Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.6 #188
Expected Predictive Rating -3.6 #227
Pace 68.0 #221
Improvement -1.5 #260

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #227 C+ D C F C+
Defense #149 C F B- B+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #304 1.22 #104 -1.8 #243
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #306 0.65 #298 -3.2 #328
Three Pointers 52% #17 1.05 #136 +6.8 #19
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #128 +1.8 #133
Freethrows 16.2 #247 67% #314 10.9 #278
Second Chance 31.8% #141 1.03 #189 0.33 #153
Turnovers 20.4% #346
Total Offense -2.1 #227

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #113 1.29 #315 -3.9 #302
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #62 0.65 #58 -0.4 #216
Three Pointers 34% #339 0.95 #116 +4.5 #33
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #166 +0.2 #165
Freethrows 20.9 #325 74% #241 15.5 #333
Second Chance 31.5% #210 0.91 #47 0.29 #105
Turnovers 19.2% #56
Total Defense +0.5 #149

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #128 -0.8% #108
Shot Type Make % Effect 2.8% #135 0.5% #188
Possession Length 18.4 #292 16.8 #111
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #148 0.23 #336
Improvement -1.2 #265 -0.3 #211

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.5% 14.1% 9.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 72.4% 84.7% 62.4%
.500 or above in Conference 74.2% 86.4% 64.2%
Conference Champion 4.6% 8.0% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.6% 0.3% 0.8%
First Round11.3% 14.0% 9.2%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Kentucky (Away) - 44.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 33 - 65 - 9
Quad 412 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 86 @Pittsburgh L 59-74 14%     -3.1   0 - 1 -5.1 -5.7 -0.4
  Fri, Nov 7 100 @Grand Canyon W 90-81 18%     2.7   1 - 1 +17.3 +20.8 -3.7
  Sat, Nov 15 114 @St. Bonaventure L 80-84 22%     5.3   1 - 2 +2.6 +9.5 -6.8
  Wed, Nov 19 182 @Toledo L 75-92 38%     -8.1   1 - 3 -15.4 -4.3 -10.0
  Sun, Nov 23 279 UNC Greensboro L 62-68 69%     9.2   1 - 4 -12.6 -17.9 +5.4
  Mon, Nov 24 204 Georgia Southern W 67-61 54%     3.9   2 - 4 +3.3 -6.8 +10.3
  Fri, Nov 28 337 Chicago St. W 87-64 88%     20.7   3 - 4 +8.7 +5.7 +2.8
  Wed, Dec 3 142 Wright St. W 69-68 52%     0.3   4 - 4 1 - 0 -1.0 -3.3 +2.3
  Sat, Dec 6 355 @IU Indianapolis W 78-55 81%     13.1   5 - 4 2 - 0 +12.3 +1.9 +11.4
  Wed, Dec 17 189 @Robert Morris L 77-80 OT 39%     3.1   5 - 5 2 - 1 -1.8 +7.0 -9.0
  Sat, Dec 20 287 South Carolina Upstate W 74-65 79%     7.7   6 - 5 -1.0 -3.6 +2.4
  Mon, Dec 29 284 Detroit Mercy L 68-73 79%     -7.2   6 - 6 2 - 2 -14.9 -10.1 -4.9
  Thu, Jan 1 143 Oakland L 83-85 52%     3.6   6 - 7 2 - 3 -4.0 +9.8 -13.9
  Sun, Jan 4 217 @Northern Kentucky L 72-73 45%    
  Wed, Jan 7 246 Purdue Fort Wayne W 77-71 73%    
  Thu, Jan 15 142 @Wright St. L 67-73 31%    
  Sat, Jan 17 325 @Cleveland St. W 79-74 69%    
  Thu, Jan 22 249 Green Bay W 74-67 73%    
  Sat, Jan 24 196 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-72 64%    
  Fri, Jan 30 355 IU Indianapolis W 90-75 92%    
  Wed, Feb 4 246 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 74-73 51%    
  Sat, Feb 7 189 Robert Morris W 72-69 62%    
  Thu, Feb 12 143 @Oakland L 77-83 31%    
  Sun, Feb 15 284 @Detroit Mercy W 74-72 58%    
  Wed, Feb 18 325 Cleveland St. W 82-71 85%    
  Sat, Feb 21 217 Northern Kentucky W 75-70 67%    
  Wed, Feb 25 196 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 73-75 42%    
  Sat, Feb 28 249 @Green Bay W 71-70 53%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.8 1.0 0.1 4.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.0 1.6 0.1 0.0 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.8 6.3 2.3 0.2 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.6 7.5 2.5 0.2 15.3 4th
5th 0.4 3.9 7.9 3.0 0.2 0.0 15.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 6.8 3.6 0.3 13.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.2 3.6 0.4 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.7 2.9 0.4 0.0 8.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 4.2 7.5 11.7 15.4 17.2 16.4 12.5 7.9 3.6 1.2 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 95.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 87.2% 1.0    0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0
15-5 48.4% 1.8    0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
14-6 17.8% 1.4    0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.6% 4.6 1.9 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 47.8% 47.8% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 1.2% 28.5% 28.5% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8
15-5 3.6% 25.9% 25.9% 13.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 2.7
14-6 7.9% 22.9% 22.9% 14.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.4 6.1
13-7 12.5% 18.2% 18.2% 14.4 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.1 10.2
12-8 16.4% 13.0% 13.0% 14.7 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.2 14.2
11-9 17.2% 11.1% 11.1% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.4 15.3
10-10 15.4% 7.6% 7.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.5 14.2
9-11 11.7% 4.7% 4.7% 15.7 0.2 0.4 11.2
8-12 7.5% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.2
7-13 4.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 4.2
6-14 1.6% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.5 4.7 1.9 88.5 0.0%