Western Carolina
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.5#299
Expected Predictive Rating-6.2#256
Pace74.5#57
Improvement+0.0#179

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#292
First Shot-3.8#290
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#225
Layup/Dunks-2.8#280
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#100
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#260
Freethrows-0.2#197
Improvement+0.2#162

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#277
First Shot-4.9#334
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#49
Layups/Dunks+2.5#88
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#291
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#328
Freethrows-1.4#281
Improvement-0.2#201
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.3% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 7.6% 12.3% 3.5%
.500 or above in Conference 32.3% 45.4% 20.7%
Conference Champion 1.5% 2.6% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 11.2% 6.1% 15.7%
First Four1.4% 1.6% 1.2%
First Round1.8% 2.5% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Home) - 47.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 61 - 12
Quad 49 - 610 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 67 @Cincinnati L 63-94 5%     0 - 1 -19.8 -6.7 -9.2
  Sat, Nov 8 4 @Duke L 54-95 1%     0 - 2 -16.1 -10.8 -1.9
  Sun, Nov 16 349 Stetson W 76-65 77%     1 - 2 -4.4 -7.5 +2.6
  Wed, Nov 19 232 UNC Asheville W 80-73 49%     2 - 2 -0.4 +10.5 -10.2
  Sat, Nov 22 144 @Lipscomb L 62-83 14%     2 - 3 -16.8 -11.2 -4.4
  Sat, Nov 29 101 @High Point L 73-93 8%     2 - 4 -11.7 -3.5 -7.1
  Sat, Dec 6 264 @South Carolina Upstate L 67-78 32%     2 - 5 -13.7 -7.4 -6.0
  Thu, Dec 11 74 @Virginia Tech L 74-96 6%     2 - 6 -11.3 +3.0 -13.6
  Thu, Dec 18 22 @Georgia L 82-112 2%     2 - 7 -11.1 +6.8 -14.0
  Wed, Dec 31 220 Wofford L 75-76 47%    
  Sat, Jan 3 148 @Furman L 70-81 14%    
  Wed, Jan 7 227 @Samford L 74-80 27%    
  Sat, Jan 10 355 @The Citadel W 75-72 62%    
  Wed, Jan 14 141 East Tennessee St. L 72-78 30%    
  Sat, Jan 17 235 Chattanooga L 74-75 49%    
  Wed, Jan 21 174 @Mercer L 75-84 19%    
  Sat, Jan 24 332 VMI W 81-75 70%    
  Thu, Jan 29 141 @East Tennessee St. L 69-81 14%    
  Sat, Jan 31 227 Samford L 76-77 49%    
  Wed, Feb 4 294 @UNC Greensboro L 75-78 38%    
  Sat, Feb 7 220 @Wofford L 72-79 27%    
  Wed, Feb 11 355 The Citadel W 78-69 79%    
  Sat, Feb 14 235 @Chattanooga L 72-78 29%    
  Wed, Feb 18 294 UNC Greensboro W 78-75 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 332 @VMI L 77-78 49%    
  Wed, Feb 25 174 Mercer L 78-81 38%    
  Sat, Feb 28 148 Furman L 73-78 31%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 2.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.4 3.0 0.4 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.3 6.5 3.8 0.5 14.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.3 7.1 4.1 0.6 0.0 17.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 5.1 7.2 3.7 0.6 0.0 18.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.4 4.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 13.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.1 1.5 0.5 0.0 6.3 10th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.0 7.5 11.2 13.9 14.7 13.9 11.9 8.5 5.6 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 92.4% 0.2    0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 56.8% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 30.0% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 18.2% 18.2% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.8% 16.3% 16.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
13-5 1.8% 11.6% 11.6% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.6
12-6 3.4% 9.0% 9.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.1
11-7 5.6% 6.4% 6.4% 15.6 0.1 0.2 5.3
10-8 8.5% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4 8.1
9-9 11.9% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.4 11.5
8-10 13.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.3 13.6
7-11 14.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 14.6
6-12 13.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 13.8
5-13 11.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 11.1
4-14 7.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.5
3-15 4.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.0
2-16 1.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.9
1-17 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%