Seattle
Western Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#142
Expected Predictive Rating+4.4#109
Pace72.2#81
Improvement-0.8#276

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#224
First Shot-1.7#242
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#155
Layup/Dunks-1.5#242
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#295
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#84
Freethrows-0.7#239
Improvement-1.8#354

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#93
First Shot+2.0#114
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#89
Layups/Dunks-2.6#282
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#180
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#42
Freethrows+0.8#119
Improvement+1.0#45
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.0% 7.7% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.4 13.9
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 97.8% 99.7% 96.1%
Conference Champion 8.2% 14.0% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round7.0% 7.7% 6.5%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Away) - 46.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 37 - 48 - 9
Quad 410 - 118 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 262   @ UC San Diego W 85-71 66%     1 - 0 +11.3 +15.7 -3.6
  Nov 13, 2022 247   Portland St. W 83-71 80%     2 - 0 +4.8 +0.2 +3.8
  Nov 19, 2022 166   @ Portland W 80-68 45%     3 - 0 +14.9 +3.2 +11.3
  Nov 28, 2022 102   @ Washington L 66-77 30%     3 - 1 -3.9 -4.9 +1.5
  Nov 30, 2022 154   Cal St. Fullerton W 69-62 64%     4 - 1 +4.9 +2.7 +2.8
  Dec 10, 2022 322   @ North Dakota W 80-78 OT 78%     5 - 1 -4.4 -4.3 -0.2
  Dec 15, 2022 185   @ Oregon St. L 58-73 49%     5 - 2 -13.1 -10.5 -3.1
  Dec 18, 2022 289   Alcorn St. W 72-58 85%     6 - 2 +4.5 -3.2 +8.1
  Dec 22, 2022 47   Utah St. L 56-84 21%     6 - 3 -18.0 -15.8 -2.0
  Dec 23, 2022 85   Iona L 72-83 34%     6 - 4 -5.1 -5.5 +1.5
  Dec 25, 2022 191   George Washington W 85-67 61%     7 - 4 +16.8 +4.9 +11.2
  Dec 31, 2022 156   California Baptist W 71-65 64%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +3.8 -1.4 +5.2
  Jan 05, 2023 279   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 66-64 69%     9 - 4 2 - 0 -1.6 -13.6 +11.9
  Jan 07, 2023 274   @ Texas Arlington W 76-61 67%     10 - 4 3 - 0 +11.9 +14.8 -0.4
  Jan 12, 2023 184   New Mexico St. W 69-66 69%     11 - 4 4 - 0 -0.4 -6.4 +6.0
  Jan 14, 2023 99   @ Utah Valley W 85-80 29%     12 - 4 5 - 0 +12.4 +12.8 -0.6
  Jan 19, 2023 187   Tarleton St. W 67-47 70%     13 - 4 6 - 0 +16.3 -3.4 +20.7
  Jan 21, 2023 114   Southern Utah W 81-60 55%     14 - 4 7 - 0 +21.4 +0.4 +19.3
  Jan 26, 2023 82   @ Sam Houston St. L 40-55 23%     14 - 5 7 - 1 -5.7 -20.6 +12.5
  Jan 28, 2023 135   @ Stephen F. Austin L 65-79 39%     14 - 6 7 - 2 -9.4 -10.0 +1.7
  Feb 01, 2023 218   Abilene Christian L 68-83 74%     14 - 7 7 - 3 -20.0 -8.3 -11.7
  Feb 04, 2023 184   @ New Mexico St. L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 08, 2023 211   Utah Tech W 75-69 73%    
  Feb 11, 2023 116   Grand Canyon W 69-68 56%    
  Feb 15, 2023 156   @ California Baptist L 65-67 43%    
  Feb 18, 2023 99   Utah Valley L 69-70 50%    
  Feb 24, 2023 116   @ Grand Canyon L 66-70 35%    
  Mar 01, 2023 211   @ Utah Tech W 72-71 53%    
  Mar 03, 2023 274   Texas Arlington W 72-62 83%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.1 1.1 8.2 1st
2nd 0.1 3.2 7.0 1.8 0.0 12.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.3 10.5 4.8 0.2 17.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 9.9 8.7 0.8 0.0 20.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 6.1 10.5 1.9 0.0 18.9 5th
6th 0.1 2.9 7.8 2.7 0.0 13.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.2 2.2 0.1 6.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.1 2.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.2 2.0 7.6 17.4 25.6 24.7 15.3 6.1 1.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 98.4% 1.1    0.8 0.3 0.0
14-4 66.8% 4.1    1.2 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 17.5% 2.7    0.2 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1
12-6 1.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.2% 8.2 2.2 3.0 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.1% 14.2% 14.1% 0.2% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.2%
14-4 6.1% 11.5% 11.5% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 5.4
13-5 15.3% 9.6% 9.6% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 13.8
12-6 24.7% 7.6% 7.6% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 22.8
11-7 25.6% 6.1% 6.1% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 24.0
10-8 17.4% 4.9% 4.9% 14.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 16.5
9-9 7.6% 4.4% 4.4% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.3
8-10 2.0% 3.1% 3.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
7-11 0.2% 0.2
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.0 1.0 0.0 93.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 14.2% 12.2 2.5 6.5 4.9 0.4
Lose Out 0.2%