Winthrop
Big South
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#179
Expected Predictive Rating-0.8#181
Pace76.8#27
Improvement+0.5#152

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#211
First Shot-1.7#227
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#164
Layup/Dunks+2.6#93
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#305
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#296
Freethrows+1.6#90
Improvement+1.8#54

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#156
First Shot+1.8#122
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#276
Layups/Dunks+1.8#114
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#46
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#261
Freethrows+0.1#189
Improvement-1.3#285
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.4% 16.4% 11.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 76.2% 80.8% 60.2%
.500 or above in Conference 76.6% 78.7% 69.6%
Conference Champion 20.4% 21.9% 15.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 2.1% 3.6%
First Four0.9% 0.7% 1.5%
First Round15.0% 16.1% 11.2%
Second Round0.8% 0.8% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coastal Carolina (Home) - 77.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 9
Quad 413 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 233   Arkansas Little Rock W 82-67 71%     1 - 0 +8.1 -0.8 +7.3
  Nov 11, 2024 129   @ Virginia Tech L 52-58 29%     1 - 1 -1.3 -12.0 +10.1
  Nov 15, 2024 219   William & Mary W 86-85 69%     2 - 1 -5.1 -2.5 -2.7
  Nov 16, 2024 235   Georgia Southern L 87-89 72%     2 - 2 -9.0 -5.4 -3.2
  Nov 17, 2024 281   NC Central W 77-75 79%     3 - 2 -7.4 -1.1 -6.3
  Nov 22, 2024 43   @ Louisville L 61-76 9%     3 - 3 -1.0 -11.0 +11.6
  Nov 25, 2024 342   LIU Brooklyn W 87-65 89%     4 - 3 +7.5 +5.6 +1.3
  Dec 03, 2024 290   @ Queens W 86-78 60%     5 - 3 +4.3 +4.5 -0.9
  Dec 07, 2024 272   Coastal Carolina W 73-65 78%    
  Dec 17, 2024 61   @ Florida St. L 71-84 11%    
  Dec 21, 2024 232   Mercer W 81-75 70%    
  Dec 29, 2024 39   @ Indiana L 70-86 7%    
  Jan 02, 2025 343   South Carolina Upstate W 88-74 89%    
  Jan 04, 2025 189   @ Radford L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 08, 2025 221   @ Gardner-Webb L 76-77 48%    
  Jan 11, 2025 202   Longwood W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 15, 2025 276   Charleston Southern W 79-71 78%    
  Jan 18, 2025 193   @ UNC Asheville L 75-78 40%    
  Jan 25, 2025 141   @ High Point L 75-80 33%    
  Jan 29, 2025 248   Presbyterian W 77-70 72%    
  Feb 01, 2025 221   Gardner-Webb W 79-74 68%    
  Feb 05, 2025 276   @ Charleston Southern W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 343   @ South Carolina Upstate W 85-77 75%    
  Feb 12, 2025 189   Radford W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 15, 2025 141   High Point W 78-77 53%    
  Feb 19, 2025 248   @ Presbyterian W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 26, 2025 202   @ Longwood L 74-76 43%    
  Mar 01, 2025 193   UNC Asheville W 78-75 62%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.6 6.4 5.5 2.9 1.1 0.2 20.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 5.3 7.4 3.6 0.7 0.1 18.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 5.4 6.9 2.2 0.2 15.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.4 6.6 1.7 0.2 13.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.4 6.0 1.8 0.1 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.6 1.8 0.1 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.2 1.5 0.1 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.6 0.8 0.1 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.8 6.6 10.1 13.0 14.8 14.7 13.4 10.3 6.3 3.0 1.1 0.2 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
14-2 97.7% 2.9    2.7 0.2
13-3 88.1% 5.5    4.3 1.2 0.0
12-4 62.5% 6.4    3.3 2.6 0.4 0.0
11-5 26.6% 3.6    0.9 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
10-6 4.9% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 20.4% 20.4 12.5 5.8 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 54.7% 54.7% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 1.1% 44.5% 44.5% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
14-2 3.0% 37.0% 37.0% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.9
13-3 6.3% 32.8% 32.8% 13.6 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 4.2
12-4 10.3% 25.7% 25.7% 14.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.0 7.6
11-5 13.4% 19.5% 19.5% 14.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.2 10.8
10-6 14.7% 16.4% 16.4% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.3 12.3
9-7 14.8% 11.2% 11.2% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 13.1
8-8 13.0% 9.1% 9.1% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 11.8
7-9 10.1% 6.9% 6.9% 15.7 0.2 0.5 9.4
6-10 6.6% 4.5% 4.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 6.3
5-11 3.8% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 3.7
4-12 1.8% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 1.8
3-13 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.4% 15.4% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.6 2.5 4.6 5.3 2.3 84.6 0.0%