UTEP
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.1 #246
Expected Predictive Rating -11.9 #330
Pace 63.9 #316
Improvement -1.4 #263

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #277 D F C C- F
Defense #215 D+ F D+ B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #348 1.14 #206 -5.2 #328
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #37 0.66 #293 +2.0 #82
Three Pointers 41% #191 0.99 #206 -0.7 #208
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #280 -3.8 #280
Freethrows 14.1 #321 66% #330 9.3 #339
Second Chance 28.6% #243 1.09 #125 0.31 #190
Turnovers 17.3% #220
Total Offense -3.7 #277

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #224 1.11 #127 +1.6 #121
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #176 0.98 #360 -2.3 #328
Three Pointers 42% #148 1.08 #281 -2.1 #273
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #270 -2.8 #268
Freethrows 22.5 #352 72% #169 16.3 #18
Second Chance 34.9% #319 1.04 #194 0.36 #281
Turnovers 19.0% #60
Total Defense -1.3 #215

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.6% #350 -0.2% #150
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.1% #236 5.8% #284
Possession Length 18.6 #316 17.6 #244
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #239 0.17 #167
Improvement +0.3 #164 -1.7 #292

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.3% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.8
.500 or above 0.6% 1.4% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 9.1% 17.3% 5.1%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 36.9% 24.1% 43.3%
First Four0.7% 0.9% 0.6%
First Round0.7% 1.0% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Home) - 32.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 50 - 6
Quad 33 - 113 - 17
Quad 44 - 58 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 11 125 Loyola Marymount L 58-71 34%     -3.1   0 - 1 -13.7 -6.6 -8.6
  Sat, Nov 15 33 @Utah St. L 51-75 3%     -11.5   0 - 2 -7.2 -13.1 +5.1
  Mon, Nov 24 119 William & Mary L 63-74 23%     -7.9   0 - 3 -8.2 -10.8 +3.2
  Tue, Nov 25 109 UAB L 59-75 19%     -7.3   0 - 4 -11.6 -5.9 -7.5
  Sun, Dec 7 115 @Seattle L 68-75 14%     -0.6   0 - 5 -0.5 +5.5 -6.4
  Sat, Dec 13 98 @Hawaii L 61-66 11%     2.4   0 - 6 +3.3 +1.8 +1.0
  Sun, Dec 21 274 Norfolk St. L 71-72 66%     -2.7   0 - 7 -10.3 -3.6 -6.7
  Mon, Dec 22 152 North Dakota St. W 76-66 41%     2.6   1 - 7 +7.2 +4.3 +3.2
  Mon, Dec 29 214 @Louisiana Tech L 63-75 31%     -10.8   1 - 8 0 - 1 -12.0 -1.0 -12.1
  Fri, Jan 2 187 @Missouri St. L 55-79 27%     -16.2   1 - 9 0 - 2 -22.8 -4.7 -23.2
  Sun, Jan 4 157 @Florida International L 64-76 22%     -2.5   1 - 10 0 - 3 -9.1 -5.2 -4.5
  Thu, Jan 8 120 Middle Tennessee L 65-70 33%    
  Sat, Jan 10 146 Western Kentucky L 72-75 40%    
  Thu, Jan 15 278 @Delaware L 64-65 45%    
  Sat, Jan 17 106 @Liberty L 63-76 12%    
  Thu, Jan 22 157 Florida International L 73-75 43%    
  Sat, Jan 24 187 Missouri St. L 64-65 49%    
  Wed, Jan 28 214 Louisiana Tech W 63-62 53%    
  Sat, Jan 31 278 Delaware W 67-62 66%    
  Wed, Feb 4 134 @Sam Houston St. L 69-79 19%    
  Sat, Feb 7 145 New Mexico St. L 68-71 39%    
  Wed, Feb 11 215 @Jacksonville St. L 63-68 32%    
  Sat, Feb 14 106 Liberty L 66-73 28%    
  Sat, Feb 21 145 @New Mexico St. L 65-74 21%    
  Thu, Feb 26 120 @Middle Tennessee L 62-73 17%    
  Sat, Feb 28 146 @Western Kentucky L 69-78 22%    
  Thu, Mar 5 168 Kennesaw St. L 73-74 46%    
  Sat, Mar 7 215 Jacksonville St. W 66-65 54%    
Projected Record 7 - 21 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 3.3 1.0 0.1 5.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.2 2.5 0.1 0.0 8.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.1 4.2 0.7 0.0 11.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.4 6.2 6.2 1.4 0.0 16.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 4.2 8.1 6.6 2.0 0.1 0.0 22.3 11th
12th 0.2 1.4 4.1 6.5 7.2 4.4 1.6 0.1 25.6 12th
Total 0.2 1.4 4.2 7.7 11.8 15.1 15.9 14.8 11.6 8.2 4.8 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 75.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 59.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 8.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 11.1% 11.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.4% 8.0% 8.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-8 1.1% 6.7% 6.7% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
11-9 2.6% 4.7% 4.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.4
10-10 4.8% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.7
9-11 8.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.0
8-12 11.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.5
7-13 14.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.7
6-14 15.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 15.8
5-15 15.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 15.0
4-16 11.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.7
3-17 7.7% 7.7
2-18 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.2
1-19 1.4% 1.4
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%