Kentucky
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.6#21
Expected Predictive Rating+9.7#65
Pace73.1#84
Improvement-0.7#231

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#35
First Shot+7.2#24
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#152
Layup/Dunks+8.0#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#257
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#154
Freethrows-0.1#186
Improvement-1.1#275

Defense
Total Defense+8.0#15
First Shot+6.5#26
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#78
Layups/Dunks+5.4#27
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#301
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#176
Freethrows+2.5#47
Improvement+0.4#153
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 1.2% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 3.0% 5.0% 1.5%
Top 4 Seed 16.6% 23.8% 10.8%
Top 6 Seed 38.2% 49.8% 29.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 73.3% 83.2% 65.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 71.2% 81.6% 63.2%
Average Seed 6.5 6.1 7.0
.500 or above 86.7% 93.6% 81.3%
.500 or above in Conference 70.6% 75.6% 66.7%
Conference Champion 8.0% 10.1% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.0% 1.7%
First Four6.5% 5.1% 7.6%
First Round70.6% 81.2% 62.4%
Second Round50.7% 60.2% 43.3%
Sweet Sixteen23.2% 29.3% 18.4%
Elite Eight9.3% 11.7% 7.4%
Final Four3.9% 5.2% 2.9%
Championship Game1.3% 1.9% 0.9%
National Champion0.5% 0.7% 0.3%

Next Game: St. John's (Neutral) - 44.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 104 - 10
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 12
Quad 25 - 111 - 13
Quad 31 - 013 - 14
Quad 47 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 236 Nicholls St. W 77-51 97%     1 - 0 +18.8 +2.3 +16.4
  Fri, Nov 7 211 Valparaiso W 107-59 97%     2 - 0 +41.7 +25.7 +12.9
  Tue, Nov 11 14 @Louisville L 88-96 31%     2 - 1 +12.6 +15.1 -1.9
  Fri, Nov 14 330 Eastern Illinois W 99-53 99%     3 - 1 +32.6 +25.0 +9.1
  Tue, Nov 18 11 Michigan St. L 66-83 40%     3 - 2 +1.1 +3.1 -1.7
  Fri, Nov 21 340 Loyola Maryland W 88-46 99%     4 - 2 +27.9 +4.1 +22.6
  Wed, Nov 26 261 Tennessee Tech W 104-54 98%     5 - 2 +41.4 +23.9 +15.7
  Tue, Dec 2 23 North Carolina L 64-67 62%     5 - 3 +9.5 +3.5 +5.7
  Fri, Dec 5 5 Gonzaga L 59-94 28%     5 - 4 -13.2 -4.1 -8.9
  Tue, Dec 9 350 NC Central W 103-67 99%     6 - 4 +20.8 +22.1 -2.2
  Sat, Dec 13 26 Indiana W 72-60 64%     7 - 4 +23.8 +8.3 +16.0
  Sat, Dec 20 18 St. John's L 78-80 44%    
  Tue, Dec 23 275 Bellarmine W 89-64 99%    
  Sat, Jan 3 16 @Alabama L 85-90 32%    
  Wed, Jan 7 49 Missouri W 83-75 77%    
  Sat, Jan 10 84 Mississippi St. W 83-71 86%    
  Wed, Jan 14 35 @LSU L 76-77 48%    
  Sat, Jan 17 15 @Tennessee L 71-76 32%    
  Wed, Jan 21 40 Texas W 80-74 72%    
  Sat, Jan 24 60 Mississippi W 78-68 81%    
  Tue, Jan 27 10 @Vanderbilt L 77-83 30%    
  Sat, Jan 31 20 @Arkansas L 78-81 39%    
  Wed, Feb 4 47 Oklahoma W 83-75 76%    
  Sat, Feb 7 15 Tennessee W 74-73 54%    
  Sat, Feb 14 13 @Florida L 75-80 32%    
  Tue, Feb 17 19 Georgia W 86-83 60%    
  Sat, Feb 21 28 @Auburn L 78-80 43%    
  Tue, Feb 24 86 @South Carolina W 76-70 72%    
  Sat, Feb 28 10 Vanderbilt W 80-79 52%    
  Tue, Mar 3 45 @Texas A&M W 81-80 55%    
  Sat, Mar 7 13 Florida W 78-77 52%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.6 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 8.0 1st
2nd 0.3 2.0 3.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 8.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 4.6 2.1 0.2 0.0 8.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.4 3.3 0.5 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.2 3.0 5.1 1.2 0.0 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 5.4 2.5 0.1 9.1 6th
7th 0.3 3.5 4.3 0.4 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 5.3 1.3 0.1 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.7 2.9 0.2 7.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.8 3.8 0.7 0.0 6.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 3.1 1.8 0.0 5.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.3 0.3 4.5 12th
13th 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.9 5.1 8.2 11.4 13.6 14.9 14.4 11.4 8.0 4.6 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 96.1% 0.8    0.7 0.1
15-3 85.3% 2.2    1.6 0.5 0.1
14-4 56.8% 2.6    1.1 1.1 0.4 0.0
13-5 21.7% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.0% 8.0 4.1 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 23.4% 76.6% 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.8% 100.0% 32.3% 67.7% 2.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 100.0%
15-3 2.6% 100.0% 22.9% 77.1% 2.8 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 100.0%
14-4 4.6% 100.0% 19.7% 80.3% 3.5 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 8.0% 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 4.3 0.1 0.3 1.6 2.5 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 11.4% 99.9% 13.1% 86.8% 5.2 0.1 0.9 2.1 3.8 2.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 14.4% 99.1% 8.1% 91.0% 6.3 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 3.9 3.7 1.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.0%
10-8 14.9% 94.8% 4.8% 90.0% 7.6 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 3.5 3.2 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.8 94.5%
9-9 13.6% 81.1% 2.8% 78.3% 9.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.3 0.1 2.6 80.6%
8-10 11.4% 44.0% 2.2% 41.7% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.2 0.2 0.0 6.4 42.7%
7-11 8.2% 12.8% 1.3% 11.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.1 7.1 11.6%
6-12 5.1% 2.2% 0.9% 1.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.0 1.3%
5-13 2.9% 0.5% 0.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 2.9
4-14 1.2% 1.2
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 73.3% 7.5% 65.8% 6.5 0.7 2.3 5.4 8.1 11.0 10.7 10.2 7.6 5.8 5.4 5.8 0.4 0.0 26.7 71.2%