Western Carolina
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -3.6 224
Results Rating -4.5 239
Consistency 0.16 201
Pace 69.8 137
Improvement +8.0 6

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 161 D+ B- C C- C
Defense D+ 287 D B- D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 193 D 52% 310 -2.4 269
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% 176 B- 42% 72 +0.7 137
Three Pointers 41% 174 D+ 32% 280 -1.3 224
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 191 D+ -2.9 282
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 277
Second Chance B 34.6% 61 C- 1.01 218 B- 0.35 89
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.9% 133
Other Turnovers D+ 8.1% 292
Turnovers C 17.0% 209
Freethrows C 0.30 211 C- 71% 232 C- 0.21 216
Total Offense C +0.1 161

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 44% 251 B- 8.9% 72
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 15% 331 B- 4.0% 113
Three Pointers F+ 73% 347 B- 0.6% 97
Total D- 47% 326 B 4.5% 58


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 211 D+ 61% 249 +0.6 202
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 182 D 42% 318 +0.8 252
Three Pointers 42% 144 D- 37% 322 +2.6 305
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 162 D +3.8 329
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 314
Second Chance B- 27.3% 72 C 1.02 156 B- 0.28 89
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.4% 264
Other Turnovers D+ 6.6% 272
Turnovers D+ 15.0% 284
Freethrows C- 0.31 211 D+ 74% 261 C- 0.23 229
Total Defense D+ -3.7 287

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A- 38% 15 D+ 8.7% 266
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 146 D+ 3.1% 288
Three Pointers B- 80% 68 C- 0.7% 207
Total B 49% 50 D+ 4.2% 293

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.9 232 16.6 50
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 311 0.18 212
Consistency 0.13 222 0.10 22
Improvement +4.5 20 +3.5 34

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 225 224 222
Results Rating Rank 240 238 237
Conference Record 10 - 8 10 - 8 10 - 8
Conference Finish 5 5 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 00 - 5
Quad 34 - 44 - 9
Quad 49 - 713 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 39 @Cincinnati L 63 - 94 4% -20  0% 0 - 1 D- -15 D- -8 C C- F D+ -3 F B B+
 Sat, Nov 8 1 @Duke L 54 - 95 0% -23  4% 0 - 2 D -11 F+ -10 F+ C- B- B- +3 A C+ D
 Sun, Nov 16 310 Stetson W 76 - 65 79% +8  84% 1 - 2 C -1 F -10 B+ F F A +9 A+ C F
 Wed, Nov 19 236 UNC Asheville W 80 - 73 65% +1  58% 2 - 2 C -0 B+ +8 D+ B B+ F+ -8 F A+ C
 Sat, Nov 22 216 @Lipscomb L 62 - 83 37% -12  17% 2 - 3 F -21 F -17 F D+ F D+ -3 D D D+
 Sat, Nov 29 93 @High Point L 73 - 93 12% -7  36% 2 - 4 D -11 D -4 A F F D -6 F A+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 305 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 78 59% -4  4% 2 - 5 F+ -17 F+ -10 F D- B- D- -7 D+ C- C
 Thu, Dec 11 56 @Virginia Tech L 74 - 96 7% -15  0% 2 - 6 D -9 C+ +2 B- C D+ F -10 F D- C
 Thu, Dec 18 27 @Georgia L 82 - 112 3% -16  0% 2 - 7 D -11 C +1 A B- C- F+ -9 F A C-
 Wed, Dec 31 243 Wofford L 74 - 79 66% -3  20% 2 - 8 0 - 1 D- -13 F+ -9 F D+ F D+ -4 D- C+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 178 @Furman W 80 - 77 OT 30% +3  65% 3 - 8 1 - 1 C+ +5 B- +4 C- A D C+ +0 C- B+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 206 @Samford L 77 - 82 34% +6  88% 3 - 9 1 - 2 C- -4 C+ +3 F A+ D+ D- -8 D D+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 339 @The Citadel L 77 - 79 OT 71% +2  60% 3 - 10 1 - 3 D -11 D -4 F F+ A- D- -7 C- F D+
 Wed, Jan 14 164 East Tennessee St. W 72 - 68 47% -0  38% 4 - 10 2 - 3 C +1 C+ +3 B C+ F+ C- -2 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 295 Chattanooga L 82 - 90 75% +3  59% 4 - 11 2 - 4 F -19 B +6 B- D+ A- F -25 F D- F
 Wed, Jan 21 187 @Mercer L 76 - 88 31% -14  0% 4 - 12 2 - 5 D -11 C- -1 D- B+ F F -10 B- F F
 Sat, Jan 24 359 VMI W 88 - 58 93% +12  84% 5 - 12 3 - 5 B +10 A+ +19 C+ A+ A+ C- -3 D+ C+ D-
 Thu, Jan 29 164 @East Tennessee St. W 90 - 88 26% +9  100% 6 - 12 4 - 5 B- +5 A+ +18 A- A+ B F -13 D- C+ F
 Sun, Feb 1 206 Samford L 74 - 88 56% -8  8% 6 - 13 4 - 6 F -19 D- -8 F F+ A- F -11 F D+ B
 Wed, Feb 4 297 @UNC Greensboro L 78 - 81 55% -0  46% 6 - 14 4 - 7 D+ -8 C +1 D+ D+ D+ F+ -9 D+ F+ B
 Sat, Feb 7 243 @Wofford L 66 - 77 43% -5  18% 6 - 15 4 - 8 D- -13 F -12 F B- C- C- -2 F A A-
 Wed, Feb 11 339 The Citadel W 87 - 49 86% +26  97% 7 - 15 5 - 8 A +23 A +13 B A+ B A+ +14 A+ B+ B-
 Sat, Feb 14 295 @Chattanooga W 81 - 76 54% +10  96% 8 - 15 6 - 8 C +0 C+ +3 D- A D+ C- -3 D F F+
 Wed, Feb 18 297 UNC Greensboro W 91 - 77 76% +6  87% 9 - 15 7 - 8 C+ +3 B +6 C+ A+ C- D+ -4 F A+ B-
 Sat, Feb 21 359 @VMI W 81 - 62 83% +11  99% 10 - 15 8 - 8 B- +5 B +6 F+ D+ A+ C+ +2 F+ A+ F
 Wed, Feb 25 187 Mercer W 78 - 74 54% -0  41% 11 - 15 9 - 8 C -1 C -0 C- D C C -0 C- A B-
 Sat, Feb 28 178 Furman W 86 - 67 52% +4  54% 12 - 15 10 - 8 A- +15 A+ +18 C A+ A+ C -1 F+ A+ F
 Sat, Mar 7 187 Mercer W 77 - 73 42% -5  18% 13 - 15 C+ +2 C+ +2 F A+ F+ C+ +1 C A F
 Sun, Mar 8 164 East Tennessee St. L 67 - 69 36% +8  92% 13 - 16 C- -2 D+ -4 D- D+ D- C+ +2 C+ F+ C+
Totals 13 - 16 10 - 8 -4 C +0 B+ D+ C D+ -4 D+ C- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D B- D+ D+ 38% 38% 41% C D+ B C- B- C C C- C- D+ D+ D D- D 38% 20% 42% C D B- C B- D+ C- D+ C-
1.09 52% 42% 32% -3 0 0.96 35% 1.0 .35 17% .30 71% .21 1.14 61% 42% 37% +4 0 1.10 27% 1.0 .28 15% .31 74% .22
Nov
3		 Cincinnati D- F+ F B- C 30% 26% 43% C- C A- F C- F C- F D- D+ F F D F 35% 19% 46% C- F A+ F B B+ F B- F
0.79 44% 29% 35% -6 -1 0.87 33% 0.7 .23 28% .24 57% .14 1.18 78% 60% 38% +13 0 1.29 23% 1.3 .30 19% .46 67% .31
Nov
8		 Duke F+ D- F+ F F+ 34% 31% 36% C- F+ B+ F C- B- D+ F D- B- C F A A 42% 6% 53% C A A F C+ D F D+ F
0.71 45% 28% 19% -16 -2 0.68 28% 0.5 .15 18% .18 55% .10 1.24 64% 67% 29% 0 +2 1.06 33% 1.5 .48 13% .50 76% .38
Nov
16		 Stetson F C- A A+ B 40% 8% 52% B+ B+ F F+ F F F C- F A A+ D+ A+ A+ 31% 29% 40% A- A+ C+ C- C F D+ C+ C-
1.04 60% 50% 42% +8 +2 1.22 23% 1.0 .23 25% .20 73% .15 0.89 39% 41% 26% -10 -2 0.79 24% 1.1 .27 14% .30 68% .21
Nov
19		 UNC Asheville B+ C+ B F D+ 49% 24% 27% C- D+ A+ F B B+ A+ A+ A+ F+ F D F F 15% 43% 43% A F B+ A+ A+ C F A+ C
1.24 59% 45% 25% -1 0 1.00 49% 0.7 .36 12% .51 79% .41 1.13 71% 45% 50% +15 -5 1.23 25% 0.6 .16 17% .43 52% .22
Nov
22		 Lipscomb F A+ A+ F F 25% 22% 53% D+ F F A+ D+ F C- F D D+ D A+ D- D 35% 10% 55% C D C- F D D+ A+ A+ A+
0.83 77% 55% 15% -7 -1 0.86 15% 1.8 .26 24% .27 60% .16 1.11 64% 17% 38% +3 +1 1.11 25% 1.2 .30 15% .09 50% .05
Nov
29		 High Point D A+ A+ C+ A+ 31% 24% 45% D- A C- F F F C+ F D+ D F F F F 34% 21% 45% A F B- A+ A+ A C B B-
0.98 75% 58% 35% +11 -1 1.22 30% 0.1 .03 26% .33 61% .20 1.25 72% 64% 46% +18 0 1.38 29% 0.6 .18 19% .35 71% .25
Dec
6		 South Carolina Upstate F+ F F F F 46% 20% 34% C F F A- D- B- A+ A+ A+ D- F C B D- 24% 24% 51% A D+ A F C- C F F F
0.93 43% 10% 24% -18 +1 0.68 21% 1.3 .29 14% .45 82% .37 1.09 73% 36% 30% 0 -1 1.00 22% 1.3 .28 18% .51 80% .41
Dec
11		 Virginia Tech C+ F A- A B- 41% 22% 37% C+ B- A- F C D+ A+ F A+ F C- D+ F F 35% 18% 47% C F D D+ D- C F+ A+ C-
1.02 45% 45% 39% -1 0 1.00 38% 0.8 .30 19% .51 60% .31 1.32 63% 40% 50% +13 0 1.29 37% 1.2 .43 15% .37 65% .24
Dec
18		 Georgia C B+ A B+ A+ 38% 26% 36% D+ A F A+ B- C- C+ F D+ F+ C- F F F 49% 16% 35% C F A- B+ A C- F C- F
1.02 64% 47% 38% +7 -1 1.14 18% 1.8 .32 20% .26 59% .15 1.39 64% 63% 56% +18 +1 1.41 31% 1.0 .31 14% .58 78% .45
Dec
31		 Wofford F+ D F F F 61% 4% 35% A+ F A+ F D+ F A+ F A+ D+ A F F F+ 32% 12% 56% C+ D- B+ F+ C+ B F+ C+ D-
1.04 52% 0% 22% -12 +4 0.86 43% 0.7 .30 20% .51 69% .35 1.11 44% 67% 39% +3 +1 1.10 24% 1.1 .26 17% .39 70% .27
Jan
3		 Furman B- F F+ A+ C 40% 33% 27% D- C- A+ B- A D C+ F C- C+ F B C D- 27% 25% 48% A+ C- B A- B+ F C+ A+ A
1.12 41% 33% 53% -1 -1 0.98 41% 1.1 .44 17% .27 63% .17 1.08 80% 36% 33% +5 -1 1.09 26% 0.8 .21 14% .28 47% .13
Jan
7		 Samford C+ F F A- F 52% 28% 20% B+ F A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ D- B+ F F D- 37% 21% 42% C- D D+ D+ D+ F+ C F F
1.14 46% 21% 40% -9 0 0.84 41% 1.5 .59 15% .44 88% .38 1.22 53% 45% 41% +4 0 1.10 26% 1.1 .29 10% .35 90% .31
Jan
10		 The Citadel D C D- F+ F 35% 15% 50% D+ F D F F+ A- D+ F D D- B- D+ C+ C- 35% 20% 45% C+ C- F F F D+ F F F
1.10 62% 33% 30% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.8 .24 11% .26 63% .16 1.13 53% 40% 32% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.1 .42 16% .47 82% .39
Jan
14		 East Tennessee St. C+ C- A+ B- B+ 36% 17% 47% C- B A- D- C+ F+ D- C+ D- C- C A C B- 44% 14% 42% D C+ D+ A+ A+ F F C F+
1.15 59% 63% 36% +6 0 1.15 39% 0.8 .32 22% .25 75% .18 1.08 59% 29% 33% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.5 .13 8% .40 74% .29
Jan
17		 Chattanooga B F A+ A+ B 40% 23% 37% D+ B- B+ F D+ A- C+ F D F D+ A+ F F 32% 8% 60% F F C F D- F F+ F F
1.26 43% 67% 42% +5 0 1.12 39% 0.8 .32 9% .36 62% .22 1.38 63% 25% 50% +15 +1 1.34 21% 1.4 .29 11% .33 95% .31
Jan
21		 Mercer C- D C D F+ 42% 10% 48% A- D- A- C B+ F C+ D C F D+ F A+ B+ 44% 11% 44% F B- F C F F F C+ F
1.09 50% 40% 32% -5 +2 0.96 41% 1.0 .41 23% .28 73% .20 1.26 63% 67% 21% -4 +2 0.98 47% 1.0 .47 10% .45 71% .32
Jan
24		 VMI A+ D+ A- A C 41% 11% 48% B+ C+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F F F C- D- A+ D+ D 27% 14% 59% C+ D+ A+ F C+ D- A+ F A+
1.51 59% 50% 42% +8 +1 1.20 57% 1.1 .63 7% .06 33% .02 1.00 62% 0% 34% -4 0 0.94 16% 1.4 .22 14% .12 83% .10
Jan
29		 East Tennessee St. A+ A+ F B A- 33% 15% 52% C- A- B A+ A+ B A+ C+ A+ F C F D+ F+ 40% 20% 40% C+ D- C+ C C+ F F F+ F
1.31 87% 14% 38% +8 0 1.20 35% 1.3 .45 16% .49 75% .37 1.29 60% 60% 35% +6 0 1.14 26% 1.1 .29 9% .56 80% .45
Feb
1		 Samford D- D- D- F F 35% 26% 39% C+ F D+ F F+ A- A C A- F F A+ F F 36% 11% 52% F+ F F+ B- D+ B F D F
1.02 50% 33% 27% -8 -1 0.84 23% 0.8 .18 10% .37 75% .28 1.21 75% 20% 39% +8 +1 1.20 30% 1.0 .30 17% .68 73% .50
Feb
4		 UNC Greensboro C F A+ B- C- 28% 26% 45% D- D+ B+ F D+ D+ A+ D- A- F+ A+ D- F D+ 40% 19% 40% D- D+ F B F+ B F F F
1.17 40% 64% 38% +4 -1 1.08 37% 0.8 .29 15% .37 67% .25 1.21 37% 44% 47% +1 0 1.04 39% 0.9 .36 18% .49 89% .44
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Wofford F F F F F 51% 7% 42% A- F C+ B B- C- F F F C- F F+ C F 49% 17% 34% C- F A+ C A A- A+ F B
0.96 43% 25% 26% -14 +3 0.80 32% 1.2 .39 16% .17 60% .10 1.12 69% 44% 33% +6 +1 1.17 15% 1.0 .15 19% .22 92% .20
Feb
11		 The Citadel A C F A+ C+ 53% 4% 43% A B B+ A+ A+ B F F F A+ A A+ A+ A+ 36% 16% 49% D+ A+ A- B B+ B- C- F F
1.39 63% 0% 45% +8 +3 1.25 40% 1.6 .63 13% .20 55% .11 0.78 44% 14% 23% -17 0 0.69 21% 0.9 .18 19% .28 93% .26
Feb
14		 Chattanooga C+ F A- C- D- 35% 18% 47% C- D- A+ C- A D+ A A A+ C- C F B D- 30% 25% 46% B- D C F F F+ A+ F A+
1.18 44% 44% 33% -4 0 0.94 47% 1.1 .53 15% .42 80% .34 1.10 59% 64% 31% +4 -1 1.09 21% 1.7 .34 12% .10 100% .10
Feb
18		 UNC Greensboro B C A- A B- 29% 25% 46% D C+ D+ A+ A+ C- A+ B+ A+ D+ F+ F D F 51% 12% 37% F F A- A+ A+ B- C+ C C+
1.29 60% 46% 42% +8 -1 1.15 27% 2.1 .57 14% .36 77% .28 1.09 65% 50% 37% +7 +2 1.20 21% 0.3 .07 17% .34 70% .24
Feb
21		 VMI B C A- D D- 21% 26% 53% F F+ F A+ D+ A+ C- A+ B C+ B- C+ F F 31% 18% 51% B- F+ A+ A+ A+ F A A A
1.28 64% 50% 32% +3 -2 1.04 29% 1.3 .37 5% .28 88% .25 0.98 50% 33% 38% 0 0 1.02 14% 0.6 .08 11% .20 64% .12
Feb
25		 Mercer C F A+ D- D+ 43% 20% 36% C+ C- C F D C A+ A+ A+ C C- F A+ C- 46% 30% 24% C+ C- B+ A+ A B- D C D
1.14 42% 78% 31% 0 0 1.02 33% 0.8 .27 17% .48 93% .44 1.08 61% 60% 17% +2 -1 1.04 28% 0.8 .21 17% .39 73% .28
Feb
28		 Furman A+ D A+ C C 40% 18% 42% C+ C A A+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ C D- A- B- D- 63% 6% 31% F F+ A+ C- A+ F A- A+ A+
1.35 50% 56% 33% -1 0 1.02 39% 1.7 .67 6% .37 59% .22 1.05 69% 33% 31% +5 +4 1.20 13% 1.0 .13 14% .22 25% .05
Mar
7		 Mercer C+ F A+ F F 35% 22% 43% D+ F A+ B A+ F+ A+ C- A+ C+ D B+ F D+ 26% 36% 38% A+ C B+ A+ A F B A+ A
1.14 35% 64% 14% -15 0 0.71 58% 1.1 .63 21% .38 75% .28 1.09 64% 32% 40% +3 -3 1.02 28% 0.7 .21 7% .31 58% .18
Mar
8		 East Tennessee St. D+ D C- D+ D- 32% 15% 54% C- D- B+ F D+ D- A+ B- A+ C+ F A+ A C+ 36% 22% 42% B C+ B+ F F+ C+ F+ A+ C
1.02 54% 33% 32% -4 0 0.95 37% 0.7 .26 21% .49 76% .37 1.05 81% 20% 26% -1 0 1.00 23% 1.7 .39 17% .39 62% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 100.0 100.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 100.0% 100.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%