USC
Pac-12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.5#14
Expected Predictive Rating+19.6#4
Pace66.7#246
Improvement+0.6#138

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#25
First Shot+4.1#65
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#29
Layup/Dunks+9.0#9
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#302
Freethrows-1.3#262
Improvement+0.3#156

Defense
Total Defense+8.2#9
First Shot+8.8#10
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#217
Layups/Dunks-0.3#193
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#2
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#157
Freethrows+3.3#14
Improvement+0.3#153
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.5% 1.6% 0.3%
#1 Seed 8.7% 8.9% 2.8%
Top 2 Seed 20.8% 21.4% 8.6%
Top 4 Seed 48.7% 49.7% 27.0%
Top 6 Seed 71.1% 72.0% 51.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.8% 96.1% 89.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.7% 95.0% 87.3%
Average Seed 4.8 4.8 6.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 98.6% 97.3%
Conference Champion 29.8% 30.2% 20.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.8% 1.7% 3.4%
First Round95.0% 95.3% 88.0%
Second Round73.0% 73.5% 62.0%
Sweet Sixteen41.1% 41.7% 28.5%
Elite Eight20.5% 20.8% 12.9%
Final Four10.0% 10.2% 5.6%
Championship Game4.7% 4.8% 2.2%
National Champion2.2% 2.2% 0.8%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Home) - 95.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 15 - 4
Quad 28 - 213 - 6
Quad 39 - 121 - 6
Quad 46 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 285   Cal St. Northridge W 89-49 98%     1 - 0 +30.4 +14.7 +17.1
  Nov 13, 2021 140   @ Temple W 76-71 84%     2 - 0 +9.8 +3.7 +6.0
  Nov 16, 2021 213   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 78-61 90%     3 - 0 +18.1 +7.1 +11.4
  Nov 22, 2021 305   Dixie St. W 98-71 98%     4 - 0 +15.9 +5.2 +7.1
  Nov 25, 2021 207   Saint Joseph's W 70-55 94%     5 - 0 +13.2 -2.6 +16.2
  Nov 26, 2021 52   San Diego St. W 58-43 74%     6 - 0 +23.9 +5.3 +21.8
  Dec 01, 2021 66   Utah W 93-73 85%     7 - 0 1 - 0 +24.5 +18.8 +5.1
  Dec 04, 2021 49   @ Washington St. W 63-61 62%     8 - 0 2 - 0 +14.3 +4.3 +10.3
  Dec 07, 2021 163   Eastern Kentucky W 86-68 96%    
  Dec 12, 2021 286   Long Beach St. W 87-62 99%    
  Dec 15, 2021 73   UC Irvine W 70-58 86%    
  Dec 18, 2021 99   Georgia Tech W 73-63 83%    
  Dec 21, 2021 40   Oklahoma St. W 70-65 69%    
  Dec 30, 2021 105   Arizona St. W 75-61 90%    
  Jan 02, 2022 5   Arizona L 73-74 50%    
  Jan 06, 2022 121   @ California W 68-59 80%    
  Jan 08, 2022 95   @ Stanford W 73-66 74%    
  Jan 13, 2022 149   Oregon St. W 75-58 94%    
  Jan 15, 2022 53   Oregon W 73-63 81%    
  Jan 20, 2022 81   @ Colorado W 70-64 71%    
  Jan 22, 2022 66   @ Utah W 71-66 67%    
  Jan 27, 2022 95   Stanford W 76-63 88%    
  Jan 29, 2022 121   California W 71-56 92%    
  Feb 03, 2022 105   @ Arizona St. W 72-64 76%    
  Feb 05, 2022 5   @ Arizona L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 12, 2022 9   UCLA W 71-70 55%    
  Feb 17, 2022 148   Washington W 78-61 93%    
  Feb 20, 2022 49   Washington St. W 72-63 79%    
  Feb 24, 2022 149   @ Oregon St. W 72-61 84%    
  Feb 26, 2022 53   @ Oregon W 70-66 62%    
  Mar 05, 2022 9   @ UCLA L 68-73 35%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.6 9.3 8.3 3.8 0.9 29.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.7 9.6 10.2 4.7 0.6 31.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.6 7.9 5.3 1.3 0.0 22.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.2 3.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.0 3.9 6.4 10.4 14.4 16.9 17.0 13.9 8.9 3.8 0.9 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
19-1 100.0% 3.8    3.7 0.1
18-2 92.9% 8.3    6.6 1.6 0.0
17-3 66.4% 9.3    5.5 3.5 0.3
16-4 32.6% 5.6    2.1 2.6 0.8 0.0
15-5 10.4% 1.8    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.8% 29.8 19.2 8.8 1.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.9% 100.0% 53.2% 46.8% 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 3.8% 100.0% 45.0% 55.0% 1.5 2.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 8.9% 100.0% 37.6% 62.4% 2.0 3.1 3.5 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 13.9% 100.0% 31.0% 69.0% 2.7 2.1 4.3 4.2 2.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 17.0% 99.9% 24.4% 75.5% 3.7 0.6 2.2 4.6 5.0 2.8 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 16.9% 99.8% 18.9% 80.9% 4.9 0.1 0.5 2.3 4.1 4.3 3.3 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-6 14.4% 98.9% 14.7% 84.2% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.0 3.6 2.8 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.7%
13-7 10.4% 95.5% 10.3% 85.2% 7.5 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.5 95.0%
12-8 6.4% 89.5% 8.1% 81.3% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.7 88.5%
11-9 3.9% 76.1% 5.7% 70.5% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.9 74.7%
10-10 2.0% 57.5% 3.2% 54.3% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.9 56.1%
9-11 0.8% 35.7% 2.9% 32.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.5 33.8%
8-12 0.4% 13.1% 3.5% 9.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.9%
7-13 0.1% 4.9% 1.6% 3.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.3%
6-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 95.8% 21.2% 74.6% 4.8 8.7 12.2 13.7 14.2 11.9 10.5 8.0 5.9 4.6 3.2 2.3 0.6 0.0 4.2 94.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 86.2 12.6 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 58.3 41.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 69.8 30.2