Gonzaga
West Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+21.2#1
Expected Predictive Rating+19.3#10
Pace72.8#78
Improvement-3.9#356

Offense
Total Offense+13.5#2
First Shot+9.7#5
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#24
Layup/Dunks+7.3#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#263
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#179
Freethrows+3.9#19
Improvement-2.9#357

Defense
Total Defense+7.6#12
First Shot+3.2#86
After Offensive Rebounds+4.5#4
Layups/Dunks-5.3#338
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#111
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#17
Freethrows+1.2#109
Improvement-0.9#263
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 7.0% 8.7% 4.0%
#1 Seed 31.9% 37.8% 22.0%
Top 2 Seed 57.7% 65.5% 44.4%
Top 4 Seed 83.2% 88.3% 74.6%
Top 6 Seed 93.8% 96.4% 89.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.7% 99.9% 99.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.0% 99.6% 98.1%
Average Seed 2.8 2.4 3.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 89.8% 91.2% 87.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round99.7% 99.9% 99.3%
Second Round94.2% 95.7% 91.8%
Sweet Sixteen71.8% 74.8% 66.6%
Elite Eight49.1% 52.6% 43.3%
Final Four31.5% 34.6% 26.4%
Championship Game19.5% 21.6% 15.8%
National Champion12.0% 13.5% 9.3%

Next Game: Kentucky (Neutral) - 63.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 13 - 1
Quad 1b4 - 17 - 3
Quad 27 - 114 - 3
Quad 36 - 020 - 4
Quad 49 - 029 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 13   Baylor W 101-63 80%     1 - 0 +50.4 +30.5 +19.7
  Nov 10, 2024 51   Arizona St. W 88-80 90%     2 - 0 +14.8 +16.7 -2.0
  Nov 15, 2024 154   Umass Lowell W 113-54 98%     3 - 0 +56.3 +19.5 +27.7
  Nov 18, 2024 37   @ San Diego St. W 80-67 72%     4 - 0 +28.1 +18.0 +10.3
  Nov 20, 2024 304   Long Beach St. W 84-41 99%     5 - 0 +32.6 +15.4 +21.8
  Nov 27, 2024 45   West Virginia L 78-86 OT 83%     5 - 1 +2.9 +4.4 -0.8
  Nov 28, 2024 39   Indiana W 89-73 81%     6 - 1 +27.8 +16.2 +10.7
  Nov 29, 2024 134   Davidson W 90-65 96%     7 - 1 +26.4 +14.4 +11.4
  Dec 07, 2024 9   Kentucky W 86-83 63%    
  Dec 14, 2024 11   Connecticut W 80-74 70%    
  Dec 18, 2024 223   Nicholls St. W 90-62 99.6%   
  Dec 21, 2024 260   Bucknell W 89-59 99.8%   
  Dec 28, 2024 18   UCLA W 76-69 73%    
  Dec 30, 2024 258   @ Pepperdine W 89-65 99%    
  Jan 02, 2025 309   Portland W 94-62 99.8%   
  Jan 04, 2025 181   @ Loyola Marymount W 85-66 96%    
  Jan 08, 2025 312   San Diego W 94-62 99.9%   
  Jan 11, 2025 74   Washington St. W 88-71 94%    
  Jan 16, 2025 76   @ Oregon St. W 80-69 83%    
  Jan 18, 2025 84   Santa Clara W 87-69 95%    
  Jan 25, 2025 309   @ Portland W 91-65 99%    
  Jan 28, 2025 76   Oregon St. W 83-66 93%    
  Feb 01, 2025 42   @ St. Mary's W 76-69 73%    
  Feb 06, 2025 181   Loyola Marymount W 88-63 99%    
  Feb 08, 2025 277   @ Pacific W 88-64 99%    
  Feb 13, 2025 64   San Francisco W 83-68 91%    
  Feb 15, 2025 258   Pepperdine W 92-62 99.6%   
  Feb 19, 2025 74   @ Washington St. W 85-74 83%    
  Feb 22, 2025 42   St. Mary's W 79-66 87%    
  Feb 27, 2025 84   @ Santa Clara W 84-72 86%    
  Mar 01, 2025 64   @ San Francisco W 80-71 79%    
Projected Record 28 - 3 17 - 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.7 8.5 21.1 31.9 26.4 89.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.8 3.1 1.1 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.9 5.1 11.7 22.3 31.9 26.4 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 26.4    26.4
17-1 100.0% 31.9    31.2 0.8
16-2 94.9% 21.1    17.7 3.4 0.0
15-3 72.7% 8.5    4.8 3.3 0.4 0.0
14-4 33.7% 1.7    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 89.8% 89.8 80.5 8.3 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 26.4% 100.0% 81.9% 18.1% 1.4 17.4 7.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 31.9% 100.0% 76.7% 23.3% 1.9 12.5 12.1 5.0 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 22.3% 100.0% 70.4% 29.6% 3.2 2.0 5.5 6.6 5.0 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 11.7% 99.8% 63.8% 36.0% 4.7 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.3 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.4%
14-4 5.1% 98.7% 54.6% 44.1% 6.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 97.1%
13-5 1.9% 95.1% 40.2% 54.9% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 91.9%
12-6 0.5% 96.0% 36.9% 59.1% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 93.6%
11-7 0.2% 74.4% 26.7% 47.8% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 65.2%
10-8 0.0% 70.0% 25.0% 45.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.0%
9-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.7% 73.0% 26.7% 2.8 31.9 25.7 14.8 10.8 6.5 4.1 2.5 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.3 99.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.2% 100.0% 1.2 76.2 22.9 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 100.0% 1.4 62.8 34.1 3.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 100.0% 1.4 61.1 34.9 4.0