Coastal Carolina
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -4.4 236
Expected Predictive Rating -1.5 189
Pace 67.2 224
Improvement +2.1 98

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #274 D+ D B- D D-
Defense C #180 B- C+ F C+ A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 355 52% 316 -6.9 354
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 50 38% 178 +2.7 59
Three Pointers 43% 150 34% 186 +0.9 146
1st FG Attempt 0.95 284 -3.4 283
Second Chance 25.4% 321 0.94 295 0.24 329
Turnovers 15.6% 98
Freethrows 0.26 327 72% 197 0.18 320
Total Offense -3.9 274

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 325 51% 30 +6.0 24
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 9 42% 305 -4.9 363
Three Pointers 37% 289 35% 227 +1.4 124
1st FG Attempt 0.97 96 +2.5 96
Second Chance 27.9% 79 1.05 217 0.29 120
Turnovers 12.5% 357
Freethrows 0.30 164 71% 90 0.21 138
Total Defense -0.4 180

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.5 338 -1.7 9
Shot Type Accuracy -1.9 237 -0.8 153
Possession Length 18.6 315 16.1 21
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 328 0.14 66
Improvement +3.9 #20 -1.8 #288

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.9% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 89.0% 97.2% 80.6%
.500 or above in Conference 75.7% 91.5% 59.7%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.1% 2.9% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Away) - 50.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 34 - 55 - 7
Quad 412 - 717 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 288 @Western Michigan L 71 - 76 50% +1  52% 0 - 1 D -9 F -14 F D+ F+ B +5 C+ A B
 Tue, Nov 11 132 Winthrop W 72 - 66 38% +7  96% 1 - 1 B- +5 D- -7 B B F A +11 A- A+ F+
 Fri, Nov 14 176 @Jacksonville St. L 67 - 74 27% -7  6% 1 - 2 D+ -5 D+ -2 F B+ A C- -3 B F+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 362 @Western Illinois W 84 - 64 83% +13  92% 2 - 2 B- +6 C- -1 D D+ C B+ +6 A- F F+
 Sat, Nov 22 293 North Dakota W 75 - 58 63% +10  79% 3 - 2 B +9 F -11 C F A+ A+ +19 A+ B- D+
 Sun, Nov 23 95 @Illinois St. L 42 - 94 12% -29  0% 3 - 3 F -44 F -31 F F B+ F+ -10 D- B F
 Sun, Nov 30 304 Alabama A&M W 67 - 60 75% +6  95% 4 - 3 C- -4 F -12 F D- C B+ +8 B A D
 Wed, Dec 3 298 @South Carolina Upstate L 78 - 85 OT 52% +7  83% 4 - 4 D- -12 D- -8 D F B+ C- -3 C B+ F+
 Sat, Dec 6 132 @Winthrop W 88 - 84 19% -1  32% 5 - 4 B +9 A+ +14 B C A D+ -5 B F D+
 Sat, Dec 13 63 @Grand Canyon L 61 - 82 8% -19  0% 5 - 5 D -10 D+ -3 C F+ A+ D -7 A- F F
 Thu, Dec 18 173 @Appalachian St. L 49 - 67 27% -4  21% 5 - 6 0 - 1 F+ -16 F -19 F D- C C+ +2 F A+ B
 Sat, Dec 20 252 @Old Dominion W 76 - 74 41% +1  64% 6 - 6 1 - 1 C -0 D+ -3 D- F A+ B- +3 C- D+ B-
 Mon, Dec 22 129 @Saint Joseph's W 68 - 62 19% +2  63% 7 - 6 B +11 D+ -3 D+ C C A+ +14 A A+ D
 Thu, Jan 1 265 Georgia Southern L 81 - 82 OT 67% -3  21% 7 - 7 1 - 2 D -10 D- -7 F C+ B+ C- -3 B- D D
 Sat, Jan 3 274 Georgia St. L 71 - 89 69% +1  62% 7 - 8 1 - 3 F -27 C- -2 F+ A+ D F -27 F F F
 Thu, Jan 8 252 Old Dominion L 66 - 70 64% -7  0% 7 - 9 1 - 4 D- -12 F -12 F F+ C C -0 C D- B-
 Sat, Jan 10 173 Appalachian St. W 67 - 62 48% -5  17% 8 - 9 2 - 4 C +1 B +6 A+ D+ B D+ -4 A F+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 161 @Marshall W 85 - 83 25% +5  81% 9 - 9 3 - 4 C+ +5 A- +11 A+ D- C D -6 D A F
 Sat, Jan 17 265 @Georgia Southern W 79 - 75 OT 44% -2  36% 10 - 9 4 - 4 C +1 D+ -4 F F+ D+ B +5 A C- F
 Thu, Jan 22 247 Texas St. W 72 - 70 63% +3  64% 11 - 9 5 - 4 D+ -6 D+ -3 F+ F+ A C- -2 A B- F
 Sat, Jan 24 240 Southern Miss W 85 - 67 62% +12  99% 12 - 9 6 - 4 B +10 A- +11 A+ D+ F C+ +0 C A F
 Thu, Jan 29 190 @South Alabama L 48 - 53 30% -0  45% 12 - 10 6 - 5 C- -4 F -17 F F C- A +12 A- A- F
 Sun, Feb 1 355 @Louisiana Monroe W 83 - 79 74% +5  94% 13 - 10 7 - 5 D+ -7 B +6 A- C B- F -13 F D+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 147 Arkansas St. L 66 - 70 41% -0  43% 13 - 11 7 - 6 D+ -6 F -11 D- C+ F B +4 C+ A C
 Sat, Feb 7 183 Massachusetts W 94 - 91 3OT 50% -4  17% 14 - 11 C -1 C +0 C+ F+ A+ C- -2 A- D F
 Thu, Feb 12 289 @Louisiana W 66 - 65 50%
 Wed, Feb 18 220 James Madison W 72 - 70 56%
 Sat, Feb 21 161 Marshall L 73 - 74 47%
 Tue, Feb 24 274 @Georgia St. L 71 - 72 46%
 Fri, Feb 27 220 @James Madison L 69 - 73 35%
Totals 16 - 14 9 - 9 -4 D+ -4 D+ D B- C +0 B- C+ F



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D C C C- 30% 28% 43% D- D+ D D+ D B- D- C D C B+ D C- C+ 32% 30% 37% A B- B- C- C+ F C+ B- C+
1.03 52% 38% 34% -2 -2 0.95 25% 0.9 .24 16% .26 72% .18 1.09 51% 42% 35% -1 -2 0.97 28% 1.0 .29 12% .30 71% .18
Nov
3		 Western Michigan F C+ D+ F F+ 25% 26% 49% F F F A+ D+ F+ C+ F D+ B B- F A C 38% 31% 31% B+ C+ A+ C- A B F F F
0.94 62% 36% 27% -5 -2 0.89 22% 1.4 .32 17% .32 60% .19 1.01 50% 53% 27% -2 -1 0.96 16% 1.0 .16 20% .58 80% .46
Nov
11		 Winthrop D- F F A+ B 35% 15% 50% C+ B C A B F B+ F D+ A A D B A- 44% 19% 37% C+ A- A+ D- A+ F+ C A+ A
1.01 44% 29% 48% +4 0 1.11 29% 1.3 .39 24% .39 57% .22 0.92 42% 40% 30% -9 +1 0.85 14% 1.2 .17 11% .36 57% .20
Nov
14		 Jacksonville St. D+ F+ B+ F F 32% 21% 47% D+ F C+ A+ B+ A D A+ C+ C- B+ A+ D B 47% 14% 39% C+ B A- F F+ F C- C- C-
1.00 47% 45% 16% -15 0 0.72 30% 1.3 .40 12% .27 94% .26 1.11 48% 14% 37% -6 +1 0.92 24% 1.7 .39 12% .39 70% .27
Nov
21		 Western Illinois C- F+ F A+ D+ 27% 20% 54% F+ D C+ F+ D+ C C D C- B+ D+ B- A+ B- 17% 52% 31% A+ A- C- F F F+ D+ D D
1.14 53% 18% 43% +2 -1 1.05 35% 0.9 .32 15% .32 70% .22 0.87 56% 32% 18% -11 -6 0.69 27% 1.3 .35 14% .33 71% .24
Nov
22		 North Dakota F D+ A+ B- C 39% 17% 44% D+ C F B- F A+ F F F A+ A+ A A+ A+ 23% 33% 44% A+ A+ C- A- B- D+ F B+ F
1.01 57% 56% 38% +5 +1 1.13 15% 1.2 .18 13% .28 56% .16 0.78 36% 25% 14% -22 -3 0.52 29% 0.9 .25 13% .53 65% .34
Nov
23		 Illinois St. F D- C+ F F 17% 40% 43% F F F F F B+ F F F F+ B+ F F F 25% 34% 41% A+ D- A F B F D+ F D-
0.56 50% 38% 12% -16 -4 0.62 13% 0.3 .04 13% .08 60% .05 1.26 53% 48% 48% +11 -3 1.18 19% 1.3 .26 8% .32 77% .25
Nov
30		 Alabama A&M F F C C- F 30% 36% 34% F F D- D D- C A+ A+ A+ B+ A- C B B- 32% 34% 34% A- B B+ A+ A D D A C
0.97 31% 38% 33% -8 -3 0.80 24% 0.9 .22 16% .59 82% .48 0.87 44% 35% 29% -8 -2 0.82 20% 0.7 .14 15% .37 64% .24
Dec
3		 South Carolina Upstate D- D- F A+ D 41% 19% 41% C D D- F F B+ F B+ F C- B- C- C C 47% 22% 31% D+ C B- A- B+ F+ F B- F
0.97 50% 8% 42% -4 0 0.95 25% 0.6 .15 12% .19 77% .14 1.06 52% 38% 33% -3 0 0.97 26% 0.7 .19 14% .52 67% .35
Dec
6		 Winthrop A+ F A+ A+ B+ 31% 25% 44% D B D- A+ C A A B- A D+ C- B B+ B- 29% 21% 50% A B F C- F D+ F B+ F
1.26 44% 54% 43% +6 -1 1.12 24% 1.4 .32 11% .42 77% .32 1.20 57% 30% 29% -5 -1 0.90 44% 1.0 .46 13% .56 71% .40
Dec
13		 Grand Canyon D+ C- D- D+ C 33% 33% 34% D C D+ F F+ A+ F F F D A A- C- B+ 33% 26% 40% A A- F C F F C+ F D+
0.90 53% 32% 30% -6 -2 0.86 23% 0.7 .16 6% .13 50% .06 1.21 47% 27% 35% -6 -1 0.88 47% 1.0 .47 7% .32 85% .27
Dec
18		 Appalachian St. F F B- F F 33% 24% 43% D+ F D+ F D- C B F D C+ C+ D F F 40% 27% 33% B+ F A A+ A+ B F C- F
0.75 41% 42% 18% -15 -1 0.71 27% 0.8 .20 14% .32 50% .16 1.03 56% 42% 47% +6 -1 1.13 22% 0.7 .16 18% .42 64% .26
Dec
20		 Old Dominion D+ C B- F D- 42% 31% 27% D- D- F F F A+ C A+ B+ B- B- C- F D+ 33% 37% 29% A- C- A+ F D+ B- D+ F+ D
1.04 60% 39% 19% -5 -1 0.90 20% 0.6 .13 7% .35 88% .31 1.01 53% 37% 40% +1 -3 0.98 16% 1.8 .29 18% .32 79% .25
Dec
22		 Saint Joseph's D+ B A+ F C 25% 42% 34% F D+ F+ A+ C C A- C+ B+ A+ A- F A+ A 33% 20% 47% B+ A A+ A A+ D B D+ B-
0.95 62% 50% 17% -3 -4 0.89 23% 1.4 .31 15% .28 71% .20 0.87 50% 45% 19% -12 0 0.78 23% 0.8 .19 15% .23 79% .18
Jan
1		 Georgia Southern D- F+ F C+ F 35% 35% 30% F F B D+ C+ B+ B+ B- A- C- C+ D- A+ C 29% 31% 40% A+ B- C- D- D D F D+ F
1.06 50% 20% 35% -8 -2 0.81 41% 1.0 .41 16% .42 78% .33 1.07 53% 50% 22% -5 -2 0.88 29% 1.3 .36 13% .48 75% .36
Jan
3		 Georgia St. C- D+ F D+ F+ 28% 19% 53% D F+ B+ A+ A+ D B- A+ B+ F D C F F 10% 38% 52% A+ F C F F F A- F C
1.09 54% 22% 32% -6 -1 0.89 40% 1.3 .50 19% .32 82% .26 1.37 60% 35% 56% +16 -4 1.25 27% 1.6 .43 11% .24 100% .24
Jan
8		 Old Dominion F D- F B+ F+ 33% 25% 42% D- F F B F+ C D B- D+ C A F+ C- C+ 40% 29% 31% C C F C+ D- B- B+ A+ A+
0.96 53% 8% 36% -8 -1 0.85 18% 1.1 .21 15% .31 78% .24 1.02 45% 44% 35% -3 -1 0.95 34% 1.0 .34 17% .23 38% .09
Jan
10		 Appalachian St. B A D- A+ A+ 35% 28% 37% D- A+ D- C+ D+ B D- F F D+ B+ A- B+ A- 29% 29% 43% A+ A D+ F+ F+ F C- F D-
1.16 69% 31% 47% +9 -1 1.17 24% 1.0 .24 12% .22 55% .12 1.08 50% 29% 29% -8 -2 0.82 32% 1.2 .38 7% .32 76% .24
Jan
14		 Marshall A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 24% 43% C- A+ F A+ D- C D- A+ C+ D B- D F F 20% 52% 28% A+ D B- A+ A F C A+ B
1.23 75% 58% 43% +16 -1 1.33 17% 1.3 .21 17% .30 88% .26 1.20 58% 42% 53% +10 -5 1.12 31% 0.8 .23 9% .25 63% .16
Jan
17		 Georgia Southern D+ F A F D- 19% 38% 43% F F C- F F+ D+ A+ A- A+ B A+ B- A- A 37% 18% 46% B A D+ B- C- F D- A+ C+
1.07 44% 50% 25% -4 -4 0.87 34% 0.8 .26 20% .64 82% .52 1.01 38% 40% 27% -12 0 0.79 30% 1.1 .32 7% .40 57% .23
Jan
22		 Texas St. D+ B+ A F D 24% 27% 49% F F+ F+ D F+ A A+ B A+ C- A+ F A+ A- 34% 45% 21% A+ A B C+ B- F D- F F
1.05 67% 46% 25% -2 -2 0.94 21% 0.9 .18 13% .49 76% .37 1.02 42% 48% 8% -9 -3 0.77 29% 0.8 .24 6% .33 90% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Southern Miss A- B- B+ A+ A+ 33% 24% 42% D A+ D+ C D+ F C- A- C+ C+ D B- B+ D+ 33% 45% 22% A C A+ F A F C- A+ B-
1.26 60% 45% 63% +21 -1 1.42 25% 1.0 .25 22% .32 76% .25 0.99 65% 35% 27% -1 -4 0.92 14% 1.4 .20 10% .38 65% .25
Jan
29		 South Alabama F F D F F 16% 6% 78% C- F D F F C- D- F F A A+ F B- B+ 40% 26% 34% A- A- A+ F A- F A+ B+ A+
0.80 50% 33% 25% -12 0 0.78 28% 0.5 .14 18% .14 57% .08 0.88 30% 54% 29% -9 -1 0.82 12% 1.5 .18 7% .18 60% .11
Feb
1		 Louisiana Monroe B B B A+ A 29% 22% 49% D- A- C C- C B- F D F F B+ F D- F 30% 21% 48% C+ F F+ B- D+ F B+ C B+
1.24 67% 45% 48% +15 -1 1.29 37% 1.1 .40 15% .16 67% .11 1.18 47% 67% 37% +5 -1 1.11 30% 0.9 .27 10% .25 73% .18
Feb
4		 Arkansas St. F F+ A D- D- 28% 16% 56% C D- B- C- C+ F C- F D B A+ B F C 33% 27% 41% A C+ C A+ A C D- B D+
0.94 50% 50% 29% -5 0 0.92 30% 1.0 .30 23% .31 65% .20 1.00 38% 31% 45% -2 -1 0.96 38% 0.7 .25 20% .37 71% .27
Feb
7		 Massachusetts C D D A+ B+ 25% 34% 41% F C+ B- F F+ A+ F F F C- A+ F D B 31% 39% 31% A+ A- F+ C+ D F C+ A+ A
1.12 56% 33% 48% +7 -3 1.10 31% 0.6 .19 12% .22 50% .11 1.09 21% 54% 37% -4 -3 0.89 39% 1.1 .44 14% .32 48% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 1.5 2.7 2nd
3rd 0.6 5.0 1.1 6.7 3rd
4th 0.0 5.2 5.5 0.1 10.8 4th
5th 1.6 12.2 1.8 15.6 5th
6th 0.0 9.7 8.4 0.2 18.3 6th
7th 1.1 13.2 1.4 15.7 7th
8th 0.0 5.3 6.1 0.1 11.4 8th
9th 0.2 7.5 0.7 8.4 9th
10th 1.0 4.3 0.0 5.3 10th
11th 2.1 0.9 3.0 11th
12th 1.6 0.1 1.7 12th
13th 0.3 0.3 13th
14th 14th
Total 5.1 19.1 31.3 27.9 13.6 3.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 6.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 3.0% 10.6% 10.6% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.6
11-7 13.6% 5.9% 5.9% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 12.8
10-8 27.9% 2.2% 2.2% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 27.3
9-9 31.3% 0.9% 0.9% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 31.0
8-10 19.1% 0.5% 0.5% 15.4 0.1 0.0 19.1
7-11 5.1% 5.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 14.7 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 14.1 17.5 58.7 22.2 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%
Lose Out 5.1%