Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#230
Expected Predictive Rating-1.8#196
Pace60.0#364
Improvement+4.5#8

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#256
First Shot-5.1#318
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#77
Layup/Dunks-1.9#251
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#193
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#182
Freethrows-2.8#318
Improvement-0.2#194

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#181
First Shot+0.6#150
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#273
Layups/Dunks+1.4#127
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#32
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#251
Freethrows-1.3#271
Improvement+4.7#2
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 4.7% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 54.2% 63.8% 37.4%
.500 or above in Conference 60.6% 70.4% 43.5%
Conference Champion 4.5% 6.3% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.7% 3.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round3.7% 4.7% 1.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coastal Carolina (Home) - 63.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 64 - 8
Quad 411 - 615 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 323 @Central Michigan L 66-82 60%     0 - 1 -22.6 -5.5 -18.4
  Sun, Nov 9 350 NC Central W 76-54 85%     1 - 1 +6.8 +4.7 +4.1
  Tue, Nov 11 31 @Ohio St. L 53-75 4%     1 - 2 -5.3 -5.6 -2.8
  Sun, Nov 16 208 @Dartmouth W 85-77 35%     2 - 2 +7.9 +10.1 -2.4
  Fri, Nov 21 196 Charlotte W 65-63 55%     3 - 2 -3.3 +4.1 -7.0
  Mon, Nov 24 191 Elon L 53-88 54%     3 - 3 -39.9 -18.4 -26.7
  Wed, Nov 26 167 @Mercer L 67-75 28%     3 - 4 -5.7 +2.9 -9.6
  Sun, Nov 30 223 @UNC Asheville L 55-67 37%     3 - 5 -12.6 -14.3 +0.7
  Thu, Dec 11 280 @East Carolina W 67-54 49%     4 - 5 +9.4 -0.6 +11.0
  Sun, Dec 14 105 High Point W 86-78 OT 22%     5 - 5 +12.1 +5.7 +5.8
  Thu, Dec 18 245 Coastal Carolina W 69-65 64%    
  Sat, Dec 20 335 Georgia St. W 71-61 82%    
  Wed, Dec 31 217 @Old Dominion L 66-70 37%    
  Sat, Jan 3 160 @Marshall L 65-72 26%    
  Thu, Jan 8 335 @Georgia St. W 68-64 64%    
  Sat, Jan 10 245 @Coastal Carolina L 66-68 42%    
  Thu, Jan 15 183 James Madison W 68-67 52%    
  Sat, Jan 17 217 Old Dominion W 69-67 59%    
  Thu, Jan 22 326 Louisiana W 65-56 79%    
  Sat, Jan 24 357 Louisiana Monroe W 75-62 89%    
  Thu, Jan 29 202 @Southern Miss L 65-69 35%    
  Sat, Jan 31 142 @Troy L 63-71 23%    
  Wed, Feb 4 180 South Alabama W 64-63 51%    
  Wed, Feb 11 237 @Georgia Southern L 70-73 40%    
  Sat, Feb 14 183 @James Madison L 65-70 31%    
  Thu, Feb 19 160 Marshall L 68-69 46%    
  Sat, Feb 21 237 Georgia Southern W 73-70 61%    
  Fri, Feb 27 241 @Texas St. L 63-65 42%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 4.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 4.5 2.4 0.3 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.5 4.2 3.8 0.6 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.7 5.5 1.3 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 5.2 2.8 0.1 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 4.3 4.6 0.5 0.0 10.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.1 1.3 0.0 9.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.5 2.3 0.1 9.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.2 2.2 0.3 7.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 14th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.5 7.6 10.5 13.5 14.5 14.4 12.0 8.7 6.0 3.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 97.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 96.8% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
15-3 80.1% 1.1    0.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 51.0% 1.6    0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 17.1% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.5% 4.5 2.1 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 33.3% 33.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.5% 30.3% 30.3% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.4% 28.5% 28.5% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.0
14-4 3.1% 21.1% 21.1% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 2.4
13-5 6.0% 14.3% 14.3% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 5.1
12-6 8.7% 7.4% 7.4% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 8.1
11-7 12.0% 4.1% 4.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 11.5
10-8 14.4% 1.7% 1.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 14.1
9-9 14.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.6 0.1 0.1 14.3
8-10 13.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 13.4
7-11 10.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.5
6-12 7.6% 7.6
5-13 4.5% 4.5
4-14 2.1% 2.1
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.8 0.5 96.3 0.0%