UMKC
Summit League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.8#292
Expected Predictive Rating-17.4#359
Pace66.5#251
Improvement-1.8#292

Offense
Total Offense-5.4#321
First Shot-9.4#359
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#19
Layup/Dunks-13.2#364
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.2#19
Freethrows-0.3#196
Improvement-0.5#227

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#215
First Shot-0.9#199
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#224
Layups/Dunks-3.3#291
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#122
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#107
Freethrows-0.5#222
Improvement-1.3#283
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 4.7% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 4.8% 13.2% 3.6%
.500 or above in Conference 32.7% 44.5% 31.0%
Conference Champion 2.3% 4.4% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 21.0% 13.3% 22.1%
First Four2.3% 2.8% 2.2%
First Round2.1% 3.5% 1.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Away) - 12.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 62 - 10
Quad 47 - 108 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2024 8   @ Iowa St. L 56-82 1%     0 - 1 -4.8 -4.0 -2.3
  Nov 16, 2024 40   @ Creighton L 56-79 3%     0 - 2 -8.3 -9.6 +1.4
  Nov 22, 2024 236   American L 60-64 39%     0 - 3 -8.1 -12.8 +4.6
  Nov 23, 2024 237   Albany L 65-67 40%     0 - 4 -6.1 -4.2 -2.1
  Nov 30, 2024 295   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 59-80 39%     0 - 5 -24.9 -18.9 -4.0
  Dec 04, 2024 265   Idaho L 77-82 58%     0 - 6 -13.9 -1.2 -12.8
  Dec 07, 2024 122   @ Montana St. L 62-74 13%    
  Dec 10, 2024 309   @ Portland L 69-71 42%    
  Dec 14, 2024 267   Bowling Green W 71-69 58%    
  Dec 17, 2024 94   @ Wichita St. L 62-77 7%    
  Dec 21, 2024 135   East Tennessee St. L 66-71 31%    
  Jan 02, 2025 224   South Dakota L 76-77 49%    
  Jan 04, 2025 261   Oral Roberts W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 08, 2025 306   @ Nebraska Omaha L 68-70 42%    
  Jan 16, 2025 187   @ North Dakota St. L 65-73 22%    
  Jan 18, 2025 289   @ North Dakota L 68-71 38%    
  Jan 23, 2025 120   South Dakota St. L 68-74 29%    
  Jan 25, 2025 133   St. Thomas L 68-73 31%    
  Jan 30, 2025 321   @ Denver L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 01, 2025 261   @ Oral Roberts L 70-74 35%    
  Feb 06, 2025 187   North Dakota St. L 68-70 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 289   North Dakota W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 13, 2025 224   @ South Dakota L 74-80 29%    
  Feb 19, 2025 306   Nebraska Omaha W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 23, 2025 120   @ South Dakota St. L 65-77 14%    
  Feb 27, 2025 321   Denver W 73-68 67%    
  Mar 01, 2025 133   @ St. Thomas L 65-76 16%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.3 3.0 1.0 0.1 8.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 5.1 4.0 0.9 0.1 11.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 6.2 5.1 1.1 0.0 14.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 6.7 5.7 1.0 0.0 15.4 6th
7th 0.2 2.2 6.9 5.6 1.1 0.0 16.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.0 4.4 0.8 0.0 14.5 8th
9th 0.3 1.4 3.4 4.7 2.9 0.5 0.0 13.2 9th
Total 0.3 1.4 3.8 7.6 11.3 13.7 14.9 14.3 12.2 8.8 5.8 3.4 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 97.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
13-3 80.0% 0.6    0.4 0.1 0.0
12-4 49.7% 0.8    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-5 16.2% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
10-6 2.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.0% 16.7% 16.7% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.2% 33.0% 33.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-3 0.7% 23.5% 23.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5
12-4 1.5% 17.6% 17.6% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.3
11-5 3.4% 10.8% 10.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.0
10-6 5.8% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4 5.4
9-7 8.8% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5 8.4
8-8 12.2% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.5 11.8
7-9 14.3% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.4 13.9
6-10 14.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 14.7
5-11 13.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 13.5
4-12 11.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.2
3-13 7.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.6
2-14 3.8% 3.8
1-15 1.4% 1.4
0-16 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.6 97.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%