Winthrop
Big South
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#157
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#163
Pace80.5#10
Improvement-0.1#185

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#117
First Shot+4.9#47
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#335
Layup/Dunks+2.6#85
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#283
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#38
Freethrows-1.3#261
Improvement-0.4#220

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#200
First Shot-3.5#286
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#44
Layups/Dunks-2.0#257
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#49
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#272
Freethrows-1.4#278
Improvement+0.3#149
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.7% 28.6% 22.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 88.6% 94.9% 82.5%
.500 or above in Conference 95.9% 97.2% 94.5%
Conference Champion 39.4% 44.2% 34.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four2.8% 2.0% 3.7%
First Round24.5% 27.8% 21.3%
Second Round1.7% 2.3% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Home) - 49.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 33 - 44 - 7
Quad 414 - 317 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 177   Mercer W 88-85 OT 66%     1 - 0 -0.5 -0.2 -0.7
  Nov 16, 2021 190   @ Middle Tennessee L 65-76 45%     1 - 1 -9.0 -8.9 +0.4
  Nov 20, 2021 86   @ Vanderbilt L 63-77 21%     1 - 2 -5.0 -7.6 +3.2
  Nov 22, 2021 49   @ Washington St. L 86-92 14%     1 - 3 +6.3 +14.1 -7.3
  Nov 27, 2021 148   @ Washington W 82-74 36%     2 - 3 +12.4 +2.4 +9.0
  Dec 01, 2021 254   Hartford W 82-75 79%     3 - 3 -0.8 +2.5 -3.5
  Dec 04, 2021 173   @ Coastal Carolina L 64-74 42%     3 - 4 -7.2 -6.7 -0.7
  Dec 07, 2021 110   Furman L 79-80 49%    
  Dec 15, 2021 289   @ Elon W 84-79 67%    
  Dec 20, 2021 48   Mississippi St. L 71-80 21%    
  Jan 05, 2022 263   @ High Point W 74-71 61%    
  Jan 08, 2022 171   Campbell W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 12, 2022 255   UNC Asheville W 81-72 78%    
  Jan 15, 2022 342   @ Charleston Southern W 87-76 84%    
  Jan 19, 2022 276   @ Presbyterian W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 22, 2022 216   Gardner-Webb W 77-71 70%    
  Jan 26, 2022 335   @ South Carolina Upstate W 83-73 82%    
  Jan 29, 2022 218   @ Longwood L 73-74 50%    
  Feb 02, 2022 284   N.C. A&T W 82-72 82%    
  Feb 05, 2022 333   @ Hampton W 80-70 81%    
  Feb 09, 2022 253   Radford W 76-68 77%    
  Feb 12, 2022 276   Presbyterian W 76-66 81%    
  Feb 16, 2022 216   @ Gardner-Webb L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 19, 2022 255   @ UNC Asheville W 78-75 59%    
  Feb 23, 2022 335   South Carolina Upstate W 86-70 93%    
  Feb 26, 2022 342   Charleston Southern W 90-73 93%    
Projected Record 16 - 10 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 5.8 11.6 11.7 6.9 2.1 39.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 5.9 8.8 5.1 1.0 0.1 21.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.1 6.3 2.7 0.3 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.2 2.4 4.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.4 1.6 0.1 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.5 0.1 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.4 4.7 8.0 11.7 15.3 17.4 17.0 12.6 7.0 2.1 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 2.1    2.1
15-1 99.1% 6.9    6.6 0.4
14-2 92.4% 11.7    9.4 2.2 0.1
13-3 68.4% 11.6    6.6 4.3 0.7 0.0
12-4 33.5% 5.8    1.6 2.6 1.3 0.3 0.0
11-5 7.6% 1.2    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1
10-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 39.4% 39.4 26.4 9.8 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.1% 49.8% 49.8% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.0
15-1 7.0% 44.6% 44.6% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 0.7 0.0 3.9
14-2 12.6% 39.2% 39.2% 14.4 0.0 0.6 2.0 2.0 0.3 7.7
13-3 17.0% 32.6% 32.6% 14.9 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.1 1.1 11.5
12-4 17.4% 26.2% 26.2% 15.2 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.7 12.8
11-5 15.3% 20.2% 20.2% 15.6 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.9 12.2
10-6 11.7% 15.7% 15.7% 15.8 0.0 0.4 1.4 9.9
9-7 8.0% 12.6% 12.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 7.0
8-8 4.7% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4 4.3
7-9 2.4% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.3
6-10 1.1% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
5-11 0.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-12 0.2% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 25.7% 25.7% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.0 5.6 9.8 7.8 74.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.7 1.0 3.1 3.1 6.1 21.4 33.7 31.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%