Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.2#34
Expected Predictive Rating+12.6#48
Pace78.2#21
Improvement+0.4#152

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#48
First Shot+7.6#21
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#229
Layup/Dunks+7.0#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#347
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#58
Freethrows-0.2#197
Improvement+1.1#90

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#31
First Shot+3.3#78
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#16
Layups/Dunks+7.1#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#306
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#195
Freethrows-1.7#294
Improvement-0.8#248
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.3% 2.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 6.9% 7.0% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.1% 56.2% 37.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 32.0% 32.1% 15.4%
Average Seed 9.3 9.3 10.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.5% 97.6%
Conference Champion 54.6% 54.6% 45.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.0% 9.1% 4.8%
First Round52.1% 52.2% 36.1%
Second Round26.7% 26.8% 15.7%
Sweet Sixteen8.4% 8.4% 6.0%
Elite Eight2.9% 3.0% 0.0%
Final Four1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: New Hampshire (Home) - 99.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 26 - 37 - 4
Quad 38 - 115 - 5
Quad 412 - 027 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 213 Southeast Missouri St. W 92-67 95%     1 - 0 +18.6 +8.6 +7.8
  Thu, Nov 6 341 Chicago St. W 108-86 99%     2 - 0 +7.9 +8.1 -4.3
  Mon, Nov 10 228 Lindenwood W 109-66 96%     3 - 0 +35.9 +19.4 +10.7
  Sat, Nov 15 91 Grand Canyon W 78-64 83%     4 - 0 +16.8 +3.5 +12.4
  Fri, Nov 21 220 Purdue Fort Wayne W 91-60 96%     5 - 0 +24.4 +12.4 +11.9
  Thu, Nov 27 77 Santa Clara W 71-70 71%     6 - 0 +8.4 +0.5 +8.0
  Fri, Nov 28 88 Stanford L 77-78 75%     6 - 1 +5.1 +4.5 +0.6
  Tue, Dec 2 145 @Loyola Marymount W 91-70 81%     7 - 1 +25.0 +15.6 +7.5
  Sun, Dec 7 326 Central Michigan W 107-65 98%     8 - 1 +29.2 +28.5 +1.1
  Sat, Dec 13 94 San Francisco W 85-75 84%     9 - 1 +12.6 +12.1 +0.4
  Wed, Dec 17 259 Bethune-Cookman W 112-53 97%     10 - 1 +50.5 +24.2 +20.7
  Sun, Dec 21 338 New Hampshire W 88-61 99%    
  Wed, Dec 31 174 Saint Joseph's W 85-68 95%    
  Wed, Jan 7 50 @Virginia Commonwealth L 78-79 47%    
  Sat, Jan 10 238 @La Salle W 81-66 91%    
  Wed, Jan 14 196 Fordham W 83-64 96%    
  Sat, Jan 17 104 Richmond W 86-74 87%    
  Tue, Jan 20 140 @Duquesne W 88-79 79%    
  Fri, Jan 23 111 @St. Bonaventure W 80-73 74%    
  Tue, Jan 27 79 George Washington W 89-80 80%    
  Fri, Jan 30 61 Dayton W 82-75 75%    
  Tue, Feb 3 126 @Davidson W 80-72 76%    
  Sat, Feb 7 238 La Salle W 84-63 97%    
  Fri, Feb 13 289 @Loyola Chicago W 86-69 94%    
  Tue, Feb 17 116 @Rhode Island W 80-73 74%    
  Fri, Feb 20 50 Virginia Commonwealth W 81-76 68%    
  Tue, Feb 24 61 @Dayton W 79-78 54%    
  Sat, Feb 28 140 Duquesne W 91-76 91%    
  Wed, Mar 4 289 Loyola Chicago W 89-66 98%    
  Sat, Mar 7 75 @George Mason W 76-73 59%    
Projected Record 25 - 5 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 7.7 15.3 16.6 10.4 3.1 54.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 6.0 8.8 4.3 0.7 0.0 21.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.5 5.2 1.9 0.1 11.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 3.2 1.1 0.1 6.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.8 0.0 3.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.9 8.9 13.9 18.4 19.7 17.2 10.4 3.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.1    3.1
17-1 99.9% 10.4    10.1 0.2
16-2 96.0% 16.6    14.2 2.3 0.1
15-3 77.5% 15.3    9.5 5.0 0.8
14-4 41.9% 7.7    2.6 3.6 1.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.7% 1.5    0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.1
12-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 54.6% 54.6 39.5 11.6 2.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.1% 98.1% 59.7% 38.5% 4.5 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 95.4%
17-1 10.4% 92.3% 51.5% 40.8% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.8 84.2%
16-2 17.2% 79.2% 44.9% 34.3% 9.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.3 3.2 4.0 2.3 0.0 3.6 62.3%
15-3 19.7% 64.1% 38.3% 25.8% 10.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 4.5 5.3 0.1 7.1 41.8%
14-4 18.4% 48.7% 33.9% 14.8% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.4 5.8 0.3 9.5 22.4%
13-5 13.9% 35.0% 26.5% 8.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.6 0.4 9.0 11.6%
12-6 8.9% 25.1% 21.9% 3.2% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.9 0.3 6.7 4.1%
11-7 4.9% 16.1% 14.3% 1.8% 11.2 0.0 0.6 0.2 4.1 2.1%
10-8 2.2% 12.8% 12.7% 0.2% 11.4 0.2 0.1 1.9 0.2%
9-9 0.9% 7.5% 7.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.9
8-10 0.3% 8.4% 8.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.3
7-11 0.1% 3.3% 3.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 56.1% 35.4% 20.7% 9.3 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.8 3.4 4.8 7.1 12.8 19.8 1.3 0.0 43.9 32.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 3.3 7.0 20.0 28.4 24.7 16.1 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 97.6% 5.7 4.2 12.0 29.5 27.7 15.7 4.8 3.0 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 93.1% 6.4 2.6 7.8 9.5 30.2 24.1 11.2 4.3 3.4