Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.8#229
Expected Predictive Rating-5.9#265
Pace71.2#119
Improvement+0.6#147

Offense
Total Offense-5.7#328
First Shot-6.2#333
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#149
Layup/Dunks-2.4#259
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#194
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#306
Freethrows+0.7#143
Improvement-0.3#212

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#109
First Shot+2.5#103
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#227
Layups/Dunks-2.6#268
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#107
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#43
Freethrows-0.7#234
Improvement+0.9#102
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 7.9% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.3
.500 or above 45.3% 59.2% 34.7%
.500 or above in Conference 66.2% 79.0% 56.4%
Conference Champion 7.4% 12.5% 3.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 1.0% 3.4%
First Four1.3% 1.4% 1.3%
First Round5.4% 7.3% 3.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oakland (Home) - 43.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 412 - 715 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 359   @ Chicago St. W 80-60 76%     1 - 0 +8.7 +0.5 +7.5
  Nov 11, 2024 29   @ Ohio St. L 47-81 4%     1 - 1 -18.0 -18.5 +0.4
  Nov 16, 2024 96   @ Syracuse L 95-104 2OT 13%     1 - 2 -0.4 +4.0 -2.4
  Nov 21, 2024 287   Monmouth W 72-62 61%     2 - 2 +3.5 -8.0 +11.0
  Nov 22, 2024 248   Presbyterian L 42-67 53%     2 - 3 -29.6 -31.8 +1.3
  Nov 23, 2024 197   @ Stephen F. Austin L 57-64 31%     2 - 4 -5.7 -7.1 +1.0
  Nov 27, 2024 271   Western Michigan L 62-73 69%     2 - 5 -20.0 -13.5 -6.9
  Dec 04, 2024 275   @ Robert Morris W 72-58 48%     3 - 5 1 - 0 +10.8 -3.8 +13.9
  Dec 07, 2024 144   Oakland L 64-66 43%    
  Dec 14, 2024 203   Toledo W 75-74 55%    
  Dec 18, 2024 136   @ Wright St. L 68-76 23%    
  Dec 21, 2024 343   @ South Carolina Upstate W 78-73 68%    
  Dec 29, 2024 298   Detroit Mercy W 72-66 72%    
  Jan 01, 2025 356   @ IU Indianapolis W 74-67 73%    
  Jan 04, 2025 150   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 70-77 25%    
  Jan 08, 2025 216   Northern Kentucky W 69-67 57%    
  Jan 11, 2025 259   Cleveland St. W 69-64 67%    
  Jan 17, 2025 172   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 70-76 29%    
  Jan 19, 2025 310   @ Green Bay W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 22, 2025 275   Robert Morris W 70-65 69%    
  Jan 30, 2025 136   Wright St. L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 01, 2025 356   IU Indianapolis W 77-64 87%    
  Feb 06, 2025 144   @ Oakland L 61-69 24%    
  Feb 08, 2025 298   @ Detroit Mercy W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 12, 2025 150   Purdue Fort Wayne L 73-74 45%    
  Feb 16, 2025 259   @ Cleveland St. L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 21, 2025 172   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 73-72 50%    
  Feb 23, 2025 310   Green Bay W 78-71 73%    
  Mar 01, 2025 216   @ Northern Kentucky L 66-70 36%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.1 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.7 3.6 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.8 4.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.4 5.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 4.6 6.1 2.2 0.2 14.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.3 5.9 2.3 0.2 0.0 13.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.6 4.6 2.0 0.2 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.5 3.5 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 3.8 6.0 9.2 11.7 13.5 14.0 12.3 10.2 7.5 4.6 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 99.5% 0.4    0.4 0.0
17-3 94.6% 1.0    0.9 0.2 0.0
16-4 75.3% 1.9    1.3 0.5 0.1
15-5 46.1% 2.1    0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0
14-6 19.2% 1.4    0.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.4% 7.4 3.9 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 37.5% 37.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.4% 33.5% 33.5% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
17-3 1.1% 25.2% 25.2% 14.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8
16-4 2.5% 23.4% 23.4% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.9
15-5 4.6% 16.7% 16.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 3.8
14-6 7.5% 13.4% 13.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 6.5
13-7 10.2% 9.5% 9.5% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.5 9.2
12-8 12.3% 6.8% 6.8% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 11.5
11-9 14.0% 4.6% 4.6% 15.8 0.2 0.5 13.4
10-10 13.5% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.4 13.1
9-11 11.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 11.5
8-12 9.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 9.1
7-13 6.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.9
6-14 3.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.7
5-15 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-16 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.7 94.0 0.0%