Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#163
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#166
Pace68.7#208
Improvement+0.3#164

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#217
First Shot-0.5#182
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#270
Layup/Dunks-3.7#304
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#269
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#20
Freethrows-1.8#292
Improvement-1.3#276

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#124
First Shot+1.0#134
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#163
Layups/Dunks-5.3#340
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#167
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.7#4
Freethrows-1.8#295
Improvement+1.6#77
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.5% 17.6% 11.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 89.7% 92.8% 75.4%
.500 or above in Conference 91.1% 93.9% 77.9%
Conference Champion 19.0% 21.4% 7.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round16.4% 17.5% 11.0%
Second Round0.7% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Home) - 82.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 65 - 8
Quad 413 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 84 @Pittsburgh L 59-74 17%     0 - 1 -5.4 -6.1 -0.3
  Fri, Nov 7 87 @Grand Canyon W 90-81 17%     1 - 1 +18.6 +20.9 -2.6
  Sat, Nov 15 116 @St. Bonaventure L 80-84 26%     1 - 2 +2.3 +10.0 -7.7
  Wed, Nov 19 170 @Toledo L 75-92 40%     1 - 3 -14.7 -4.3 -9.3
  Sun, Nov 23 294 UNC Greensboro L 62-68 74%     1 - 4 -13.1 -17.3 +4.4
  Mon, Nov 24 213 Georgia Southern W 67-61 61%     2 - 4 +2.6 -7.4 +10.3
  Fri, Nov 28 336 Chicago St. W 87-64 89%     3 - 4 +9.3 +6.8 +2.4
  Wed, Dec 3 153 Wright St. W 69-68 59%     4 - 4 1 - 0 -1.6 -3.4 +1.8
  Sat, Dec 6 354 @IU Indianapolis W 78-55 83%     5 - 4 2 - 0 +12.3 +2.2 +11.2
  Wed, Dec 17 185 @Robert Morris L 77-80 OT 44%     5 - 5 2 - 1 -1.7 +7.7 -9.6
  Sat, Dec 20 264 South Carolina Upstate W 74-65 79%     6 - 5 +0.3 -2.6 +2.8
  Mon, Dec 29 296 Detroit Mercy W 77-67 82%    
  Thu, Jan 1 137 Oakland W 80-79 53%    
  Sun, Jan 4 208 @Northern Kentucky L 73-74 49%    
  Wed, Jan 7 199 Purdue Fort Wayne W 78-73 68%    
  Thu, Jan 15 153 @Wright St. L 68-72 37%    
  Sat, Jan 17 334 @Cleveland St. W 79-72 74%    
  Thu, Jan 22 283 Green Bay W 75-66 80%    
  Sat, Jan 24 210 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 78-72 70%    
  Fri, Jan 30 354 IU Indianapolis W 91-75 93%    
  Wed, Feb 4 199 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 75-76 47%    
  Sat, Feb 7 185 Robert Morris W 72-68 66%    
  Thu, Feb 12 137 @Oakland L 77-82 32%    
  Sun, Feb 15 296 @Detroit Mercy W 74-70 64%    
  Wed, Feb 18 334 Cleveland St. W 82-69 88%    
  Sat, Feb 21 208 Northern Kentucky W 76-70 70%    
  Wed, Feb 25 210 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74-75 50%    
  Sat, Feb 28 283 @Green Bay W 72-69 61%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.3 5.7 3.7 1.5 0.3 19.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.8 7.6 6.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.6 7.8 4.9 1.0 0.1 17.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.6 3.8 0.5 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 5.2 3.2 0.6 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 4.8 8.1 11.3 14.3 16.2 15.3 12.3 7.8 4.0 1.5 0.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 99.3% 1.5    1.4 0.1
17-3 93.6% 3.7    3.2 0.5 0.0
16-4 73.6% 5.7    3.6 1.9 0.2
15-5 42.6% 5.3    2.1 2.4 0.8 0.1
14-6 14.4% 2.2    0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.0% 19.0 11.0 5.8 1.8 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.3% 43.6% 43.6% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 1.5% 38.8% 38.8% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.9
17-3 4.0% 34.5% 34.5% 13.2 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.6
16-4 7.8% 29.7% 29.7% 13.6 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.2 5.5
15-5 12.3% 24.3% 24.3% 13.9 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.5 0.0 9.3
14-6 15.3% 20.2% 20.2% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.9 0.1 12.2
13-7 16.2% 16.7% 16.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.3 0.1 13.5
12-8 14.3% 11.3% 11.3% 14.7 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.1 12.7
11-9 11.3% 8.4% 8.4% 15.1 0.1 0.6 0.2 10.4
10-10 8.1% 5.2% 5.2% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 7.7
9-11 4.8% 4.1% 4.1% 15.7 0.1 0.1 4.6
8-12 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 2.4
7-13 1.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 1.1
6-14 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.5% 16.5% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.6 3.4 6.7 4.8 0.9 83.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.8 29.4 64.7 2.9 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%