Portland
West Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.6#309
Expected Predictive Rating-6.5#274
Pace72.2#90
Improvement+0.7#138

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#298
First Shot-0.1#182
After Offensive Rebound-4.5#354
Layup/Dunks-5.9#339
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#126
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#50
Freethrows+0.3#161
Improvement+1.9#48

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#276
First Shot-3.4#289
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#157
Layups/Dunks-0.8#198
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#317
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#335
Freethrows+4.4#4
Improvement-1.2#279
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.9% 2.4% 1.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 36.6% 33.0% 41.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UMKC (Home) - 58.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 6
Quad 20 - 40 - 10
Quad 31 - 71 - 17
Quad 47 - 58 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 126   UC Santa Barbara L 53-94 26%     0 - 1 -41.9 -24.0 -16.7
  Nov 12, 2024 22   @ Oregon L 70-80 OT 2%     0 - 2 +7.3 -3.4 +12.0
  Nov 16, 2024 304   @ Long Beach St. W 63-61 38%     1 - 2 -2.4 -2.3 +0.2
  Nov 21, 2024 148   South Florida L 68-74 22%     1 - 3 -5.4 -5.6 +0.3
  Nov 22, 2024 157   Ohio L 73-85 23%     1 - 4 -11.7 -10.4 +0.1
  Nov 24, 2024 108   Princeton L 67-94 14%     1 - 5 -23.1 -10.3 -11.3
  Dec 01, 2024 321   Denver W 101-90 2OT 66%     2 - 5 -1.0 -0.4 -3.0
  Dec 06, 2024 110   @ Kent St. L 57-76 10%     2 - 6 -12.4 -5.1 -8.9
  Dec 10, 2024 292   UMKC W 71-69 58%    
  Dec 18, 2024 244   Cal St. Bakersfield L 69-70 49%    
  Dec 21, 2024 231   Lafayette L 68-69 47%    
  Dec 28, 2024 74   Washington St. L 69-81 13%    
  Dec 30, 2024 76   @ Oregon St. L 61-79 5%    
  Jan 02, 2025 1   @ Gonzaga L 62-94 0.2%   
  Jan 04, 2025 42   St. Mary's L 60-76 7%    
  Jan 09, 2025 64   @ San Francisco L 61-81 4%    
  Jan 16, 2025 277   Pacific W 73-71 56%    
  Jan 18, 2025 74   @ Washington St. L 66-84 5%    
  Jan 23, 2025 312   San Diego W 75-72 62%    
  Jan 25, 2025 1   Gonzaga L 65-91 1%    
  Jan 30, 2025 181   @ Loyola Marymount L 66-76 20%    
  Feb 01, 2025 258   @ Pepperdine L 71-76 32%    
  Feb 06, 2025 84   Santa Clara L 69-80 16%    
  Feb 13, 2025 76   Oregon St. L 64-76 14%    
  Feb 15, 2025 181   Loyola Marymount L 69-73 38%    
  Feb 19, 2025 42   @ St. Mary's L 57-79 3%    
  Feb 22, 2025 277   @ Pacific L 70-74 35%    
  Feb 27, 2025 258   Pepperdine W 74-73 53%    
  Mar 01, 2025 312   @ San Diego L 72-75 41%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.0 3.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.8 7.0 6.5 2.1 0.2 0.0 17.7 8th
9th 0.1 2.7 9.9 7.5 1.7 0.1 0.0 22.0 9th
10th 0.3 4.4 11.5 6.8 1.2 0.0 24.2 10th
11th 1.9 6.9 9.4 4.7 0.6 0.0 23.5 11th
Total 1.9 7.2 13.9 18.9 19.1 16.4 11.4 6.4 3.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 0.5% 0.5
9-9 1.2% 1.2
8-10 3.0% 3.0
7-11 6.4% 6.4
6-12 11.4% 11.4
5-13 16.4% 16.4
4-14 19.1% 19.1
3-15 18.9% 18.9
2-16 13.9% 13.9
1-17 7.2% 7.2
0-18 1.9% 1.9
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%