Preseason Rankings
Western Carolina
Southern
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#273
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.5#41
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#279
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#261
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 7.0% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 13.4 14.7
.500 or above 17.7% 50.6% 17.0%
.500 or above in Conference 34.3% 61.3% 33.7%
Conference Champion 3.0% 9.2% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 15.7% 5.3% 16.0%
First Four0.7% 0.3% 0.7%
First Round3.1% 6.9% 3.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cincinnati (Away) - 2.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 62 - 13
Quad 48 - 610 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 45   @ Cincinnati L 59-80 2%    
  Nov 08, 2025 3   @ Duke L 57-88 0.2%   
  Nov 16, 2025 350   Stetson W 80-71 80%    
  Nov 19, 2025 184   UNC Asheville L 75-76 45%    
  Nov 22, 2025 188   @ Lipscomb L 68-75 26%    
  Nov 29, 2025 108   @ High Point L 68-81 12%    
  Dec 06, 2025 336   @ South Carolina Upstate W 81-79 55%    
  Dec 11, 2025 76   @ Virginia Tech L 64-80 8%    
  Dec 18, 2025 51   @ Georgia L 63-83 5%    
  Dec 31, 2025 206   Wofford L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 03, 2026 133   @ Furman L 67-78 18%    
  Jan 07, 2026 166   @ Samford L 75-83 25%    
  Jan 10, 2026 342   @ The Citadel W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 14, 2026 152   East Tennessee St. L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 17, 2026 125   Chattanooga L 72-77 33%    
  Jan 21, 2026 248   @ Mercer L 74-78 36%    
  Jan 24, 2026 296   VMI W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 29, 2026 152   @ East Tennessee St. L 66-75 22%    
  Jan 31, 2026 166   Samford L 78-80 43%    
  Feb 04, 2026 225   @ UNC Greensboro L 65-71 32%    
  Feb 07, 2026 206   @ Wofford L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 11, 2026 342   The Citadel W 74-66 75%    
  Feb 14, 2026 125   @ Chattanooga L 69-80 18%    
  Feb 18, 2026 225   UNC Greensboro W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 21, 2026 296   @ VMI L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 25, 2026 248   Mercer W 77-75 55%    
  Feb 28, 2026 133   Furman L 70-75 35%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.1 2.5 2.0 0.5 0.1 6.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.7 3.0 0.5 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.1 2.8 0.4 0.0 11.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 4.0 5.9 3.0 0.5 0.0 14.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.9 5.4 2.6 0.4 0.0 15.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 2.9 4.9 4.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 14.4 9th
10th 0.5 1.6 2.8 2.9 1.7 0.6 0.1 10.2 10th
Total 0.5 1.7 3.6 6.1 8.6 10.6 11.5 12.0 11.0 9.8 8.0 6.3 4.4 2.8 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 93.9% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 80.5% 0.7    0.5 0.2
14-4 54.1% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.1
13-5 23.1% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 41.5% 37.7% 3.8% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.1%
16-2 0.4% 33.5% 33.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.9% 26.3% 26.3% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
14-4 1.7% 20.7% 20.7% 13.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3
13-5 2.8% 14.9% 14.9% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.4
12-6 4.4% 10.3% 10.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.9
11-7 6.3% 7.3% 7.3% 16.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.9
10-8 8.0% 4.9% 4.9% 16.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 7.6
9-9 9.8% 3.4% 3.4% 18.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.5
8-10 11.0% 1.8% 1.8% 17.8 0.0 0.2 10.8
7-11 12.0% 1.1% 1.1% 17.0 0.0 0.1 11.8
6-12 11.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.5
5-13 10.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.6
4-14 8.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.6
3-15 6.1% 6.1
2-16 3.6% 3.6
1-17 1.7% 1.7
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 96.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%