UTEP
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.4 239
Expected Predictive Rating -5.3 248
Pace 64.1 301
Improvement +3.8 45

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #275 D+ D+ C D F+
Defense C #185 C D+ B- D- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 349 59% 136 -4.4 330
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 22 31% 352 +1.6 91
Three Pointers 39% 216 34% 156 -0.5 195
1st FG Attempt 0.95 280 -3.3 277
Second Chance 26.6% 294 0.99 223 0.26 282
Turnovers 16.9% 175
Freethrows 0.27 287 69% 299 0.19 311
Total Offense -3.9 275

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 231 58% 191 +0.8 142
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 92 41% 295 -1.5 298
Three Pointers 40% 215 34% 189 +0.5 163
1st FG Attempt 1.03 195 -0.2 185
Second Chance 33.6% 305 1.04 203 0.35 273
Turnovers 18.6% 81
Freethrows 0.37 332 73% 242 0.27 333
Total Defense -0.5 185

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.8 350 -0.4 95
Shot Type Accuracy -1.5 224 +0.9 219
Possession Length 18.7 319 17.2 168
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 139 0.18 220
Improvement +1.4 #109 +2.4 #62

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 11% 25% 6%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 6% 2% 7%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Liberty (Home) - 26.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 34 - 94 - 14
Quad 46 - 610 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 151 Loyola Marymount L 58 - 71 43% -3  29% 0 - 1 F+ -16 F -10 D F A- D -7 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 35 @Utah St. L 51 - 75 3% -12  3% 0 - 2 D+ -7 F -16 F D+ D A- +8 B C+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 145 William & Mary L 63 - 74 30% -8  0% 0 - 3 D -10 F -16 F B- C- B+ +7 C B A+
 Tue, Nov 25 118 UAB L 59 - 75 24% -7  11% 0 - 4 D- -13 F+ -8 C F+ F+ D -7 B F C-
 Sun, Dec 7 132 @Seattle L 68 - 75 19% -1  33% 0 - 5 C- -2 B- +5 B B- C+ D- -7 D- F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 102 @Hawaii L 61 - 66 13% +2  62% 0 - 6 C+ +3 C- -1 D+ A B B- +4 B+ A- F
 Sun, Dec 21 307 Norfolk St. L 71 - 72 76% -3  25% 0 - 7 D- -13 D- -8 C- C F D+ -5 F B+ B
 Mon, Dec 22 146 North Dakota St. W 76 - 66 41% +3  66% 1 - 7 B- +8 C +1 C C C B+ +8 C- A A+
 Mon, Dec 29 223 @Louisiana Tech L 63 - 75 34% -11  1% 1 - 8 0 - 1 D- -12 D -4 F A- F D- -9 F A+ F+
 Fri, Jan 2 179 @Missouri St. L 55 - 79 27% -16  0% 1 - 9 0 - 2 F -22 F+ -8 D- D D+ F -19 D- F C
 Sun, Jan 4 188 @Florida International L 64 - 76 30% -2  36% 1 - 10 0 - 3 D -11 D- -8 D- F+ B D+ -4 C- F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 173 Middle Tennessee W 83 - 80 OT 48% -5  11% 2 - 10 1 - 3 C -1 B- +5 D+ A+ B D+ -5 C C+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 160 Western Kentucky L 56 - 68 46% -0  43% 2 - 11 1 - 4 F+ -15 F -17 F F F+ C+ +2 C B- C+
 Thu, Jan 15 279 @Delaware W 70 - 69 48% -2  16% 3 - 11 2 - 4 C- -3 C+ +2 C D+ A+ D+ -5 A F F
 Sat, Jan 17 95 @Liberty L 69 - 80 12% -7  1% 3 - 12 2 - 5 C- -3 C+ +3 A+ F D- D- -8 F+ C D-
 Thu, Jan 22 188 Florida International W 83 - 77 52% +5  91% 4 - 12 3 - 5 C +1 C+ +3 B+ C+ D C- -2 F+ A- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 179 Missouri St. L 57 - 62 49% +2  63% 4 - 13 3 - 6 D -9 F -16 D- F B B+ +6 B+ C- A
 Wed, Jan 28 223 Louisiana Tech L 59 - 69 57% -6  19% 4 - 14 3 - 7 F+ -16 F -12 F F C+ D+ -5 F+ D A+
 Sat, Jan 31 279 Delaware W 70 - 55 70% +2  53% 5 - 14 4 - 7 B- +5 C- -1 D- C- A A- +9 A+ D- A-
 Wed, Feb 4 121 @Sam Houston St. L 66 - 70 17% -4  11% 5 - 15 4 - 8 C+ +2 D- -7 D- F A+ A- +9 A+ D C
 Sat, Feb 7 167 New Mexico St. W 91 - 88 OT 47% -5  14% 6 - 15 5 - 8 C -0 C -0 D- A D+ C -1 C C+ D
 Wed, Feb 11 184 @Jacksonville St. W 69 - 64 29% +0  35% 7 - 15 6 - 8 B- +6 B+ +8 A+ F+ D+ C -0 F C- B+
 Sat, Feb 14 95 Liberty L 66 - 73 27%
 Sat, Feb 21 167 @New Mexico St. L 66 - 73 26%
 Thu, Feb 26 173 @Middle Tennessee L 64 - 71 27%
 Sat, Feb 28 160 @Western Kentucky L 67 - 74 26%
 Thu, Mar 5 154 Kennesaw St. L 74 - 75 45%
 Sat, Mar 7 184 Jacksonville St. W 66 - 65 51%
Totals 9 - 19 8 - 12 -4 D+ -4 D+ D+ C C +0 C D+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C+ F+ C+ C- 30% 31% 39% F+ D+ D+ C- D+ C D+ D D C C D+ C C- 37% 23% 40% B- C D C D+ B- D- C- D-
1.03 59% 31% 34% -2 -2 0.95 27% 1.0 .26 17% .27 69% .19 1.09 58% 41% 34% +1 0 1.03 34% 1.0 .35 19% .37 73% .20
Nov
11		 Loyola Marymount F F F A+ C- 22% 43% 35% F D F+ F F A- F+ C D- D F+ B F F 30% 20% 50% C- F F F F A+ A+ F A+
0.92 27% 27% 44% -6 -4 0.82 23% 0.8 .18 13% .22 75% .16 1.13 69% 33% 45% +11 -1 1.23 36% 1.4 .52 30% .11 80% .09
Nov
15		 Utah St. F A+ F F F 36% 32% 32% D F F+ B D+ D B+ F D A- F C- A+ B 39% 12% 49% B- B F A+ C+ A+ F A F
0.75 69% 14% 14% -13 -2 0.73 23% 1.1 .26 24% .36 53% .19 1.10 75% 40% 25% 0 +1 1.05 47% 0.9 .43 25% .71 64% .45
Nov
24		 William & Mary F D- F F F 37% 21% 42% D F D+ A+ B- C- D D D B+ C- D C C- 43% 14% 43% C+ C D A+ B A+ D+ B+ C-
0.85 52% 25% 17% -16 0 0.70 28% 1.3 .35 20% .26 67% .17 1.00 62% 43% 33% +2 +1 1.08 30% 0.9 .27 26% .36 70% .26
Nov
25		 UAB F+ C C- B- C+ 23% 27% 50% F+ C F D F+ F+ B C- B D D A+ A+ B 48% 33% 20% B- B F A F C- F D+ F
0.93 60% 33% 36% +1 -2 1.00 16% 0.8 .13 21% .30 73% .22 1.19 64% 20% 22% -7 -1 0.87 54% 0.9 .46 11% .61 74% .45
Dec
7		 Seattle B- A+ C- F B+ 33% 31% 37% F+ B D A+ B- C+ D- D+ D- D- A+ F F D- 36% 18% 47% B- D- F F F C+ F C- F
1.03 76% 38% 26% +2 -2 1.02 26% 1.3 .32 20% .24 69% .17 1.13 44% 63% 43% +6 0 1.13 32% 1.1 .35 18% .44 71% .31
Dec
13		 Hawaii C- F+ F C D+ 35% 27% 37% D- D+ D+ A+ A B F F F B- A+ F C A 52% 9% 39% F+ B+ A+ D+ A- F D F F
0.95 44% 29% 32% -9 -1 0.82 24% 1.8 .43 14% .18 50% .09 1.03 42% 50% 33% -8 +3 0.91 21% 1.1 .24 12% .39 82% .32
Dec
21		 Norfolk St. D- A+ F D C- 36% 18% 46% D C- B+ D- C F A+ F D+ D+ A F F F 38% 24% 38% C- F C- A+ B+ B F B F
1.02 78% 22% 30% +2 0 1.06 39% 0.9 .34 23% .50 44% .22 1.04 41% 64% 41% +4 -1 1.09 30% 0.7 .21 22% .55 63% .35
Dec
22		 North Dakota St. C C+ B+ A B 22% 40% 38% F C C+ D+ C C A+ C A+ B+ D+ F A+ C- 36% 32% 32% B- C- A+ B+ A A+ F C F
1.12 64% 45% 42% +9 -4 1.12 32% 0.8 .26 19% .38 76% .29 0.97 63% 71% 14% +3 -2 1.05 22% 0.8 .19 24% .40 71% .29
Dec
29		 Louisiana Tech D F F+ F+ F+ 17% 22% 61% F F A C+ A- F C A B- D- A+ F F F 36% 17% 48% C- F B- A+ A+ F+ F B+ F
0.98 38% 30% 29% -10 -2 0.78 42% 1.1 .47 23% .32 81% .26 1.17 27% 57% 55% +7 0 1.17 32% 0.4 .14 14% .61 59% .36
Jan
2		 Missouri St. F+ F A D D+ 18% 49% 33% F D- B+ F D D+ A- F C+ F F F+ D- F 23% 36% 41% A+ D- F F F C F F F
0.95 43% 47% 31% 0 -5 0.92 39% 0.8 .29 19% .43 65% .28 1.36 78% 43% 38% +9 -3 1.13 48% 1.7 .80 17% .54 73% .40
Jan
4		 Florida International D- F D- B- D- 35% 17% 48% C- D- D+ F F+ B F A+ D- D+ F+ D A+ C 53% 16% 31% F+ C- F F F C+ F B+ F
0.96 39% 33% 36% -6 0 0.90 32% 0.8 .24 18% .22 83% .18 1.14 67% 43% 21% 0 +2 1.04 39% 1.3 .52 18% .49 63% .31
Jan
8		 Middle Tennessee B- B+ F B+ C 28% 40% 32% F D+ A- A+ A+ B A+ F+ A+ D+ F A+ D C- 26% 30% 44% A- C A F C+ C+ D+ F F
1.16 64% 25% 38% -2 -3 0.92 34% 1.3 .45 13% .58 69% .40 1.12 79% 25% 38% +4 -2 1.06 22% 1.1 .25 17% .29 88% .25
Jan
10		 Western Kentucky F A+ F F F 17% 38% 45% F F C- F F F+ B- A B+ C+ B- F+ B+ C- 41% 31% 27% A- C F+ A B- C+ F A+ C
0.82 88% 22% 24% -8 -4 0.79 27% 0.4 .11 22% .42 77% .32 1.00 48% 44% 29% -5 -1 0.90 39% 0.7 .27 15% .38 59% .22
Jan
15		 Delaware C+ A F+ C- C 33% 24% 44% C C F A+ D+ A+ F F F D+ A+ A- F A 37% 23% 40% C+ A F F F F F B F
1.14 72% 31% 33% +3 -1 1.05 18% 1.3 .24 6% .16 67% .10 1.12 38% 30% 41% -5 0 0.91 30% 1.4 .41 13% .39 71% .28
Jan
17		 Liberty C+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 23% 44% C- A+ F F F D- F F F D- F F C F 52% 8% 40% C F+ C C C D- B+ F C+
1.11 63% 64% 48% +16 -1 1.33 14% 1.0 .14 21% .08 50% .04 1.29 81% 50% 35% +13 +3 1.34 18% 1.0 .18 10% .20 82% .16
Jan
22		 Florida International C+ B+ C+ A A 32% 26% 42% F+ B+ D- A+ C+ D D- C- D- C- F+ C+ F F 38% 36% 26% A+ F+ C+ A+ A- C+ F B+ F
1.16 65% 43% 41% +8 -1 1.15 29% 1.3 .39 22% .25 71% .18 1.07 67% 35% 50% +9 -2 1.15 31% 0.8 .25 18% .46 63% .29
Jan
24		 Missouri St. F C F A+ D 22% 41% 37% F+ D- F F F B F C F+ B+ F A- A+ B+ 30% 28% 43% B- B+ A+ F C- A F F F
0.88 64% 20% 44% 0 -4 0.94 9% 0.0 .00 15% .28 73% .20 0.96 75% 27% 24% -4 -1 0.90 21% 1.8 .38 23% .46 74% .34
Jan
28		 Louisiana Tech F F F C F 29% 27% 44% F F F+ F F C+ B- A+ A D+ A+ F F F 38% 30% 32% B+ F+ D- C- D A+ F F F
0.91 43% 15% 33% -11 -2 0.77 24% 0.9 .22 17% .35 89% .32 1.07 39% 57% 40% +1 -1 1.02 41% 0.8 .34 25% .37 78% .29
Jan
31		 Delaware C- B+ F A+ D+ 27% 42% 31% F D- B F+ C- A A+ C A+ A- F A+ A+ A+ 27% 22% 51% B A+ F A D- A- F F F
1.12 67% 21% 43% -1 -4 0.93 35% 0.8 .27 10% .44 80% .36 0.88 73% 11% 10% -21 -1 0.59 39% 0.6 .25 22% .60 93% .56
Feb
4		 Sam Houston St. D- D A- F D+ 29% 41% 31% F D- F F F A+ F C+ F A- A- A+ A+ A+ 47% 16% 37% D A+ C D- D C F F F
0.95 53% 46% 22% -4 -3 0.88 19% 0.8 .14 9% .22 71% .16 1.00 48% 13% 22% -15 +1 0.73 36% 1.1 .40 17% .47 78% .36
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 New Mexico St. C B- F D+ D 23% 26% 51% D- D- B+ B+ A D+ A+ F A+ C B+ B F C 38% 29% 33% C- C B- D+ C+ D D A+ C
1.12 62% 20% 31% -6 -2 0.86 38% 1.3 .49 17% .56 68% .39 1.08 50% 33% 43% 0 -1 1.00 30% 1.0 .30 12% .32 61% .20
Feb
11		 Jacksonville St. B+ B- B A+ A+ 24% 17% 59% D A+ D+ F F+ D+ A- D B C D B- F F 37% 22% 41% A F C- C- C- B+ A- A+ A
1.15 60% 43% 46% +12 -1 1.24 25% 0.7 .18 18% .39 74% .29 1.07 60% 33% 47% +8 0 1.17 31% 1.0 .31 22% .30 57% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.6 0.1 1.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 0.9 0.0 2.7 4th
5th 1.1 3.6 0.3 4.9 5th
6th 0.3 5.8 2.8 0.1 8.9 6th
7th 3.3 9.8 0.6 13.7 7th
8th 1.0 11.5 4.7 0.0 17.2 8th
9th 0.3 7.9 12.5 0.7 21.4 9th
10th 2.7 12.4 3.4 0.0 18.5 10th
11th 5.7 4.9 0.2 10.8 11th
12th 0.9 0.1 1.0 12th
Total 9.6 26.3 31.1 22.0 8.9 1.9 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.2% 9.1% 9.1% 15.0 0.0 0.2
11-9 1.9% 4.8% 4.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.8
10-10 8.9% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.7
9-11 22.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 21.7
8-12 31.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 30.9
7-13 26.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 26.0
6-14 9.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.5
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 16.0 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 6.7%