Western Carolina
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -5.2 255
Expected Predictive Rating -6.1 263
Pace 71.4 106
Improvement +4.8 28

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 167 D+ C+ C- D+ C
Defense D 316 D- C+ D+ D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 157 D+ 53% 293 -1.4 234
2 Pt. Jumpers 39% 167 C 39% 160 +0.0 184
Three Pointers 41% 191 C- 33% 226 -0.8 214
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 182 D+ -2.3 260
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.98 247
Second Chance B- 34.2% 74 C- 0.98 246 C+ 0.34 116
Turnovers C- 17.4% 221
Freethrows C- 0.28 249 D+ 69% 275 D+ 0.20 271
Total Offense C +0.0 167

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 45% 237 B 8.7% 60
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 12% 344 B- 3.6% 81
Three Pointers F 71% 360 C+ 0.8% 156
Total D- 47% 327 B 4.4% 57

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 223 C- 60% 231 -0.1 180
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 207 D- 44% 338 +0.7 245
Three Pointers 43% 103 F+ 39% 348 +4.2 340
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 173 D- +4.7 339
1st FG Attempt D- 1.12 329
Second Chance B- 28.5% 99 C 1.03 179 C+ 0.29 128
Turnovers D+ 15.3% 271
Freethrows C- 0.32 233 D- 76% 341 D+ 0.24 269
Total Defense D -5.2 316

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 41% 40 D+ 9.0% 257
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 171 D+ 3.4% 270
Three Pointers B 79% 360 C- 0.6% 156
Total B- 51% 87 D+ 4.3% 291

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 193 16.4 42
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 262 0.19 250
Improvement +4.4 #13 +0.4 #166

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 4% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1% 1% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 57% 70% 18%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four3% 3% 2%
First Round3% 3% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: VMI (Away) - 75.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 11 - 5
Quad 32 - 53 - 10
Quad 48 - 812 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 46 @Cincinnati L 63 - 94 4% -20  0% 0 - 1 F+ -17 F+ -8 C- C- F D+ -4 F B- B+
 Sat, Nov 8 2 @Duke L 54 - 95 1% -23  4% 0 - 2 D- -14 F -12 F C- B- C+ +2 A C+ D
 Sun, Nov 16 325 Stetson W 76 - 65 79% +8  84% 1 - 2 C- -3 F -10 B F F A- +7 A C F
 Wed, Nov 19 217 UNC Asheville W 80 - 73 53% +1  58% 2 - 2 C +1 B+ +9 D+ B A- D- -8 F A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 22 192 @Lipscomb L 62 - 83 28% -12  17% 2 - 3 F -20 F -16 F D+ F C- -3 D D+ D+
 Sat, Nov 29 93 @High Point L 73 - 93 10% -7  36% 2 - 4 D -11 D -5 A- F F+ D -5 F A+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 303 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 78 51% -4  4% 2 - 5 F+ -16 F -10 F D B- D -6 D+ C- C
 Thu, Dec 11 57 @Virginia Tech L 74 - 96 6% -15  0% 2 - 6 D -10 C+ +2 B- C C- F -11 F D- C
 Thu, Dec 18 37 @Georgia L 82 - 112 3% -16  0% 2 - 7 D- -13 C+ +2 A B- C F -11 F A- C-
 Wed, Dec 31 229 Wofford L 74 - 79 56% -3  20% 2 - 8 0 - 1 D- -12 F+ -9 F D+ F C- -3 D- C B-
 Sat, Jan 3 179 @Furman W 80 - 77 OT 25% +3  65% 3 - 8 1 - 1 C+ +5 B- +5 C A D C -0 C- B+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 187 @Samford L 77 - 82 26% +6  88% 3 - 9 1 - 2 C- -4 B- +4 F A+ D+ D- -8 D- D+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 345 @The Citadel L 77 - 79 OT 67% +2  60% 3 - 10 1 - 3 D- -12 D+ -3 F D- B+ F+ -9 C- F D-
 Wed, Jan 14 133 East Tennessee St. W 72 - 68 35% -0  38% 4 - 10 2 - 3 C+ +3 B- +4 B B- D- C -1 C A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 294 Chattanooga L 82 - 90 70% +3  59% 4 - 11 2 - 4 F -19 B+ +8 B D A F -27 F D- F
 Wed, Jan 21 167 @Mercer L 76 - 88 23% -14  0% 4 - 12 2 - 5 D -9 C +1 D B+ F F -11 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 358 VMI W 88 - 58 89% +12  84% 5 - 12 3 - 5 B+ +11 A+ +20 C+ A+ A+ C- -2 D+ C+ D-
 Thu, Jan 29 133 @East Tennessee St. W 90 - 88 17% +9  100% 6 - 12 4 - 5 B- +7 A+ +19 A- A+ B+ F -12 D- C+ F
 Sun, Feb 1 187 Samford L 74 - 88 48% -8  8% 6 - 13 4 - 6 F -19 D- -8 F F+ A- F -10 F D+ B+
 Wed, Feb 4 300 @UNC Greensboro L 78 - 81 49% -0  46% 6 - 14 4 - 7 D+ -8 C +0 D+ D+ D+ F+ -8 D F+ B
 Sat, Feb 7 229 @Wofford L 66 - 77 34% -5  18% 6 - 15 4 - 8 D- -12 F -11 F B- C- C -1 F A A-
 Wed, Feb 11 345 The Citadel W 87 - 49 84% +26  97% 7 - 15 5 - 8 A +22 A+ +14 B A+ B- A+ +13 A+ B+ C+
 Sat, Feb 14 294 @Chattanooga W 81 - 76 47% +10  96% 8 - 15 6 - 8 C +0 B- +5 D A C- D+ -4 D- F F+
 Wed, Feb 18 300 UNC Greensboro W 91 - 77 71% +6  87% 9 - 15 7 - 8 C+ +3 B +6 C+ A+ C- D+ -3 F A+ B-
 Sat, Feb 21 358 @VMI W 83 - 76 75%
 Wed, Feb 25 167 Mercer L 81 - 83 43%
 Sat, Feb 28 179 Furman L 75 - 76 46%
Totals 11 - 16 9 - 9 -5 C +0 D- D+ C D -5 C- D+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ C C- D+ 39% 39% 41% C D+ B- C- C+ C- C- D+ D+ D C- D- F+ D- 37% 20% 43% C D- B- C C+ D+ C- D- D+
1.09 53% 39% 33% -2 0 0.98 34% 1.0 .34 17% .28 69% .20 1.16 60% 44% 39% +5 0 1.12 29% 1.0 .29 15% .32 76% .22
Nov
3		 Cincinnati F+ D- F B- C- 30% 26% 43% D+ C- A- F C- F C- F D D+ F F D F 35% 19% 46% C F A+ F B- B+ F B- F
0.79 44% 29% 35% -6 -1 0.87 33% 0.7 .23 28% .24 57% .14 1.18 78% 60% 38% +14 0 1.29 23% 1.3 .30 19% .46 67% .31
Nov
8		 Duke F D- F+ F F 34% 31% 36% C- F B+ F C- B- D+ F D- C+ C F A A 42% 6% 53% C A A F C+ D F D F
0.71 45% 28% 19% -16 -2 0.68 28% 0.5 .15 18% .18 55% .10 1.24 64% 67% 29% 0 +2 1.06 33% 1.5 .48 13% .50 76% .38
Nov
16		 Stetson F C- A A+ B 40% 8% 52% B+ B F F+ F F F+ C F+ A- A+ D+ A A 31% 29% 40% B+ A C+ D+ C F C- C+ C
1.04 60% 50% 42% +8 +2 1.22 23% 1.0 .23 25% .20 73% .15 0.89 39% 41% 26% -10 -2 0.79 24% 1.1 .27 14% .30 68% .21
Nov
19		 UNC Asheville B+ C B F D+ 49% 24% 27% C- D+ A+ F B A- A+ A+ A+ D- F D F F 15% 43% 43% A F B A+ A+ C- F A+ C
1.24 59% 45% 25% -1 0 1.00 49% 0.7 .36 12% .51 79% .41 1.13 71% 45% 50% +15 -5 1.23 25% 0.6 .16 17% .43 52% .22
Nov
22		 Lipscomb F A+ A+ F F 25% 22% 53% C- F F A+ D+ F C- F D- C- D A+ D- D- 35% 10% 55% C D C F+ D+ D+ A+ A+ A+
0.83 77% 55% 15% -7 -1 0.86 15% 1.8 .26 24% .27 60% .16 1.11 64% 17% 38% +3 +1 1.11 25% 1.2 .30 15% .09 50% .05
Nov
29		 High Point D A+ A+ C+ A 31% 24% 45% D- A- C- F F F+ C+ F D D F F F F 34% 21% 45% A F B- A+ A+ A C+ B B-
0.98 75% 58% 35% +11 -1 1.22 30% 0.1 .03 26% .33 61% .20 1.25 72% 64% 46% +18 0 1.38 29% 0.6 .18 19% .35 71% .25
Dec
6		 South Carolina Upstate F F F F F 46% 20% 34% C F F A D B- A+ A+ A+ D F C B D 24% 24% 51% A- D+ A- F C- C F F F
0.93 43% 10% 24% -18 +1 0.68 21% 1.3 .29 14% .45 82% .37 1.09 73% 36% 30% 0 -1 1.00 22% 1.3 .28 18% .51 80% .41
Dec
11		 Virginia Tech C+ F B+ A B- 41% 22% 37% C+ B- A- F C C- A+ F A+ F C- D+ F F 35% 18% 47% C F D D+ D- C D- A C-
1.02 45% 45% 39% -1 0 1.00 38% 0.8 .30 19% .51 60% .31 1.32 63% 40% 50% +13 0 1.29 37% 1.2 .43 15% .37 65% .24
Dec
18		 Georgia C+ A- A B+ A+ 38% 26% 36% C- A F A+ B- C C+ F C- F C- F F F 49% 16% 35% C- F A- B- A- C- F D+ F
1.02 64% 47% 38% +7 -1 1.14 18% 1.8 .32 20% .26 59% .15 1.39 64% 63% 56% +18 +1 1.41 31% 1.0 .31 14% .58 78% .45
Dec
31		 Wofford F+ D F F F 61% 4% 35% A+ F A+ F D+ F A+ F A+ C- A F F+ F+ 32% 12% 56% C+ D- B+ F+ C B- D- B- D
1.04 52% 0% 22% -12 +4 0.86 43% 0.7 .30 20% .51 69% .35 1.11 44% 67% 39% +3 +1 1.10 24% 1.1 .26 17% .39 70% .27
Jan
3		 Furman B- F D- A+ C+ 40% 33% 27% D C A B- A D B- F C- C F A- C- D 27% 25% 48% A+ C- B B+ B+ F C A+ A-
1.12 41% 33% 53% 0 -1 0.98 41% 1.1 .44 17% .27 63% .17 1.08 80% 36% 33% +5 -1 1.09 26% 0.8 .21 14% .28 47% .13
Jan
7		 Samford B- F F A- F 52% 28% 20% B+ F A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ D- B+ F+ F F+ 37% 21% 42% C D- D+ D+ D+ D- C+ F F
1.14 46% 21% 40% -9 0 0.84 41% 1.5 .59 15% .44 88% .38 1.22 53% 45% 41% +4 0 1.10 26% 1.1 .29 10% .35 90% .31
Jan
10		 The Citadel D+ C D- F+ F 35% 15% 50% C- F D+ F D- B+ D+ F+ D F+ C+ D+ C+ D+ 35% 20% 45% C C- F F F D- F F F
1.10 62% 33% 30% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.8 .24 11% .26 63% .16 1.13 53% 40% 32% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.1 .42 16% .47 82% .39
Jan
14		 East Tennessee St. B- C A+ B- B+ 36% 17% 47% C- B A D- B- D- D- C D- C C A C C+ 44% 14% 42% D C D+ A+ A+ F F B- D-
1.15 59% 63% 36% +6 0 1.15 39% 0.8 .32 22% .25 75% .18 1.08 59% 29% 33% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.5 .13 8% .40 74% .29
Jan
17		 Chattanooga B+ F A+ A+ B+ 40% 23% 37% C- B B+ F D A C F D F D A+ F F 32% 8% 60% F F C- F D- F D- F F
1.26 43% 67% 42% +5 0 1.12 39% 0.8 .32 9% .36 62% .22 1.38 63% 25% 50% +15 +1 1.34 21% 1.4 .29 11% .33 95% .31
Jan
21		 Mercer C D C D F+ 42% 10% 48% B+ D A C+ B+ F B- C- C+ F D+ F A+ B- 44% 11% 44% F C+ F C F F F B- F
1.09 50% 40% 32% -5 +2 0.96 41% 1.0 .41 23% .28 73% .20 1.26 63% 67% 21% -4 +2 0.98 47% 1.0 .47 10% .45 71% .32
Jan
24		 VMI A+ D+ A- A C 41% 11% 48% B+ C+ A+ B- A+ A+ F F F C- D- A+ D+ D+ 27% 14% 59% C+ D+ A+ F C+ D- A+ F A+
1.51 59% 50% 42% +8 +1 1.20 57% 1.1 .63 7% .06 33% .02 1.00 62% 0% 34% -4 0 0.94 16% 1.4 .22 14% .12 83% .10
Jan
29		 East Tennessee St. A+ A+ F B A 33% 15% 52% C- A- B+ A+ A+ B+ A+ C A+ F C- F D+ F+ 40% 20% 40% C+ D- C+ C C+ F F D F
1.31 87% 14% 38% +8 0 1.20 35% 1.3 .45 16% .49 75% .37 1.29 60% 60% 35% +6 0 1.14 26% 1.1 .29 9% .56 80% .45
Feb
1		 Samford D- D- F+ F F 35% 26% 39% C+ F D F F+ A- A- C A- F F A+ F F 36% 11% 52% F+ F F+ B- D+ B+ F D- F
1.02 50% 33% 27% -8 -1 0.84 23% 0.8 .18 10% .37 75% .28 1.21 75% 20% 39% +8 +1 1.20 30% 1.0 .30 17% .68 73% .50
Feb
4		 UNC Greensboro C F A+ B- C- 28% 26% 45% D- D+ B+ F D+ D+ A+ D A- F+ A+ F+ F D+ 40% 19% 40% D- D F B- F+ B F F F
1.17 40% 64% 38% +4 -1 1.08 37% 0.8 .29 15% .37 67% .25 1.21 37% 44% 47% +1 0 1.04 39% 0.9 .36 18% .49 89% .44
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Wofford F F F F F 51% 7% 42% A- F C+ B- B- C- F F F C F D- C F 49% 17% 34% C- F A+ C- A A- A+ F B
0.96 43% 25% 26% -14 +3 0.80 32% 1.2 .39 16% .17 60% .10 1.12 69% 44% 33% +6 +1 1.17 15% 1.0 .15 19% .22 92% .20
Feb
11		 The Citadel A+ C F A+ B- 53% 4% 43% A B A- A+ A+ B- F F F A+ A A+ A+ A+ 36% 16% 49% D+ A+ A- B- B+ C+ C- F F
1.39 63% 0% 45% +9 +3 1.25 40% 1.6 .63 13% .20 55% .11 0.78 44% 14% 23% -17 0 0.69 21% 0.9 .18 19% .28 93% .26
Feb
14		 Chattanooga B- F A- C- D 35% 18% 47% C D A+ C- A C- A- A- A+ D+ C- F B- F+ 30% 25% 46% B D- C- F F F+ A+ F A+
1.18 44% 44% 33% -4 0 0.94 47% 1.1 .53 15% .42 80% .34 1.10 59% 64% 31% +4 -1 1.09 21% 1.7 .34 12% .10 100% .10
Feb
18		 UNC Greensboro B C A- A B- 29% 25% 46% D C+ D A+ A+ C- A A- A+ D+ F+ F D F 51% 12% 37% F F A- A+ A+ B- B- C- C+
1.29 60% 46% 42% +8 -1 1.15 27% 2.1 .57 14% .36 77% .28 1.09 65% 50% 37% +7 +2 1.20 21% 0.3 .07 17% .34 70% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.9 0.9 3rd
4th 0.4 7.5 8.0 4th
5th 0.1 12.6 7.4 20.1 5th
6th 13.0 23.6 0.0 36.7 6th
7th 6.3 20.8 4.5 31.6 7th
8th 2.1 0.6 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 8.4 34.5 41.2 15.9 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 15.9% 6.1% 6.1% 15.8 0.2 0.8 14.9
9-9 41.2% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 1.9 39.3
8-10 34.5% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 1.0 33.5
7-11 8.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 8.3
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 16.0 96.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 15.8 19.5 80.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.3%
Lose Out 3.2%