Long Beach St.
Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.1#291
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#231
Pace80.4#14
Improvement-0.6#232

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#249
First Shot-1.9#231
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#218
Layup/Dunks-1.2#212
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#16
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#304
Freethrows-1.0#245
Improvement-1.8#330

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#308
First Shot-4.8#316
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#162
Layups/Dunks+4.2#44
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#280
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.3#350
Freethrows-0.2#199
Improvement+1.2#67
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 0.3% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 16.0 15.8
.500 or above 2.9% 10.4% 2.6%
.500 or above in Conference 13.8% 24.2% 13.5%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.9% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 29.3% 19.7% 29.7%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 0.5%
First Round0.6% 0.0% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Away) - 3.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 32 - 92 - 16
Quad 47 - 59 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 349   @ Idaho W 95-89 OT 68%     1 - 0 -5.7 -1.5 -5.4
  Nov 15, 2021 6   @ UCLA L 79-100 1%     1 - 1 -0.5 +5.4 -3.3
  Nov 17, 2021 151   Utah Valley L 78-84 OT 32%     1 - 2 -8.1 -0.9 -6.9
  Nov 22, 2021 93   Missouri St. L 66-92 12%     1 - 3 -20.2 -8.9 -10.6
  Nov 23, 2021 89   Murray St. L 43-80 11%     1 - 4 -30.8 -25.6 -5.5
  Nov 24, 2021 206   Wright St. W 85-76 31%     2 - 4 +7.0 +2.1 +4.0
  Nov 30, 2021 49   @ San Diego St. L 61-80 3%    
  Dec 04, 2021 129   Loyola Marymount L 74-80 26%    
  Dec 12, 2021 17   @ USC L 62-87 1%    
  Dec 20, 2021 154   @ San Diego L 70-81 15%    
  Dec 30, 2021 314   @ Cal Poly L 71-72 45%    
  Jan 01, 2022 204   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 68-76 23%    
  Jan 04, 2022 208   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 72-80 24%    
  Jan 08, 2022 186   Hawaii L 77-80 39%    
  Jan 13, 2022 119   UC Santa Barbara L 71-78 26%    
  Jan 15, 2022 273   Cal St. Northridge W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 20, 2022 193   @ UC San Diego L 73-82 22%    
  Jan 22, 2022 69   UC Irvine L 66-77 15%    
  Jan 27, 2022 138   @ UC Riverside L 65-77 14%    
  Jan 29, 2022 211   @ UC Davis L 76-84 24%    
  Feb 03, 2022 204   Cal St. Bakersfield L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 05, 2022 314   Cal Poly W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 08, 2022 208   Cal St. Fullerton L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 11, 2022 186   @ Hawaii L 74-83 21%    
  Feb 17, 2022 273   @ Cal St. Northridge L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 19, 2022 119   @ UC Santa Barbara L 68-81 12%    
  Feb 24, 2022 193   UC San Diego L 76-79 41%    
  Feb 26, 2022 69   @ UC Irvine L 63-80 6%    
  Mar 03, 2022 211   UC Davis L 79-81 43%    
  Mar 05, 2022 138   UC Riverside L 68-74 30%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 6 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 2.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.3 2.2 0.6 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.2 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.4 4.1 0.8 0.1 13.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.2 6.4 4.3 1.0 0.1 16.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 2.6 6.1 6.7 3.8 0.8 0.1 20.7 10th
11th 0.6 2.3 4.5 5.8 4.8 1.8 0.4 0.0 20.5 11th
Total 0.6 2.4 5.1 8.4 12.0 13.1 13.6 12.4 10.6 8.0 5.7 3.8 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 50.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 60.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-5 50.0% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 15.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.1% 0.1
15-5 0.3% 7.1% 7.1% 15.0 0.0 0.3
14-6 0.6% 8.8% 8.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-7 1.4% 6.6% 6.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
12-8 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 2.0
11-9 3.8% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.7
10-10 5.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 5.6
9-11 8.0% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 7.9
8-12 10.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 10.4
7-13 12.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 12.3
6-14 13.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.5
5-15 13.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.1
4-16 12.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.9
3-17 8.4% 8.4
2-18 5.1% 5.1
1-19 2.4% 2.4
0-20 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%