IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	+15.3	#29
Expected Predictive Rating	+17.4	#24

Pace	71.5	#103
Improvement	-2.7	#301

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#17	B+	B+	A-	B-	B-
Defense	#53	B+	A-	D+	A	A

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	41%	#114	1.31	#41	+4.6	#39
2 Pt. Jumpers	17%	#252	0.84	#64	-0.6	#212
Three Pointers	42%	#161	1.13	#35	+2.8	#86
1st FG Attempt			1.15	#26	+6.7	#26
Freethrows	0.36	#36	68%	#302	0.25	#98
Second Chance	35.5%	#56	1.14	#48	0.41	#36
Turnovers					12.9%	#10
Total Offense					+10.1	#17

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	31%	#332	0.98	#14	+6.9	#15
2 Pt. Jumpers	29%	#12	0.65	#26	-1.7	#312
Three Pointers	40%	#231	1.02	#187	+0.6	#155
1st FG Attempt			0.90	#33	+5.9	#35
Freethrows	0.21	#3	71%	#92	0.15	#3
Second Chance	25.5%	#29	0.87	#18	0.22	#11
Turnovers					14.8%	#308
Total Defense					+5.2	#53

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	1.2%	#103	-3.1%	#15
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	11.8%	#31	-8.6%	#40
Possession Length	15.4	#30	19.0	#358
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.22	#63	0.10	#12
Improvement	+1.8	#89	-4.5	#353

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Top 2 Seed	0.3%	0.8%	0.1%
Top 4 Seed	9.7%	18.8%	5.7%
Top 6 Seed	43.4%	63.6%	34.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid	97.3%	99.4%	96.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	97.1%	99.4%	96.1%
Average Seed	6.8	6.0	7.2

.500 or above	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
.500 or above in Conference	93.9%	99.0%	91.6%
Conference Champion	0.3%	0.8%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	1.6%	0.2%	2.3%
First Round	96.6%	99.4%	95.4%
Second Round	63.0%	71.6%	59.3%
Sweet Sixteen	22.0%	28.5%	19.2%
Elite Eight	7.1%	8.8%	6.4%
Final Four	2.4%	2.8%	2.3%
Championship Game	0.6%	0.6%	0.7%
National Champion	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%

Next Game: Duke (Home) - 30.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

7 seed

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	4 - 5	4 - 5
Quad 1b	3 - 3	7 - 8
Quad 2	4 - 1	11 - 9
Quad 3	7 - 0	18 - 9
Quad 4	6 - 0	24 - 9

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Mon, Nov 3	208 Central Arkansas	W	94 - 54	96%	+24	1 - 0		+34	+12	B+	A+	B	+20	A+	C	A+
Fri, Nov 7	11 Kansas	W	87 - 74	48%	+2	2 - 0		+29	+22	A+	D+	C-	+6	B-	B	A+
Tue, Nov 11	232 Radford	W	89 - 74	97%	+11	3 - 0		+8	-1	D-	C	A	+7	A+	B+	F+
Fri, Nov 14	344 NC Central	W	97 - 53	99%	+20	4 - 0		+29	+17	C+	A+	A-	+12	A+	A	F
Tue, Nov 18	174 Navy	W	73 - 61	95%	+10	5 - 0		+8	+1	B	D-	C-	+7	A+	A+	F
Tue, Nov 25	133 St. Bonaventure	W	85 - 70	90%	+8	6 - 0		+17	+9	B+	A-	C	+7	A-	B+	F+
Thu, Nov 27	10 Michigan St.	L	58 - 74	34%	-4	6 - 1		+3	+6	C	C+	A	-5	C-	B	C-
Tue, Dec 2	26 @Kentucky	W	67 - 64	36%	-2	7 - 1		+22	+9	D+	A+	D+	+13	A+	A+	C-
Sun, Dec 7	78 Georgetown	W	81 - 61	84%	+7	8 - 1		+25	+9	A	D+	A	+15	A+	A+	F
Sat, Dec 13	301 South Carolina Upstate	W	80 - 62	98%	+8	9 - 1		+7	+12	B	C+	A+	-3	B-	C	F
Tue, Dec 16	132 East Tennessee St.	W	77 - 58	93%	+10	10 - 1		+18	+15	B	A	A+	+6	A+	B-	F+
Sat, Dec 20	36 Ohio St.	W	71 - 70	55%	+4	11 - 1		+15	+8	B-	B	A+	+7	A+	A+	F
Mon, Dec 22	249 East Carolina	W	99 - 51	97%	+24	12 - 1		+40	+17	A+	B	B	+20	A+	A+	A-
Tue, Dec 30	100 Florida St.	W	79 - 66	89%	+7	13 - 1	1 - 0	+15	+7	C-	B	A+	+8	A+	B-	C-
Sat, Jan 3	39 @SMU	L	83 - 97	45%	-5	13 - 2	1 - 1	+3	+16	A+	D-	A	-14	F	A+	F
Sat, Jan 10	75 Wake Forest	W	87 - 84	84%	+8	14 - 2	2 - 1	+8	+15	A-	A+	B-	-7	F+	B-	B+
Wed, Jan 14	82 @Stanford	L	90 - 95	70%	+5	14 - 3	2 - 2	+5	+18	A+	A+	A	-13	F	A+	F+
Sat, Jan 17	65 @California	L	78 - 84	64%	-11	14 - 4	2 - 3	+6	+11	A-	C+	C+	-5	C+	F	B+
Wed, Jan 21	81 Notre Dame	W	91 - 69	86%	+14	15 - 4	3 - 3	+26	+22	A+	A+	A-	+5	A+	B+	F
Sat, Jan 24	22 @Virginia	W	85 - 80	34%	-4	16 - 4	4 - 3	+25	+23	A+	D+	A+	+1	A-	C	C+
Sat, Jan 31	113 @Georgia Tech	W	91 - 75	80%	+12	17 - 4	5 - 3	+22	+21	C+	A+	A+	+1	B	C	C-
Mon, Feb 2	69 Syracuse	W	87 - 77	83%	+14	18 - 4	6 - 3	+15	+14	A+	C	A	+1	C	A+	D+
Sat, Feb 7	3 Duke	L	74 - 79	31%
Tue, Feb 10	40 @Miami (FL)	L	80 - 81	48%
Sat, Feb 14	94 Pittsburgh	W	81 - 68	88%
Tue, Feb 17	23 @North Carolina St.	L	79 - 83	34%
Sat, Feb 21	69 @Syracuse	W	81 - 77	65%
Mon, Feb 23	16 Louisville	W	83 - 82	52%
Sat, Feb 28	58 Virginia Tech	W	83 - 74	80%
Tue, Mar 3	37 Clemson	W	74 - 70	66%
Sat, Mar 7	3 @Duke	L	71 - 82	14%
Totals						23 - 8	11 - 7	+15	+10	B+	B+	A-	+5	B+	A-	D+

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0	Total
1st														0.0	0.2	0.1				0.3	1st
2nd													0.1	1.2	1.4	0.1				2.8	2nd
3rd												0.0	1.5	3.8	1.0					6.2	3rd
4th												0.9	7.4	3.4	0.1					11.9	4th
5th										0.0	0.5	8.0	9.1	0.7						18.3	5th
6th										0.2	5.4	12.3	1.7							19.6	6th
7th									0.1	2.7	10.6	4.3	0.0							17.6	7th
8th									0.7	6.1	5.5	0.4								12.7	8th
9th								0.1	2.1	4.0	0.6									6.7	9th
10th								0.3	1.9	0.7	0.0									2.9	10th
11th								0.5	0.3	0.0										0.8	11th
12th							0.0	0.2	0.0											0.2	12th
13th							0.1	0.0												0.1	13th
14th																					14th
15th																					15th
16th																					16th
17th																					17th
18th																					18th

Total							0.1	1.0	5.1	13.7	22.6	25.9	19.8	9.0	2.6	0.2					Total

Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3	45.0%	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
14-4	5.7%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0
13-5	0.1%	0.0					0.0
12-6	0.0%
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.3%	0.3	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3	0.2%	100.0%	10.0%	90.0%	3.4		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0													100.0%
14-4	2.6%	100.0%	13.7%	86.3%	3.8	0.0	0.1	0.8	1.1	0.5	0.1												100.0%
13-5	9.0%	100.0%	11.3%	88.7%	4.7	0.0	0.1	1.1	2.6	3.3	1.6	0.3	0.0										100.0%
12-6	19.8%	100.0%	6.7%	93.3%	5.6	0.0		0.6	2.2	5.8	7.1	3.3	0.7	0.1									100.0%
11-7	25.9%	99.7%	4.2%	95.4%	6.6			0.1	0.5	3.4	7.6	8.7	4.4	1.1	0.1	0.0						0.1	99.7%
10-8	22.6%	98.2%	3.6%	94.6%	7.6			0.0	0.1	0.7	3.1	5.7	7.4	4.2	0.8	0.1						0.4	98.1%
9-9	13.7%	95.0%	2.1%	92.8%	8.6					0.1	0.4	1.5	3.7	4.6	2.3	0.4						0.7	94.9%
8-10	5.1%	78.2%	1.0%	77.3%	9.7						0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.7	0.9						1.1	78.0%
7-11	1.0%	57.7%	1.0%	56.7%	10.4							0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3						0.4	57.3%
6-12	0.1%															0.0						0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%	97.3%	5.0%	92.3%	6.8																	2.8	97.1%