Western Carolina
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#263
Expected Predictive Rating-8.9#310
Pace75.5#40
Improvement+2.4#39

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#293
First Shot-5.9#328
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#100
Layup/Dunks-3.7#298
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#159
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#146
Freethrows-3.4#337
Improvement+2.8#16

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#214
First Shot-1.6#224
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#167
Layups/Dunks+3.1#82
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#62
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.1#355
Freethrows+0.8#136
Improvement-0.4#218
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.3% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 9.2% 10.9% 2.7%
.500 or above in Conference 27.5% 29.9% 18.1%
Conference Champion 1.5% 1.7% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 12.1% 10.6% 17.8%
First Four0.9% 0.8% 0.9%
First Round1.7% 1.9% 1.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina Upstate (Home) - 79.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 72 - 13
Quad 47 - 510 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 290   @ Queens L 54-67 42%     0 - 1 -16.7 -26.1 +10.8
  Nov 19, 2024 89   @ Wake Forest L 69-82 9%     0 - 2 -4.0 +3.7 -7.8
  Nov 26, 2024 61   @ Florida St. L 57-91 6%     0 - 3 -21.7 -13.0 -5.9
  Nov 30, 2024 12   @ Marquette L 62-94 2%     0 - 4 -13.6 -9.3 -0.2
  Dec 04, 2024 333   Bellarmine W 86-74 75%     1 - 4 -0.9 +4.0 -5.0
  Dec 07, 2024 343   South Carolina Upstate W 84-75 80%    
  Dec 14, 2024 193   @ UNC Asheville L 72-79 25%    
  Dec 17, 2024 4   @ Tennessee L 57-86 0.4%   
  Jan 01, 2025 119   Furman L 70-75 31%    
  Jan 04, 2025 121   Samford L 82-87 31%    
  Jan 08, 2025 142   @ Wofford L 68-78 18%    
  Jan 11, 2025 232   Mercer W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 15, 2025 346   @ VMI W 76-73 63%    
  Jan 18, 2025 160   UNC Greensboro L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 22, 2025 135   @ East Tennessee St. L 68-78 18%    
  Jan 25, 2025 325   @ The Citadel W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 29, 2025 200   Chattanooga L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 01, 2025 346   VMI W 79-70 80%    
  Feb 05, 2025 119   @ Furman L 67-78 15%    
  Feb 08, 2025 160   @ UNC Greensboro L 65-74 22%    
  Feb 12, 2025 135   East Tennessee St. L 71-75 35%    
  Feb 15, 2025 325   The Citadel W 73-67 71%    
  Feb 19, 2025 200   @ Chattanooga L 71-78 26%    
  Feb 22, 2025 121   @ Samford L 79-90 16%    
  Feb 26, 2025 142   Wofford L 71-75 37%    
  Mar 01, 2025 232   @ Mercer L 74-79 34%    
Projected Record 9 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.8 1.9 0.2 5.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.3 3.0 0.4 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.3 4.0 0.7 0.0 12.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 4.3 7.2 4.8 0.8 0.0 18.3 7th
8th 0.5 2.7 6.7 7.6 4.1 0.7 0.0 22.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.4 5.6 4.3 1.6 0.2 16.1 9th
10th 0.2 1.0 2.2 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 7.0 10th
Total 0.2 1.0 3.1 6.0 9.5 12.4 13.9 13.9 12.4 10.2 7.3 4.9 2.7 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 88.5% 0.2    0.2 0.1
14-4 64.9% 0.5    0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 31.2% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 8.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 25.5% 25.5% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.3% 23.0% 23.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.7% 14.9% 14.9% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
13-5 1.4% 13.5% 13.5% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2
12-6 2.7% 10.1% 10.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.4
11-7 4.9% 5.9% 5.9% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 4.6
10-8 7.3% 4.5% 4.5% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.0
9-9 10.2% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.8
8-10 12.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 12.2
7-11 13.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 13.8
6-12 13.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.8
5-13 12.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.4
4-14 9.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.5
3-15 6.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.0
2-16 3.1% 3.1
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%