North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.3#29
Expected Predictive Rating+9.7#66
Pace72.7#94
Improvement-1.1#261

Offense
Total Offense+9.5#18
First Shot+8.7#16
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#124
Layup/Dunks+2.9#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#255
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#47
Freethrows+2.3#59
Improvement-2.5#341

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#50
First Shot+2.0#107
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#22
Layups/Dunks+5.5#26
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#96
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#335
Freethrows+0.0#181
Improvement+1.3#89
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.1% 1.5% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 8.2% 10.2% 3.6%
Top 6 Seed 25.0% 29.1% 15.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 75.0% 80.0% 63.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 73.2% 78.5% 61.9%
Average Seed 7.4 7.2 7.9
.500 or above 96.2% 98.2% 91.8%
.500 or above in Conference 87.0% 88.9% 82.7%
Conference Champion 6.9% 7.8% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four5.8% 5.2% 7.3%
First Round72.2% 77.7% 60.2%
Second Round45.6% 49.9% 36.0%
Sweet Sixteen16.0% 18.0% 11.6%
Elite Eight6.3% 7.0% 4.6%
Final Four2.3% 2.5% 1.8%
Championship Game0.7% 0.9% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Mississippi (Neutral) - 68.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 45 - 9
Quad 26 - 311 - 12
Quad 35 - 017 - 12
Quad 44 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 350 NC Central W 114-65 99%     1 - 0 +33.8 +31.4 +0.5
  Fri, Nov 7 112 UAB W 94-70 90%     2 - 0 +24.4 +14.4 +8.6
  Wed, Nov 12 291 UNC Greensboro W 110-64 98%     3 - 0 +35.9 +24.9 +8.4
  Mon, Nov 17 50 Virginia Commonwealth W 85-79 73%     4 - 0 +13.9 +12.8 +0.8
  Mon, Nov 24 58 Seton Hall L 74-85 67%     4 - 1 -1.3 +4.3 -5.0
  Tue, Nov 25 46 Boise St. W 81-70 62%     5 - 1 +22.2 +15.5 +6.6
  Wed, Nov 26 40 Texas L 97-102 57%     5 - 2 +7.4 +25.6 -18.1
  Wed, Dec 3 28 @Auburn L 73-83 38%     5 - 3 +7.4 +5.6 +1.8
  Sat, Dec 6 219 UNC Asheville W 75-63 96%     6 - 3 +5.4 +0.7 +5.2
  Wed, Dec 10 107 Liberty W 85-45 89%     7 - 3 +40.8 +14.7 +27.7
  Sat, Dec 13 17 Kansas L 76-77 OT 50%     7 - 4 +13.2 +7.4 +5.9
  Wed, Dec 17 321 Texas Southern W 108-72 99%     8 - 4 +23.4 +28.0 -5.2
  Sun, Dec 21 60 Mississippi W 78-73 69%    
  Wed, Dec 31 53 Wake Forest W 83-76 75%    
  Sat, Jan 3 25 Virginia W 80-78 59%    
  Tue, Jan 6 150 @Boston College W 79-68 84%    
  Sat, Jan 10 122 @Florida St. W 89-81 78%    
  Sat, Jan 17 128 Georgia Tech W 85-70 92%    
  Tue, Jan 20 37 @Clemson L 73-74 47%    
  Sat, Jan 24 102 @Pittsburgh W 79-72 74%    
  Tue, Jan 27 72 Syracuse W 82-72 81%    
  Sat, Jan 31 53 @Wake Forest W 80-79 54%    
  Tue, Feb 3 42 @SMU L 81-82 48%    
  Sat, Feb 7 64 Virginia Tech W 84-75 79%    
  Mon, Feb 9 14 @Louisville L 80-86 29%    
  Sat, Feb 14 33 Miami (FL) W 82-78 65%    
  Tue, Feb 17 23 North Carolina W 80-78 57%    
  Tue, Feb 24 25 @Virginia L 77-81 38%    
  Sat, Feb 28 56 @Notre Dame W 76-74 56%    
  Mon, Mar 2 2 Duke L 75-80 31%    
  Sat, Mar 7 88 Stanford W 86-75 85%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.4 2.0 0.9 0.1 6.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.1 3.0 0.5 0.0 12.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.8 6.0 2.9 0.3 12.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 6.0 3.4 0.3 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.9 4.7 0.8 11.1 5th
6th 0.2 2.7 5.3 1.5 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.6 2.7 0.1 8.5 7th
8th 0.2 3.1 3.6 0.4 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 3.6 1.1 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.3 2.3 2.0 0.1 0.0 4.7 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 14th
15th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.7 3.8 6.4 10.4 13.0 15.5 15.5 13.8 9.6 5.7 2.6 0.9 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 98.5% 0.9    0.8 0.1
16-2 79.9% 2.0    1.4 0.6 0.0
15-3 42.0% 2.4    0.9 1.0 0.4 0.1
14-4 12.3% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.9% 6.9 3.4 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 1.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.9% 100.0% 21.6% 78.4% 2.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.6% 100.0% 20.6% 79.4% 3.7 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.7% 99.9% 15.4% 84.5% 4.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-4 9.6% 100.0% 11.9% 88.0% 5.7 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.4 2.7 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.8% 98.7% 10.9% 87.8% 6.7 0.1 0.5 2.1 3.3 4.0 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.5%
12-6 15.5% 95.6% 6.7% 88.9% 7.7 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.7 4.4 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.7 95.3%
11-7 15.5% 86.3% 3.8% 82.5% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.4 4.1 2.9 0.7 2.1 85.7%
10-8 13.0% 68.0% 2.4% 65.6% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.2 3.2 1.6 0.0 4.2 67.2%
9-9 10.4% 41.4% 1.7% 39.7% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.8 0.1 6.1 40.4%
8-10 6.4% 16.5% 0.9% 15.6% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 5.3 15.8%
7-11 3.8% 3.4% 0.9% 2.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.6 2.5%
6-12 1.7% 2.0% 0.8% 1.2% 11.0 0.0 1.7 1.2%
5-13 0.9% 0.9
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 75.0% 6.5% 68.5% 7.4 0.3 0.8 2.3 4.8 7.2 9.6 12.0 12.6 11.0 9.0 5.1 0.2 25.0 73.2%