Preseason Rankings
North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.9#31
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.9#292
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.7#29
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#34
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.3% 2.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 5.8% 5.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 16.5% 16.6% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 30.5% 30.7% 2.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 64.5% 64.8% 22.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 61.8% 62.1% 22.6%
Average Seed 6.6 6.6 8.8
.500 or above 88.1% 88.4% 49.1%
.500 or above in Conference 77.4% 77.6% 43.9%
Conference Champion 9.2% 9.2% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 1.2% 8.4%
First Four6.0% 6.0% 6.5%
First Round61.7% 61.9% 20.0%
Second Round41.6% 41.8% 10.4%
Sweet Sixteen18.4% 18.5% 1.3%
Elite Eight7.9% 7.9% 0.0%
Final Four3.3% 3.3% 0.0%
Championship Game1.3% 1.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.0%

Next Game: NC Central (Home) - 99.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 7
Quad 26 - 311 - 10
Quad 36 - 116 - 10
Quad 44 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 329   NC Central W 83-56 99%    
  Nov 07, 2025 102   UAB W 79-67 87%    
  Nov 12, 2025 225   UNC Greensboro W 75-55 97%    
  Nov 17, 2025 58   Virginia Commonwealth W 70-63 74%    
  Nov 24, 2025 101   Seton Hall W 69-60 79%    
  Dec 03, 2025 22   @ Auburn L 68-73 33%    
  Dec 06, 2025 184   UNC Asheville W 81-62 95%    
  Dec 10, 2025 97   Liberty W 73-61 85%    
  Dec 13, 2025 13   Kansas L 69-70 48%    
  Dec 17, 2025 285   Texas Southern W 82-58 98%    
  Dec 20, 2025 30   Mississippi L 69-70 50%    
  Dec 31, 2025 67   Wake Forest W 73-65 75%    
  Jan 03, 2026 46   Virginia W 65-60 66%    
  Jan 06, 2026 100   @ Boston College W 72-66 69%    
  Jan 10, 2026 78   @ Florida St. W 74-70 62%    
  Jan 17, 2026 83   Georgia Tech W 75-65 81%    
  Jan 20, 2026 42   @ Clemson L 65-67 45%    
  Jan 24, 2026 77   @ Pittsburgh W 71-67 62%    
  Jan 27, 2026 64   Syracuse W 76-68 74%    
  Jan 31, 2026 67   @ Wake Forest W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 03, 2026 44   @ SMU L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 07, 2026 76   Virginia Tech W 73-63 78%    
  Feb 09, 2026 11   @ Louisville L 69-76 28%    
  Feb 14, 2026 56   Miami (FL) W 75-68 72%    
  Feb 17, 2026 25   North Carolina W 75-73 56%    
  Feb 24, 2026 46   @ Virginia L 62-63 47%    
  Feb 28, 2026 63   @ Notre Dame W 68-66 56%    
  Mar 02, 2026 3   Duke L 66-71 33%    
  Mar 07, 2026 95   Stanford W 74-62 83%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.6 2.9 1.8 0.5 9.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.7 3.2 1.0 0.1 12.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.9 2.9 0.5 0.0 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 2.0 4.7 2.9 0.4 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.0 3.1 0.6 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.3 3.0 3.6 0.9 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 3.9 1.5 0.1 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.9 2.4 0.2 5.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 3.1 0.7 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.6 1.4 0.1 4.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 4.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.9 0.0 3.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.4 0.2 3.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.4 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.0 5.8 7.9 9.5 11.2 11.8 12.0 11.1 9.2 6.3 4.0 1.8 0.5 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 96.9% 1.8    1.5 0.3
16-2 73.8% 2.9    1.9 1.0 0.1 0.0
15-3 41.2% 2.6    1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0
14-4 12.3% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 5.1 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 100.0% 39.9% 60.1% 1.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.8% 100.0% 36.0% 64.0% 1.9 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.0% 100.0% 28.2% 71.8% 2.6 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.3% 99.9% 20.2% 79.8% 3.7 0.3 1.0 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-4 9.2% 99.2% 15.2% 84.1% 5.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.9 2.0 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.1%
13-5 11.1% 97.6% 9.3% 88.4% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.3 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.3 97.4%
12-6 12.0% 92.7% 6.0% 86.8% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.2 2.4 1.8 1.2 0.3 0.9 92.3%
11-7 11.8% 78.8% 4.0% 74.8% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 2.0 2.2 2.1 0.6 0.0 2.5 77.9%
10-8 11.2% 58.9% 1.7% 57.2% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.3 0.9 0.0 4.6 58.2%
9-9 9.5% 37.2% 1.0% 36.2% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 0.9 0.0 6.0 36.5%
8-10 7.9% 14.7% 0.5% 14.3% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.0 6.7 14.3%
7-11 5.8% 4.0% 0.4% 3.7% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.5 3.7%
6-12 4.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.1%
5-13 2.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.2%
4-14 1.4% 1.4
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 64.5% 7.2% 57.3% 6.6 2.3 3.5 5.0 5.7 6.5 7.5 7.2 7.7 7.7 8.0 3.3 0.1 0.0 35.5 61.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 87.5 12.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 83.1 16.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 77.7 22.3