Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.6 #225
Expected Predictive Rating -6.9 #275
Pace 68.6 #182
Improvement -2.5 #287

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #233 C C D D+ B-
Defense #225 C- C B- F+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #315 1.17 #160 -2.9 #282
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #326 0.74 #207 -3.0 #323
Three Pointers 54% #7 0.99 #223 +5.9 #25
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #179 -0.1 #178
Freethrows 0.28 #281 71% #224 0.20 #273
Second Chance 31.4% #157 1.02 #183 0.32 #160
Turnovers 19.6% #325
Total Offense -2.3 #233

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #61 1.26 #311 -4.9 #336
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #78 0.66 #34 +0.0 #192
Three Pointers 33% #352 1.09 #284 +2.7 #73
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #253 -2.2 #253
Freethrows 0.38 #334 75% #315 0.28 #348
Second Chance 32.5% #268 0.95 #85 0.31 #173
Turnovers 19.1% #68
Total Defense -1.3 #225

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #108 -0.2% #150
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.4% #192 4.5% #268
Possession Length 18.2 #273 16.6 #70
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #173 0.24 #346
Improvement +0.1 #170 -2.6 #314

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 5.6% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.0 15.6
.500 or above 14.1% 25.0% 7.5%
.500 or above in Conference 14.0% 27.0% 6.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 0.7% 3.6%
First Four1.5% 1.0% 1.8%
First Round3.8% 5.2% 2.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Purdue Fort Wayne (Away) - 37.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 20 - 31 - 3
Quad 32 - 73 - 10
Quad 410 - 713 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 93 @Pittsburgh L 59 - 74 12% -3  0 - 1 -6 -6 C+ F C- -1 B F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 65 @Grand Canyon W 90 - 81 8% +3  1 - 1 +21 +23 A+ A A+ -3 B- F C+
 Sat, Nov 15 142 @St. Bonaventure L 80 - 84 23% -1  1 - 2 +0 +7 C- A+ C- -7 F C A-
 Wed, Nov 19 159 @Toledo L 75 - 92 27% -8  1 - 3 -14 -4 C B F -9 F+ C C+
 Sun, Nov 23 312 UNC Greensboro L 62 - 68 70% +9  1 - 4 -15 -20 F F F +5 C- A- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 260 Georgia Southern W 67 - 61 58% +4  2 - 4 +0 -8 C- B- F +9 B- A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 28 355 Chicago St. W 87 - 64 89% +21  3 - 4 +6 +5 A D- C+ +0 B C+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 145 Wright St. W 69 - 68 44% +0  4 - 4 1 - 0 -1 -5 D+ A+ F +4 C- A- B
 Sat, Dec 6 340 @IU Indianapolis W 78 - 55 68% +13  5 - 4 2 - 0 +14 +3 B- D+ D- +13 A+ A+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 220 @Robert Morris L 77 - 80 OT 37% +3  5 - 5 2 - 1 -3 +6 A+ A- F -9 C- C D-
 Sat, Dec 20 299 South Carolina Upstate W 74 - 65 76% +8  6 - 5 -2 -2 B- F D- +0 A- C- B-
 Mon, Dec 29 278 Detroit Mercy L 68 - 73 72% -7  6 - 6 2 - 2 -15 -11 F F+ B -4 F+ A+ A-
 Thu, Jan 1 128 Oakland L 83 - 85 40% +4  6 - 7 2 - 3 -3 +11 D A+ A+ -15 F C- C
 Sun, Jan 4 194 @Northern Kentucky L 79 - 94 34% -15  6 - 8 2 - 4 -14 -2 F D A+ -10 F D- C+
 Wed, Jan 7 216 Purdue Fort Wayne L 69 - 71 60% -0  6 - 9 2 - 5 -8 -3 F A+ D- -5 C- B- C+
 Thu, Jan 15 145 @Wright St. L 83 - 93 23% -5  6 - 10 2 - 6 -6 +16 C A+ B -23 C- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 305 @Cleveland St. L 78 - 80 57% -1  6 - 11 2 - 7 -7 -1 D F B- -6 F C+ B-
 Thu, Jan 22 257 Green Bay W 88 - 81 68% +8  7 - 11 3 - 7 -1 +12 A B+ D+ -13 F B- B-
 Sat, Jan 24 254 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 64 - 65 68% +1  7 - 12 3 - 8 -9 -12 D- F F +2 C C+ B-
 Fri, Jan 30 340 IU Indianapolis W 85 - 76 85% -1  8 - 12 4 - 8 -6 -1 B+ F F+ -5 C F B
 Wed, Feb 4 216 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 73 - 76 38%
 Sat, Feb 7 220 Robert Morris W 74 - 71 60%
 Thu, Feb 12 128 @Oakland L 75 - 84 21%
 Sun, Feb 15 278 @Detroit Mercy L 76 - 77 50%
 Wed, Feb 18 305 Cleveland St. W 84 - 76 76%
 Sat, Feb 21 194 Northern Kentucky W 77 - 75 56%
 Wed, Feb 25 254 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 75 - 76 45%
 Sat, Feb 28 257 @Green Bay L 73 - 74 45%
Totals 12 - 16 8 - 12 -4 -2 C C D -1 C- C B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.0 0.3 1.7 3rd
4th 0.2 3.3 2.1 0.1 5.8 4th
5th 0.0 3.4 4.4 0.4 8.2 5th
6th 0.8 8.8 1.8 0.0 11.4 6th
7th 0.2 7.3 7.4 0.2 15.1 7th
8th 0.1 4.3 12.9 1.1 18.4 8th
9th 0.1 2.7 10.4 4.9 0.0 18.1 9th
10th 0.6 3.5 9.6 6.6 0.5 20.7 10th
11th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 11th
Total 0.8 3.8 12.5 21.5 26.4 21.0 10.0 3.5 0.5 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.5% 19.1% 19.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-9 3.5% 17.3% 17.3% 14.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.9
10-10 10.0% 8.5% 8.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 9.2
9-11 21.0% 5.2% 5.2% 15.4 0.6 0.5 19.9
8-12 26.4% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8 25.5
7-13 21.5% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5 21.0
6-14 12.5% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 12.3
5-15 3.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 3.8
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 15.3 95.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%