George Mason
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#111
Expected Predictive Rating+6.9#88
Pace64.1#305
Improvement-0.8#261

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#134
First Shot-2.4#244
After Offensive Rebound+3.9#17
Layup/Dunks-3.9#311
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#90
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#212
Freethrows+0.5#150
Improvement+0.8#101

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#107
First Shot-0.6#192
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#22
Layups/Dunks+3.6#61
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#341
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#264
Freethrows+1.2#115
Improvement-1.6#325
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.7% 7.8% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.2 13.3
.500 or above 87.7% 88.3% 66.1%
.500 or above in Conference 66.3% 66.8% 47.5%
Conference Champion 9.8% 10.0% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 3.8% 7.6%
First Four0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
First Round7.5% 7.6% 4.3%
Second Round1.5% 1.6% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: NJIT (Home) - 97.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 38 - 511 - 11
Quad 48 - 118 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 246   Monmouth W 72-61 85%     1 - 0 +3.6 -3.8 +7.5
  Nov 10, 2023 260   Austin Peay W 67-45 87%     2 - 0 +13.6 -1.8 +18.0
  Nov 15, 2023 113   Cornell W 90-83 62%     3 - 0 +7.7 +14.5 -6.8
  Nov 19, 2023 120   Charlotte L 49-54 53%     3 - 1 -1.9 -10.9 +8.2
  Nov 20, 2023 143   South Dakota St. W 73-71 60%     4 - 1 +3.3 +5.3 -1.8
  Nov 25, 2023 208   East Carolina W 81-59 80%     5 - 1 +16.8 +17.4 +3.5
  Nov 29, 2023 353   NJIT W 79-59 97%    
  Dec 02, 2023 112   @ Toledo L 72-75 39%    
  Dec 05, 2023 8   @ Tennessee L 57-73 7%    
  Dec 16, 2023 308   Loyola Maryland W 73-58 91%    
  Dec 22, 2023 92   @ Tulane L 74-78 35%    
  Dec 30, 2023 360   N.C. A&T W 85-62 98%    
  Jan 03, 2024 204   @ La Salle W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 06, 2024 148   Saint Louis W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 09, 2024 82   Virginia Commonwealth W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 13, 2024 85   @ Richmond L 64-69 32%    
  Jan 15, 2024 147   @ George Washington L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 20, 2024 109   St. Bonaventure W 68-65 60%    
  Jan 27, 2024 176   Rhode Island W 72-65 74%    
  Jan 31, 2024 126   @ Saint Joseph's L 66-68 44%    
  Feb 03, 2024 140   @ Massachusetts L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 07, 2024 130   Loyola Chicago W 69-65 65%    
  Feb 10, 2024 141   @ Davidson L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 13, 2024 147   George Washington W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 21, 2024 70   Dayton L 64-65 47%    
  Feb 24, 2024 130   @ Loyola Chicago L 66-68 44%    
  Feb 27, 2024 172   @ Fordham W 67-66 54%    
  Mar 02, 2024 84   Duquesne W 72-71 53%    
  Mar 06, 2024 176   @ Rhode Island W 69-68 55%    
  Mar 09, 2024 85   Richmond W 67-66 53%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.9 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 9.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.2 2.0 0.6 0.1 10.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.8 4.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 9.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.0 3.3 0.4 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 4.6 1.0 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.3 2.0 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.9 3.5 0.3 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 3.7 1.2 0.0 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.0 2.5 0.1 6.0 10th
11th 0.2 1.7 2.8 0.6 5.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 2.3 1.2 0.0 4.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 1.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.1 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 4.2 6.1 8.7 10.8 12.0 12.8 12.3 10.4 8.3 5.3 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 94.3% 1.4    1.2 0.1
15-3 80.7% 2.6    1.9 0.7 0.0
14-4 55.7% 2.9    1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 22.2% 1.8    0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.8% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.8% 9.8 5.7 2.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 89.6% 39.6% 50.0% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 82.8%
17-1 0.5% 47.3% 30.4% 16.9% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 24.2%
16-2 1.4% 45.1% 25.0% 20.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 26.8%
15-3 3.2% 24.9% 20.4% 4.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 2.4 5.6%
14-4 5.3% 19.5% 16.9% 2.6% 11.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 4.2 3.1%
13-5 8.3% 13.5% 12.8% 0.7% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 7.2 0.7%
12-6 10.4% 9.1% 9.1% 12.3 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 9.5
11-7 12.3% 7.4% 7.4% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 11.4
10-8 12.8% 6.3% 6.3% 13.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 12.0
9-9 12.0% 4.1% 4.1% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 11.5
8-10 10.8% 2.9% 2.9% 14.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.5
7-11 8.7% 2.3% 2.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.6
6-12 6.1% 1.1% 1.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1
5-13 4.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 4.1
4-14 2.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-15 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.7% 7.0% 0.8% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.7 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 92.3 0.8%