Pepperdine
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.0 #283
Expected Predictive Rating -9.2 #314
Pace 67.7 #216
Improvement -1.1 #236

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #318 D+ D D+ C C-
Defense #219 C C- C B F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #258 1.12 #232 -2.4 #264
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #138 0.76 #165 +0.8 #136
Three Pointers 42% #166 0.92 #296 -1.5 #239
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #268 -3.1 #269
Freethrows 0.28 #256 77% #24 0.22 #180
Second Chance 28.5% #244 0.87 #346 0.25 #316
Turnovers 18.7% #303
Total Offense -5.7 #318

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #83 1.16 #179 -2.3 #261
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #360 0.75 #174 +3.0 #6
Three Pointers 45% #70 0.96 #101 -0.7 #218
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #182 -0.1 #182
Freethrows 0.25 #39 74% #260 0.18 #55
Second Chance 32.2% #252 1.05 #224 0.34 #249
Turnovers 16.4% #195
Total Defense -1.3 #219

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #249 2.6% #356
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.3% #267 -2.3% #140
Possession Length 18.1 #258 17.0 #151
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #358 0.15 #120
Improvement +0.3 #159 -1.4 #265

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 87.9% 71.9% 90.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seattle (Away) - 12.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 31 - 101 - 18
Quad 44 - 66 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 35 @UCLA L 63 - 74 2% -10  0 - 1 +6 +5 D A+ C -1 B F+ B-
 Sat, Nov 15 193 Northern Colorado L 81 - 88 OT 43% -5  0 - 2 -12 -8 D F C- -3 C D A+
 Tue, Nov 18 216 New Orleans W 90 - 79 47% +6  1 - 2 +5 +7 B- F+ A+ -3 C C A-
 Fri, Nov 21 106 Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 63 22% +3  1 - 3 -2 -8 D+ D F +6 A- F B-
 Wed, Nov 26 145 Fresno St. L 53 - 76 23% -7  1 - 4 -22 -15 F C F -7 D F+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 224 @Cal St. Fullerton L 69 - 83 27% -5  1 - 5 -15 -3 F F+ C+ -11 C- F D-
 Tue, Dec 2 270 Abilene Christian L 63 - 71 58% -8  1 - 6 -17 -4 D- F A- -14 D- C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 211 Vermont L 56 - 65 46% -1  1 - 7 -15 -14 F+ F F -2 D+ A- B
 Sat, Dec 13 319 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 70 - 62 49% +4  2 - 7 +1 -3 B+ F F +5 A- A+ B
 Thu, Dec 18 255 @Long Beach St. L 78 - 81 33% +2  2 - 8 -5 +4 A A F -9 F C D-
 Sat, Dec 20 233 Rice W 84 - 62 50% +8  3 - 8 +15 +5 A C F +10 A+ C- C+
 Sun, Dec 28 11 Gonzaga L 56 - 96 2% -22  3 - 9 0 - 1 -23 -9 D- B C+ -14 D+ B C-
 Tue, Dec 30 42 St. Mary's L 45 - 72 8% -12  3 - 10 0 - 2 -18 -16 F+ D+ F -5 D+ B- C
 Fri, Jan 2 46 @Santa Clara L 63 - 82 3% -7  3 - 11 0 - 3 -4 -7 F+ C F+ +4 C- A+ C
 Sun, Jan 4 124 @Pacific L 69 - 74 13% -3  3 - 12 0 - 4 +0 +2 C D C- -2 D+ F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 201 @San Diego L 63 - 83 24% -12  3 - 13 0 - 5 -20 -7 D F D- -13 F D D+
 Sat, Jan 10 97 San Francisco L 60 - 80 19% -12  3 - 14 0 - 6 -18 -9 F D A -10 F+ C+ B-
 Wed, Jan 14 232 Portland W 67 - 63 50% +0  4 - 14 1 - 6 -3 -6 D+ B- D+ +3 B+ A- D+
 Wed, Jan 21 11 @Gonzaga L 60 - 84 1% -15  4 - 15 1 - 7 -1 -1 C- C+ C- -0 A+ F F+
 Sat, Jan 24 122 @Washington St. L 79 - 95 12% -12  4 - 16 1 - 8 -10 +5 A F F -16 F+ F C-
 Wed, Jan 28 201 San Diego L 88 - 92 OT 44% +3  4 - 17 1 - 9 -10 +1 C- D- A+ -10 A- F D
 Wed, Feb 4 125 @Seattle L 60 - 72 12%
 Sat, Feb 7 124 Pacific L 66 - 72 27%
 Wed, Feb 11 42 @St. Mary's L 57 - 79 2%
 Sat, Feb 14 169 Loyola Marymount L 67 - 70 38%
 Wed, Feb 18 232 @Portland L 69 - 75 29%
 Sat, Feb 21 184 @Oregon St. L 65 - 73 21%
 Wed, Feb 25 125 Seattle L 63 - 69 28%
 Sat, Feb 28 122 Washington St. L 70 - 77 27%
Totals 6 - 23 3 - 15 -7 -6 D+ D D+ -1 C C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.7 8th
9th 0.8 1.1 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.2 2.4 4.3 0.3 7.2 10th
11th 0.3 4.9 8.9 2.3 0.0 16.5 11th
12th 13.7 28.8 23.8 6.9 0.1 73.3 12th
Total 13.7 29.1 28.9 18.3 7.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11 0.4% 0.4
6-12 2.1% 2.1
5-13 7.5% 7.5
4-14 18.3% 18.3
3-15 28.9% 28.9
2-16 29.1% 29.1
1-17 13.7% 13.7
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 13.7%