Portland
West Coast
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#166
Expected Predictive Rating+0.1#167
Pace72.7#71
Improvement-1.7#340

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#86
First Shot+4.0#66
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#238
Layup/Dunks-3.7#319
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#257
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#16
Freethrows+3.6#8
Improvement-0.5#276

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#265
First Shot-1.4#228
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#317
Layups/Dunks+2.2#90
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#247
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#345
Freethrows+1.7#65
Improvement-1.2#328
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 1.9% 3.7% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 10.1% 17.9% 3.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.2% 1.0% 7.0%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.5%
First Round0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Away) - 47.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 7
Quad 21 - 41 - 11
Quad 34 - 55 - 16
Quad 47 - 112 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 358   Florida A&M W 91-54 95%     1 - 0 +18.7 +6.3 +9.6
  Nov 11, 2022 247   Portland St. W 98-91 76%     2 - 0 -0.2 +9.2 -10.2
  Nov 14, 2022 73   @ Kent St. L 65-77 18%     2 - 1 -2.1 -6.4 +5.4
  Nov 17, 2022 168   @ Air Force W 64-51 40%     3 - 1 +15.8 -1.0 +18.0
  Nov 19, 2022 142   Seattle L 68-80 55%     3 - 2 -13.1 -5.1 -7.6
  Nov 24, 2022 26   North Carolina L 81-89 12%     3 - 3 +4.9 +11.6 -6.5
  Nov 25, 2022 62   Villanova W 83-71 22%     4 - 3 +20.4 +14.4 +6.2
  Nov 27, 2022 39   Michigan St. L 77-78 21%     4 - 4 +7.7 +17.7 -10.2
  Dec 03, 2022 322   North Dakota W 90-69 87%     5 - 4 +9.1 +8.3 +0.4
  Dec 05, 2022 241   North Dakota St. L 62-67 75%     5 - 5 -11.9 -17.0 +5.1
  Dec 10, 2022 348   New Orleans W 100-61 91%     6 - 5 +24.0 +4.8 +13.6
  Dec 17, 2022 48   @ Oregon L 56-78 12%     6 - 6 -9.3 -13.4 +4.9
  Dec 22, 2022 158   @ UC Riverside L 65-76 39%     6 - 7 -7.9 -4.8 -3.4
  Dec 29, 2022 91   Loyola Marymount L 72-92 40%     6 - 8 0 - 1 -17.3 -4.3 -11.7
  Dec 31, 2022 81   @ BYU L 58-71 19%     6 - 9 0 - 2 -3.7 -4.6 +0.4
  Jan 07, 2023 12   @ St. Mary's L 43-85 6%     6 - 10 0 - 3 -24.3 -15.0 -12.3
  Jan 12, 2023 88   San Francisco W 92-87 40%     7 - 10 1 - 3 +7.9 +13.3 -5.8
  Jan 14, 2023 13   @ Gonzaga L 75-115 6%     7 - 11 1 - 4 -22.4 +1.4 -20.4
  Jan 19, 2023 216   San Diego W 88-83 69%     8 - 11 2 - 4 +0.0 +10.8 -10.7
  Jan 21, 2023 190   Pepperdine W 91-76 65%     9 - 11 3 - 4 +11.1 +15.9 -4.8
  Jan 26, 2023 91   @ Loyola Marymount L 60-79 22%     9 - 12 3 - 5 -10.8 -5.3 -6.6
  Jan 28, 2023 13   Gonzaga L 67-82 13%     9 - 13 3 - 6 -2.8 -1.6 -1.6
  Feb 02, 2023 216   @ San Diego L 81-82 48%    
  Feb 04, 2023 190   @ Pepperdine L 81-82 44%    
  Feb 09, 2023 208   Pacific W 83-78 68%    
  Feb 11, 2023 12   St. Mary's L 62-74 13%    
  Feb 18, 2023 93   Santa Clara L 79-81 42%    
  Feb 23, 2023 88   @ San Francisco L 74-82 22%    
  Feb 25, 2023 208   @ Pacific L 80-81 46%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 6 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.1 3rd
4th 0.5 3.4 0.9 0.1 4.9 4th
5th 0.2 5.2 3.7 0.1 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 4.3 10.0 0.8 15.2 6th
7th 0.0 2.6 15.5 3.8 0.0 21.9 7th
8th 4.3 18.3 9.1 0.2 31.8 8th
9th 2.2 8.2 4.5 0.1 15.0 9th
10th 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.9 10th
Total 2.8 12.8 25.4 29.2 19.7 8.2 1.7 0.2 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.2% 2.2% 2.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
9-7 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 1.7
8-8 8.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 8.1
7-9 19.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 19.5
6-10 29.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 29.0
5-11 25.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 25.3
4-12 12.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.7
3-13 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 2.2% 13.5 1.1 1.1
Lose Out 2.8% 0.2% 16.0 0.2