Winthrop
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#125
Expected Predictive Rating-2.9#212
Pace72.2#106
Improvement-4.7#360

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#67
First Shot+2.8#91
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#50
Layup/Dunks-1.6#241
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#278
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#27
Freethrows+0.0#184
Improvement+1.8#60

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#263
First Shot-1.4#216
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#279
Layups/Dunks+1.3#128
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#201
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#265
Freethrows-0.6#231
Improvement-6.5#364
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.2% 34.0% 28.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.1 14.0
.500 or above 91.9% 97.8% 91.5%
.500 or above in Conference 97.3% 98.8% 97.2%
Conference Champion 36.6% 46.1% 35.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.4% 0.0% 0.4%
First Round29.0% 34.0% 28.7%
Second Round1.8% 3.5% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Away) - 6.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 33 - 24 - 7
Quad 415 - 519 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 211 Queens W 81-74 71%     1 - 0 +3.7 -1.1 +4.6
  Fri, Nov 7 88 @George Mason L 90-96 25%     1 - 1 +3.3 +13.8 -10.0
  Tue, Nov 11 230 @Coastal Carolina L 66-72 64%     1 - 2 -7.2 -5.6 -1.5
  Sat, Nov 15 174 Mercer W 105-69 73%     2 - 2 +31.9 +15.4 +11.6
  Tue, Nov 18 23 @Arkansas L 83-84 8%     2 - 3 +17.2 +15.9 +1.3
  Sun, Nov 23 324 @Jackson St. W 80-62 81%     3 - 3 +11.2 +12.6 +0.2
  Tue, Nov 25 25 @Nebraska L 73-80 8%     3 - 4 +11.1 +9.6 +1.4
  Sat, Nov 29 358 South Carolina St. W 101-79 96%     4 - 4 +4.1 +15.2 -12.1
  Tue, Dec 2 206 @LIU Brooklyn W 94-92 OT 59%     5 - 4 +2.1 +13.1 -11.1
  Sat, Dec 6 230 Coastal Carolina L 84-88 82%     5 - 5 -11.2 +11.0 -22.3
  Thu, Dec 18 333 @North Dakota L 88-90 82%     5 - 6 -9.4 +13.4 -22.8
  Sun, Dec 28 24 @Texas Tech L 73-89 7%    
  Wed, Dec 31 298 @Longwood W 84-77 74%    
  Sat, Jan 3 362 Gardner-Webb W 93-72 98%    
  Wed, Jan 7 239 Charleston Southern W 87-77 82%    
  Sat, Jan 10 264 @South Carolina Upstate W 81-76 68%    
  Wed, Jan 14 101 High Point W 85-84 51%    
  Sat, Jan 17 232 @UNC Asheville W 80-76 63%    
  Wed, Jan 21 261 Radford W 92-81 84%    
  Sat, Jan 24 286 @Presbyterian W 76-70 71%    
  Sat, Jan 31 232 UNC Asheville W 83-73 81%    
  Wed, Feb 4 261 @Radford W 89-84 67%    
  Sat, Feb 7 298 Longwood W 87-74 88%    
  Thu, Feb 12 362 @Gardner-Webb W 90-75 91%    
  Thu, Feb 19 264 South Carolina Upstate W 84-73 84%    
  Sat, Feb 21 101 @High Point L 82-88 30%    
  Thu, Feb 26 239 @Charleston Southern W 84-80 64%    
  Sat, Feb 28 286 Presbyterian W 79-67 86%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 5.2 10.3 11.4 6.7 1.7 36.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 5.3 11.8 13.1 8.3 2.1 41.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.6 5.1 2.8 0.6 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 2.1 0.7 0.1 4.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.8 7.0 11.3 15.9 18.9 18.6 13.4 6.7 1.7 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
15-1 100.0% 6.7    6.2 0.6
14-2 84.7% 11.4    8.5 2.8 0.0
13-3 55.5% 10.3    5.9 4.3 0.2
12-4 27.3% 5.2    2.0 2.7 0.5 0.0
11-5 7.9% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0
10-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 36.6% 36.6 24.5 10.9 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.7% 55.8% 55.8% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.7
15-1 6.7% 47.4% 47.4% 13.0 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.7 0.0 3.5
14-2 13.4% 41.0% 41.0% 13.5 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.4 0.3 0.0 7.9
13-3 18.6% 35.3% 35.3% 13.8 0.1 1.9 3.5 1.0 0.0 12.0
12-4 18.9% 28.5% 28.5% 14.2 0.0 0.8 2.8 1.7 0.1 13.5
11-5 15.9% 23.3% 23.3% 14.5 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.6 0.2 12.2
10-6 11.3% 19.5% 19.5% 14.9 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.3 9.1
9-7 7.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.3 0.1 0.7 0.3 6.0
8-8 3.8% 10.6% 10.6% 15.8 0.1 0.3 3.4
7-9 1.7% 10.6% 10.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 1.5
6-10 0.7% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-11 0.2% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-12 0.1% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 29.2% 29.2% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 7.5 11.7 6.7 1.5 70.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.3 9.4 59.4 28.1 3.1