Dec 29, 2022 93   @ Santa Clara L 67-79 41%     10 - 5 0 - 1 -3.9 -3.1 -0.8
  Dec 31, 2022 216   San Diego L 68-80 84%     10 - 6 0 - 2 -17.0 -12.4 -4.6
  Jan 05, 2023 13   Gonzaga L 75-77 26%     10 - 7 0 - 3 +10.2 +5.1 +5.1
  Jan 07, 2023 91   @ Loyola Marymount W 72-70 40%     11 - 7 1 - 3 +10.2 +6.7 +3.5
  Jan 12, 2023 166   @ Portland L 87-92 60%     11 - 8 1 - 4 -2.1 +6.2 -7.9
  Jan 14, 2023 12   St. Mary's L 61-78 26%     11 - 9 1 - 5 -4.7 +1.1 -7.0
  Jan 19, 2023 208   Pacific W 78-57 83%     12 - 9 2 - 5 +16.5 +1.9 +14.8
  Jan 21, 2023 81   BYU W 82-74 57%     13 - 9 3 - 5 +11.8 +10.4 +1.1
  Jan 28, 2023 216   @ San Diego W 94-81 69%     14 - 9 4 - 5 +13.5 +13.8 -0.8
  Feb 02, 2023 12   @ St. Mary's L 59-71 12%    
  Feb 04, 2023 93   Santa Clara W 79-76 62%    
  Feb 09, 2023 13   @ Gonzaga L 74-86 12%    
  Feb 11, 2023 190   Pepperdine W 83-73 82%    
  Feb 16, 2023 208   @ Pacific W 80-75 66%    
  Feb 23, 2023 166   Portland W 82-74 78%    
  Feb 25, 2023 81   @ BYU L 71-75 36%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 5.9 2.3 0.2 9.8 3rd
4th 1.0 13.2 8.7 0.8 0.0 23.6 4th
5th 0.2 9.2 14.0 1.0 0.0 24.4 5th
6th 0.0 3.3 15.4 2.5 0.0 21.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 9.2 4.6 0.1 14.9 7th
8th 0.2 2.4 2.6 0.1 5.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.3 3.8 15.3 30.3 31.1 15.6 3.2 0.3 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.3% 17.0% 9.6% 7.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.2%
10-6 3.2% 7.5% 7.3% 0.3% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.9 0.3%
9-7 15.6% 5.6% 5.6% 12.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 14.7
8-8 31.1% 4.6% 4.6% 12.8 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 29.7
7-9 30.3% 3.5% 3.5% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 29.3
6-10 15.3% 3.4% 3.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 14.8
5-11 3.8% 2.7% 2.7% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.7
4-12 0.3% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 95.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 17.0% 10.8 1.5 2.2 11.1 2.2
Lose Out 0.3% 2.4% 16.0 2.4