Western Carolina
Southern
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.6#296
Expected Predictive Rating-1.5#196
Pace73.6#74
Improvement-1.7#290

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#221
First Shot-2.6#248
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#123
Layup/Dunks-8.5#353
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#273
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.9#10
Freethrows-1.1#249
Improvement+0.6#123

Defense
Total Defense-6.0#334
First Shot-5.5#324
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#212
Layups/Dunks-5.2#327
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#107
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#191
Freethrows-1.1#254
Improvement-2.3#328
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 4.8% 7.1% 1.7%
.500 or above in Conference 6.3% 8.0% 4.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 50.3% 46.4% 55.4%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Home) - 56.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 33 - 103 - 15
Quad 47 - 510 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 202   Bowling Green W 79-71 OT 38%     1 - 0 +3.5 -11.7 +13.8
  Nov 12, 2021 51   @ Wake Forest L 75-87 5%     1 - 1 +0.0 +1.2 -0.3
  Nov 14, 2021 172   @ East Carolina L 79-95 17%     1 - 2 -13.2 +2.5 -14.7
  Nov 19, 2021 201   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 75-91 28%     1 - 3 -17.5 -2.5 -14.3
  Nov 20, 2021 329   American W 80-79 64%     2 - 3 -10.3 +2.7 -13.1
  Nov 21, 2021 218   @ Longwood W 64-53 21%     3 - 3 +11.7 -5.2 +17.5
  Nov 27, 2021 216   @ Gardner-Webb L 59-87 21%     3 - 4 -27.0 -8.7 -19.9
  Dec 04, 2021 335   @ South Carolina Upstate W 78-73 58%     4 - 4 -4.7 +0.4 -5.0
  Dec 08, 2021 280   Tennessee Tech W 77-75 57%    
  Dec 11, 2021 255   UNC Asheville W 75-74 51%    
  Dec 20, 2021 150   @ Georgia L 70-82 13%    
  Dec 22, 2021 220   @ Charlotte L 69-77 22%    
  Dec 29, 2021 174   UNC Greensboro L 66-70 34%    
  Jan 01, 2022 131   @ East Tennessee St. L 65-78 12%    
  Jan 05, 2022 238   The Citadel L 77-78 48%    
  Jan 08, 2022 243   @ Samford L 79-85 29%    
  Jan 12, 2022 88   Chattanooga L 65-76 17%    
  Jan 15, 2022 124   Wofford L 70-78 25%    
  Jan 19, 2022 110   @ Furman L 70-84 10%    
  Jan 22, 2022 177   @ Mercer L 69-79 18%    
  Jan 26, 2022 238   @ The Citadel L 74-81 28%    
  Jan 29, 2022 243   Samford L 82-83 49%    
  Feb 02, 2022 131   East Tennessee St. L 68-75 27%    
  Feb 04, 2022 227   @ VMI L 73-80 26%    
  Feb 09, 2022 88   @ Chattanooga L 62-79 7%    
  Feb 12, 2022 124   @ Wofford L 67-81 11%    
  Feb 16, 2022 110   Furman L 73-81 23%    
  Feb 19, 2022 177   Mercer L 72-76 36%    
  Feb 23, 2022 174   @ UNC Greensboro L 63-73 18%    
  Feb 26, 2022 227   VMI L 76-77 45%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.8 0.8 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.3 1.5 0.1 9.8 7th
8th 0.2 1.9 5.3 5.9 2.1 0.2 15.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 4.4 8.4 7.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 23.8 9th
10th 1.9 6.4 10.5 10.7 6.3 1.9 0.2 37.9 10th
Total 1.9 6.5 11.6 15.3 16.6 15.0 12.2 8.9 5.8 3.2 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 43.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 13.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 9.1% 9.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.3% 4.2% 4.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 0.8% 3.7% 3.7% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
10-8 1.8% 3.0% 3.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
9-9 3.2% 0.9% 0.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2
8-10 5.8% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 5.8
7-11 8.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.8
6-12 12.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.2
5-13 15.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 15.0
4-14 16.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.6
3-15 15.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.3
2-16 11.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.6
1-17 6.5% 6.5
0-18 1.9% 1.9
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%