Grambling St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#240
Expected Predictive Rating-1.5#198
Pace69.4#139
Improvement-1.5#333

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#300
First Shot-5.2#327
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#100
Layup/Dunks+0.4#152
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#163
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#339
Freethrows-0.5#209
Improvement+0.1#177

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#170
First Shot+0.2#166
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#190
Layups/Dunks+4.3#37
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#88
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#290
Freethrows-2.4#329
Improvement-1.6#350
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.0% 36.1% 28.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 98.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.9% 98.7%
Conference Champion 15.9% 19.7% 6.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.4% 9.6% 12.6%
First Round28.7% 31.2% 22.0%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama St. (Away) - 72.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 12 - 4
Quad 30 - 12 - 5
Quad 415 - 518 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 61   Colorado W 83-74 17%     1 - 0 +14.9 +8.2 +5.8
  Nov 18, 2022 116   @ Grand Canyon L 48-81 18%     1 - 1 -27.4 -25.0 -1.5
  Nov 22, 2022 66   @ Arizona St. L 49-80 9%     1 - 2 -19.9 -15.2 -5.3
  Nov 25, 2022 312   @ Texas San Antonio W 75-55 55%     2 - 2 +14.6 -1.2 +16.0
  Nov 27, 2022 344   Incarnate Word L 61-63 77%     2 - 3 -13.8 -13.9 -0.1
  Nov 28, 2022 275   Dartmouth W 73-49 57%     3 - 3 +18.1 -0.1 +18.4
  Dec 03, 2022 344   Incarnate Word W 72-39 84%     4 - 3 +18.4 -5.3 +24.5
  Dec 09, 2022 97   @ Vanderbilt W 64-62 14%     5 - 3 +9.6 +2.0 +7.9
  Dec 17, 2022 49   @ Virginia Tech L 48-74 7%     5 - 4 -13.3 -16.5 +1.7
  Dec 19, 2022 70   @ Liberty L 56-75 9%     5 - 5 -8.1 -8.9 +0.4
  Jan 02, 2023 287   @ Prairie View L 60-61 49%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -5.0 -10.2 +5.2
  Jan 04, 2023 314   @ Texas Southern W 85-72 55%     6 - 6 1 - 1 +7.5 +10.4 -3.1
  Jan 07, 2023 354   Bethune-Cookman W 76-70 88%     7 - 6 2 - 1 -10.8 -3.7 -6.9
  Jan 09, 2023 358   Florida A&M W 62-57 90%     8 - 6 3 - 1 -13.3 -8.2 -4.5
  Jan 14, 2023 233   @ Southern L 73-81 38%     8 - 7 3 - 2 -9.0 -5.4 -2.7
  Jan 21, 2023 361   @ Mississippi Valley W 65-61 83%     9 - 7 4 - 2 -10.5 -17.1 +6.3
  Jan 23, 2023 331   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 77-70 62%     10 - 7 5 - 2 -0.4 +4.3 -4.6
  Jan 28, 2023 327   Jackson St. W 78-66 78%     11 - 7 6 - 2 -0.2 +10.2 -8.8
  Jan 30, 2023 289   Alcorn St. L 60-63 70%     11 - 8 6 - 3 -12.5 -6.9 -6.2
  Feb 04, 2023 353   @ Alabama St. W 71-64 73%    
  Feb 06, 2023 347   @ Alabama A&M W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 11, 2023 314   Texas Southern W 71-64 75%    
  Feb 13, 2023 287   Prairie View W 68-63 70%    
  Feb 18, 2023 233   Southern L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 25, 2023 358   @ Florida A&M W 66-57 78%    
  Feb 27, 2023 354   @ Bethune-Cookman W 75-68 74%    
  Mar 02, 2023 347   Alabama A&M W 75-64 85%    
  Mar 04, 2023 353   Alabama St. W 73-61 87%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.5 7.3 5.8 15.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 6.5 15.2 11.4 1.3 35.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 7.0 14.4 9.6 2.0 0.0 33.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 5.2 1.9 0.2 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 3.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.9 5.6 13.6 23.1 27.5 20.7 7.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 80.9% 5.8    3.0 2.5 0.3
14-4 35.4% 7.3    2.2 3.8 1.2 0.0
13-5 9.2% 2.5    0.3 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.9% 15.9 5.6 7.6 2.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 7.2% 52.0% 52.0% 14.9 0.1 0.8 2.4 0.4 3.5
14-4 20.7% 45.2% 45.2% 15.5 0.4 4.0 5.0 11.4
13-5 27.5% 37.3% 37.3% 15.7 0.1 2.5 7.6 17.3
12-6 23.1% 28.9% 28.9% 15.9 0.0 0.9 5.8 16.4
11-7 13.6% 20.7% 20.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.6 10.8
10-8 5.6% 16.2% 16.2% 16.0 0.0 0.9 4.7
9-9 1.9% 12.7% 12.7% 16.0 0.2 1.6
8-10 0.4% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
7-11 0.0% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 34.0% 34.0% 0.0% 15.6 0.1 1.4 10.0 22.6 66.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.2% 52.0% 14.9 0.8 11.5 33.7 6.0