Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.3#114
Expected Predictive Rating+5.0#101
Pace65.4#288
Improvement+2.9#26

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#127
First Shot+2.4#111
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#242
Layup/Dunks-0.8#211
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#126
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#121
Freethrows+0.5#143
Improvement+3.8#4

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#107
First Shot+1.6#119
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#158
Layups/Dunks+3.1#73
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#222
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#201
Freethrows-0.9#243
Improvement-0.9#256
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.8% 22.1% 17.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 12.9
.500 or above 95.8% 97.5% 90.9%
.500 or above in Conference 92.9% 94.0% 89.7%
Conference Champion 29.1% 31.2% 23.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round20.8% 22.1% 17.1%
Second Round2.4% 2.7% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Quinnipiac (Home) - 74.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 33 - 4
Quad 36 - 58 - 9
Quad 412 - 220 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 57 @Central Florida L 78-82 19%     0 - 1 +8.5 +6.1 +2.5
  Fri, Nov 7 173 @Iona L 73-81 55%     0 - 2 -6.0 -3.4 -2.0
  Fri, Nov 14 304 @Bucknell W 83-77 78%     1 - 2 +1.1 +4.3 -3.5
  Wed, Nov 19 156 @Temple L 76-81 51%     1 - 3 -1.8 +1.2 -3.1
  Fri, Nov 28 240 La Salle W 63-58 77%     2 - 3 +0.7 -6.8 +7.7
  Sat, Nov 29 270 Merrimack W 78-58 81%     3 - 3 +14.2 +6.8 +8.3
  Sun, Nov 30 256 @Penn W 77-60 71%     4 - 3 +14.7 +5.5 +10.0
  Wed, Dec 3 135 @Columbia L 70-72 45%     4 - 4 +2.6 +3.7 -1.2
  Sun, Dec 7 106 @Pittsburgh W 80-73 37%     5 - 4 +13.9 +19.9 -5.1
  Sat, Dec 13 69 @Syracuse W 70-69 23%     6 - 4 +12.1 +17.7 -5.4
  Sun, Dec 21 168 Quinnipiac W 77-70 74%    
  Mon, Dec 29 229 Campbell W 78-68 83%    
  Sat, Jan 3 285 @Drexel W 71-64 74%    
  Thu, Jan 8 140 @Towson L 66-67 47%    
  Sat, Jan 10 221 Monmouth W 76-66 82%    
  Thu, Jan 15 198 @Stony Brook W 70-67 60%    
  Sat, Jan 17 191 Elon W 79-71 77%    
  Thu, Jan 22 302 @N.C. A&T W 76-68 77%    
  Sat, Jan 24 121 @William & Mary L 76-79 40%    
  Thu, Jan 29 171 College of Charleston W 74-67 75%    
  Sat, Jan 31 221 @Monmouth W 73-69 64%    
  Thu, Feb 5 215 Northeastern W 75-65 81%    
  Sat, Feb 7 140 Towson W 69-64 67%    
  Thu, Feb 12 171 @College of Charleston W 71-70 54%    
  Sat, Feb 14 108 @UNC Wilmington L 68-71 38%    
  Thu, Feb 19 232 Hampton W 73-63 82%    
  Sat, Feb 21 215 @Northeastern W 72-68 62%    
  Sat, Feb 28 198 Stony Brook W 73-64 78%    
  Tue, Mar 3 285 Drexel W 74-61 88%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 3.8 7.5 8.2 5.7 2.5 0.5 29.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 4.8 7.7 5.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 21.5 2nd
3rd 0.6 4.2 6.5 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 15.9 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 5.4 2.6 0.4 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 4.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.6 2.1 0.2 0.0 5.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 1.8 0.4 0.0 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.7 6.3 9.8 12.7 15.0 15.6 14.2 10.2 6.0 2.5 0.5 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.7% 2.5    2.4 0.1
16-2 94.9% 5.7    5.1 0.7 0.0
15-3 80.1% 8.2    5.8 2.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 52.8% 7.5    3.6 3.1 0.7 0.0
13-5 24.6% 3.8    1.0 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.6% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.1% 29.1 18.5 7.9 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 53.6% 53.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-1 2.5% 46.8% 46.7% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.3%
16-2 6.0% 36.4% 36.3% 0.1% 12.0 0.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.8 0.1%
15-3 10.2% 33.9% 33.9% 12.2 0.2 2.2 1.0 0.0 6.8
14-4 14.2% 28.7% 28.7% 12.5 0.1 2.1 1.7 0.2 10.1
13-5 15.6% 22.9% 22.9% 12.7 0.0 1.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 12.0
12-6 15.0% 18.7% 18.7% 13.0 0.7 1.6 0.5 0.0 12.2
11-7 12.7% 13.5% 13.5% 13.3 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 11.0
10-8 9.8% 9.0% 9.0% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.0
9-9 6.3% 6.5% 6.5% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.9
8-10 3.7% 5.0% 5.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.5
7-11 1.9% 2.7% 2.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.9
6-12 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.8% 20.8% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 8.5 8.0 2.3 0.4 0.1 79.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 10.0 4.3 5.8 5.8 13.0 18.8 46.4 5.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%