USC
Pac-12
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.5#44
Expected Predictive Rating+12.6#34
Pace68.6#170
Improvement+2.6#2

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#53
First Shot+4.7#53
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#144
Layup/Dunks+2.6#78
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#28
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#291
Freethrows+1.6#62
Improvement+1.8#5

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#41
First Shot+6.7#21
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#303
Layups/Dunks+6.5#8
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#72
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#269
Freethrows+0.8#125
Improvement+0.9#59
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.3% 1.9% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 6.0% 8.0% 1.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.2% 71.3% 51.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62.4% 68.9% 48.2%
Average Seed 8.9 8.7 9.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 96.8% 98.8% 92.3%
Conference Champion 1.9% 2.6% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.1% 12.3% 15.0%
First Round58.3% 64.9% 43.7%
Second Round27.9% 31.8% 19.3%
Sweet Sixteen8.5% 10.0% 5.4%
Elite Eight3.2% 3.8% 1.9%
Final Four1.1% 1.3% 0.5%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington St. (Home) - 68.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 6
Quad 26 - 29 - 8
Quad 36 - 115 - 9
Quad 46 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 171   Florida Gulf Coast L 61-74 89%     0 - 1 -15.7 -14.6 -0.9
  Nov 10, 2022 353   Alabama St. W 96-58 98%     1 - 1 +21.9 +8.6 +9.9
  Nov 15, 2022 146   Vermont W 59-57 87%     2 - 1 +0.5 -12.5 +13.1
  Nov 18, 2022 290   Mount St. Mary's W 83-74 96%     3 - 1 -0.6 +3.2 -4.3
  Nov 23, 2022 81   BYU W 82-76 65%     4 - 1 +12.6 +9.5 +2.6
  Nov 24, 2022 3   Tennessee L 66-73 OT 22%     4 - 2 +11.7 +2.4 +9.7
  Nov 25, 2022 57   Wisconsin L 59-64 55%     4 - 3 +4.1 +0.0 +3.5
  Nov 30, 2022 224   @ California W 66-51 84%     5 - 3 +14.8 +2.1 +14.5
  Dec 04, 2022 185   Oregon St. W 63-62 90%     6 - 3 1 - 0 -2.6 -1.1 -1.4
  Dec 07, 2022 154   Cal St. Fullerton W 64-50 88%     7 - 3 +11.9 -6.7 +18.9
  Dec 14, 2022 165   Long Beach St. W 88-78 88%     8 - 3 +7.4 +8.5 -1.7
  Dec 18, 2022 27   Auburn W 74-71 52%     9 - 3 +13.1 +7.1 +6.0
  Dec 21, 2022 113   Colorado St. W 73-64 75%     10 - 3 +12.4 -1.8 +14.1
  Dec 30, 2022 102   @ Washington W 80-67 63%     11 - 3 2 - 0 +20.1 +12.1 +8.0
  Jan 01, 2023 63   @ Washington St. L 71-81 47%     11 - 4 2 - 1 +1.2 +9.6 -9.2
  Jan 05, 2023 5   @ UCLA L 58-60 17%     11 - 5 2 - 2 +18.8 +7.8 +10.7
  Jan 12, 2023 61   Colorado W 68-61 67%     12 - 5 3 - 2 +12.9 +1.1 +11.8
  Jan 14, 2023 51   Utah W 71-56 63%     13 - 5 4 - 2 +22.2 +11.7 +12.2
  Jan 19, 2023 9   @ Arizona L 66-81 22%     13 - 6 4 - 3 +3.5 -3.3 +7.9
  Jan 21, 2023 66   @ Arizona St. W 77-69 48%     14 - 6 5 - 3 +19.1 +13.7 +5.6
  Jan 26, 2023 5   UCLA W 77-64 32%     15 - 6 6 - 3 +28.4 +21.0 +8.6
  Feb 02, 2023 63   Washington St. W 69-64 69%    
  Feb 04, 2023 102   Washington W 75-66 80%    
  Feb 09, 2023 48   @ Oregon L 70-72 41%    
  Feb 11, 2023 185   @ Oregon St. W 70-61 78%    
  Feb 16, 2023 224   California W 73-57 94%    
  Feb 18, 2023 90   Stanford W 73-65 77%    
  Feb 23, 2023 61   @ Colorado L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 25, 2023 51   @ Utah L 66-68 42%    
  Mar 02, 2023 9   Arizona L 75-78 41%    
  Mar 04, 2023 66   Arizona St. W 71-66 68%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 1.9 1st
2nd 0.1 2.1 6.9 4.7 0.7 14.5 2nd
3rd 0.6 6.8 15.8 8.5 0.7 32.4 3rd
4th 0.2 4.6 11.9 5.8 0.4 22.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 9.1 4.9 0.4 0.0 16.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.0 2.5 0.2 7.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 1.4 0.1 3.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.6 8.1 17.0 23.8 24.2 16.0 6.4 1.3 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 47.9% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.0
15-5 15.3% 1.0    0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0
14-6 1.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 1.3% 100.0% 12.0% 88.0% 3.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.4% 98.8% 10.7% 88.1% 6.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.8 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.6%
14-6 16.0% 94.3% 9.1% 85.2% 7.9 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.0 5.0 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.9 93.7%
13-7 24.2% 81.4% 8.3% 73.1% 9.2 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.1 6.9 6.0 1.6 0.0 4.5 79.8%
12-8 23.8% 61.3% 6.7% 54.6% 10.0 0.0 0.7 2.8 6.4 4.5 0.1 9.2 58.6%
11-9 17.0% 37.7% 6.1% 31.7% 10.6 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.7 0.2 0.0 10.6 33.7%
10-10 8.1% 19.5% 5.0% 14.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.2 6.5 15.2%
9-11 2.6% 8.2% 5.3% 3.0% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.4 3.1%
8-12 0.5% 2.9% 2.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.5
7-13 0.1% 3.7% 3.7% 13.0 0.0 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 65.2% 7.5% 57.7% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 3.1 7.2 10.5 14.0 15.8 11.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 34.8 62.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 3.8 1.4 5.4 31.3 38.0 21.3 2.4 0.3