St. Peter's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#209
Expected Predictive Rating-2.4#203
Pace60.3#355
Improvement-0.5#211

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#248
First Shot-4.8#306
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#80
Layup/Dunks-9.3#363
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#197
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#46
Freethrows+0.1#180
Improvement-0.2#204

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#152
First Shot+1.1#135
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#221
Layups/Dunks-2.2#251
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#24
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#48
Freethrows-3.6#341
Improvement-0.2#202
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.0% 21.2% 14.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.2
.500 or above 77.9% 86.1% 68.6%
.500 or above in Conference 79.9% 87.9% 70.7%
Conference Champion 21.0% 28.1% 13.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.7% 3.2%
First Four2.7% 2.6% 2.7%
First Round16.7% 20.0% 13.0%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iona (Away) - 53.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 32 - 5
Quad 415 - 717 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 116   @ Seton Hall L 53-57 22%     0 - 1 +2.0 -5.1 +6.6
  Nov 08, 2024 154   @ Umass Lowell L 74-81 30%     0 - 2 -3.7 +1.0 -4.7
  Nov 11, 2024 58   @ Rutgers L 65-75 9%     0 - 3 +2.5 +3.6 -1.8
  Nov 16, 2024 296   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 69-61 56%     1 - 3 +4.1 +3.6 +1.8
  Nov 26, 2024 341   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-76 72%     2 - 3 -6.3 +2.4 -8.7
  Dec 03, 2024 208   @ Duquesne W 62-59 38%     3 - 3 +3.7 +3.1 +1.2
  Dec 06, 2024 313   Manhattan L 67-70 80%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -14.1 -10.6 -3.5
  Dec 08, 2024 274   @ Iona W 65-64 53%    
  Dec 20, 2024 213   Delaware W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 03, 2025 245   Quinnipiac W 70-65 68%    
  Jan 10, 2025 308   @ Niagara W 65-63 58%    
  Jan 12, 2025 345   @ Canisius W 69-62 74%    
  Jan 16, 2025 242   Marist W 64-59 67%    
  Jan 18, 2025 269   @ Sacred Heart W 68-67 53%    
  Jan 23, 2025 222   Merrimack W 62-58 64%    
  Jan 31, 2025 257   @ Rider L 63-64 50%    
  Feb 02, 2025 254   Mount St. Mary's W 67-61 70%    
  Feb 06, 2025 302   @ Siena W 63-61 57%    
  Feb 08, 2025 313   @ Manhattan W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 14, 2025 283   Fairfield W 68-61 74%    
  Feb 16, 2025 257   Rider W 66-60 70%    
  Feb 21, 2025 254   @ Mount St. Mary's L 63-64 49%    
  Feb 23, 2025 269   Sacred Heart W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 28, 2025 245   @ Quinnipiac L 67-68 47%    
  Mar 02, 2025 242   @ Marist L 61-62 47%    
  Mar 06, 2025 308   Niagara W 68-60 77%    
  Mar 08, 2025 345   Canisius W 72-59 87%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 3.8 5.6 5.3 3.4 1.3 0.3 21.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 4.8 5.5 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 15.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.3 5.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.2 3.0 5.1 1.8 0.2 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 4.7 2.3 0.2 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.4 3.0 0.3 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.2 3.2 0.7 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 2.9 1.2 0.1 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.7 0.2 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.0 3.5 5.3 7.8 9.5 12.1 13.3 13.3 11.4 9.0 6.2 3.5 1.3 0.3 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 99.7% 1.3    1.3 0.0
17-3 95.8% 3.4    3.1 0.3
16-4 86.0% 5.3    4.1 1.1 0.0
15-5 61.6% 5.6    3.2 1.9 0.4 0.0
14-6 33.2% 3.8    1.1 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-7 9.6% 1.3    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.0% 21.0 13.2 5.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.3% 55.8% 55.8% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
18-2 1.3% 47.0% 47.0% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7
17-3 3.5% 42.9% 42.9% 13.7 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.0
16-4 6.2% 38.1% 38.1% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.0 3.8
15-5 9.0% 30.0% 30.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.3 6.3
14-6 11.4% 27.1% 27.1% 15.2 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.9 8.3
13-7 13.3% 19.9% 19.9% 15.5 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.4 10.6
12-8 13.3% 17.6% 17.6% 15.7 0.0 0.7 1.6 11.0
11-9 12.1% 10.5% 10.5% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.0 10.8
10-10 9.5% 7.0% 7.0% 15.9 0.1 0.6 8.9
9-11 7.8% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 7.4
8-12 5.3% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.2 5.1
7-13 3.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 3.4
6-14 2.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.9
5-15 0.9% 0.9
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.4 6.4 6.4 82.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.8 2.9 20.3 68.1 8.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%