USC
Pac-12
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.9#96
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#114
Pace70.5#120
Improvement-4.6#339

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#107
First Shot+2.5#109
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#177
Layup/Dunks+0.5#148
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#199
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#130
Freethrows+1.0#94
Improvement-4.0#343

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#86
First Shot+0.5#160
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#10
Layups/Dunks+3.4#60
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#81
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#354
Freethrows+1.8#57
Improvement-0.6#218
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.1% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.3 15.8
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 17.3% 3.8% 20.9%
First Four1.0% 0.4% 1.1%
First Round2.5% 3.0% 2.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington St. (Away) - 21.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 9
Quad 23 - 85 - 16
Quad 35 - 29 - 19
Quad 43 - 012 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 61   Kansas St. W 82-69 38%     1 - 0 +22.0 +10.1 +10.8
  Nov 09, 2023 239   Cal St. Bakersfield W 85-59 87%     2 - 0 +19.5 +11.6 +8.3
  Nov 14, 2023 86   UC Irvine L 60-70 58%     2 - 1 -6.2 -9.2 +3.1
  Nov 19, 2023 221   Brown W 81-70 86%     3 - 1 +5.1 +6.8 -1.6
  Nov 23, 2023 51   Seton Hall W 71-63 34%     4 - 1 +18.0 +2.5 +15.3
  Nov 24, 2023 34   Oklahoma L 70-72 28%     4 - 2 +9.9 +5.9 +3.9
  Nov 29, 2023 145   Eastern Washington W 106-78 75%     5 - 2 +27.0 +25.3 +0.4
  Dec 02, 2023 18   Gonzaga L 76-89 20%     5 - 3 +1.6 +7.7 -6.2
  Dec 10, 2023 152   Long Beach St. L 79-84 OT 77%     5 - 4 -7.0 -7.7 +1.6
  Dec 17, 2023 5   @ Auburn L 75-91 7%     5 - 5 +6.0 +9.0 -2.1
  Dec 19, 2023 321   @ Alabama St. W 79-59 88%     6 - 5 +13.2 +5.4 +7.2
  Dec 28, 2023 53   @ Oregon L 74-82 27%     6 - 6 0 - 1 +4.3 +6.4 -2.1
  Dec 30, 2023 141   @ Oregon St. L 70-86 55%     6 - 7 0 - 2 -11.5 -1.5 -9.7
  Jan 03, 2024 100   California W 82-74 63%     7 - 7 1 - 2 +10.6 +8.5 +1.9
  Jan 06, 2024 98   Stanford W 93-79 61%     8 - 7 2 - 2 +17.0 +18.0 -1.4
  Jan 10, 2024 36   Washington St. L 64-72 39%     8 - 8 2 - 3 +0.8 -3.2 +3.9
  Jan 13, 2024 31   @ Colorado L 58-68 20%     8 - 9 2 - 4 +4.9 -6.6 +11.1
  Jan 17, 2024 4   @ Arizona L 67-82 7%     8 - 10 2 - 5 +7.8 -0.7 +9.5
  Jan 20, 2024 105   @ Arizona St. L 67-82 43%     8 - 11 2 - 6 -7.4 -2.4 -4.3
  Jan 27, 2024 80   UCLA L 50-65 57%     8 - 12 2 - 7 -10.8 -8.9 -4.6
  Feb 01, 2024 53   Oregon L 69-78 46%     8 - 13 2 - 8 -2.2 +2.0 -4.6
  Feb 03, 2024 141   Oregon St. W 82-54 74%     9 - 13 3 - 8 +27.0 +19.7 +11.0
  Feb 07, 2024 100   @ California L 77-83 OT 42%     9 - 14 3 - 9 +2.0 +3.1 -0.7
  Feb 10, 2024 98   @ Stanford L 68-99 40%     9 - 15 3 - 10 -22.6 -4.7 -16.4
  Feb 15, 2024 52   Utah W 68-64 45%     10 - 15 4 - 10 +11.1 -2.9 +13.9
  Feb 17, 2024 31   Colorado L 89-92 2OT 36%     10 - 16 4 - 11 +6.4 +7.7 -0.9
  Feb 24, 2024 80   @ UCLA W 62-56 36%     11 - 16 5 - 11 +15.6 +0.8 +15.2
  Feb 29, 2024 36   @ Washington St. L 65-73 21%    
  Mar 02, 2024 62   @ Washington L 75-81 28%    
  Mar 07, 2024 105   Arizona St. W 74-70 65%    
  Mar 09, 2024 4   Arizona L 75-86 15%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 6 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.2 0.5 0.6 7th
8th 2.6 0.2 2.8 8th
9th 0.9 3.5 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 9.1 1.5 10.6 10th
11th 15.8 43.2 18.8 0.2 78.1 11th
12th 2.6 0.7 3.3 12th
Total 18.5 43.9 28.8 8.0 0.8 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 0.8% 5.6% 5.6% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
8-12 8.0% 3.3% 3.3% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 7.7
7-13 28.8% 3.2% 3.2% 15.5 0.0 0.5 0.4 27.9
6-14 43.9% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.1 1.0 42.8
5-15 18.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4 18.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.8 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 5.6% 13.7 1.9 3.4 0.2
Lose Out 18.5% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 2.2