Purdue
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+20.5#7
Expected Predictive Rating+23.1#9
Pace63.7#321
Improvement-0.9#242

Offense
Total Offense+13.2#1
First Shot+10.4#6
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#36
Layup/Dunks+3.9#55
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#54
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#65
Freethrows+0.1#170
Improvement-1.1#274

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#22
First Shot+7.0#19
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#165
Layups/Dunks+7.5#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#352
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#284
Freethrows+5.9#2
Improvement+0.2#168
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.2% 6.1% 3.1%
#1 Seed 26.9% 30.3% 18.4%
Top 2 Seed 57.7% 62.8% 44.6%
Top 4 Seed 89.7% 92.6% 82.4%
Top 6 Seed 97.7% 98.8% 94.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.8% 99.9% 99.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.7% 99.9% 99.4%
Average Seed 2.6 2.4 3.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.4% 98.9% 97.4%
Conference Champion 19.0% 20.5% 15.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Round99.7% 99.9% 99.2%
Second Round94.9% 96.0% 92.2%
Sweet Sixteen68.3% 70.3% 63.3%
Elite Eight39.7% 41.7% 34.6%
Final Four20.7% 22.0% 17.6%
Championship Game10.2% 11.3% 7.7%
National Champion4.7% 5.3% 3.1%

Next Game: Auburn (Neutral) - 71.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a7 - 57 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 112 - 7
Quad 26 - 118 - 7
Quad 36 - 023 - 7
Quad 43 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 269 Evansville W 82-51 99%     1 - 0 +22.2 +17.5 +8.9
  Fri, Nov 7 144 Oakland W 87-77 97%     2 - 0 +8.0 +9.4 -1.4
  Thu, Nov 13 16 @Alabama W 87-80 50%     3 - 0 +27.4 +21.7 +5.9
  Sun, Nov 16 66 Akron W 97-79 91%     4 - 0 +23.5 +18.2 +4.6
  Thu, Nov 20 76 Memphis W 80-71 88%     5 - 0 +16.6 +15.8 +1.1
  Fri, Nov 21 27 Texas Tech W 86-56 71%     6 - 0 +44.7 +22.6 +23.7
  Fri, Nov 28 330 Eastern Illinois W 109-62 99.5%    7 - 0 +33.6 +28.9 +3.5
  Tue, Dec 2 130 @Rutgers W 81-65 92%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +20.8 +17.5 +4.5
  Sat, Dec 6 4 Iowa St. L 58-81 56%     8 - 1 -4.0 -0.8 -4.9
  Wed, Dec 10 96 Minnesota W 85-57 95%     9 - 1 2 - 0 +30.2 +19.6 +12.6
  Sat, Dec 13 99 Marquette W 79-59 95%     10 - 1 +22.0 +13.6 +9.9
  Sat, Dec 20 28 Auburn W 79-73 72%    
  Mon, Dec 29 132 Kent St. W 91-69 98%    
  Sat, Jan 3 43 @Wisconsin W 79-73 71%    
  Wed, Jan 7 48 Washington W 81-68 88%    
  Sat, Jan 10 105 Penn St. W 86-67 96%    
  Wed, Jan 14 22 Iowa W 74-66 77%    
  Sat, Jan 17 36 @USC W 79-74 68%    
  Tue, Jan 20 30 @UCLA W 73-70 62%    
  Sat, Jan 24 12 Illinois W 80-74 70%    
  Tue, Jan 27 26 @Indiana W 75-72 61%    
  Sun, Feb 1 95 @Maryland W 81-69 87%    
  Sat, Feb 7 62 Oregon W 82-67 91%    
  Tue, Feb 10 24 @Nebraska W 75-73 59%    
  Sat, Feb 14 22 @Iowa W 71-69 57%    
  Tue, Feb 17 1 Michigan L 75-78 39%    
  Fri, Feb 20 26 Indiana W 78-69 79%    
  Thu, Feb 26 11 Michigan St. W 73-68 68%    
  Sun, Mar 1 31 @Ohio St. W 78-74 64%    
  Wed, Mar 4 59 @Northwestern W 79-71 77%    
  Sat, Mar 7 43 Wisconsin W 82-70 85%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.5 6.1 3.7 0.9 19.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.1 7.2 11.2 8.2 2.5 0.2 31.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.7 6.9 3.0 0.4 0.0 17.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.5 4.9 1.7 0.2 10.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 3.7 1.6 0.1 7.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 1.5 0.3 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.4 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 4.0 6.8 10.5 14.4 16.3 16.9 14.0 8.6 3.9 0.9 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
19-1 94.7% 3.7    2.9 0.8
18-2 71.0% 6.1    3.8 2.2 0.1
17-3 39.0% 5.5    2.4 2.6 0.4 0.0
16-4 14.6% 2.5    0.6 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 2.5% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.0% 19.0 10.6 6.9 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.9% 100.0% 36.3% 63.7% 1.2 0.7 0.1 100.0%
19-1 3.9% 100.0% 30.6% 69.4% 1.2 3.0 0.8 0.0 100.0%
18-2 8.6% 100.0% 24.7% 75.3% 1.3 5.8 2.6 0.2 100.0%
17-3 14.0% 100.0% 22.6% 77.4% 1.6 7.1 6.0 0.9 0.0 100.0%
16-4 16.9% 100.0% 17.8% 82.2% 1.8 5.9 8.1 2.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 16.3% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 2.3 3.1 6.9 5.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 14.4% 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 2.8 1.0 4.4 5.8 2.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 10.5% 100.0% 7.1% 92.9% 3.4 0.3 1.4 3.9 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8 6.8% 100.0% 5.8% 94.2% 4.1 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 4.0% 100.0% 3.6% 96.4% 4.9 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-10 2.1% 99.8% 2.9% 96.9% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
9-11 1.0% 95.1% 1.0% 94.1% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.1%
8-12 0.4% 84.7% 84.7% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 84.7%
7-13 0.2% 40.4% 40.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 40.4%
6-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.8% 14.9% 84.9% 2.6 26.9 30.8 20.7 11.3 5.5 2.5 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 99.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 93.3 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 96.5 3.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 87.2 12.8