Western Carolina
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -3.9 230
Results Rating -4.7 242
Consistency 0.16 232
Pace 70.3 129
Improvement +7.6 6

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 149 D+ C+ C C- C
Defense D 301 D B- D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 172 D 53% 302 -1.9 251
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% 172 B- 41% 81 +0.6 146
Three Pointers 41% 182 D+ 32% 252 -1.1 218
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 186 D+ -2.4 264
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 256
Second Chance B- 33.8% 84 C 1.02 203 C+ 0.34 102
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.8% 116
Other Turnovers D+ 7.9% 269
Turnovers C 16.8% 181
Freethrows C- 0.29 221 C- 71% 240 C- 0.21 228
Total Offense C +0.5 149

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 44% 258 B 8.8% 59
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 15% 325 B- 3.6% 83
Three Pointers F+ 74% 348 C+ 0.6% 119
Total D- 47% 324 B 4.4% 50


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 183 C- 60% 232 +0.7 209
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 199 D- 44% 342 +0.9 258
Three Pointers 42% 146 D- 38% 343 +2.9 310
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 182 D- +4.2 329
1st FG Attempt D 1.11 323
Second Chance B- 27.5% 74 C 1.02 157 B- 0.28 89
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.4% 264
Other Turnovers C- 6.8% 251
Turnovers D+ 15.2% 274
Freethrows C- 0.31 214 D 75% 315 C- 0.23 247
Total Defense D -4.4 301

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A- 38% 21 D+ 8.4% 279
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 169 D+ 3.4% 266
Three Pointers B 79% 61 D+ 0.5% 242
Total B 49% 56 D+ 4.1% 297

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 228 16.6 48
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 286 0.18 225
Consistency 0.14 266 0.10 30
Improvement +5.4 4 +2.2 76

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 246 232 209
Results Rating Rank 259 242 173
Conference Record 10 - 8 10 - 8 10 - 8
Conference Finish 5 5 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 8% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 n/a
.500 or above 6% 8% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four2% 3% 0%
First Round5% 7% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 01 - 5
Quad 33 - 43 - 9
Quad 410 - 713 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 41 @Cincinnati L 63 - 94 4% -20  0% 0 - 1 F+ -15 F+ -8 C- D+ F C- -3 F B- B+
 Sat, Nov 8 2 @Duke L 54 - 95 1% -23  4% 0 - 2 D- -12 F -11 F+ C- B- B- +2 A C+ D
 Sun, Nov 16 320 Stetson W 76 - 65 80% +8  84% 1 - 2 C- -2 F -11 B+ F F A- +8 A+ C F
 Wed, Nov 19 247 UNC Asheville W 80 - 73 65% +1  58% 2 - 2 C -1 B+ +8 D+ B A- F+ -8 F A+ C
 Sat, Nov 22 198 @Lipscomb L 62 - 83 32% -12  17% 2 - 3 F -20 F -16 F D+ F C- -3 D D D+
 Sat, Nov 29 94 @High Point L 73 - 93 12% -7  36% 2 - 4 D -11 D -5 A F F D -5 F A+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 302 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 78 56% -4  4% 2 - 5 F+ -16 F+ -10 F D B- D -6 D+ C- C
 Thu, Dec 11 56 @Virginia Tech L 74 - 96 7% -15  0% 2 - 6 D -9 C+ +2 B- C C- F -10 F D- C+
 Thu, Dec 18 29 @Georgia L 82 - 112 3% -16  0% 2 - 7 D- -12 C +1 A B- C- F+ -9 F A- C
 Wed, Dec 31 244 Wofford L 74 - 79 64% -3  20% 2 - 8 0 - 1 D- -12 F+ -9 F D+ F C- -3 D- C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 183 @Furman W 80 - 77 OT 31% +3  65% 3 - 8 1 - 1 C+ +4 B- +5 C A D- C -1 D+ B+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 191 @Samford L 77 - 82 32% +6  88% 3 - 9 1 - 2 C- -4 B- +4 F A+ D+ D- -8 D- D+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 345 @The Citadel L 77 - 79 OT 72% +2  60% 3 - 10 1 - 3 D- -12 D+ -3 F F+ A- F+ -9 C- F D
 Wed, Jan 14 141 East Tennessee St. W 72 - 68 42% -0  38% 4 - 10 2 - 3 C+ +2 B- +4 B B- F+ C -1 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 286 Chattanooga L 82 - 90 73% +3  59% 4 - 11 2 - 4 F -18 B +7 B D A F -26 F D- F
 Wed, Jan 21 177 @Mercer L 76 - 88 29% -14  0% 4 - 12 2 - 5 D -10 C- -0 D- B+ F F+ -10 B- F F
 Sat, Jan 24 358 VMI W 88 - 58 92% +12  84% 5 - 12 3 - 5 B +11 A+ +19 C+ A+ A+ C- -2 D+ C+ D
 Thu, Jan 29 141 @East Tennessee St. W 90 - 88 22% +9  100% 6 - 12 4 - 5 B- +6 A+ +19 A- A+ B+ F -12 D- C+ F
 Sun, Feb 1 191 Samford L 74 - 88 54% -8  8% 6 - 13 4 - 6 F -19 D- -8 F F+ A- F -11 F D+ B
 Wed, Feb 4 299 @UNC Greensboro L 78 - 81 55% -0  46% 6 - 14 4 - 7 D -8 C +1 D+ D C- F+ -9 D+ F+ B
 Sat, Feb 7 244 @Wofford L 66 - 77 41% -5  18% 6 - 15 4 - 8 D- -12 F -12 F B- C- C -1 F A A-
 Wed, Feb 11 345 The Citadel W 87 - 49 87% +26  97% 7 - 15 5 - 8 A +22 A +14 B A+ B A+ +13 A+ B+ B-
 Sat, Feb 14 286 @Chattanooga W 81 - 76 51% +10  96% 8 - 15 6 - 8 C +1 B- +4 D A D+ C- -3 D F F+
 Wed, Feb 18 299 UNC Greensboro W 91 - 77 76% +6  87% 9 - 15 7 - 8 C+ +3 B +6 C+ A+ C D+ -4 F A+ B-
 Sat, Feb 21 358 @VMI W 81 - 62 81% +11  99% 10 - 15 8 - 8 B- +6 B +6 F+ C- A+ B- +2 F+ A+ F
 Wed, Feb 25 177 Mercer W 78 - 74 51% -0  41% 11 - 15 9 - 8 C -0 C -0 D+ D C C+ +0 C A C+
 Sat, Feb 28 183 Furman W 86 - 67 53% +4  54% 12 - 15 10 - 8 B+ +14 A+ +18 C+ A+ A+ C- -2 F A+ F
 Sat, Mar 7 177 Mercer L 81 - 84 39%
Totals 12 - 16 10 - 8 -4 C +0 C D+ C D -4 D+ C- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D B- D+ D+ 39% 38% 41% C D+ B- C C+ C C- C- C- D C- D- D- D- 39% 20% 42% C D B- C B- D+ C- D C-
1.09 53% 41% 32% -2 0 0.97 34% 1.0 .34 17% .29 71% .21 1.15 60% 44% 38% +4 0 1.11 27% 1.0 .28 15% .31 75% .22
Nov
3		 Cincinnati F+ F+ F B- C 30% 26% 43% D+ C- A- F D+ F C- F D- C- F F D F 35% 19% 46% C- F A+ F B- B+ F B- F
0.79 44% 29% 35% -6 -1 0.87 33% 0.7 .23 28% .24 57% .14 1.18 78% 60% 38% +13 0 1.29 23% 1.3 .30 19% .46 67% .31
Nov
8		 Duke F D- F+ F F 34% 31% 36% C- F+ B+ F C- B- D+ F D- B- C F A A 42% 6% 53% C A A F C+ D F D+ F
0.71 45% 28% 19% -16 -2 0.68 28% 0.5 .15 18% .18 55% .10 1.24 64% 67% 29% 0 +2 1.06 33% 1.5 .48 13% .50 76% .38
Nov
16		 Stetson F C- A A+ B 40% 8% 52% B+ B+ F F+ F F F C F+ A- A+ D+ A+ A+ 31% 29% 40% A- A+ C+ D+ C F C- C C-
1.04 60% 50% 42% +8 +2 1.22 23% 1.0 .23 25% .20 73% .15 0.89 39% 41% 26% -10 -2 0.79 24% 1.1 .27 14% .30 68% .21
Nov
19		 UNC Asheville B+ C+ B F D+ 49% 24% 27% C- D+ A+ F B A- A+ A+ A+ F+ F D F F 15% 43% 43% A F B+ A+ A+ C F A+ C
1.24 59% 45% 25% -1 0 1.00 49% 0.7 .36 12% .51 79% .41 1.13 71% 45% 50% +15 -5 1.23 25% 0.6 .16 17% .43 52% .22
Nov
22		 Lipscomb F A+ A+ F F 25% 22% 53% D+ F F A+ D+ F C- F D C- D A+ D- D 35% 10% 55% C D C F D D+ A+ A+ A+
0.83 77% 55% 15% -7 -1 0.86 15% 1.8 .26 24% .27 60% .16 1.11 64% 17% 38% +3 +1 1.11 25% 1.2 .30 15% .09 50% .05
Nov
29		 High Point D A+ A+ C+ A+ 31% 24% 45% F+ A C- F F F C+ F D+ D F F F F 34% 21% 45% A F B A+ A+ A C B B-
0.98 75% 58% 35% +11 -1 1.22 30% 0.1 .03 26% .33 61% .20 1.25 72% 64% 46% +18 0 1.38 29% 0.6 .18 19% .35 71% .25
Dec
6		 South Carolina Upstate F+ F F F F 46% 20% 34% C F F+ A- D B- A+ A+ A+ D F C B D- 24% 24% 51% A D+ A- F C- C F F F
0.93 43% 10% 24% -18 +1 0.68 21% 1.3 .29 14% .45 82% .37 1.09 73% 36% 30% 0 -1 1.00 22% 1.3 .28 18% .51 80% .41
Dec
11		 Virginia Tech C+ F B+ A B- 41% 22% 37% C+ B- A- F C C- A+ F A+ F C- D+ F F 35% 18% 47% C F D D+ D- C+ F+ A+ C-
1.02 45% 45% 39% -1 0 1.00 38% 0.8 .30 19% .51 60% .31 1.32 63% 40% 50% +13 0 1.29 37% 1.2 .43 15% .37 65% .24
Dec
18		 Georgia C A- A B+ A+ 38% 26% 36% D+ A F A+ B- C- C+ F D+ F+ C- F F F 49% 16% 35% C F A- B A- C F D+ F
1.02 64% 47% 38% +7 -1 1.14 18% 1.8 .32 20% .26 59% .15 1.39 64% 63% 56% +18 +1 1.41 31% 1.0 .31 14% .58 78% .45
Dec
31		 Wofford F+ D F F F 61% 4% 35% A+ F A+ F D+ F A+ F A+ C- A F F F+ 32% 12% 56% C+ D- B+ D- C+ B- F+ B- D
1.04 52% 0% 22% -12 +4 0.86 43% 0.7 .30 20% .51 69% .35 1.11 44% 67% 39% +3 +1 1.10 24% 1.1 .26 17% .39 70% .27
Jan
3		 Furman B- F D- A+ C+ 40% 33% 27% D- C A C+ A D- B- F C- C F B+ C- D- 27% 25% 48% A+ D+ B A- B+ F C A+ A-
1.12 41% 33% 53% -1 -1 0.98 41% 1.1 .44 17% .27 63% .17 1.08 80% 36% 33% +5 -1 1.09 26% 0.8 .21 14% .28 47% .13
Jan
7		 Samford B- F F A- F 52% 28% 20% B+ F A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ D- B+ F F D- 37% 21% 42% C D- D+ D+ D+ F+ C F F
1.14 46% 21% 40% -9 0 0.84 41% 1.5 .59 15% .44 88% .38 1.22 53% 45% 41% +4 0 1.10 26% 1.1 .29 10% .35 90% .31
Jan
10		 The Citadel D+ C D F+ F 35% 15% 50% D+ F D F F+ A- D+ F D F+ C+ D C+ D+ 35% 20% 45% C+ C- F F F D F F F
1.10 62% 33% 30% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.8 .24 11% .26 63% .16 1.13 53% 40% 32% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.1 .42 16% .47 82% .39
Jan
14		 East Tennessee St. B- C A+ B- B+ 36% 17% 47% C- B A D- B- F+ D- C+ D C C A C B- 44% 14% 42% D C+ D+ A+ A+ F F C+ F+
1.15 59% 63% 36% +6 0 1.15 39% 0.8 .32 22% .25 75% .18 1.08 59% 29% 33% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.5 .13 8% .40 74% .29
Jan
17		 Chattanooga B F A+ A+ B 40% 23% 37% C- B B+ F D A C+ F D F D+ A+ F F 32% 8% 60% F F C F D- F F+ F F
1.26 43% 67% 42% +5 0 1.12 39% 0.8 .32 9% .36 62% .22 1.38 63% 25% 50% +15 +1 1.34 21% 1.4 .29 11% .33 95% .31
Jan
21		 Mercer C- D C D- F 42% 10% 48% A- D- A- C+ B+ F C+ D C F+ D+ F A+ B+ 44% 11% 44% F B- F C F F F C+ F
1.09 50% 40% 32% -5 +2 0.96 41% 1.0 .41 23% .28 73% .20 1.26 63% 67% 21% -4 +2 0.98 47% 1.0 .47 10% .45 71% .32
Jan
24		 VMI A+ D+ A- A C 41% 11% 48% B+ C+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F F F C- D- A+ D+ D+ 27% 14% 59% C+ D+ A+ F C+ D A+ F A+
1.51 59% 50% 42% +8 +1 1.20 57% 1.1 .63 7% .06 33% .02 1.00 62% 0% 34% -4 0 0.94 16% 1.4 .22 14% .12 83% .10
Jan
29		 East Tennessee St. A+ A+ F B A 33% 15% 52% C- A- B+ A+ A+ B+ A+ C+ A+ F C- F D+ F+ 40% 20% 40% C+ D- C+ C C+ F F D F
1.31 87% 14% 38% +8 0 1.20 35% 1.3 .45 16% .49 75% .37 1.29 60% 60% 35% +6 0 1.14 26% 1.1 .29 9% .56 80% .45
Feb
1		 Samford D- D- D- F F 35% 26% 39% C+ F D+ F F+ A- A C A- F F A+ F F 36% 11% 52% F+ F F+ B- D+ B F D- F
1.02 50% 33% 27% -8 -1 0.84 23% 0.8 .18 10% .37 75% .28 1.21 75% 20% 39% +8 +1 1.20 30% 1.0 .30 17% .68 73% .50
Feb
4		 UNC Greensboro C F A+ B- C- 28% 26% 45% D- D+ B+ F D C- A+ D- A- F+ A+ F+ F D+ 40% 19% 40% D- D+ F B F+ B F F F
1.17 40% 64% 38% +4 -1 1.08 37% 0.8 .29 15% .37 67% .25 1.21 37% 44% 47% +1 0 1.04 39% 0.9 .36 18% .49 89% .44
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Wofford F F F F F 51% 7% 42% A- F C+ B B- C- F F F C F D- C F 49% 17% 34% C- F A+ C A A- A+ F B
0.96 43% 25% 26% -14 +3 0.80 32% 1.2 .39 16% .17 60% .10 1.12 69% 44% 33% +6 +1 1.17 15% 1.0 .15 19% .22 92% .20
Feb
11		 The Citadel A C F A+ B- 53% 4% 43% A B B+ A+ A+ B F F F A+ A A+ A+ A+ 36% 16% 49% D+ A+ A- B- B+ B- C- F F
1.39 63% 0% 45% +8 +3 1.25 40% 1.6 .63 13% .20 55% .11 0.78 44% 14% 23% -17 0 0.69 21% 0.9 .18 19% .28 93% .26
Feb
14		 Chattanooga B- F A- C- D- 35% 18% 47% C D A+ C- A D+ A A A+ C- C F B- D- 30% 25% 46% B- D C F F F+ A+ F A+
1.18 44% 44% 33% -4 0 0.94 47% 1.1 .53 15% .42 80% .34 1.10 59% 64% 31% +4 -1 1.09 21% 1.7 .34 12% .10 100% .10
Feb
18		 UNC Greensboro B C B+ A B- 29% 25% 46% D C+ D A+ A+ C A+ B+ A+ D+ F+ F D F 51% 12% 37% F F A- A+ A+ B- C+ C C+
1.29 60% 46% 42% +8 -1 1.15 27% 2.1 .57 14% .36 77% .28 1.09 65% 50% 37% +7 +2 1.20 21% 0.3 .07 17% .34 70% .24
Feb
21		 VMI B C A- D D- 21% 26% 53% F F+ F A+ C- A+ C- A+ B B- B- C+ F F 31% 18% 51% B- F+ A+ A+ A+ F A A A
1.28 64% 50% 32% +3 -2 1.04 29% 1.3 .37 5% .28 88% .25 0.98 50% 33% 38% 0 0 1.02 14% 0.6 .08 11% .20 64% .12
Feb
25		 Mercer C F A+ D- D+ 43% 20% 36% C+ D+ C F+ D C A+ A+ A+ C+ C- F A+ C- 46% 30% 24% C+ C B+ A+ A C+ D C D
1.14 42% 78% 31% 0 0 1.02 33% 0.8 .27 17% .48 93% .44 1.08 61% 60% 17% +2 -1 1.04 28% 0.8 .21 17% .39 73% .28
Feb
28		 Furman A+ D A+ C C+ 40% 18% 42% C+ C+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ C- D- A C+ D- 63% 6% 31% F F A+ C- A+ F A- A+ A+
1.35 50% 56% 33% -1 0 1.02 39% 1.7 .67 6% .37 59% .22 1.05 69% 33% 31% +5 +4 1.20 13% 1.0 .13 14% .22 25% .05



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 100.0 100.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 100.0% 6.2% 6.2% 15.7 1.6 4.6 93.8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 15.7 93.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.2% 100.0% 15.7 26.3 73.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 10.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 21.6%
Lose Out 22.4%