UMKC
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.5#342
Expected Predictive Rating-15.9#348
Pace72.5#102
Improvement+1.8#72

Offense
Total Offense-8.8#357
First Shot-7.6#356
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#256
Layup/Dunks-0.9#216
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#149
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#331
Freethrows-1.4#274
Improvement-1.5#307

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#261
First Shot-1.0#213
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#301
Layups/Dunks-5.3#338
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#70
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#137
Freethrows+1.7#83
Improvement+3.3#11
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 8.8% 12.2% 7.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 43.2% 36.8% 45.6%
First Four0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Home) - 27.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 81 - 13
Quad 45 - 115 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 134 @Southern Illinois L 78-101 8%     0 - 1 -18.5 +1.8 -18.5
  Tue, Nov 11 168 Iona L 91-105 23%     0 - 2 -17.8 -0.9 -14.2
  Sat, Nov 15 40 @Texas L 55-71 1%     0 - 3 -0.6 -6.1 +3.7
  Wed, Nov 19 55 @TCU L 45-81 2%     0 - 4 -23.1 -19.7 -2.9
  Mon, Nov 24 225 @Lindenwood L 67-80 16%     0 - 5 -13.8 -9.9 -3.0
  Sat, Nov 29 216 @Weber St. L 61-82 15%     0 - 6 -21.5 -11.4 -10.6
  Wed, Dec 3 161 Idaho St. L 59-68 21%     0 - 7 -12.0 -6.0 -7.4
  Sat, Dec 6 249 @Eastern Washington L 66-90 19%     0 - 8 -26.0 -15.5 -8.5
  Wed, Dec 10 216 Weber St. L 60-64 32%     0 - 9 -10.5 -20.1 +9.8
  Tue, Dec 16 47 @Oklahoma L 67-89 2%     0 - 10 -8.0 -2.0 -5.9
  Thu, Dec 18 54 @Oklahoma St. L 79-91 2%     0 - 11 +1.1 +3.8 -1.6
  Sun, Dec 21 192 Austin Peay L 67-73 27%    
  Wed, Dec 31 315 @Denver L 75-80 30%    
  Sat, Jan 3 228 @Nebraska Omaha L 68-78 17%    
  Thu, Jan 8 149 North Dakota St. L 68-77 19%    
  Sat, Jan 10 331 North Dakota W 73-71 57%    
  Thu, Jan 15 276 @South Dakota L 76-84 22%    
  Sat, Jan 17 170 @South Dakota St. L 67-81 10%    
  Sat, Jan 24 228 Nebraska Omaha L 71-75 35%    
  Wed, Jan 28 315 Denver W 78-77 52%    
  Sun, Feb 1 132 @St. Thomas L 65-81 7%    
  Wed, Feb 4 276 South Dakota L 79-81 42%    
  Thu, Feb 12 299 @Oral Roberts L 70-77 26%    
  Sat, Feb 14 132 St. Thomas L 68-78 18%    
  Thu, Feb 19 331 @North Dakota L 70-74 36%    
  Sat, Feb 21 149 @North Dakota St. L 65-80 9%    
  Thu, Feb 26 170 South Dakota St. L 70-78 25%    
  Sat, Feb 28 299 Oral Roberts L 73-74 46%    
Projected Record 5 - 23 4 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 3.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 6.2 3.3 0.4 0.0 12.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.9 8.2 4.7 0.7 0.0 18.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 6.7 10.0 5.3 0.7 0.0 24.1 8th
9th 1.4 5.4 9.6 9.4 3.9 0.5 0.0 30.3 9th
Total 1.4 5.5 11.0 16.7 18.0 16.6 13.3 8.6 4.8 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3 33.3% 0.0    0.0
12-4 37.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 15.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 3.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.0% 0.0
13-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-4 0.1% 10.8% 10.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
11-5 0.4% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
10-6 1.1% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
9-7 2.3% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 2.3
8-8 4.8% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 4.8
7-9 8.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 8.5
6-10 13.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.3
5-11 16.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 16.6
4-12 18.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.0
3-13 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.7
2-14 11.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.0
1-15 5.5% 5.5
0-16 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%