Preseason Rankings
Santa Clara
West Coast
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.5#105
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.4#86
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#92
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#123
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.0% 9.2% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.8% 4.0% 1.0%
Average Seed 10.1 9.9 10.6
.500 or above 62.0% 73.3% 45.9%
.500 or above in Conference 63.5% 70.6% 53.3%
Conference Champion 3.8% 4.9% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 1.5% 4.2%
First Four1.4% 2.0% 0.6%
First Round6.2% 8.1% 3.6%
Second Round2.3% 3.1% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: McNeese St. (Home) - 58.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 23 - 53 - 9
Quad 36 - 410 - 13
Quad 47 - 116 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2025 96   McNeese St. W 71-69 59%    
  Nov 10, 2025 50   @ Xavier L 71-80 19%    
  Nov 15, 2025 98   Nevada W 70-68 58%    
  Nov 18, 2025 282   Idaho St. W 78-64 90%    
  Nov 21, 2025 234   Louisiana W 78-66 84%    
  Nov 27, 2025 72   Saint Louis L 73-76 38%    
  Dec 03, 2025 271   Utah Tech W 80-67 88%    
  Dec 06, 2025 79   @ New Mexico L 75-81 32%    
  Dec 13, 2025 68   Arizona St. L 73-77 37%    
  Dec 17, 2025 89   North Texas L 63-64 46%    
  Dec 20, 2025 103   Loyola Chicago L 72-73 50%    
  Dec 28, 2025 113   @ Oregon St. L 70-72 42%    
  Dec 30, 2025 262   @ Portland W 80-73 72%    
  Jan 02, 2026 239   Pepperdine W 82-70 84%    
  Jan 04, 2026 183   San Diego W 84-75 78%    
  Jan 08, 2026 19   @ Gonzaga L 72-87 10%    
  Jan 10, 2026 136   Loyola Marymount W 76-70 69%    
  Jan 14, 2026 219   Pacific W 79-68 82%    
  Jan 17, 2026 49   St. Mary's L 63-67 38%    
  Jan 24, 2026 183   @ San Diego W 81-78 60%    
  Jan 28, 2026 75   San Francisco W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 31, 2026 136   @ Loyola Marymount L 72-73 50%    
  Feb 04, 2026 219   @ Pacific W 76-71 66%    
  Feb 07, 2026 124   @ Washington St. L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 11, 2026 121   Seattle W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 14, 2026 19   Gonzaga L 75-84 23%    
  Feb 21, 2026 75   @ San Francisco L 71-77 32%    
  Feb 25, 2026 49   @ St. Mary's L 60-70 21%    
  Feb 28, 2026 113   Oregon St. W 73-69 63%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 3.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.0 3.2 1.7 0.3 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.0 3.6 1.0 0.1 12.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.5 5.6 3.3 0.6 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.4 5.7 2.9 0.4 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.4 3.1 5.6 2.5 0.3 0.0 12.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.0 2.4 0.2 0.0 10.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.1 1.8 0.2 6.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.5 6.7 9.3 11.1 12.3 12.3 11.6 10.0 7.4 5.0 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 77.8% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
15-3 42.8% 1.3    0.6 0.6 0.1
14-4 15.5% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 2.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 93.9% 50.0% 43.9% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.7%
17-1 0.4% 85.1% 37.0% 48.0% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 76.3%
16-2 1.3% 68.7% 31.6% 37.1% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 54.3%
15-3 3.1% 48.9% 25.2% 23.7% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.6 31.7%
14-4 5.0% 29.3% 16.9% 12.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.1 3.5 14.9%
13-5 7.4% 14.3% 10.2% 4.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.3 4.6%
12-6 10.0% 8.3% 6.4% 1.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 9.2 2.0%
11-7 11.6% 3.8% 3.4% 0.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 11.2 0.5%
10-8 12.3% 1.5% 1.4% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.1 0.1%
9-9 12.3% 1.0% 1.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.2
8-10 11.1% 0.3% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0
7-11 9.3% 0.1% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.2
6-12 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.7
5-13 4.5% 4.5
4-14 2.7% 2.7
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.0% 4.4% 2.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.0 2.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%