Rice
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.3 #239
Expected Predictive Rating -5.6 #246
Pace 64.5 #295
Improvement +1.8 #98

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #191 D+ C C- C- F+
Defense #281 C- C- C C- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #360 1.03 #320 -7.7 #358
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #43 0.74 #202 +2.7 #58
Three Pointers 43% #141 1.07 #99 +2.3 #104
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #253 -2.6 #253
Freethrows 0.30 #203 70% #264 0.21 #217
Second Chance 34.6% #71 0.90 #334 0.31 #188
Turnovers 17.6% #257
Total Offense -1.0 #191

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #308 1.31 #333 +0.2 #164
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #24 0.63 #14 -1.0 #261
Three Pointers 38% #258 1.12 #312 -0.5 #200
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #220 -1.3 #221
Freethrows 0.31 #203 74% #260 0.23 #230
Second Chance 32.2% #261 1.04 #162 0.33 #226
Turnovers 15.9% #212
Total Defense -3.4 #281

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.4% #345 -2.5% #23
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.8% #204 5.3% #275
Possession Length 18.2 #263 17.5 #206
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #186 0.20 #276
Improvement +3.6 #22 -1.8 #289

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.3 15.9
.500 or above 0.7% 1.5% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 6.9% 12.9% 2.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 0.5% 3.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Away) - 42.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 33 - 104 - 15
Quad 47 - 510 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 73 @Oregon L 63 - 67 9% -0  0 - 1 +7 -2 D C F +8 A+ C+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 104 Stephen F. Austin L 69 - 81 29% -8  0 - 2 -10 +1 D C A- -12 D- C C+
 Fri, Nov 14 303 East Texas A&M W 71 - 64 75% +2  1 - 2 -4 -1 B C F -3 D+ B- B-
 Mon, Nov 17 22 @Tennessee L 66 - 91 2% -12  1 - 3 -5 +5 C D+ B -11 C F D+
 Thu, Nov 20 186 Tarleton St. L 74 - 90 52% -3  1 - 4 -21 -6 D- F B -14 F A+ C
 Mon, Nov 24 156 Kennesaw St. L 84 - 89 OT 33% +1  1 - 5 -5 -1 C- C- D- -3 C C C
 Tue, Nov 25 234 @Florida Gulf Coast L 63 - 78 OT 38% +4  1 - 6 -16 -20 F D- F +6 B A B+
 Wed, Nov 26 332 Oral Roberts W 81 - 62 73% +10  2 - 6 +8 +14 A- A+ C- -3 B+ F C
 Wed, Dec 3 277 Texas St. W 77 - 72 69% +2  3 - 6 -4 +4 F A+ D+ -8 D+ A- D
 Sat, Dec 13 152 Arkansas St. W 77 - 76 43% -7  4 - 6 -1 +3 D+ C- A- -4 D A+ D
 Sat, Dec 20 281 @Pepperdine L 62 - 84 48% -8  4 - 7 -26 -11 F C D -15 F D- B+
 Wed, Dec 31 74 @Tulsa L 48 - 97 9% -16  4 - 8 0 - 1 -38 -20 F F D -22 F C+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 102 Memphis L 70 - 76 27% +1  4 - 9 0 - 2 -4 +7 C- B C- -12 A+ F B
 Wed, Jan 7 99 @Wichita St. W 66 - 64 12% +2  5 - 9 1 - 2 +10 +3 C+ D- C +8 A+ A+ D-
 Sun, Jan 11 171 Charlotte L 73 - 74 49% -3  5 - 10 1 - 3 -5 +2 D D+ D+ -7 F A+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 344 @Texas San Antonio W 89 - 73 67% +11  6 - 10 2 - 3 +7 +25 A+ C+ C+ -16 F+ F D
 Wed, Jan 21 143 Temple L 65 - 69 41% -0  6 - 11 2 - 4 -6 -0 C- B D- -6 B F F+
 Sat, Jan 24 74 Tulsa L 81 - 87 20% -13  6 - 12 2 - 5 -1 +10 A B+ D- -12 B+ F C
 Wed, Jan 28 254 @East Carolina L 70 - 72 42%
 Sat, Jan 31 171 @Charlotte L 68 - 74 27%
 Wed, Feb 4 140 North Texas L 63 - 66 40%
 Sun, Feb 8 118 @UAB L 70 - 80 17%
 Wed, Feb 11 101 Florida Atlantic L 72 - 78 28%
 Sat, Feb 14 254 East Carolina W 73 - 69 64%
 Sun, Feb 22 173 @Tulane L 69 - 75 29%
 Wed, Feb 25 68 South Florida L 73 - 82 19%
 Sun, Mar 1 143 @Temple L 68 - 76 22%
 Wed, Mar 4 140 @North Texas L 60 - 69 22%
 Sun, Mar 8 344 Texas San Antonio W 78 - 68 83%
Totals 10 - 19 6 - 12 -4 -1 D+ C C- -3 C- C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.0 1.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.1 0.2 3.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.7 1.6 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 5.7 4.6 0.3 11.6 9th
10th 0.2 3.1 10.1 9.0 1.2 0.0 23.7 10th
11th 0.2 3.8 12.1 10.6 2.2 0.1 28.8 11th
12th 0.5 4.8 9.9 6.9 1.3 0.0 23.5 12th
13th 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 13th
Total 0.8 5.3 14.0 22.1 23.1 17.6 10.4 4.9 1.6 0.4 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.4% 3.8% 3.8% 14.0 0.0 0.4
10-8 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
9-9 4.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 4.8
8-10 10.4% 0.3% 0.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 10.3
7-11 17.6% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 17.6
6-12 23.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 23.0
5-13 22.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 22.1
4-14 14.0% 14.0
3-15 5.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.3
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.6 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%