Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.6 329
Expected Predictive Rating -8.1 298
Pace 70.2 133
Improvement -1.9 259

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- 348 D D F C B
Defense C- 251 D C- C D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 143 D- 51% 334 -2.1 261
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 306 D+ 35% 262 -3.2 331
Three Pointers 47% 55 D+ 31% 291 +1.2 137
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.0 52 D- -4.9 332
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 305
Second Chance C+ 31.5% 154 F 0.81 363 D 0.25 307
Turnovers F 22.2% 362
Freethrows B 0.34 70 F+ 66% 353 C 0.22 161
Total Offense D- -8.2 348

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 39 D 63% 321 +5.7 347
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 311 C- 39% 225 -1.4 83
Three Pointers 39% 233 C 34% 176 -0.8 146
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.9 334 D+ +2.4 272
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 292
Second Chance C- 32.2% 255 C- 1.06 242 C- 0.34 256
Turnovers C 17.3% 153
Freethrows D+ 0.34 282 C 72% 162 D+ 0.24 265
Total Defense C- -2.4 251

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.9 244 16.5 53
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 253 0.22 327
Improvement -6.0 #359 +4.1 #24

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 50% 22% 55%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Away) - 14.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 30 - 81 - 14
Quad 47 - 67 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 355 Louisiana Monroe W 102 - 82 75% +10  80% 1 - 0 C+ +2 A- +10 D+ A+ F F+ -9 F F+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 26 @Wisconsin L 72 - 97 1% -19  0% 1 - 1 D+ -7 C -0 A+ F F D+ -5 B- F C
 Mon, Nov 10 65 @Grand Canyon L 59 - 88 3% -17  3% 1 - 2 F+ -18 F+ -9 D B F D- -7 D- F A-
 Tue, Nov 18 91 @Northern Iowa L 57 - 70 5% -3  26% 1 - 3 C- -4 D+ -3 B D+ F C- -3 F C A+
 Fri, Nov 21 283 @Loyola Chicago W 76 - 59 26% +9  85% 2 - 3 B+ +13 B+ +9 B+ B F+ B+ +7 C- A- B
 Tue, Nov 25 150 @Austin Peay L 59 - 77 10% -7  12% 2 - 4 F+ -15 F+ -9 F D+ B- D -7 F D- C-
 Tue, Dec 2 257 Lindenwood L 64 - 99 41% -22  4% 2 - 5 F -43 F -17 D+ F F F -24 C F F
 Sat, Dec 6 114 @Bradley L 55 - 84 7% -14  8% 2 - 6 F -23 F -19 F C+ F C- -3 F C+ C-
 Sat, Dec 13 207 @Elon L 79 - 85 15% +4  90% 2 - 7 D+ -6 C -0 D+ C- D- D -5 D+ A D-
 Sat, Dec 20 272 Central Michigan W 74 - 73 45% -10  3% 3 - 7 1 - 0 D -8 D+ -3 F+ A F D+ -5 C F B-
 Wed, Dec 31 201 Buffalo L 67 - 81 31% -7  16% 3 - 8 1 - 1 F -19 F -12 F+ F D- D- -8 D F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 146 @Kent St. L 73 - 77 10% -9  0% 3 - 9 1 - 2 C -0 D -5 B+ C- F B +4 B- B+ C
 Tue, Jan 6 171 Toledo L 61 - 75 25% -11  4% 3 - 10 1 - 3 F -18 F -20 D D- F B- +2 D+ A+ B
 Tue, Jan 13 247 @Eastern Michigan L 59 - 77 20% -3  44% 3 - 11 1 - 4 F -20 F -17 F+ F D- C- -2 D+ A F+
 Sat, Jan 17 179 Massachusetts W 70 - 68 27% +3  75% 4 - 11 2 - 4 C- -2 F -11 F D D A- +9 A A- A+
 Tue, Jan 20 211 @Ohio L 77 - 80 16% -5  15% 4 - 12 2 - 5 C- -3 C- -2 B F F C -1 D+ D B+
 Sat, Jan 24 314 @Ball St. L 53 - 58 33% -6  0% 4 - 13 2 - 6 D -11 F -14 F C+ C C+ +2 D+ C- D-
 Tue, Jan 27 282 Western Michigan W 85 - 65 47% +12  99% 5 - 13 3 - 6 B +10 A+ +15 A+ B+ D+ C- -2 C+ B C+
 Sat, Jan 31 87 @Miami (OH) L 61 - 85 4% -3  44% 5 - 14 3 - 7 F+ -14 F -15 C- F F C+ +2 C A+ D-
 Sat, Feb 7 286 @Georgia St. W 75 - 74 27% -1  38% 6 - 14 C- -3 D+ -2 B- F D+ C -1 D- A- F+
 Wed, Feb 11 155 Bowling Green L 52 - 68 23% -15  1% 6 - 15 3 - 8 F -19 F -23 F F C B- +4 D+ B A
 Sat, Feb 14 272 @Central Michigan L 46 - 88 24% -25  0% 6 - 16 3 - 9 F -45 F -31 F F F F -15 F F D-
 Tue, Feb 17 201 @Buffalo L 68 - 79 15%
 Sat, Feb 21 211 Ohio L 72 - 77 33%
 Tue, Feb 24 171 @Toledo L 69 - 82 11%
 Sat, Feb 28 314 Ball St. W 67 - 66 55%
 Tue, Mar 3 146 Kent St. L 72 - 80 22%
 Fri, Mar 6 78 @Akron L 68 - 89 3%
Totals 7 - 21 4 - 14 -11 D- -8 C- D- B C- -2 D+ F+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- D- D+ D+ D- 40% 27% 47% B D C+ F D F B F+ C C- D C- C D+ 44% 16% 39% D D C- C- C- C D+ C D+
0.97 51% 35% 31% -5 +1 0.94 31% 0.8 .25 22% .34 66% .22 1.12 63% 39% 34% +2 +1 1.09 32% 1.1 .34 17% .34 72% .25
Nov
3		 Louisiana Monroe A- F+ A+ C+ D- 51% 4% 45% A D+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ B A+ F+ C- F F F 40% 20% 40% D+ F B+ F F+ C D C- D
1.36 52% 100% 36% +1 +3 1.10 61% 1.6 1.00 24% .46 73% .33 1.09 55% 50% 40% +5 0 1.12 19% 1.7 .32 17% .36 73% .26
Nov
7		 Wisconsin C C+ A+ B+ A+ 42% 14% 44% A A+ F+ F F F A+ D A+ D+ F F A C+ 29% 14% 57% B B- F F F C F C+ F
0.98 56% 83% 37% +7 +1 1.19 16% 0.5 .08 23% .55 68% .37 1.32 80% 57% 28% +4 0 1.10 42% 1.4 .58 12% .57 76% .43
Nov
10		 Grand Canyon F+ F F A+ D- 36% 25% 39% C+ D D+ A+ B F A A A+ D- C- A+ F D- 43% 16% 41% D+ D- F F F A- C F F
0.82 31% 18% 41% -10 -1 0.80 23% 1.6 .35 29% .41 81% .33 1.22 62% 13% 45% +4 +1 1.12 54% 1.4 .73 21% .33 95% .32
Nov
18		 Northern Iowa D+ F A+ A+ C+ 54% 5% 41% A+ B B- F D+ F A D B+ C- F F D+ F 48% 10% 43% D- F F A+ C A+ F B- F
0.92 41% 50% 41% -4 +3 1.00 27% 0.6 .17 24% .34 69% .23 1.13 74% 50% 35% +9 +2 1.25 31% 0.8 .23 24% .51 67% .34
Nov
21		 Loyola Chicago B+ C D- A B 32% 12% 56% B B+ A+ F B F+ F B- F B+ B- A+ F+ C- 45% 6% 49% F+ C- A B- A- B A+ A+ A+
1.24 56% 33% 43% +6 +1 1.16 46% 0.8 .38 16% .19 80% .16 0.96 52% 0% 39% -1 +2 1.04 24% 0.9 .21 21% .14 57% .08
Nov
25		 Austin Peay F+ A+ C- F F 38% 21% 40% C- F C- D+ D+ B- B- F F D F B F F 36% 14% 50% D+ F D- D+ D- C- F A+ C-
0.91 75% 36% 10% -9 0 0.85 29% 0.7 .20 17% .32 41% .13 1.19 75% 33% 41% +11 +1 1.25 33% 1.2 .41 15% .40 59% .24
Dec
2		 Lindenwood F F A+ A+ D- 57% 9% 35% A- D+ B- F F F A+ F B F A B D+ B- 59% 13% 28% F C F F F F F D F
0.86 38% 50% 44% -5 +3 0.98 35% 0.3 .09 24% .53 50% .27 1.33 47% 29% 33% -8 +2 0.91 50% 1.7 .83 13% .44 71% .31
Dec
6		 Bradley F F F F F 36% 17% 47% A- F A F+ C+ F A+ F D C- F+ C- D F+ 41% 15% 44% F+ F A- F C+ C- C+ D C
0.76 47% 13% 18% -19 0 0.64 40% 0.8 .33 25% .44 46% .20 1.16 68% 38% 38% +6 +1 1.17 20% 1.3 .27 14% .30 79% .24
Dec
13		 Elon C F+ F B+ D- 35% 8% 57% B+ D+ C+ D- C- D- A+ B- A+ D F F A+ C- 57% 10% 33% D- D+ D+ A+ A D- F D+ F
1.12 47% 0% 39% -2 +1 1.00 34% 1.0 .34 18% .47 74% .35 1.20 71% 60% 19% +2 +3 1.12 34% 0.6 .22 13% .53 73% .39
Dec
20		 Central Michigan D+ C- A+ F F 51% 5% 44% A F+ B+ A- A F A+ B A+ D+ C+ F A+ B 53% 8% 39% F C F F F B- B- A+ A-
1.12 57% 50% 22% -8 +3 0.93 41% 1.3 .55 24% .68 74% .50 1.10 56% 75% 25% -4 +3 1.00 41% 1.3 .53 20% .24 54% .13
Dec
31		 Buffalo F B+ A F F 38% 4% 58% B+ F+ D+ F F D- B- A+ A- D- C- A F D 43% 15% 43% D+ D F F F A- F B+ D-
0.98 68% 50% 24% -4 +2 0.98 30% 0.6 .18 21% .29 88% .26 1.19 60% 29% 45% +6 +1 1.17 34% 1.3 .44 21% .42 70% .29
Jan
3		 Kent St. D C F+ A+ A- 29% 17% 55% D+ B+ A F C- F A+ F A+ B D- F A+ B- 38% 18% 44% C B- C- A+ B+ C F D F
1.00 58% 29% 43% +6 0 1.14 40% 0.7 .29 30% .59 60% .35 1.05 65% 50% 20% -5 0 0.93 35% 0.8 .30 19% .68 78% .52
Jan
6		 Toledo F D F C- F+ 38% 2% 60% B+ D C F D- F D+ F D B- B- F F C- 58% 19% 23% F D+ B+ A+ A+ B D A+ C+
0.86 53% 0% 33% -3 +2 1.00 34% 0.8 .26 30% .22 64% .14 1.05 53% 60% 42% +4 +2 1.13 24% 0.5 .12 18% .33 63% .21
Jan
13		 Eastern Michigan F A- F F F 35% 16% 49% C F+ D- F F D- C+ F D- C- F C- A+ D 36% 36% 28% A- D+ A+ C- A F+ C+ F C-
0.81 67% 13% 24% -8 0 0.86 23% 0.5 .11 19% .32 58% .19 1.06 76% 38% 25% +3 -2 1.03 15% 1.0 .15 14% .24 80% .19
Jan
17		 Massachusetts F D- F F F 43% 2% 55% A F A F D D A+ D+ A A- A- A B+ A+ 49% 15% 36% F A B A A- A+ F D+ F
0.96 52% 0% 26% -10 +3 0.88 38% 0.6 .23 19% .51 70% .36 0.93 48% 29% 29% -9 +1 0.87 28% 1.0 .28 25% .55 70% .38
Jan
20		 Ohio C- F A A+ B- 45% 14% 41% B B C- F F F A+ C A+ C D- A F+ D+ 42% 25% 33% C- D+ B F D B+ F D+ F
1.06 40% 50% 50% +3 +1 1.11 32% 0.6 .19 23% .48 74% .36 1.10 65% 33% 38% +4 0 1.08 24% 1.4 .34 19% .42 72% .31
Jan
24		 Ball St. F C- A+ F F 27% 18% 56% C- F D A+ C+ C A- D+ B+ C+ D- A+ A+ C- 49% 12% 40% F D+ A F C- D- D- A+ C
0.89 58% 50% 8% -19 0 0.62 29% 1.3 .38 18% .35 76% .27 0.97 62% 20% 24% -6 +2 0.93 17% 1.4 .24 13% .35 61% .21
Jan
27		 Western Michigan A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 8% 56% B- A+ A+ F B+ D+ F F F C- B- A C- C+ 34% 17% 49% D+ C+ F A+ B C+ F F F
1.40 50% 75% 50% +14 +1 1.32 50% 0.9 .44 15% .19 60% .12 1.07 50% 29% 35% -4 0 0.95 42% 0.6 .25 18% .54 81% .44
Jan
31		 Miami (OH) F A- D+ F D+ 39% 16% 45% B C- F F F F C+ F F+ C+ D- F A+ C+ 42% 12% 46% D C D- A+ A+ D- C+ D+ C
0.83 70% 38% 26% -1 +1 1.02 17% 0.5 .09 23% .30 53% .16 1.16 71% 71% 27% +5 +1 1.14 29% 0.5 .14 12% .31 80% .25
Feb
7		 Georgia St. D+ F A+ A+ C+ 45% 12% 43% B B- F F+ F D+ A C+ A- C F A+ A+ D- 38% 27% 35% D D- C A+ A- F+ F B+ F
1.05 41% 50% 48% +3 +2 1.10 18% 0.8 .15 18% .38 73% .27 1.03 78% 23% 24% -2 -1 0.96 27% 0.7 .19 13% .53 73% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
11		 Bowling Green F F+ B F F 37% 14% 49% C+ F F D+ F C D- C+ D B- D+ D C+ D+ 56% 14% 30% D D+ A+ F+ B A A+ F A-
0.75 47% 43% 16% -16 +1 0.71 17% 1.0 .17 19% .26 73% .19 0.98 61% 43% 33% +2 +2 1.10 17% 1.0 .17 22% .20 82% .16
Feb
14		 Central Michigan F F F F F 40% 20% 40% D+ F D+ F F F A+ F C- F D F F F 54% 28% 19% D- F C- F F D- A C- A
0.67 44% 22% 22% -16 0 0.71 33% 0.1 .04 25% .53 44% .23 1.29 62% 60% 60% +16 0 1.33 29% 1.6 .46 15% .17 70% .12



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 3.0 5.9 0.9 9.9 9th
10th 2.5 14.2 3.8 0.1 20.6 10th
11th 0.2 12.6 9.8 0.3 22.9 11th
12th 3.6 18.1 1.9 23.6 12th
13th 15.0 5.9 0.1 21.0 13th
Total 18.8 39.1 28.9 10.8 2.2 0.2 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10 0.2% 0.2
7-11 2.2% 2.2
6-12 10.8% 10.8
5-13 28.9% 28.9
4-14 39.1% 39.1
3-15 18.8% 18.8
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 18.8%