Grambling St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.5 293
Expected Predictive Rating -8.3 299
Pace 66.8 233
Improvement -3.0 302

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- 346 D D+ F B- C
Defense C 168 C- D+ B D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 148 D+ 54% 278 -0.9 216
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 119 D- 32% 339 -1.0 237
Three Pointers 39% 218 D+ 32% 282 -2.3 259
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 195 D -4.1 313
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 309
Second Chance D+ 27.8% 254 D+ 0.96 279 D+ 0.27 276
Turnovers F 21.0% 355
Freethrows B- 0.33 101 C+ 73% 157 B- 0.24 107
Total Offense D- -7.6 346

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 47% 206 F 17.4% 362
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 271 D- 8.2% 334
Three Pointers F+ 73% 354 C 0.9% 177
Total D+ 50% 297 F 9.0% 365

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 78 C- 60% 240 +3.4 292
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 323 B 35% 70 -2.4 18
Three Pointers 42% 156 C- 35% 218 +0.8 226
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.9 334 C- +0.8 215
1st FG Attempt C- 1.06 238
Second Chance D 33.9% 312 C- 1.05 226 D+ 0.36 294
Turnovers B 19.2% 52
Freethrows D 0.35 301 C- 73% 209 D 0.25 300
Total Defense C +0.1 168

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 319 D 7.0% 325
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 188 C- 3.7% 248
Three Pointers B- 81% 87 B- 1.5% 64
Total D+ 60% 276 D+ 4.2% 294

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 196 17.2 175
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 126 0.21 303
Improvement -5.7 #360 +2.8 #54

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 314 291 257
Conference Record 7 - 11 8 - 10 10 - 8
Conference Finish 11 7 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8% 13% 6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 12% 24% 6%
.500 or above in Conference 47% 74% 33%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four7% 10% 6%
First Round5% 7% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Southern (Away) - 33.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 412 - 1113 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 7 @Iowa St. L 62 - 102 1% -16  1% 0 - 1 F+ -15 D -4 C D- D F+ -8 D+ D B-
 Sun, Nov 9 215 @Howard W 73 - 70 24% +1  52% 1 - 1 C+ +3 B +7 B A+ F D+ -4 F F A+
 Thu, Nov 13 245 Southern Miss W 75 - 70 50% +6  84% 2 - 1 C- -2 C- -2 A D F C -1 A+ F D
 Tue, Nov 18 220 @San Diego L 68 - 78 25% -7  1% 2 - 2 D -10 F -12 F D+ D+ B- +2 B- A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 21 139 @California Baptist L 59 - 72 14% -13  1% 2 - 3 D -9 D- -7 C F F D+ -3 F C+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 279 @UC Riverside L 74 - 83 36% +1  53% 2 - 4 D- -13 C- -1 F+ C- A- F -12 F D B-
 Tue, Dec 2 163 @Tulane L 63 - 65 17% -0  32% 2 - 5 C +1 C- -2 D+ B+ F B- +3 B+ D+ D-
 Mon, Dec 8 245 @Southern Miss L 60 - 68 28% +1  64% 2 - 6 D -9 F -13 D F+ F B- +3 D- C A+
 Thu, Dec 18 306 Norfolk St. W 80 - 68 55% +14  99% 3 - 6 C+ +3 D+ -3 C+ F A B+ +5 A- D+ D+
 Fri, Dec 19 257 Hampton W 81 - 72 42% +7  95% 4 - 6 C+ +4 A- +9 B+ A+ F D -5 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 23 34 @Ohio St. L 63 - 89 2% -13  1% 4 - 7 D -9 D+ -3 D- B+ F D -6 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 334 Prairie View W 76 - 72 74% +4  92% 5 - 7 1 - 0 D -10 F -10 C- D F C -0 C D- A+
 Mon, Jan 5 297 Texas Southern W 84 - 67 63% +9  87% 6 - 7 2 - 0 B- +6 B- +4 B+ A- D+ B- +3 A+ F A
 Sat, Jan 10 241 @Bethune-Cookman L 65 - 74 28% -8  11% 6 - 8 2 - 1 D -10 F -13 D+ F F B- +3 C+ F A
 Mon, Jan 12 333 @Florida A&M L 84 - 91 53% -3  24% 6 - 9 2 - 2 F+ -15 B- +4 C- B+ B- F -19 F F B
 Sat, Jan 17 267 Southern L 53 - 71 56% -11  0% 6 - 10 2 - 3 F -27 F -26 F C F C -1 D- A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 31 332 @Jackson St. W 69 - 66 53% +3  73% 7 - 10 3 - 3 D+ -5 D- -7 D F D- B- +2 C C C-
 Mon, Feb 2 349 @Alcorn St. W 74 - 50 61% +13  96% 8 - 10 4 - 3 B+ +14 C+ +2 D+ B D A+ +15 A+ C F
 Wed, Feb 4 328 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 64 - 67 73% -4  4% 8 - 11 4 - 4 F+ -17 F -16 F D D- C -0 B F C+
 Sat, Feb 7 309 Alabama St. W 57 - 47 66% +3  62% 9 - 11 5 - 4 C- -2 F -16 F+ F C- A+ +16 A+ B+ C-
 Mon, Feb 9 307 Alabama A&M L 58 - 66 66% -10  0% 9 - 12 5 - 5 F -20 F -20 F C- D C -1 D+ C A-
 Sat, Feb 14 297 @Texas Southern L 79 - 82 40% -2  29% 9 - 13 5 - 6 D+ -8 C +1 B- F D- F+ -9 F F A-
 Mon, Feb 16 334 @Prairie View L 63 - 68 53% -3  29% 9 - 14 5 - 7 D- -13 F -16 F A F B- +3 B+ F D+
 Sat, Feb 21 267 @Southern L 68 - 73 33%
 Mon, Feb 23 365 Mississippi Valley W 76 - 57 97%
 Thu, Feb 26 241 Bethune-Cookman L 68 - 69 50%
 Sat, Feb 28 333 Florida A&M W 71 - 64 74%
 Tue, Mar 3 307 @Alabama A&M L 66 - 68 43%
 Thu, Mar 5 309 @Alabama St. L 68 - 70 43%
Totals 12 - 17 8 - 10 -7 D- -8 B- D C C +0 D+ C+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- D+ D- D+ D 39% 42% 39% C D D+ D+ D+ F B- C+ B- C C- B C- C- 43% 16% 42% D C- D C- D+ B D C- D
0.98 54% 32% 32% -4 0 0.94 28% 1.0 .27 21% .33 73% .24 1.08 60% 35% 35% +1 +1 1.06 34% 1.1 .36 19% .35 73% .24
Nov
6		 Iowa St. D C D D+ C 42% 36% 22% C- C F A- D- D A+ C A+ F+ C F F C- 42% 9% 49% D- D+ F+ C+ D B- F B+ F
0.83 58% 31% 30% -4 -2 0.91 16% 1.2 .19 25% .41 70% .29 1.36 64% 60% 42% +11 +2 1.26 44% 1.1 .47 16% .46 62% .29
Nov
9		 Howard B C- F A+ B 48% 10% 43% B B B A+ A+ F B+ D+ B D+ B- F F F 50% 18% 33% D+ F F D- F A+ C- F+ D
1.13 55% 0% 44% +2 +2 1.10 37% 1.4 .52 26% .40 68% .27 1.08 50% 57% 54% +9 +1 1.23 43% 1.2 .52 29% .35 81% .28
Nov
13		 Southern Miss C- B- A+ A A- 54% 6% 40% A+ A D- C D F D A- C- C A+ A- A+ A+ 57% 14% 29% F A+ F F F D F A+ D
1.08 62% 67% 42% +9 +3 1.25 21% 1.0 .21 24% .30 75% .23 1.00 43% 29% 14% -18 +2 0.69 44% 1.2 .54 16% .49 62% .31
Nov
18		 San Diego F F+ F+ F F 45% 32% 23% D- F B- F D+ D+ A+ F A- B- F A+ C+ B- 22% 18% 60% C+ B- C- A+ A+ A- F F F
0.92 52% 33% 18% -10 -1 0.81 38% 0.9 .33 20% .53 58% .31 1.05 90% 0% 33% 0 -1 1.00 30% 0.4 .12 22% .55 97% .53
Nov
21		 California Baptist D- B+ B F C- 40% 18% 43% B- C F+ F F F A+ A+ A+ D+ F F F+ F 61% 7% 32% F F B- C C+ A+ F+ C+ D-
0.91 63% 43% 24% -4 +1 0.95 17% 0.0 .00 22% .46 91% .42 1.12 68% 67% 38% +10 +3 1.29 35% 0.9 .30 28% .37 71% .26
Nov
24		 UC Riverside C- F A+ D F+ 41% 27% 33% D F+ F+ A+ C- A- A+ C A+ F F B F F 50% 20% 30% D F B- F D B- F D F
1.07 40% 54% 31% -5 -1 0.92 23% 1.3 .29 12% .54 70% .38 1.20 73% 33% 46% +12 +1 1.27 24% 1.2 .28 20% .56 77% .43
Dec
2		 Tulane C- A+ B F D+ 26% 17% 57% C- D+ C- A+ B+ F A+ C A B- B A+ C B+ 38% 22% 40% C+ B+ F A D+ D- C- C+ C-
1.02 73% 43% 25% -3 0 0.95 32% 1.3 .43 24% .43 70% .30 1.05 53% 20% 33% -6 0 0.89 31% 0.9 .29 11% .38 76% .29
Dec
8		 Southern Miss F D- F A+ D 49% 22% 29% C+ D A+ F F+ F A+ F A B- F D A+ D- 45% 26% 30% F+ D- D B+ C A+ A D A-
0.87 50% 0% 58% -2 +1 1.00 42% 0.4 .16 31% .52 60% .31 0.99 76% 42% 14% 0 0 1.02 34% 0.9 .31 25% .27 79% .21
Dec
18		 Norfolk St. D+ A- F A B- 41% 19% 41% D+ C+ F C- F A D+ A- C B+ C- A+ A+ A 46% 26% 28% D A- D C D+ D+ F+ A+ B+
1.08 73% 10% 41% +5 0 1.13 7% 1.0 .07 12% .34 77% .26 0.92 57% 23% 21% -10 0 0.82 34% 1.0 .34 18% .41 44% .18
Dec
19		 Hampton A- A- A+ F B 61% 15% 24% A B+ B+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ D F B F F 39% 28% 33% C- F F A+ A+ A- F F+ F
1.22 72% 50% 20% +5 +2 1.17 36% 1.3 .48 23% .58 77% .45 1.08 72% 31% 40% +6 -1 1.13 42% 0.4 .16 23% .45 78% .35
Dec
23		 Ohio St. D+ F B- F F+ 33% 26% 41% B- D- B B B+ F A+ C+ A+ D F F D F 44% 20% 36% F+ F F A+ A+ A+ F F+ F
0.94 40% 42% 26% -10 -1 0.80 33% 1.1 .36 22% .44 74% .33 1.33 85% 78% 38% +22 +1 1.47 43% 0.6 .24 21% .47 84% .40
Jan
3		 Prairie View F A F A+ C+ 33% 37% 30% F C- D+ D D F A+ F A+ C B A D C+ 33% 31% 35% C C F B+ D- A+ F D+ F
1.02 71% 25% 46% +5 -3 1.07 33% 1.0 .33 27% .64 66% .42 0.96 50% 27% 35% -6 -2 0.88 34% 0.9 .32 24% .48 78% .37
Jan
5		 Texas Southern B- A F A+ A 25% 18% 57% D- B+ A C- A- D+ A D B+ B- A+ B A- A+ 34% 30% 36% B A+ D F F A A- F C
1.20 73% 25% 44% +10 -1 1.20 43% 1.1 .46 17% .47 67% .31 0.96 41% 33% 28% -10 -2 0.78 30% 2.1 .63 23% .22 92% .20
Jan
10		 Bethune-Cookman F A- C+ F D+ 41% 20% 39% D+ D+ D+ F F F B+ B+ A B- B- A D+ B- 48% 24% 28% C- C+ F+ F+ F A D- C D-
0.87 65% 40% 21% -4 0 0.94 29% 0.2 .06 24% .39 77% .30 0.99 54% 25% 36% -4 0 0.94 33% 1.2 .38 23% .38 68% .26
Jan
12		 Florida A&M B- C D- B- D+ 50% 18% 32% C+ C- D A+ B+ B- A A- A+ F F F C F 28% 21% 51% C F F F F B F F F
1.16 60% 33% 38% +2 +1 1.08 28% 1.4 .40 17% .43 85% .36 1.26 77% 70% 33% +12 -1 1.23 37% 1.3 .48 23% .47 81% .38
Jan
17		 Southern F F D F F 53% 9% 38% A+ F B- D C F A+ F+ A+ C B D F+ D+ 46% 10% 44% F D- B- A+ A+ B- F+ A+ C-
0.76 28% 33% 23% -23 +3 0.62 35% 1.0 .35 33% .68 69% .47 1.02 50% 40% 38% -1 +2 1.04 28% 0.6 .17 19% .39 59% .23
Jan
31		 Jackson St. D- F F A+ D+ 29% 17% 54% D+ D C+ F F D- F C- F+ B- D+ B B+ C 27% 27% 47% C+ C C C C C- F B- F
1.05 50% 13% 42% 0 0 1.02 38% 0.7 .25 18% .26 71% .19 1.00 58% 33% 29% -5 -2 0.89 26% 1.0 .26 18% .56 73% .41
Feb
2		 Alcorn St. C+ C+ F C+ D+ 43% 15% 43% C- D+ C- A+ B D F C+ F A+ A A+ A+ A+ 49% 17% 34% F A+ B D C F F A- F+
1.18 65% 29% 35% +2 +1 1.09 36% 1.5 .54 21% .24 75% .18 0.80 43% 0% 25% -18 +1 0.68 22% 1.0 .22 14% .35 63% .22
Feb
4		 Arkansas Pine Bluff F C+ A+ F F 40% 19% 40% C- F C+ F D D- F C- F C C A B+ B+ 39% 24% 37% C- B C- F F C+ F B- D-
0.95 62% 50% 10% -11 0 0.81 37% 0.9 .34 18% .27 73% .20 0.99 56% 27% 29% -6 0 0.89 26% 1.4 .38 19% .38 71% .27
Feb
7		 Alabama St. F F D+ C- F 32% 7% 61% B- F+ F D F C- C- D+ C- A+ A+ A+ A A+ 44% 15% 41% F A+ D A+ B+ C- A A+ A+
0.90 43% 33% 33% -6 +1 0.93 18% 1.0 .18 19% .35 72% .25 0.74 29% 13% 27% -21 +1 0.63 35% 0.6 .19 17% .19 50% .10
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
9		 Alabama A&M F F+ F F F 40% 11% 49% B- F D- B+ C- D A+ A+ A+ C A- C- D- C 45% 18% 36% F D+ C- C+ C A- F B- F
0.87 50% 0% 18% -19 +1 0.67 26% 1.1 .29 18% .49 89% .44 0.99 45% 38% 38% -4 +1 0.95 25% 1.0 .25 21% .46 71% .32
Feb
14		 Texas Southern C A- A+ C- B- 37% 10% 53% C+ B- F F F D- B- C- C+ F+ F B F F 46% 13% 41% F F B- F F A- F B F
1.12 68% 60% 33% +6 +1 1.16 23% 0.7 .16 18% .40 70% .28 1.17 71% 33% 47% +14 +1 1.33 23% 1.8 .42 21% .49 67% .33
Feb
16		 Prairie View F F F A+ F 40% 38% 23% F F C+ A+ A F F A+ F B- D+ A A+ A- 42% 38% 21% C B+ D F F D+ F D- F
0.89 32% 28% 45% -10 -2 0.77 38% 1.4 .53 24% .21 91% .19 0.96 60% 28% 10% -11 -2 0.77 26% 1.6 .42 14% .48 79% .38



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.3 2.0 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.3 1.1 3.4 3rd
4th 0.3 6.0 0.1 6.4 4th
5th 3.7 4.5 8.3 5th
6th 0.2 12.6 1.1 13.9 6th
7th 7.7 11.5 0.1 19.2 7th
8th 1.2 15.8 1.2 18.1 8th
9th 0.0 6.2 6.2 0.0 12.4 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 8.2 0.7 10.1 10th
11th 0.2 3.1 2.4 0.0 5.8 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 4.4 18.0 30.6 29.3 14.3 3.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 2.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 3.2% 20.9% 20.9% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 2.6
10-8 14.3% 17.6% 17.6% 16.0 0.1 2.5 11.8
9-9 29.3% 14.0% 14.0% 16.0 4.1 25.2
8-10 30.6% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.9 29.7
7-11 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.0
6-12 4.4% 4.4
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 16.0 91.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 15.6 0.5 37.9 61.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%
Lose Out 0.2%