Winthrop
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.5 136
Expected Predictive Rating +2.2 125
Pace 71.8 95
Improvement -3.7 318

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 115 C- B- B- B+ B
Defense C 188 C C- C- D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 181 D 51% 323 -2.5 274
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 333 D+ 35% 282 -3.4 333
Three Pointers 48% 40 C 34% 180 +3.9 57
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.0 60 D+ -2.9 283
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 235
Second Chance B- 33.2% 96 C+ 1.06 130 B- 0.35 95
Turnovers B- 15.2% 78
Freethrows B+ 0.36 21 B- 74% 114 B+ 0.27 23
Total Offense C+ +2.0 115

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 53% 106 C 11.1% 185
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 151 C+ 4.7% 164
Three Pointers C- 81% 248 C- 1.1% 247
Total B 61% 66 C+ 5.4% 167

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 246 C 57% 161 -1.4 123
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 232 F+ 44% 349 +0.5 222
Three Pointers 45% 70 C+ 33% 127 +1.2 245
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 190 C +0.2 184
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 186
Second Chance C+ 29.6% 154 D+ 1.10 280 C- 0.32 223
Turnovers C- 16.4% 200
Freethrows D+ 0.33 257 D+ 74% 277 D+ 0.24 275
Total Defense C -0.6 188

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 87 C- 9.5% 228
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 19% 60 D 2.5% 311
Three Pointers B- 81% 97 C- 0.7% 205
Total B- 52% 97 D+ 4.2% 293

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.6 101 17.1 147
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 221 0.15 100
Improvement -4.3 #346 +0.6 #148

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 160 137 117
Conference Record 13 - 3 14 - 2 15 - 1
Conference Finish 2 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24% 29% 22%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.1 13.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 29% 96% 10%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round24% 29% 22%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: High Point (Away) - 22.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 15 - 6
Quad 416 - 420 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 204 Queens W 81 - 74 66% +2  72% 1 - 0 C+ +4 D+ -3 F A B- A- +7 A F+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 105 @George Mason L 90 - 96 28% -0  47% 1 - 1 C +1 A- +10 B F A+ F+ -8 F B- B
 Tue, Nov 11 238 @Coastal Carolina L 66 - 72 61% -7  1% 1 - 2 D+ -7 F+ -9 D- F+ B- C+ +2 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 175 Mercer W 105 - 69 70% +16  94% 2 - 2 A+ +32 A +12 B+ B A- A+ +16 A B A+
 Tue, Nov 18 17 @Arkansas L 83 - 84 4% -1  37% 2 - 3 A +21 A +14 A- A+ A- A- +7 A D+ C+
 Sun, Nov 23 332 @Jackson St. W 80 - 62 82% +8  80% 3 - 3 B +10 B +7 C+ B- B+ B +5 D- B B-
 Tue, Nov 25 13 @Nebraska L 73 - 80 4% -2  28% 3 - 4 A- +15 A +12 A B A B- +3 A B F
 Sat, Nov 29 357 South Carolina St. W 101 - 79 96% +14  91% 4 - 4 C+ +4 A +14 B+ A+ D F -11 F F+ D+
 Tue, Dec 2 214 @LIU Brooklyn W 94 - 92 OT 55% +4  71% 5 - 4 C+ +2 A +13 D- A+ A F -11 F+ F D
 Sat, Dec 6 238 Coastal Carolina L 84 - 88 80% +1  51% 5 - 5 D -11 B+ +8 D+ A+ C- F -19 F F+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 295 @North Dakota L 88 - 90 72% +2  48% 5 - 6 D+ -7 B+ +9 B B+ A- F -16 D+ F F
 Sun, Dec 28 18 @Texas Tech L 57 - 87 4% -26  0% 5 - 7 D -9 F+ -9 F D F+ C+ +1 C C A
 Wed, Dec 31 270 @Longwood L 70 - 82 67% -7  2% 5 - 8 0 - 1 F+ -15 D+ -3 F C+ A+ F -13 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 363 Gardner-Webb W 88 - 77 97% -5  24% 6 - 8 1 - 1 D -10 B- +5 C+ F B+ F -15 F B+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 258 Charleston Southern W 81 - 77 83% -2  26% 7 - 8 2 - 1 C- -4 D -6 F+ C+ C- C+ +1 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 302 @South Carolina Upstate W 71 - 50 73% +15  89% 8 - 8 3 - 1 A- +16 C- -1 C- C- D A+ +18 A+ C B+
 Wed, Jan 14 89 High Point W 92 - 75 43% +15  93% 9 - 8 4 - 1 A +20 A+ +15 B A+ A+ B+ +5 B- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 226 @UNC Asheville W 69 - 67 58% +6  91% 10 - 8 5 - 1 C +1 D -6 F C- F A- +7 A+ B D-
 Wed, Jan 21 234 Radford W 76 - 75 79% -2  23% 11 - 8 6 - 1 D+ -6 D+ -3 B+ D- C+ D+ -3 F B A+
 Sat, Jan 24 272 @Presbyterian W 82 - 72 68% +5  92% 12 - 8 7 - 1 B- +7 B- +4 F B+ A+ B- +2 B+ B+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 226 UNC Asheville W 84 - 71 78% +7  98% 13 - 8 8 - 1 B- +6 A +13 B+ A- D D -6 C A F
 Wed, Feb 4 234 @Radford W 80 - 78 60% +3  65% 14 - 8 9 - 1 C +1 C +1 B- F B+ C -0 C C+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 270 Longwood W 79 - 74 84% +2  65% 15 - 8 10 - 1 C- -4 D- -7 F D+ C B- +2 B+ B F
 Thu, Feb 12 363 @Gardner-Webb W 103 - 85 93% +13  93% 16 - 8 11 - 1 C+ +3 A- +11 B+ A C- F -10 F D+ C+
 Thu, Feb 19 302 South Carolina Upstate W 68 - 64 88% +2  57% 17 - 8 12 - 1 D+ -7 D- -8 F A+ F C+ +1 A C+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 89 @High Point L 78 - 86 23%
 Thu, Feb 26 258 @Charleston Southern W 83 - 79 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 272 Presbyterian W 78 - 67 84%
Totals 19 - 9 14 - 2 +1 C+ +2 C D+ B C -1 C B- B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ D D+ C D+ 38% 23% 48% B C- B- C+ B- B- B+ B- B+ C C F+ C+ C 37% 19% 45% C C C+ D+ C- C- D+ D+ D+
1.12 51% 35% 34% -3 +1 0.98 33% 1.1 .35 15% .36 74% .27 1.09 57% 44% 33% 0 0 1.03 30% 1.1 .32 16% .33 74% .27
Nov
3		 Queens D+ F F F+ F 33% 22% 45% D F B A A B- A+ A A+ A- C F A+ A 35% 18% 47% B- A F C F+ A+ C+ F D+
1.12 47% 27% 30% -8 0 0.84 39% 1.3 .49 14% .50 81% .40 1.03 61% 56% 21% -5 0 0.92 38% 1.1 .41 24% .29 88% .25
Nov
7		 George Mason A- A+ D B B+ 19% 22% 59% D B D+ F F A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ F B F F 36% 13% 51% D F F A+ B- B F C F
1.17 73% 31% 37% +4 -2 1.07 24% 0.2 .04 8% .41 86% .35 1.25 76% 33% 42% +12 +1 1.28 44% 0.6 .28 18% .69 72% .50
Nov
11		 Coastal Carolina F+ F C D- F 44% 19% 37% A D- F B+ F+ B- A- F C- C+ A A F F+ 35% 15% 50% F F D F F A+ F A+ D
0.92 42% 40% 30% -9 +1 0.85 14% 1.2 .17 11% .36 57% .20 1.01 44% 29% 48% +4 0 1.11 29% 1.3 .39 24% .39 57% .22
Nov
15		 Mercer A C+ B+ A+ B+ 42% 19% 39% C+ B+ C+ A- B A- A+ D A+ A+ C+ F A+ A- 27% 29% 43% A A A+ F B A+ F A+ C-
1.30 58% 45% 45% +8 0 1.19 34% 1.2 .39 14% .53 70% .37 0.85 57% 53% 18% -6 -2 0.86 19% 1.4 .27 23% .42 62% .26
Nov
18		 Arkansas A B F A+ A 31% 19% 51% C A- D A+ A+ A- F C- F A- F A+ C A- 37% 31% 33% A A A+ F D+ C+ D F F
1.17 61% 0% 43% +1 0 1.03 24% 2.3 .53 14% .10 67% .07 1.18 79% 19% 35% +2 -1 1.04 24% 2.0 .48 13% .35 91% .32
Nov
23		 Jackson St. B B- F A- C+ 37% 11% 52% C+ C+ D+ A B- B+ F A+ F B C- F C- F 18% 33% 49% A D- B- B+ B B- A+ A+ A+
1.24 65% 17% 39% +4 +1 1.13 33% 1.3 .42 12% .18 90% .16 0.96 56% 50% 33% +3 -3 1.02 24% 0.9 .21 20% .16 63% .10
Nov
25		 Nebraska A A+ C+ B+ A+ 7% 29% 64% D A A+ D- B A C F+ C- B- C- C- B A- 25% 18% 57% A A B- B+ B F A+ F A-
1.06 100% 38% 36% +5 -3 1.05 38% 0.7 .27 16% .22 62% .14 1.16 67% 36% 32% 0 -1 1.02 24% 1.0 .24 7% .16 90% .14
Nov
29		 South Carolina St. A A- A- B B+ 45% 7% 48% B- B+ A A+ A+ D F A+ F F C+ D- F F 39% 30% 31% F+ F C F F+ D+ A+ D+ A
1.38 72% 50% 37% +9 +2 1.25 48% 1.7 .84 19% .25 87% .22 1.08 52% 44% 47% +6 -1 1.11 29% 1.3 .37 19% .20 67% .13
Dec
2		 LIU Brooklyn A D+ F F F 56% 12% 32% B+ D- B+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ F D- C- F F 43% 31% 26% B+ F+ C- F F D F F F
1.23 53% 14% 28% -9 +2 0.89 40% 1.4 .55 13% .44 83% .36 1.21 65% 41% 43% +7 -1 1.15 36% 1.3 .45 18% .40 80% .32
Dec
6		 Coastal Carolina B+ C+ F F+ D 29% 21% 50% B D+ A+ C+ A+ C- A+ C- A+ F A F F F 31% 25% 44% D+ F C+ F F+ F F D- F
1.20 57% 30% 29% -6 -1 0.90 44% 1.0 .46 13% .56 71% .40 1.26 44% 54% 43% +6 -1 1.12 24% 1.4 .32 11% .42 77% .32
Dec
18		 North Dakota B+ D- A+ A+ B 43% 8% 50% B- B F+ A+ B+ A- A+ D A+ F A+ F F D+ 41% 4% 55% F+ D+ F F F F F D+ F
1.27 53% 67% 45% +8 +2 1.23 26% 1.9 .48 16% .74 67% .50 1.30 38% 50% 39% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.4 .53 10% .51 72% .37
Dec
28		 Texas Tech F+ F A+ F F 35% 21% 44% A- F A F D F+ A+ C- A+ C+ B F D+ C+ 33% 14% 53% D- C B- D+ C A F F F
0.81 35% 70% 14% -14 0 0.73 36% 0.4 .16 21% .41 65% .27 1.23 56% 71% 38% +8 0 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 20% .46 88% .41
Dec
31		 Longwood D+ F F F F 48% 8% 44% B+ F A F+ C+ A+ A+ A A+ F C- B- F F 52% 13% 35% F F F F F C- F+ C+ D-
1.04 39% 25% 24% -17 +2 0.73 39% 0.8 .30 12% .54 78% .42 1.21 60% 33% 41% +4 +2 1.15 44% 1.1 .50 19% .38 71% .27
Jan
3		 Gardner-Webb B- A+ F D- C 46% 13% 41% B C+ A F F B+ A+ A A+ F C- F F+ F 27% 17% 56% B+ F A+ D+ B+ F D- A+ C
1.30 86% 0% 32% +6 +1 1.17 47% 0.5 .24 12% .54 81% .44 1.14 57% 67% 38% +8 0 1.17 14% 1.0 .14 10% .31 58% .18
Jan
7		 Charleston Southern D D F F F 54% 12% 34% A+ F+ B+ D- C+ C- A+ F B C+ A- F A+ A+ 43% 10% 47% D+ A+ C- F F F F A+ D+
1.05 50% 29% 20% -13 +2 0.81 36% 0.9 .32 13% .46 61% .28 1.00 48% 50% 19% -14 +2 0.78 30% 1.5 .45 12% .34 57% .19
Jan
10		 South Carolina Upstate C- F+ F B+ D+ 42% 6% 52% B+ C- A+ F C- D B F C- A+ A A+ A+ A+ 55% 22% 22% D- A+ A+ F C B+ B- D+ C+
1.06 48% 0% 38% -3 +2 1.00 43% 0.8 .33 18% .35 58% .20 0.75 44% 0% 18% -21 +1 0.61 18% 1.4 .26 21% .26 71% .19
Jan
14		 High Point A+ B- D B- B- 44% 6% 50% A- B C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ B+ F+ B- A B- 35% 12% 53% B- B- C A+ A+ C+ F B F
1.31 64% 33% 36% +4 +2 1.14 33% 1.5 .52 13% .54 67% .36 1.06 71% 33% 27% -2 +1 1.00 32% 0.5 .15 14% .46 71% .33
Jan
17		 UNC Asheville D F A+ B- F 43% 2% 54% A F C+ D C- F A+ A+ A+ A- A+ F A+ A+ 23% 35% 42% C A+ C- A B D- F D+ F
0.98 25% 100% 36% -11 +3 0.85 32% 0.8 .27 21% .54 80% .44 0.96 42% 50% 18% -10 -3 0.77 30% 0.8 .23 14% .42 72% .30
Jan
21		 Radford D+ F C+ A+ B 44% 10% 46% B B+ F+ C D- C+ C F D D+ D- F F F 48% 5% 48% F F A- C B A+ F C- F
1.11 48% 40% 50% +7 +2 1.19 24% 1.1 .27 17% .34 63% .21 1.09 65% 50% 40% +8 +3 1.24 23% 1.0 .23 28% .48 75% .36
Jan
24		 Presbyterian B- F+ B- F F 55% 13% 32% B+ F B+ B- B+ A+ A+ B A+ B- A+ F A+ B 30% 33% 37% A- B+ B+ B B+ C F F F
1.15 48% 43% 24% -10 +2 0.87 37% 1.1 .39 7% .53 71% .38 1.01 43% 53% 24% -5 -2 0.87 27% 0.9 .24 20% .44 88% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 UNC Asheville A F A A+ B 33% 4% 62% B B+ B+ A- A- D A+ A+ A+ D D+ F A+ C 28% 32% 40% D+ C B- A+ A F F F F
1.30 47% 50% 43% +5 +2 1.16 38% 1.1 .41 19% .53 89% .47 1.09 62% 53% 26% +1 -2 1.00 27% 0.7 .18 12% .42 83% .35
Feb
4		 Radford C C+ A+ C C+ 43% 13% 43% B- B- D- F F B+ C+ D- C- C C C C+ C 37% 14% 49% C- C F A+ C+ C- A- D B+
1.12 61% 57% 35% +4 +1 1.13 26% 0.7 .17 15% .35 67% .23 1.09 57% 38% 32% -2 +1 1.00 37% 0.7 .27 17% .29 76% .22
Feb
7		 Longwood D- B- F F F 32% 11% 57% C F F A+ D+ C A+ A+ A+ B- F B A+ B 25% 31% 43% A+ B+ B+ C+ B F F A+ F
1.02 67% 20% 22% -9 +1 0.85 14% 1.6 .22 18% .63 88% .55 0.96 69% 31% 23% -7 -2 0.84 27% 0.9 .24 16% .54 63% .34
Feb
12		 Gardner-Webb A- F+ A+ A+ B 44% 2% 55% A B+ B+ A A C- A+ C+ A+ F D+ D- F F 49% 9% 42% F+ F C F D+ C+ D- B+ D+
1.34 54% 100% 47% +10 +3 1.27 42% 1.3 .53 16% .43 75% .32 1.11 59% 40% 43% +7 +2 1.20 23% 1.1 .26 21% .31 63% .20
Feb
19		 South Carolina Upstate D- F A+ F F 50% 5% 45% A F B+ A+ A+ F A+ F A C+ A+ F A+ A 31% 12% 57% D+ A A- F+ C+ F F F F
1.01 33% 100% 26% -15 +3 0.79 37% 1.5 .55 21% .47 60% .28 0.95 40% 50% 25% -12 +1 0.80 23% 1.1 .25 13% .38 77% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.3 16.0 12.9 29.2 1st
2nd 4.8 31.7 34.3 70.8 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 4.8 32.0 50.2 12.9 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 12.9    12.9
14-2 31.8% 16.0    1.7 14.2
13-3 1.0% 0.3    0.3
12-4 0.0%
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total 29.2% 29.2 14.7 14.6



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 12.9% 31.1% 31.1% 12.9 0.0 0.8 2.7 0.5 0.0 8.9
14-2 50.2% 24.5% 24.5% 13.4 0.6 6.3 5.0 0.5 0.0 37.9
13-3 32.0% 20.1% 20.1% 13.7 0.1 2.3 3.4 0.6 0.0 25.6
12-4 4.8% 17.0% 17.0% 14.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 4.0
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 23.6% 23.6% 0.0% 13.5 76.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.0% 100.0% 12.9 0.1 19.8 67.0 12.9 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.5%
Lose Out 1.4%