Portland
West Coast
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#255
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#165
Pace74.0#74
Improvement+0.9#101

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#275
First Shot-1.2#209
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#304
Layup/Dunks-4.2#313
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#75
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#268
Freethrows+3.8#14
Improvement+1.5#44

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#222
First Shot-0.1#175
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#260
Layups/Dunks+0.2#188
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#322
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#166
Freethrows+1.9#78
Improvement-0.6#250
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 11.1% 14.9% 4.8%
.500 or above in Conference 3.0% 3.7% 1.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 45.6% 42.3% 51.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Home) - 62.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 6
Quad 21 - 41 - 10
Quad 32 - 63 - 16
Quad 410 - 312 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 97   @ Arizona St. L 60-76 11%     0 - 1 -7.7 -14.8 +8.4
  Nov 13, 2021 316   Alcorn St. W 62-58 74%     1 - 1 -7.8 -14.7 +6.9
  Nov 18, 2021 357   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 86-74 94%     2 - 1 -10.7 -1.5 -9.9
  Nov 20, 2021 315   Morgan St. W 74-63 74%     3 - 1 -0.8 -7.1 +5.9
  Nov 23, 2021 272   @ Portland St. W 69-54 43%     4 - 1 +12.0 -6.0 +17.4
  Nov 26, 2021 184   Montana St. L 66-69 35%     4 - 2 -4.1 +0.8 -5.4
  Nov 27, 2021 304   Southeast Missouri St. W 74-68 62%     5 - 2 -2.0 -7.3 +5.1
  Nov 28, 2021 350   @ Incarnate Word W 77-68 74%     6 - 2 -2.8 -5.9 +2.9
  Dec 03, 2021 257   VMI W 73-70 62%    
  Dec 13, 2021 314   Cal Poly W 71-64 73%    
  Dec 15, 2021 45   @ Oregon L 62-80 5%    
  Dec 17, 2021 294   San Jose St. W 76-71 68%    
  Dec 19, 2021 184   @ Montana St. L 70-77 27%    
  Dec 22, 2021 211   @ UC Davis L 71-77 29%    
  Jan 01, 2022 20   BYU L 64-80 7%    
  Jan 06, 2022 129   @ Loyola Marymount L 67-77 17%    
  Jan 08, 2022 79   Santa Clara L 72-81 22%    
  Jan 13, 2022 154   @ San Diego L 66-75 21%    
  Jan 15, 2022 236   @ Pepperdine L 70-74 34%    
  Jan 20, 2022 50   San Francisco L 66-77 16%    
  Jan 22, 2022 20   @ BYU L 61-83 2%    
  Jan 27, 2022 189   Pacific L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 29, 2022 1   @ Gonzaga L 65-95 0.4%   
  Feb 03, 2022 41   St. Mary's L 58-70 13%    
  Feb 05, 2022 50   @ San Francisco L 63-80 6%    
  Feb 12, 2022 129   Loyola Marymount L 70-74 35%    
  Feb 17, 2022 154   San Diego L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 19, 2022 236   Pepperdine W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 24, 2022 189   @ Pacific L 65-72 28%    
  Feb 26, 2022 79   @ Santa Clara L 69-84 10%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 4 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.0 2.2 0.5 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 5.7 4.3 0.6 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 2.9 9.1 5.8 0.9 0.0 18.9 8th
9th 0.5 5.4 12.0 7.7 1.0 0.1 26.6 9th
10th 3.5 10.2 11.9 5.1 0.7 31.4 10th
Total 3.5 10.6 17.4 20.1 19.2 13.3 8.6 4.2 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0%
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0% 0.0
11-5 0.1% 0.1
10-6 0.2% 0.2
9-7 0.8% 0.8
8-8 1.9% 1.9
7-9 4.2% 4.2
6-10 8.6% 8.6
5-11 13.3% 13.3
4-12 19.2% 19.2
3-13 20.1% 20.1
2-14 17.4% 17.4
1-15 10.6% 10.6
0-16 3.5% 3.5
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%