UC Riverside
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#272
Expected Predictive Rating-4.0#230
Pace68.7#209
Improvement-0.5#213

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#223
First Shot+2.5#106
After Offensive Rebound-4.5#359
Layup/Dunks+1.6#117
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#80
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#230
Freethrows+0.5#140
Improvement+0.8#114

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#308
First Shot-5.8#347
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#48
Layups/Dunks-6.1#352
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#73
Freethrows+0.0#181
Improvement-1.4#285
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.9 15.5
.500 or above 5.2% 11.2% 3.1%
.500 or above in Conference 23.1% 39.8% 17.1%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 13.9% 6.5% 16.6%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hawaii (Home) - 26.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 33 - 73 - 14
Quad 48 - 611 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 333 @North Dakota W 74-70 55%     1 - 0 -3.4 -2.2 -1.3
  Tue, Nov 11 66 @New Mexico L 68-82 6%     1 - 1 -2.8 +4.6 -8.1
  Sat, Nov 15 333 North Dakota L 74-76 76%     1 - 2 -15.4 -8.8 -6.5
  Tue, Nov 18 134 @California Baptist L 57-80 16%     1 - 3 -18.3 -17.7 +1.3
  Fri, Nov 21 260 @San Diego W 85-71 37%     2 - 3 +11.5 +12.9 -0.9
  Mon, Nov 24 245 Grambling St. W 83-74 57%     3 - 3 +1.2 +8.7 -7.4
  Sat, Nov 29 251 @Utah Tech L 69-77 36%     3 - 4 -10.2 +2.5 -13.5
  Thu, Dec 4 131 @UC Irvine L 60-73 16%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -8.2 -4.8 -3.8
  Sat, Dec 6 257 @Cal Poly W 88-84 36%     4 - 5 1 - 1 +1.6 +12.1 -10.5
  Sat, Dec 13 11 @BYU L 53-100 1%     4 - 6 -24.4 -13.9 -7.1
  Sat, Dec 20 135 @St. Thomas L 78-92 16%     4 - 7 -9.3 +7.7 -17.1
  Tue, Dec 23 30 @UCLA L 65-97 3%     4 - 8 -14.6 -7.5 -3.8
  Thu, Jan 1 109 Hawaii L 68-75 26%    
  Thu, Jan 8 305 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 74-75 47%    
  Sat, Jan 10 83 UC San Diego L 71-81 18%    
  Thu, Jan 15 275 @Long Beach St. L 73-76 39%    
  Sat, Jan 17 242 Cal St. Fullerton W 82-80 56%    
  Thu, Jan 22 131 UC Irvine L 69-74 33%    
  Sat, Jan 24 176 @UC Davis L 71-79 24%    
  Thu, Jan 29 275 Long Beach St. W 76-73 62%    
  Sat, Jan 31 257 Cal Poly W 84-82 59%    
  Thu, Feb 5 242 @Cal St. Fullerton L 79-83 35%    
  Sat, Feb 7 212 @Cal St. Northridge L 77-83 30%    
  Thu, Feb 12 150 UC Santa Barbara L 72-76 37%    
  Sat, Feb 14 83 @UC San Diego L 68-84 8%    
  Thu, Feb 19 305 Cal St. Bakersfield W 77-72 68%    
  Sat, Feb 21 176 UC Davis L 74-76 43%    
  Thu, Feb 26 150 @UC Santa Barbara L 69-79 19%    
  Sat, Feb 28 212 Cal St. Northridge W 81-80 51%    
  Fri, Mar 6 109 @Hawaii L 65-78 12%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.7 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 4.1 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.9 3.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 13.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.3 6.9 4.4 0.8 0.0 15.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.3 6.9 4.2 1.0 0.0 15.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.0 6.5 4.2 0.6 0.0 14.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.9 3.1 0.6 0.0 12.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 2.3 2.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 8.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.9 2.9 5.9 9.9 13.6 15.3 14.9 13.3 9.8 6.5 3.8 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 60.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-5 27.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.1% 13.3% 13.3% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.3% 13.4% 13.4% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-6 0.7% 5.9% 5.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-7 1.9% 4.7% 4.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8
12-8 3.8% 2.1% 2.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.7
11-9 6.5% 1.1% 1.1% 15.2 0.1 0.0 6.4
10-10 9.8% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.7
9-11 13.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.2
8-12 14.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.9
7-13 15.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.3
6-14 13.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.5
5-15 9.9% 9.9
4-16 5.9% 5.9
3-17 2.9% 2.9
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%