Winthrop
Big South
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#244
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#253
Pace67.4#200
Improvement+0.8#93

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#130
First Shot+2.2#99
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#244
Layup/Dunks-3.6#316
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#242
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#31
Freethrows+2.4#33
Improvement+0.1#179

Defense
Total Defense-5.7#328
First Shot-4.0#304
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#324
Layups/Dunks-1.9#259
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#258
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#296
Freethrows+1.7#61
Improvement+0.7#76
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.8% 6.1% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 4.8% 13.9% 1.7%
.500 or above in Conference 74.9% 92.5% 69.0%
Conference Champion 0.3% 1.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.2% 4.6% 4.1%
First Round2.7% 4.0% 2.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Radford (Away) - 25.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 11
Quad 410 - 612 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 45   @ Penn St. L 68-93 6%     0 - 1 -11.8 -0.2 -11.4
  Nov 12, 2022 121   Middle Tennessee W 76-68 34%     1 - 1 +7.9 -1.7 +9.0
  Nov 15, 2022 27   @ Auburn L 65-89 4%     1 - 2 -8.4 +4.6 -14.4
  Nov 19, 2022 228   @ Mercer L 68-77 35%     1 - 3 -9.4 +0.6 -10.7
  Nov 22, 2022 111   Southern Miss L 52-77 23%     1 - 4 -21.5 -16.2 -6.6
  Nov 23, 2022 302   Eastern Michigan W 101-87 63%     2 - 4 +6.2 +12.5 -7.6
  Dec 03, 2022 246   Coastal Carolina L 81-86 61%     2 - 5 -12.1 -0.7 -11.2
  Dec 06, 2022 355   South Carolina St. W 81-67 88%     3 - 5 -3.1 -3.7 +0.4
  Dec 10, 2022 87   @ Furman L 67-82 12%     3 - 6 -6.5 -2.4 -4.6
  Dec 17, 2022 106   @ LSU L 81-89 15%     3 - 7 -1.4 +13.6 -15.2
  Dec 21, 2022 126   @ Duquesne L 57-74 19%     3 - 8 -11.9 -9.2 -4.4
  Dec 29, 2022 306   @ South Carolina Upstate L 62-70 54%     3 - 9 0 - 1 -13.3 -12.4 -0.8
  Dec 31, 2022 188   UNC Asheville W 62-60 48%     4 - 9 1 - 1 -1.9 -1.9 +0.4
  Jan 04, 2023 330   Presbyterian W 82-72 79%     5 - 9 2 - 1 -2.7 +14.6 -15.9
  Jan 07, 2023 181   @ Longwood L 71-85 26%     5 - 10 2 - 2 -11.7 -0.6 -11.0
  Jan 11, 2023 178   Radford L 52-66 45%     5 - 11 2 - 3 -17.0 -11.5 -8.1
  Jan 14, 2023 255   @ Campbell W 78-74 42%     6 - 11 3 - 3 +1.9 +12.6 -10.2
  Jan 18, 2023 304   @ High Point L 66-71 53%     6 - 12 3 - 4 -10.0 -12.9 +3.2
  Jan 21, 2023 192   Gardner-Webb L 61-63 49%     6 - 13 3 - 5 -5.9 -3.2 -2.9
  Jan 25, 2023 280   Charleston Southern W 76-64 68%     7 - 13 4 - 5 +3.0 +9.6 -4.1
  Jan 28, 2023 330   @ Presbyterian W 76-58 61%     8 - 13 5 - 5 +10.7 +5.5 +6.6
  Feb 01, 2023 181   Longwood W 76-74 46%     9 - 13 6 - 5 -1.2 +8.9 -9.9
  Feb 04, 2023 178   @ Radford L 66-73 25%    
  Feb 08, 2023 188   @ UNC Asheville L 70-76 28%    
  Feb 11, 2023 306   South Carolina Upstate W 75-69 74%    
  Feb 15, 2023 192   @ Gardner-Webb L 65-71 28%    
  Feb 18, 2023 280   @ Charleston Southern L 76-77 46%    
  Feb 22, 2023 255   Campbell W 71-68 63%    
  Feb 25, 2023 304   High Point W 82-76 73%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1st
2nd 0.3 1.3 0.3 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.5 2.2 0.1 7.8 3rd
4th 0.0 2.3 10.5 7.6 0.6 20.9 4th
5th 0.1 5.6 21.4 14.9 2.0 0.0 44.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 9.9 5.2 0.3 17.3 6th
7th 0.2 3.2 2.6 0.2 6.2 7th
8th 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.9 6.0 18.3 29.1 26.6 14.4 4.2 0.6 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 29.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.6% 12.9% 12.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-6 4.2% 8.5% 8.5% 15.8 0.1 0.3 3.8
11-7 14.4% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1 13.3
10-8 26.6% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.0 1.5 25.1
9-9 29.1% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 1.1 28.0
8-10 18.3% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.5 17.8
7-11 6.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.2 5.9
6-12 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.8
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.7 95.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 12.9% 15.3 0.7 7.5 4.7
Lose Out 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.9