Seattle
Western Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#123
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#225
Pace67.0#236
Improvement+1.4#88

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#156
First Shot-1.3#217
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#75
Layup/Dunks-5.6#336
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#177
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#180
Freethrows+4.5#12
Improvement-0.6#233

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#119
First Shot+0.5#156
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#104
Layups/Dunks-3.1#286
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#230
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#62
Freethrows+0.4#163
Improvement+2.0#39
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.3% 23.9% 17.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.2 13.8
.500 or above 65.4% 78.3% 54.3%
.500 or above in Conference 85.9% 89.5% 82.8%
Conference Champion 25.8% 30.5% 21.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.8% 1.6%
First Four0.5% 0.2% 0.7%
First Round20.2% 23.8% 17.0%
Second Round2.3% 3.1% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UTEP (Away) - 46.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 35 - 67 - 11
Quad 49 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 239   @ Eastern Washington L 86-93 63%     0 - 1 -8.2 +6.6 -14.6
  Nov 09, 2024 70   Liberty L 64-66 40%     0 - 2 +3.0 +0.1 +2.8
  Nov 14, 2024 228   @ Cal Poly L 71-75 62%     0 - 3 -4.7 -5.4 +0.9
  Nov 16, 2024 102   @ UC San Diego W 84-71 31%     1 - 3 +20.6 +20.8 +0.7
  Nov 26, 2024 119   Furman L 56-61 49%     1 - 4 -2.3 -7.8 +4.8
  Nov 29, 2024 2   @ Duke L 48-70 3%     1 - 5 +1.6 -11.3 +12.2
  Dec 04, 2024 256   Portland St. W 91-74 84%     2 - 5 +8.7 +16.0 -6.6
  Dec 07, 2024 158   @ UTEP L 69-70 46%    
  Dec 17, 2024 115   @ Western Kentucky L 74-78 35%    
  Dec 20, 2024 217   Illinois-Chicago W 78-70 79%    
  Dec 23, 2024 75   @ Washington L 67-75 22%    
  Dec 30, 2024 223   Nicholls St. W 74-65 79%    
  Jan 04, 2025 185   @ California Baptist W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 11, 2025 178   Abilene Christian W 73-67 72%    
  Jan 16, 2025 291   Utah Tech W 76-64 87%    
  Jan 18, 2025 199   Southern Utah W 77-70 74%    
  Jan 23, 2025 161   @ Texas Arlington L 75-76 48%    
  Jan 25, 2025 184   Utah Valley W 74-68 71%    
  Jan 30, 2025 100   @ Grand Canyon L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 06, 2025 323   Tarleton St. W 74-60 90%    
  Feb 08, 2025 161   Texas Arlington W 79-73 69%    
  Feb 13, 2025 178   @ Abilene Christian W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 15, 2025 323   @ Tarleton St. W 71-63 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 184   @ Utah Valley W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 27, 2025 185   California Baptist W 72-66 72%    
  Mar 01, 2025 100   Grand Canyon W 74-73 50%    
  Mar 06, 2025 199   @ Southern Utah W 74-73 54%    
  Mar 08, 2025 291   @ Utah Tech W 73-67 70%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.8 7.7 5.3 2.3 0.5 25.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.1 9.0 6.2 1.9 0.2 23.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.9 7.8 3.5 0.5 0.0 17.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.8 5.9 2.2 0.2 12.5 4th
5th 0.3 2.5 4.6 1.5 0.1 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.0 1.1 0.1 6.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 0.7 0.1 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 4.0 6.8 10.2 13.3 15.5 15.4 13.5 9.6 5.6 2.3 0.5 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
15-1 100.0% 2.3    2.3 0.1
14-2 95.6% 5.3    4.6 0.7
13-3 80.4% 7.7    5.4 2.2 0.2
12-4 50.2% 6.8    3.2 2.9 0.6 0.0
11-5 18.2% 2.8    0.6 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 25.8% 25.8 16.6 7.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.5% 50.2% 49.4% 0.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.6%
15-1 2.3% 49.3% 49.3% 12.2 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.2
14-2 5.6% 45.1% 45.0% 0.1% 12.6 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.1 0.1%
13-3 9.6% 39.1% 39.1% 12.9 0.0 1.3 1.7 0.7 0.1 5.9
12-4 13.5% 32.3% 32.3% 13.3 0.7 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 9.1
11-5 15.4% 23.1% 23.1% 13.8 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.1 11.9
10-6 15.5% 15.6% 15.6% 14.3 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.1 13.1
9-7 13.3% 9.6% 9.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 12.0
8-8 10.2% 6.2% 6.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 9.5
7-9 6.8% 4.1% 4.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.5
6-10 4.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.9
5-11 2.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-12 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-13 0.4% 0.4
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 20.3% 20.3% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.3 6.7 4.8 3.1 1.0 79.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 8.0 14.3 14.3 9.5 19.0 9.5 23.8 9.5