Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.9 #172
Expected Predictive Rating -0.4 #171
Pace 60.1 #361
Improvement +7.3 #5

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #241 C- C C+ D+ C
Defense #120 B- C+ D C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #252 1.17 #156 -1.3 #225
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #231 0.71 #264 -1.5 #263
Three Pointers 46% #71 0.92 #308 +0.4 #165
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #250 -2.4 #250
Freethrows 0.30 #206 63% #365 0.19 #301
Second Chance 29.2% #219 1.03 #168 0.30 #204
Turnovers 16.1% #127
Total Offense -2.6 #241

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #227 1.06 #68 +2.6 #93
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #241 0.74 #150 +1.1 #103
Three Pointers 45% #78 0.98 #118 -0.9 #225
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #94 +2.8 #86
Freethrows 0.29 #120 71% #93 0.20 #108
Second Chance 30.5% #180 0.94 #63 0.29 #102
Turnovers 14.3% #329
Total Defense +1.7 #120

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #172 0.3% #197
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.0% #263 -5.5% #73
Possession Length 19.7 #358 17.5 #223
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #305 0.16 #134
Improvement +2.1 #80 +5.2 #6

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.9% 20.8% 17.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 99.7% 100.0% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 21.8% 22.5% 20.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round19.9% 20.8% 17.5%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Home) - 71.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 34 - 45 - 6
Quad 413 - 619 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 292 @Central Michigan L 66 - 82 64% -12  0 - 1 -20 -4 F C B- -18 F C C
 Sun, Nov 9 344 NC Central W 76 - 54 90% +16  1 - 1 +7 +3 F A+ A+ +6 A B C-
 Tue, Nov 11 36 @Ohio St. L 53 - 75 6% -6  1 - 2 -5 -7 D- B- B -1 A+ D F
 Sun, Nov 16 229 @Dartmouth W 85 - 77 50% +5  2 - 2 +7 +9 A C F -2 D C+ B-
 Fri, Nov 21 155 Charlotte W 65 - 63 59% -2  3 - 2 -1 +3 C+ B- C -4 A+ F+ D+
 Mon, Nov 24 202 Elon L 53 - 88 68% -17  3 - 3 -41 -18 F F B- -28 B F F
 Wed, Nov 26 152 @Mercer L 67 - 75 35% +3  3 - 4 -5 +2 F+ B A+ -8 B F+ D+
 Sun, Nov 30 213 @UNC Asheville L 55 - 67 46% -8  3 - 5 -12 -13 F D+ C -0 B+ F B
 Thu, Dec 11 249 @East Carolina W 67 - 54 54% +9  4 - 5 +11 +1 C+ B F +11 A B F+
 Sun, Dec 14 97 High Point W 86 - 78 OT 27% +2  5 - 5 +14 +7 B+ F A+ +6 A- A+ D
 Thu, Dec 18 240 Coastal Carolina W 67 - 49 74% +4  6 - 5 1 - 0 +10 -3 A- F F +14 A+ B- D+
 Sat, Dec 20 273 Georgia St. L 63 - 70 79% -4  6 - 6 1 - 1 -16 -11 D F B+ -6 F A+ B
 Wed, Dec 31 259 @Old Dominion W 81 - 73 57% +13  7 - 6 2 - 1 +5 +12 C+ A+ C- -6 F B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 156 @Marshall L 81 - 88 36% -8  7 - 7 2 - 2 -4 +9 B- B+ B- -13 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 273 @Georgia St. W 52 - 50 59% -2  8 - 7 3 - 2 -1 -14 F C- D +13 A+ C F
 Sat, Jan 10 240 @Coastal Carolina L 62 - 67 53% +5  8 - 8 3 - 3 -7 +4 F+ B+ A+ -11 F C D-
 Thu, Jan 15 220 James Madison W 80 - 65 70% +11  9 - 8 4 - 3 +9 +18 A+ A+ B -6 A C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 259 Old Dominion L 73 - 75 77% -10  9 - 9 4 - 4 -11 +2 C- B+ A -13 F C C-
 Thu, Jan 22 295 Louisiana W 72 - 58 82% +1  10 - 9 5 - 4 +3 +9 A+ C- D- -3 A- D- F
 Fri, Jan 23 355 Louisiana Monroe W 59 - 43 93% +8  11 - 9 6 - 4 -1 -22 F F C +21 A+ A C
 Thu, Jan 29 244 @Southern Miss W 70 - 63 54% +2  12 - 9 7 - 4 +5 +2 D+ F A- +4 B B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 136 @Troy W 66 - 44 30% +9  13 - 9 8 - 4 +26 +7 B F D- +23 A+ A+ D+
 Wed, Feb 4 203 South Alabama W 65 - 57 68% +3  14 - 9 9 - 4 +2 +4 D C A+ -0 C A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 230 Eastern Michigan W 67 - 61 72%
 Wed, Feb 11 270 @Georgia Southern W 72 - 70 58%
 Sat, Feb 14 220 @James Madison L 66 - 67 48%
 Thu, Feb 19 156 Marshall W 70 - 68 59%
 Sat, Feb 21 270 Georgia Southern W 75 - 67 78%
 Fri, Feb 27 256 @Texas St. W 65 - 64 56%
Totals 18 - 11 12 - 6 -1 -3 C- C C+ +2 B- C+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.5 11.1 7.2 21.8 1st
2nd 0.0 4.2 21.2 13.7 1.4 40.6 2nd
3rd 0.7 11.0 8.6 0.6 20.8 3rd
4th 0.0 2.9 6.7 0.4 10.0 4th
5th 0.1 3.0 0.8 3.9 5th
6th 0.3 1.4 1.7 6th
7th 0.5 0.2 0.7 7th
8th 0.3 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 1.3 8.2 22.8 33.7 25.4 8.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 83.4% 7.2    4.0 3.2 0.0
13-5 43.6% 11.1    2.8 6.4 1.8 0.1
12-6 10.4% 3.5    0.2 0.9 1.7 0.6 0.1
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.8% 21.8 7.0 10.5 3.5 0.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 8.6% 32.4% 32.4% 13.6 0.1 1.2 1.3 0.3 5.8
13-5 25.4% 26.4% 26.4% 14.2 0.0 0.7 3.8 2.1 0.1 18.7
12-6 33.7% 22.3% 22.3% 14.6 0.3 3.0 3.8 0.4 26.2
11-7 22.8% 11.2% 11.2% 14.8 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.3 20.3
10-8 8.2% 3.5% 3.5% 14.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.9
9-9 1.3% 2.3% 2.3% 15.0 0.0 1.3
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.9% 19.9% 0.0% 14.4 80.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.2% 100.0% 13.5 3.3 50.7 42.8 3.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.4%