UTEP
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.5 #257
Expected Predictive Rating -9.2 #313
Pace 63.3 #326
Improvement -0.2 #195

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #286 D- C- C- D- F
Defense #209 C- D+ B F C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #355 1.19 #141 -5.2 #336
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #28 0.62 #325 +1.8 #86
Three Pointers 40% #192 0.97 #239 -1.2 #232
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #303 -4.5 #303
Freethrows 15.4 #286 67% #331 10.2 #314
Second Chance 29.1% #230 1.03 #197 0.30 #221
Turnovers 17.3% #226
Total Offense -4.2 #286

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #228 1.14 #150 +1.3 #131
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #125 0.91 #348 -2.2 #331
Three Pointers 41% #188 1.06 #249 -1.0 #224
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #248 -2.0 #247
Freethrows 21.9 #343 73% #184 15.9 #24
Second Chance 34.0% #297 1.04 #177 0.35 #266
Turnovers 18.6% #73
Total Defense -1.3 #209

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.0% #353 -0.6% #120
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.1% #251 4.5% #269
Possession Length 18.7 #321 17.6 #228
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #217 0.16 #150
Improvement +0.2 #167 -0.4 #212

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.7% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 6.7% 12.0% 2.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 36.0% 16.7% 49.9%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
First Round0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware (Away) - 41.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 33 - 114 - 17
Quad 44 - 58 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 130 Loyola Marymount L 58 - 71 34% -3  0 - 1 -14 -7 D F A+ -9 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 29 @Utah St. L 51 - 75 3% -12  0 - 2 -6 -13 F D D- +6 A A- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 137 William & Mary L 63 - 74 26% -8  0 - 3 -10 -11 F C+ C +2 C- B- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 115 UAB L 59 - 75 19% -7  0 - 4 -12 -6 C F F -8 B F D+
 Sun, Dec 7 122 @Seattle L 68 - 75 15% -1  0 - 5 -1 +6 B- C C -8 D- F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 104 @Hawaii L 61 - 66 11% +2  0 - 6 +3 +2 C- A+ B +1 A- A+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 289 Norfolk St. L 71 - 72 68% -3  0 - 7 -11 -4 C C F -7 F B+ A-
 Mon, Dec 22 147 North Dakota St. W 76 - 66 38% +3  1 - 7 +8 +3 C C C +5 D+ A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 234 @Louisiana Tech L 63 - 75 33% -11  1 - 8 0 - 1 -13 -2 F A F -12 F A+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 190 @Missouri St. L 55 - 79 26% -16  1 - 9 0 - 2 -23 -5 D- D+ D -23 F F C
 Sun, Jan 4 172 @Florida International L 64 - 76 24% -2  1 - 10 0 - 3 -10 -5 D- F B -5 C- F B
 Thu, Jan 8 119 Middle Tennessee W 83 - 80 OT 31% -5  2 - 10 1 - 3 +3 +9 C A+ A+ -7 B+ C B
 Sat, Jan 10 151 Western Kentucky L 56 - 68 39% -0  2 - 11 1 - 4 -15 -16 F F F +1 C+ B C+
 Thu, Jan 15 272 @Delaware L 63 - 65 42%
 Sat, Jan 17 96 @Liberty L 62 - 76 9%
 Thu, Jan 22 172 Florida International L 73 - 74 45%
 Sat, Jan 24 190 Missouri St. L 65 - 66 48%
 Wed, Jan 28 234 Louisiana Tech W 63 - 61 56%
 Sat, Jan 31 272 Delaware W 66 - 62 64%
 Wed, Feb 4 138 @Sam Houston St. L 68 - 78 19%
 Sat, Feb 7 140 New Mexico St. L 65 - 69 38%
 Wed, Feb 11 203 @Jacksonville St. L 63 - 69 28%
 Sat, Feb 14 96 Liberty L 65 - 73 23%
 Sat, Feb 21 140 @New Mexico St. L 62 - 72 19%
 Thu, Feb 26 119 @Middle Tennessee L 61 - 72 16%
 Sat, Feb 28 151 @Western Kentucky L 68 - 77 21%
 Thu, Mar 5 158 Kennesaw St. L 74 - 76 41%
 Sat, Mar 7 203 Jacksonville St. L 65 - 66 50%
Totals 7 - 21 6 - 14 -5 -4 D- C- C- -1 C- D+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.2 1.3 0.6 0.1 2.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.6 1.5 0.1 3.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 3.1 0.7 0.0 5.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 4.4 2.1 0.1 7.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 5.6 4.6 0.5 0.0 12.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.1 7.0 7.2 1.3 0.0 18.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 4.2 8.9 8.1 2.4 0.1 24.5 11th
12th 0.6 2.6 6.1 8.1 5.1 1.4 0.1 24.1 12th
Total 0.6 2.7 6.9 12.6 16.3 17.9 16.7 12.0 7.7 4.0 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 40.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.4% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 9.5% 9.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-8 0.6% 4.8% 4.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-9 1.8% 4.2% 4.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 1.7
10-10 4.0% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.9
9-11 7.7% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.6
8-12 12.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.0
7-13 16.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 16.6
6-14 17.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 17.8
5-15 16.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.2
4-16 12.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.5
3-17 6.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.9
2-18 2.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.7
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.8 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%