Grambling St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.6#226
Expected Predictive Rating-7.1#282
Pace67.0#238
Improvement-1.9#304

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#274
First Shot-2.4#244
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#252
Layup/Dunks-1.7#248
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#110
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#193
Freethrows-1.4#262
Improvement+0.8#121

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#162
First Shot-0.9#202
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#106
Layups/Dunks-4.5#327
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#98
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#42
Freethrows-2.3#315
Improvement-2.7#351
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.4% 30.4% 23.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 69.0% 81.2% 58.7%
.500 or above in Conference 94.6% 96.8% 92.8%
Conference Champion 35.3% 41.3% 30.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four12.2% 11.5% 12.8%
First Round20.9% 25.2% 17.2%
Second Round0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Away) - 45.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 7
Quad 416 - 617 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 26   @ Mississippi L 64-66 4%     0 - 1 +14.5 -3.4 +17.9
  Nov 11, 2024 10   @ Florida L 62-86 2%     0 - 2 -3.5 -6.1 +3.6
  Nov 21, 2024 65   @ New Mexico L 58-80 8%     0 - 3 -9.9 -16.2 +8.8
  Nov 24, 2024 106   @ USC L 69-80 16%     0 - 4 -3.9 +2.5 -6.9
  Nov 26, 2024 228   @ Cal Poly L 79-82 39%     0 - 5 -3.7 +5.9 -9.6
  Dec 07, 2024 258   @ Pepperdine L 69-70 46%    
  Dec 16, 2024 227   SE Louisiana W 68-65 61%    
  Dec 19, 2024 348   Delaware St. W 74-65 79%    
  Dec 20, 2024 153   Norfolk St. L 66-70 37%    
  Dec 22, 2024 25   @ Cincinnati L 57-78 3%    
  Jan 04, 2025 357   @ Prairie View W 80-72 76%    
  Jan 06, 2025 294   @ Texas Southern W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 11, 2025 288   Bethune-Cookman W 72-66 71%    
  Jan 13, 2025 353   Florida A&M W 73-61 87%    
  Jan 18, 2025 234   @ Southern L 66-69 41%    
  Jan 25, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 71-56 91%    
  Jan 27, 2025 362   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 81-70 83%    
  Feb 01, 2025 315   Jackson St. W 72-64 76%    
  Feb 03, 2025 352   Alcorn St. W 73-61 86%    
  Feb 08, 2025 285   @ Alabama St. L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 10, 2025 360   @ Alabama A&M W 75-67 76%    
  Feb 15, 2025 294   Texas Southern W 71-65 71%    
  Feb 17, 2025 357   Prairie View W 83-69 89%    
  Feb 22, 2025 234   Southern W 69-66 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 353   @ Florida A&M W 70-64 71%    
  Mar 03, 2025 288   @ Bethune-Cookman W 69-68 50%    
  Mar 06, 2025 360   Alabama A&M W 78-64 89%    
  Mar 08, 2025 285   Alabama St. W 73-67 70%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.3 7.0 10.0 9.4 4.7 1.6 35.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.9 7.3 6.9 2.8 0.4 20.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.9 4.5 1.1 0.1 14.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.8 3.6 0.7 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.6 7.5 10.5 13.2 14.9 15.0 12.8 9.8 4.7 1.6 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 100.0% 4.7    4.6 0.1
16-2 96.2% 9.4    8.1 1.2 0.0
15-3 78.0% 10.0    6.7 3.1 0.3
14-4 46.7% 7.0    2.9 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 15.5% 2.3    0.4 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 35.3% 35.3 24.4 8.5 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 59.9% 59.9% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6
17-1 4.7% 54.3% 54.3% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.3 2.2
16-2 9.8% 45.0% 45.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.6 5.4
15-3 12.8% 38.6% 38.6% 15.6 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.3 7.9
14-4 15.0% 31.7% 31.7% 15.9 0.0 0.6 4.2 10.3
13-5 14.9% 23.8% 23.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 3.4 11.3
12-6 13.2% 18.6% 18.6% 16.0 0.0 2.4 10.8
11-7 10.5% 15.2% 15.2% 16.0 0.0 1.6 8.9
10-8 7.5% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 0.7 6.7
9-9 4.6% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.3 4.3
8-10 2.8% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.1 2.7
7-11 1.5% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 1.5
6-12 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.4% 26.4% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 5.4 17.9 73.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 11.9 23.8 66.7 9.5