IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Fresno St.
Mountain West
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.3	#198
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	76.1	#20
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.0	#194

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.3	#208

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.5%	0.5%	0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	11.4	11.2	12.0

.500 or above	21.1%	23.4%	7.1%
.500 or above in Conference	14.1%	15.5%	6.1%
Conference Champion	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
Last Place in Conference	22.7%	20.7%	34.7%

First Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
First Round	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina Upstate (Home) - 85.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 3	0 - 4
Quad 2	1 - 6	1 - 10
Quad 3	4 - 6	5 - 17
Quad 4	7 - 3	12 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2025	336	South Carolina Upstate	W	88-77	86%
Nov 08, 2025	264	Long Beach St.	W	74-68	71%
Nov 12, 2025	117	UC San Diego	L	72-74	43%
Nov 15, 2025	119	Utah Valley	L	74-76	44%
Nov 18, 2025	212	Stephen F. Austin	W	74-70	63%
Nov 21, 2025	312	New Orleans	W	83-74	79%
Nov 26, 2025	239	Pepperdine	W	78-76	57%
Nov 30, 2025	223	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	76-72	65%
Dec 06, 2025	17	@ Arkansas	L	66-88	3%
Dec 10, 2025	176	@ Cal St. Northridge	L	79-83	36%
Dec 20, 2025	86	@ UNLV	L	67-78	16%
Dec 30, 2025	54	Utah St.	L	73-82	20%
Jan 03, 2026	98	Nevada	L	68-72	35%
Jan 06, 2026	159	@ San Jose St.	L	71-76	33%
Jan 10, 2026	38	@ San Diego St.	L	62-80	6%
Jan 13, 2026	94	Colorado St.	L	71-76	35%
Jan 17, 2026	155	Wyoming	W	71-70	53%
Jan 21, 2026	79	@ New Mexico	L	74-86	15%
Jan 24, 2026	80	Grand Canyon	L	76-82	30%
Jan 31, 2026	280	@ Air Force	W	71-70	55%
Feb 03, 2026	86	UNLV	L	70-75	32%
Feb 07, 2026	98	@ Nevada	L	65-75	20%
Feb 10, 2026	54	@ Utah St.	L	70-85	10%
Feb 14, 2026	280	Air Force	W	74-67	73%
Feb 17, 2026	155	@ Wyoming	L	68-73	32%
Feb 21, 2026	79	New Mexico	L	77-83	30%
Feb 24, 2026	94	@ Colorado St.	L	68-79	19%
Feb 28, 2026	62	Boise St.	L	69-78	24%
Mar 03, 2026	159	San Jose St.	W	74-73	53%
Mar 07, 2026	80	@ Grand Canyon	L	73-85	16%
Projected Record						12 - 18	6 - 14

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.3	1st
2nd												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0					0.8	2nd
3rd												0.1	0.4	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0						1.5	3rd
4th										0.0	0.1	0.7	1.0	0.5	0.1	0.0							2.4	4th
5th									0.0	0.2	0.9	1.6	0.8	0.1	0.0								3.6	5th
6th									0.3	1.4	2.1	1.1	0.2	0.0									5.1	6th
7th							0.0	0.3	1.9	3.1	1.6	0.3	0.0										7.3	7th
8th						0.0	0.7	2.7	4.1	2.0	0.3	0.0											9.9	8th
9th					0.1	1.4	4.1	5.2	2.5	0.4	0.0												13.8	9th
10th			0.0	0.6	3.0	6.2	5.7	2.4	0.4	0.0													18.3	10th
11th		0.2	2.1	5.3	6.8	4.9	1.7	0.3	0.0														21.3	11th
12th	1.0	3.5	4.8	4.0	1.9	0.4	0.0																15.6	12th

Total	1.0	3.7	6.9	9.9	11.8	13.0	12.2	11.0	9.2	7.1	5.1	3.7	2.4	1.4	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0				Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	100.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
17-3	74.9%	0.1		0.1	0.0	0.0
16-4	45.9%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0
15-5	23.5%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
14-6	4.9%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.9%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.3%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1	0.0%		100.0%		100.0%	6.1							0.0				0.0									100.0%
18-2	0.0%		71.0%	42.7%	28.3%	9.2							0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0						0.0		49.4%
17-3	0.1%		41.4%	33.1%	8.4%	9.5								0.0			0.0	0.0						0.1		12.5%
16-4	0.2%		18.7%	10.4%	8.3%	10.3										0.0	0.0	0.0						0.2		9.2%
15-5	0.4%		12.7%	10.8%	1.9%	10.9											0.0	0.0	0.0					0.4		2.2%
14-6	0.7%		3.3%	2.7%	0.5%	11.2												0.0	0.0					0.7		0.6%
13-7	1.4%		5.0%	5.0%		11.5												0.0	0.0	0.0				1.3
12-8	2.4%		3.0%	3.0%		11.6											0.0	0.0	0.0					2.3
11-9	3.7%		1.8%	1.7%	0.1%	11.6												0.0	0.0	0.0				3.7		0.1%
10-10	5.1%		0.5%	0.5%		12.0													0.0					5.1
9-11	7.1%		0.3%	0.3%		12.5													0.0	0.0				7.1
8-12	9.2%		0.1%	0.1%		12.5													0.0	0.0				9.2
7-13	11.0%		0.0%	0.0%		32.0																	0.0	11.0
6-14	12.2%		0.0%	0.0%		15.0																0.0		12.2
5-15	13.0%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	13.0
4-16	11.8%																							11.8
3-17	9.9%																							9.9
2-18	6.9%																							6.9
1-19	3.7%																							3.7
0-20	1.0%																							1.0

Total	100%		0.5%	0.4%	0.1%	11.4							0.0	0.0		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.0	0.0	99.5		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%