UC Riverside
Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#136
Expected Predictive Rating+4.4#116
Pace65.5#270
Improvement+0.2#167

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#205
First Shot+1.2#141
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#298
Layup/Dunks-2.2#251
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#23
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#119
Freethrows-2.4#297
Improvement+1.2#76

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#85
First Shot+2.6#96
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#157
Layups/Dunks+3.9#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-7.7#358
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#67
Freethrows+3.0#21
Improvement-1.0#266
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.4% 15.6% 10.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 83.5% 87.7% 70.7%
.500 or above in Conference 84.5% 86.5% 78.4%
Conference Champion 15.1% 16.5% 10.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.6% 1.3%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.6%
First Round14.2% 15.5% 10.3%
Second Round1.6% 1.9% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Home) - 75.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 22 - 5
Quad 35 - 57 - 10
Quad 412 - 319 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 52   @ San Diego St. L 53-66 18%     0 - 1 -1.1 -8.4 +6.9
  Nov 11, 2021 105   @ Arizona St. W 66-65 30%     1 - 1 +8.4 +1.8 +6.7
  Nov 17, 2021 178   @ San Diego L 62-74 48%     1 - 2 -9.5 -8.1 -1.2
  Nov 22, 2021 169   @ UTEP W 52-40 46%     2 - 2 +15.1 -13.5 +29.4
  Nov 26, 2021 301   Florida A&M W 60-49 88%     3 - 2 +0.2 -12.4 +13.1
  Nov 29, 2021 41   @ St. Mary's L 50-67 15%     3 - 3 -3.9 -3.8 -3.2
  Dec 01, 2021 53   @ Oregon L 65-71 18%     3 - 4 +5.8 +11.3 -6.9
  Dec 12, 2021 219   California Baptist W 72-65 76%    
  Dec 19, 2021 295   Sacramento St. W 72-59 88%    
  Dec 22, 2021 345   Idaho W 80-61 96%    
  Dec 28, 2021 211   @ UC Davis W 68-67 54%    
  Jan 02, 2022 193   @ Hawaii W 67-66 50%    
  Jan 06, 2022 198   UC San Diego W 71-65 72%    
  Jan 08, 2022 73   UC Irvine L 61-63 43%    
  Jan 13, 2022 302   @ Cal Poly W 64-57 74%    
  Jan 15, 2022 214   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 63-62 53%    
  Jan 20, 2022 115   @ UC Santa Barbara L 63-68 34%    
  Jan 22, 2022 285   @ Cal St. Northridge W 66-60 69%    
  Jan 27, 2022 286   Long Beach St. W 78-66 86%    
  Jan 29, 2022 205   Cal St. Fullerton W 70-63 72%    
  Feb 01, 2022 211   UC Davis W 71-64 73%    
  Feb 03, 2022 193   Hawaii W 70-64 71%    
  Feb 10, 2022 73   @ UC Irvine L 58-66 24%    
  Feb 12, 2022 198   @ UC San Diego W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 17, 2022 214   Cal St. Bakersfield W 66-59 73%    
  Feb 19, 2022 302   Cal Poly W 67-54 88%    
  Feb 24, 2022 285   Cal St. Northridge W 69-57 85%    
  Feb 26, 2022 115   UC Santa Barbara W 66-65 55%    
  Mar 03, 2022 205   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 67-66 52%    
  Mar 05, 2022 286   @ Long Beach St. W 75-69 70%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 4.3 3.5 2.1 0.8 0.1 15.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.1 6.3 6.1 3.4 1.0 0.1 20.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.5 6.8 4.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 18.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.9 5.6 3.0 0.6 0.1 14.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.4 4.4 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.2 6.4 8.8 10.8 12.9 13.3 12.6 10.6 7.9 4.5 2.2 0.8 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
18-2 96.0% 2.1    1.8 0.3 0.0
17-3 77.8% 3.5    2.6 0.9 0.0
16-4 54.9% 4.3    2.5 1.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 26.4% 2.8    1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0
14-6 9.6% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1
13-7 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.1% 15.1 9.2 4.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 70.0% 55.7% 14.3% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.3%
19-1 0.8% 48.1% 45.2% 2.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 5.2%
18-2 2.2% 39.0% 38.2% 0.7% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 1.2%
17-3 4.5% 32.0% 32.0% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 3.1
16-4 7.9% 27.6% 27.6% 13.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.7
15-5 10.6% 22.6% 22.6% 13.8 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 8.2
14-6 12.6% 17.3% 17.3% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.0 10.4
13-7 13.3% 13.2% 13.2% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 11.5
12-8 12.9% 9.7% 9.7% 14.8 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 11.7
11-9 10.8% 7.9% 7.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 9.9
10-10 8.8% 6.2% 6.2% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 8.3
9-11 6.4% 4.5% 4.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.1
8-12 4.2% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.1
7-13 2.6% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 2.5
6-14 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3
5-15 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 14.4% 14.3% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.4 4.7 3.6 1.3 85.6 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 8.4 9.1 9.1 9.1 21.2 6.1 9.1 18.2 18.2