Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#278
Expected Predictive Rating-9.2#300
Pace67.4#230
Improvement-0.5#224

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#216
First Shot+1.6#132
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#333
Layup/Dunks+2.9#79
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#125
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#242
Freethrows+0.1#175
Improvement-1.9#332

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#313
First Shot-3.9#294
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#249
Layups/Dunks+1.5#136
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#215
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#309
Freethrows-1.2#253
Improvement+1.4#61
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.7% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 27.7% 42.7% 19.2%
.500 or above in Conference 38.6% 56.0% 28.7%
Conference Champion 2.2% 4.2% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.1% 4.0% 13.6%
First Four1.3% 1.6% 1.1%
First Round2.0% 3.0% 1.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Away) - 36.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 51 - 8
Quad 412 - 1013 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 67   @ Penn St. L 59-75 7%     0 - 1 -5.7 -2.0 -5.5
  Nov 13, 2021 304   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 97-79 44%     1 - 1 +13.0 +13.9 -2.0
  Nov 19, 2021 330   St. Thomas W 79-75 77%     2 - 1 -10.0 -3.6 -6.2
  Nov 20, 2021 328   SIU Edwardsville L 66-69 75%     2 - 2 -16.3 -12.5 -3.9
  Nov 21, 2021 185   Niagara L 53-58 41%     2 - 3 -9.2 -14.8 +5.0
  Dec 02, 2021 267   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 68-72 36%    
  Dec 04, 2021 300   @ Green Bay L 69-71 44%    
  Dec 08, 2021 302   Central Michigan W 78-73 66%    
  Dec 11, 2021 280   Canisius W 76-73 62%    
  Dec 22, 2021 48   @ West Virginia L 62-81 4%    
  Dec 30, 2021 228   @ Detroit Mercy L 72-78 29%    
  Jan 01, 2022 122   @ Oakland L 65-77 13%    
  Jan 05, 2022 290   @ Robert Morris L 73-75 42%    
  Jan 07, 2022 275   Purdue Fort Wayne W 77-74 60%    
  Jan 09, 2022 167   Cleveland St. L 67-70 38%    
  Jan 13, 2022 197   Northern Kentucky L 68-70 45%    
  Jan 15, 2022 206   Wright St. L 74-75 45%    
  Jan 21, 2022 167   @ Cleveland St. L 64-73 21%    
  Jan 23, 2022 275   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 74-77 38%    
  Jan 27, 2022 300   Green Bay W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 29, 2022 267   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 03, 2022 336   @ IUPUI W 66-63 61%    
  Feb 05, 2022 254   @ Illinois-Chicago L 68-72 35%    
  Feb 09, 2022 122   Oakland L 68-74 30%    
  Feb 11, 2022 228   Detroit Mercy L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 13, 2022 290   Robert Morris W 76-72 62%    
  Feb 17, 2022 254   Illinois-Chicago W 71-69 55%    
  Feb 19, 2022 336   IUPUI W 69-60 78%    
  Feb 24, 2022 206   @ Wright St. L 71-78 26%    
  Feb 26, 2022 197   @ Northern Kentucky L 65-73 25%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 10 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 6.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.6 2.0 0.5 0.1 9.2 5th
6th 0.5 2.7 4.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.0 2.8 0.6 0.0 11.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.6 4.9 2.5 0.5 0.0 11.1 9th
10th 0.2 1.0 3.1 4.0 2.4 0.5 0.0 11.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.9 3.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 10.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.1 6.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.4 5.3 7.4 8.8 11.0 11.2 11.3 10.1 8.5 6.9 5.5 3.4 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
20-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-3 87.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-4 78.3% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
17-5 52.5% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.0
16-6 23.9% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
15-7 8.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-8 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1 0.0% 0.0
20-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-3 0.2% 21.7% 21.7% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.2
18-4 0.5% 19.6% 19.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.4
17-5 1.2% 25.4% 25.4% 15.5 0.2 0.2 0.9
16-6 2.2% 10.6% 10.6% 15.6 0.1 0.1 2.0
15-7 3.4% 8.6% 8.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.1
14-8 5.5% 6.3% 6.3% 15.8 0.1 0.3 5.2
13-9 6.9% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4 6.5
12-10 8.5% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.3 8.3
11-11 10.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 9.9
10-12 11.3% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 11.1
9-13 11.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.1
8-14 11.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.0
7-15 8.8% 8.8
6-16 7.4% 7.4
5-17 5.3% 5.3
4-18 3.4% 3.4
3-19 1.9% 1.9
2-20 0.8% 0.8
1-21 0.3% 0.3
0-22 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 97.5 0.0%