USC
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.3 53
Expected Predictive Rating +14.4 37
Pace 75.3 30
Improvement -4.3 333

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 79 B B- C A+ C-
Defense B+ 36 B B+ C+ C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 90 B 64% 59 +4.5 35
2 Pt. Jumpers 47% 77 B- 42% 61 +2.4 61
Three Pointers 34% 325 C+ 35% 121 -3.1 283
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.2 225 B +4.0 57
1st FG Attempt B 1.10 70
Second Chance B 35.8% 42 C 1.02 182 B- 0.37 69
Turnovers C 17.0% 189
Freethrows A+ 0.42 1 C 72% 188 A+ 0.31 2
Total Offense B- +4.1 79

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots A- 62% 19 B 8.7% 59
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 34% 63 C- 5.7% 229
Three Pointers D- 76% 332 B 0.4% 58
Total B- 59% 94 C+ 5.1% 124

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 214 B+ 51% 30 -3.3 74
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 126 D 43% 324 +1.6 307
Three Pointers 41% 192 B+ 30% 38 -2.5 79
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 126 B -3.8 45
1st FG Attempt B 0.94 49
Second Chance B- 28.1% 87 B+ 0.89 21 B+ 0.25 39
Turnovers C+ 17.8% 120
Freethrows B- 0.28 110 D- 76% 334 C+ 0.21 157
Total Defense B+ +6.3 36

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 93 A 19.2% 13
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 134 C+ 5.8% 112
Three Pointers C 83% 158 B+ 2.0% 33
Total B- 51% 86 A 9.3% 14

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.8 41 17.6 246
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 120 0.17 165
Improvement -4.8 #350 +0.5 #154

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 67 53 44
Conference Record 7 - 13 9 - 11 11 - 9
Conference Finish 12 11 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 9
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45% 49% 31%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 45% 49% 31%
Average Seed 10.1 10.0 10.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 37% 46% 12%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four19% 20% 17%
First Round34% 38% 22%
Second Round11% 13% 7%
Sweet Sixteen2% 2% 1%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Oregon (Home) - 75.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 9
Quad 27 - 210 - 11
Quad 36 - 116 - 12
Quad 44 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 231 Cal Poly W 94 - 64 94% +12  97% 1 - 0 A+ +23 C- -0 C+ D C- A+ +19 A- A- A+
 Sun, Nov 9 321 Manhattan W 114 - 83 98% +16  91% 2 - 0 A +18 A +12 D+ A+ C C+ +1 C- A D+
 Fri, Nov 14 99 Illinois St. W 87 - 67 69% +12  95% 3 - 0 A+ +25 A+ +17 A A- A+ A +8 A+ B- C-
 Thu, Nov 20 146 Troy W 107 - 106 3OT 88% +2  60% 4 - 0 C -1 D+ -3 C- F A- C+ +1 B+ F B+
 Mon, Nov 24 65 Boise St. W 70 - 67 57% +2  64% 5 - 0 B+ +12 C- -2 B- D+ D- A+ +14 A+ B- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 56 Seton Hall W 83 - 81 51% -2  37% 6 - 0 B+ +12 A+ +18 A+ A C+ D -6 F A+ D-
 Wed, Nov 26 63 Arizona St. W 88 - 75 56% +4  76% 7 - 0 A +22 A+ +21 A+ A+ B C+ +2 D+ A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 2 91 @Oregon W 82 - 77 55% -1  46% 8 - 0 1 - 0 B+ +14 A +13 A A F C+ +1 D- C+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 44 Washington L 76 - 84 57% +8  84% 8 - 1 1 - 1 C +1 C +1 D C A+ C -0 A- D C+
 Tue, Dec 9 220 @San Diego W 94 - 81 84% +5  59% 9 - 1 B+ +13 B +7 A+ C+ F B +4 A- C+ C
 Sun, Dec 14 122 Washington St. W 68 - 61 84% +6  98% 10 - 1 B- +7 F -10 F D- C- A+ +17 A A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 17 335 Texas San Antonio W 97 - 70 98% +10  69% 11 - 1 B+ +13 A- +10 A+ B- C+ C+ +1 B+ F A
 Fri, Jan 2 1 @Michigan L 66 - 96 4% -16  0% 11 - 2 1 - 2 C -0 D -5 C+ D+ F A +10 A- A+ D+
 Mon, Jan 5 11 @Michigan St. L 51 - 80 13% -14  13% 11 - 3 1 - 3 D+ -7 F -12 F+ C+ F B+ +6 D- A+ C
 Fri, Jan 9 66 @Minnesota W 70 - 69 OT 45% +3  68% 12 - 3 2 - 3 B+ +13 B +6 A F+ F A- +7 B B- C
 Tue, Jan 13 107 Maryland W 88 - 71 81% +4  69% 13 - 3 3 - 3 A +18 A+ +16 A- C+ A+ B- +3 D+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 8 Purdue L 64 - 69 22% +2  53% 13 - 4 3 - 4 B+ +13 D -4 D A+ C- A+ +18 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 67 Northwestern L 68 - 74 69% -1  31% 13 - 5 3 - 5 C -1 D+ -3 D- C- A+ B- +2 A A- D-
 Sun, Jan 25 29 @Wisconsin W 73 - 71 23% +1  58% 14 - 5 4 - 5 A +20 A- +11 C- B+ A+ A +9 A+ C- D-
 Wed, Jan 28 26 @Iowa L 72 - 73 21% -1  51% 14 - 6 4 - 6 A- +18 B +7 A B- C A +11 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 109 Rutgers W 78 - 75 82% +10  91% 15 - 6 5 - 6 C+ +4 C+ +2 A+ D F C+ +2 A D+ F+
 Tue, Feb 3 37 Indiana W 81 - 75 49% +5  87% 16 - 6 6 - 6 A- +17 B +6 A A+ F A +10 A- A+ C
 Sun, Feb 8 115 @Penn St. W 77 - 75 66% -1  46% 17 - 6 7 - 6 B +8 C- -0 D- A+ D+ A +8 D+ B+ A+
 Wed, Feb 11 34 @Ohio St. L 82 - 89 25% +0  48% 17 - 7 7 - 7 B +10 B+ +8 C+ B+ A- B- +2 C- A+ C+
 Wed, Feb 18 5 Illinois L 65 - 101 18% -21  0% 17 - 8 7 - 8 F+ -16 D -5 C- B+ F F -10 D- D C
 Sat, Feb 21 91 Oregon W 78 - 71 75%
 Tue, Feb 24 39 @UCLA L 72 - 78 28%
 Sat, Feb 28 13 Nebraska L 71 - 77 30%
 Wed, Mar 4 44 @Washington L 75 - 79 34%
 Sat, Mar 7 39 UCLA L 74 - 75 50%
Totals 19 - 11 9 - 11 +10 B- +4 A+ B C- B+ +6 C+ C A+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B B- C+ B 42% 47% 34% C- B B C B- C A+ C A+ B+ B+ D B+ B 37% 22% 41% C+ B B- B+ B+ C+ B- D- C+
1.14 64% 42% 35% +4 0 1.10 36% 1.0 .37 17% .42 72% .31 1.00 51% 43% 30% -4 0 0.94 28% 0.9 .25 18% .28 76% .32
Nov
3		 Cal Poly C- C F B C 46% 9% 44% B+ C+ B F D C- A+ D- A+ A+ A F B+ A 48% 4% 48% F+ A- D- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+
1.13 60% 20% 38% +2 +2 1.09 36% 0.8 .28 17% .58 68% .39 0.77 44% 50% 30% -9 +3 0.89 35% 0.6 .21 27% .20 58% .12
Nov
9		 Manhattan A B F B D 48% 23% 30% C D+ A+ B+ A+ C A+ C A+ C+ A- F B C 42% 19% 38% D- C- B- A+ A D+ F C- F
1.39 66% 21% 39% +2 0 1.07 52% 1.3 .65 15% .46 75% .34 1.01 45% 60% 30% -3 0 0.96 24% 0.7 .17 15% .51 81% .41
Nov
14		 Illinois St. A+ A+ A+ D- A 42% 24% 34% B A B A A- A+ A+ D A+ A A+ F A+ A+ 33% 18% 49% C- A+ F A+ B- C- B+ F C-
1.26 71% 50% 29% +6 0 1.14 31% 1.2 .38 6% .54 66% .35 0.97 44% 60% 22% -9 0 0.84 40% 0.7 .28 16% .22 92% .21
Nov
20		 Troy D+ C A- D C 37% 24% 39% C- C- F B- F A- A+ B A+ C+ B A B B+ 47% 16% 37% C+ B+ F D+ F B+ F C+ F
1.06 56% 50% 31% 0 0 1.01 16% 1.1 .18 13% .52 74% .39 1.05 52% 27% 31% -7 +1 0.91 44% 1.0 .46 20% .43 71% .31
Nov
24		 Boise St. C- F B- A+ B 30% 28% 42% D+ B- C+ F D+ D- B- D C+ A+ A- F A+ A+ 50% 10% 40% D- A+ C B B- A+ A+ F A+
1.01 40% 43% 48% +5 -2 1.08 23% 0.9 .19 19% .30 65% .19 0.96 50% 60% 24% -8 +2 0.90 33% 0.9 .31 22% .20 91% .18
Nov
25		 Seton Hall A+ B+ F+ A+ A+ 50% 28% 23% C- A+ A B A C+ A+ A+ A+ D D- F D+ F 43% 31% 26% A- F A+ A A+ D- B B+ B+
1.20 60% 27% 56% +5 0 1.13 41% 1.0 .41 23% .71 82% .58 1.17 65% 65% 36% +12 -1 1.24 17% 0.8 .14 13% .30 67% .20
Nov
26		 Arizona St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 28% 30% 43% D- A+ A+ C+ A+ B B F C- C+ D A+ D C- 40% 12% 49% D- D+ C+ A+ A+ B- F F F
1.33 85% 64% 45% +22 -2 1.43 50% 1.1 .54 18% .33 61% .20 1.13 65% 20% 38% +4 +1 1.12 31% 0.7 .21 17% .49 85% .42
Dec
2		 Oregon A B- A+ C A+ 37% 24% 39% B- A A+ C A F A+ D A+ C+ A F F D- 40% 13% 47% C- D- B D+ C+ B+ F A F
1.20 59% 73% 33% +8 -1 1.17 45% 0.9 .39 22% .47 72% .34 1.12 44% 67% 43% +5 +1 1.13 32% 1.2 .39 20% .48 65% .31
Dec
6		 Washington C F F B- D 31% 31% 38% C- D D+ B+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ C C B- A- A- 40% 32% 28% C+ A- D+ D D C+ F D- F
1.04 44% 25% 35% -8 -2 0.83 23% 1.1 .25 11% .43 86% .37 1.15 60% 38% 29% -2 -1 0.96 39% 1.2 .47 16% .41 80% .33
Dec
9		 San Diego B C+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 21% 35% C A+ F A+ C+ F A+ B+ A+ B A+ F B+ A 32% 21% 47% C A- C- B- C+ C F F F
1.20 63% 56% 60% +20 0 1.42 24% 1.7 .40 27% .61 77% .47 1.03 39% 58% 30% -5 -1 0.91 30% 0.9 .28 18% .37 83% .31
Dec
14		 Washington St. F C C+ F F 48% 27% 25% C+ F F B D- C- A+ B+ A+ A+ B- A+ B- A+ 34% 12% 54% D+ A A+ C- A+ C+ B B- B
0.97 57% 42% 9% -9 0 0.84 17% 1.2 .21 16% .57 79% .45 0.87 59% 17% 33% -3 +1 0.98 12% 1.0 .12 18% .24 71% .17
Dec
17		 Texas San Antonio A- A+ B+ A+ A+ 41% 18% 41% C A+ C B B- C+ A+ A A+ C+ A C- A B 24% 27% 49% A B+ F C- F A F F F
1.31 76% 44% 43% +14 +1 1.31 37% 1.2 .44 15% .44 79% .35 0.94 42% 38% 25% -10 -2 0.78 43% 0.9 .40 23% .40 83% .33
Jan
2		 Michigan D A+ D F B 18% 41% 41% F C+ B- F D+ F A+ F A+ A F A A+ A- 43% 12% 45% B A- A A+ A+ D+ F C+ F
0.79 67% 30% 25% -7 -4 0.80 28% 0.7 .20 25% .53 64% .34 1.15 80% 29% 23% +1 +1 1.07 31% 1.1 .34 13% .54 72% .39
Jan
5		 Michigan St. F B- F F F 40% 27% 33% C+ F+ C+ C+ C+ F B B B+ B+ C- F D- F 33% 33% 35% A- D- A+ A+ A+ C B+ B B+
0.72 58% 23% 13% -15 -1 0.71 22% 0.8 .16 24% .30 75% .22 1.13 65% 59% 39% +12 -2 1.21 31% 0.6 .19 17% .30 72% .22
Jan
9		 Minnesota B A- A- B- A 38% 27% 35% C A A+ F F+ F A A+ A+ A- C+ A D B- 20% 22% 59% A+ B D- A B- C A A A
1.07 67% 46% 35% +6 -1 1.13 45% 0.3 .12 24% .34 82% .28 1.05 60% 27% 37% 0 -1 1.00 36% 0.8 .29 17% .27 60% .16
Jan
13		 Maryland A+ A+ C C- A 39% 19% 42% C A- A+ F C+ A+ D+ B+ C- B- A F D F+ 21% 35% 44% A+ D+ A+ F A+ C F F+ F
1.30 77% 36% 33% +7 0 1.16 39% 0.8 .30 9% .26 75% .19 1.05 44% 53% 37% +4 -3 1.05 15% 1.3 .19 18% .48 78% .38
Jan
17		 Purdue D A A+ F D- 37% 27% 35% B- D B A+ A+ C- B F D- A+ B+ A+ C+ A+ 41% 20% 39% D A+ A+ D- A+ C- F+ C+ D-
0.93 68% 50% 6% -8 -1 0.84 28% 1.7 .47 19% .25 36% .09 1.00 57% 20% 35% -3 0 0.96 17% 1.3 .22 12% .36 73% .26
Jan
21		 Northwestern D+ C D+ F D- 47% 33% 20% D+ D- C D C- A+ A+ F A+ B- D+ B A+ A 45% 31% 24% B- A A B- A- D- B F C+
1.01 57% 33% 11% -9 -1 0.82 32% 0.8 .27 9% .70 60% .42 1.10 64% 35% 15% -5 -1 0.91 23% 1.3 .29 9% .29 83% .24
Jan
25		 Wisconsin A- A- F+ F C- 29% 25% 46% C- C- A D+ B+ A+ A+ B- A+ A A+ F+ A+ A+ 33% 11% 56% C+ A+ F A- C- D- C- D D+
1.14 64% 33% 27% -4 -1 0.92 35% 0.9 .32 8% .39 74% .29 1.11 44% 50% 23% -12 +1 0.80 39% 1.0 .39 9% .34 80% .27
Jan
28		 Iowa B B+ A+ B A+ 38% 32% 30% D- A C+ C+ B- C C- D D+ A A- A+ A- A+ 33% 17% 50% B A+ D+ F F A+ F F F
1.06 67% 53% 36% +9 -1 1.17 29% 1.0 .29 22% .30 69% .21 1.07 53% 25% 30% -6 0 0.89 36% 1.3 .48 22% .41 86% .36
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Rutgers C+ A+ A B A+ 49% 32% 20% C- A+ A F D F A+ C- A+ C+ A B- A- A 31% 38% 31% B+ A D C+ D+ F+ A+ C- A+
1.11 75% 46% 38% +12 -1 1.24 43% 0.6 .25 24% .56 73% .41 1.06 44% 36% 28% -8 -3 0.81 38% 1.1 .42 11% .19 75% .14
Feb
3		 Indiana B C A A A+ 29% 38% 33% F+ A A+ A+ A+ F A+ A- A+ A A- F B A 37% 7% 56% C- A- A A+ A+ C A D A-
1.11 54% 47% 40% +5 -3 1.07 39% 1.4 .54 21% .54 81% .43 1.03 52% 100% 31% 0 +2 1.05 22% 0.8 .16 14% .26 81% .21
Feb
8		 Penn St. C- C B F D- 44% 24% 32% C- D- B+ A+ A+ D+ A D+ A- A B- F C- C- 54% 13% 33% F D+ C A B+ A+ B+ A+ A+
1.06 59% 42% 25% -3 0 0.96 35% 1.8 .65 21% .31 72% .23 1.04 57% 71% 35% +5 +2 1.15 29% 1.0 .29 24% .27 60% .16
Feb
11		 Ohio St. B+ B+ C+ D- B 28% 44% 28% F C+ A- C B+ A- A+ C A+ B- F+ F C+ D 24% 34% 42% A C- B+ A+ A+ C+ D- F F
1.11 64% 41% 29% +1 -4 0.96 37% 1.0 .37 14% .52 73% .38 1.21 75% 65% 33% +13 -3 1.22 31% 0.8 .23 16% .40 96% .39
Feb
18		 Illinois D F D- A+ D+ 39% 31% 30% B C- A- C+ B+ F A+ F A+ F C C+ F D- 48% 10% 42% D- D- C- D D C F F F
0.91 33% 29% 44% -8 -1 0.83 32% 0.9 .29 20% .35 60% .21 1.41 63% 40% 48% +11 +2 1.28 43% 1.3 .57 13% .42 92% .38



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 2.2 1.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.7 4.9 0.2 6.7 8th
9th 0.3 8.1 2.3 10.7 9th
10th 0.2 7.4 12.4 0.4 20.4 10th
11th 0.6 11.2 24.6 3.7 0.0 40.1 11th
12th 3.2 10.4 2.8 16.4 12th
13th 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 5.3 22.4 35.0 26.0 9.8 1.5 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 1.5% 94.9% 0.2% 94.7% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 94.9%
11-9 9.8% 85.6% 85.6% 9.3 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.3 2.8 0.7 1.4 85.6%
10-10 26.0% 68.9% 0.1% 68.8% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.7 7.4 6.0 0.0 8.1 68.9%
9-11 35.0% 39.5% 0.0% 39.5% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.9 10.0 0.3 21.2 39.5%
8-12 22.4% 13.9% 0.0% 13.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.6 0.2 19.3 13.9%
7-13 5.3% 1.5% 1.5% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.2 1.5%
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 44.8% 0.0% 44.7% 10.1 55.2 44.7%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 7.1 3.3 20.0 46.7 23.3 6.7
Lose Out 2.7% 0.1% 11.0 0.1