SMU
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +14.1 37
Expected Predictive Rating +14.2 37
Pace 72.0 89
Improvement -0.4 209

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A 15 A B B C D+
Defense B- 75 B- B- B- B B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 176 B+ 66% 34 +3.2 78
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 77 A- 47% 17 +4.3 22
Three Pointers 36% 295 A 41% 6 +1.1 142
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.6 275 A +9.1 2
1st FG Attempt A 1.19 11
Second Chance B+ 37.2% 27 C 1.04 162 B 0.39 49
Turnovers B 15.0% 63
Freethrows C- 0.30 221 B 76% 56 C 0.23 165
Total Offense A +10.6 15

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 335 C 58% 183 +4.1 51
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 81 B 34% 45 -0.2 204
Three Pointers 45% 64 C+ 32% 113 -1.1 242
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.9 47 B- -1.9 101
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 90
Second Chance C+ 29.1% 117 B 0.93 57 B- 0.27 71
Turnovers B- 18.6% 84
Freethrows B 0.26 56 B 70% 56 B 0.18 47
Total Defense B- +3.5 75

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.3 26 18.6 338
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 52 0.13 61
Improvement +1.5 #108 -1.9 #288

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 1% 2% 0%
Top 6 Seed 10% 14% 3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84% 89% 76%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 83% 89% 75%
Average Seed 8.5 8.1 9.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 94% 98% 87%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four7% 4% 11%
First Round81% 88% 71%
Second Round42% 47% 33%
Sweet Sixteen10% 12% 7%
Elite Eight3% 4% 2%
Final Four1% 1% 1%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Syracuse (Away) - 60.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 35 - 8
Quad 26 - 211 - 10
Quad 36 - 017 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 211 Tarleton St. W 96 - 76 96% +7  94% 1 - 0 B+ +14 A+ +17 A D- A+ C- -3 B+ B C+
 Thu, Nov 6 201 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 58 96% +2  63% 2 - 0 B- +5 D -5 F+ F A+ A +10 A- A- D+
 Tue, Nov 11 111 Murray St. W 102 - 91 89% +9  97% 3 - 0 B+ +11 B+ +9 B- B+ B C+ +1 C- C- B
 Sat, Nov 15 75 Butler W 87 - 85 82% -0  41% 4 - 0 B- +7 B +7 A+ B F C -1 F A- A+
 Tue, Nov 18 312 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 106 - 60 98% +24  99% 5 - 0 A+ +34 A- +10 A+ F+ C A+ +18 A- A+ B
 Fri, Nov 21 143 Arkansas St. W 100 - 69 92% +15  89% 6 - 0 A+ +29 A- +11 A+ F A+ A+ +14 A- F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 235 Radford W 89 - 72 96% +11  100% 7 - 0 B +10 C +0 D+ A D A- +8 A+ D+ D-
 Fri, Nov 28 79 @Mississippi St. W 87 - 81 OT 66% -1  33% 8 - 0 A- +16 B +7 C+ A+ C A- +8 A B+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 14 @Vanderbilt L 69 - 88 23% -9  4% 8 - 1 C+ +3 B- +5 C- A+ C+ C- -3 D A F
 Sun, Dec 7 31 Texas A&M W 93 - 80 OT 48% +5  73% 9 - 1 A+ +28 B +7 C A+ A+ A+ +18 A+ A- A-
 Sat, Dec 13 57 LSU L 77 - 89 66% -7  8% 9 - 2 C- -2 A +12 A B+ C+ F -15 F F B+
 Sun, Dec 21 190 Central Arkansas W 99 - 82 95% +11  98% 10 - 2 B+ +12 A+ +21 A+ A+ B D- -9 D- F A
 Sun, Dec 28 207 Cal St. Fullerton W 110 - 63 96% +25  99% 11 - 2 A+ +41 A+ +24 A+ A- A A+ +14 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 3 26 North Carolina W 97 - 83 57% +5  83% 12 - 2 1 - 0 A+ +26 A+ +27 A+ C A C -0 D- A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 38 @Clemson L 70 - 74 39% -7  0% 12 - 3 1 - 1 B+ +13 A- +10 C- A+ C- B- +3 B+ C C-
 Sat, Jan 10 3 @Duke L 75 - 82 12% -4  21% 12 - 4 1 - 2 A +20 A +14 A+ B+ F B +6 C A+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 56 Virginia Tech W 77 - 76 75% -0  43% 13 - 4 2 - 2 B +8 B +6 B+ C- B+ C+ +2 C+ B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 23 Virginia L 68 - 72 53% -1  41% 13 - 5 2 - 3 B +9 B+ +8 B- A A C+ +1 A F B
 Tue, Jan 20 63 @Wake Forest W 91 - 79 60% +8  89% 14 - 5 3 - 3 A+ +23 A +14 A+ B+ B A- +9 B- A+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 95 Florida St. W 83 - 80 86% +4  72% 15 - 5 4 - 3 B- +5 A +12 B+ C A+ D -6 C C D
 Sat, Jan 31 11 @Louisville L 74 - 88 21% +1  56% 15 - 6 4 - 4 B +9 C+ +3 A B- F+ B+ +6 C A C
 Tue, Feb 3 27 North Carolina St. L 83 - 84 57% +1  55% 15 - 7 4 - 5 B+ +11 A +12 A+ D- A+ C -0 C+ B D
 Sat, Feb 7 98 @Pittsburgh W 86 - 67 72% +7  66% 16 - 7 5 - 5 A+ +27 A+ +19 A+ B- A- A- +9 A+ B- B-
 Tue, Feb 10 83 Notre Dame W 89 - 81 84% +5  83% 17 - 7 6 - 5 B+ +12 A+ +16 A+ A+ F D+ -4 F B B-
 Sat, Feb 14 67 @Syracuse W 82 - 79 61%
 Tue, Feb 17 11 Louisville L 84 - 86 42%
 Sat, Feb 21 132 Boston College W 81 - 66 92%
 Wed, Feb 25 73 @California W 81 - 78 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 74 @Stanford W 81 - 77 63%
 Wed, Mar 4 41 Miami (FL) W 83 - 79 65%
 Sat, Mar 7 95 @Florida St. W 87 - 81 70%
Totals 22 - 9 11 - 7 +14 F +11 C+ A D+ B- +4 A B C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A B+ A- A A 39% 26% 36% D+ A B+ C B B C- B C B- C B C+ B- 31% 24% 45% B B- C+ B B- B- B B B
1.24 66% 47% 41% +9 -1 1.19 37% 1.0 .39 15% .30 76% .23 1.04 58% 34% 32% -2 -1 0.96 29% 0.9 .27 19% .26 70% .21
Nov
3		 Tarleton St. A+ A+ A+ A A+ 30% 33% 37% F A D+ F D- A+ A+ A- A+ C- F A+ D- C+ 22% 43% 35% A+ B+ C+ B+ B C+ F F+ F
1.32 79% 53% 41% +15 -2 1.28 29% 0.9 .25 15% .68 79% .53 1.04 80% 15% 38% -3 -4 0.87 30% 0.9 .27 21% .61 83% .50
Nov
6		 TX A&M Corpus Christi D D F+ D- F+ 40% 30% 30% D- F+ C+ F F A+ B+ A+ A+ A B+ A+ C+ A- 29% 23% 48% B+ A- C- A+ A- D+ B C- B-
1.00 53% 29% 29% -7 -1 0.85 31% 0.5 .17 13% .47 82% .38 0.84 47% 8% 32% -11 -1 0.77 31% 0.6 .19 16% .31 67% .21
Nov
11		 Murray St. B+ D B A+ B 40% 35% 25% D- B- A C- B+ B A+ A+ A+ C+ B+ F C+ C- 39% 17% 44% C C- A F C- B D+ C+ C-
1.25 50% 43% 47% +3 -2 1.05 43% 1.0 .43 14% .43 83% .36 1.12 52% 78% 33% +4 +1 1.11 24% 1.6 .39 18% .36 75% .27
Nov
15		 Butler B A- A+ C A 63% 15% 22% A+ A+ A+ F+ B F B B- B C D- A+ F F 35% 17% 48% B+ F F A+ A- A+ D+ A+ C+
1.17 68% 50% 33% +8 +3 1.22 42% 0.8 .32 21% .26 73% .19 1.14 67% 22% 48% +10 0 1.23 43% 0.8 .32 23% .40 61% .24
Nov
18		 Arkansas Pine Bluff A- A+ A- A+ A+ 36% 19% 46% D+ A+ D D- F+ C C B- C+ A+ F A+ A+ A 39% 23% 39% D+ A- C A+ A+ B B- A+ A
1.32 76% 45% 44% +15 0 1.32 30% 1.0 .30 15% .38 77% .29 0.75 73% 15% 18% -9 0 0.84 26% 0.2 .04 21% .28 56% .16
Nov
21		 Arkansas St. A- A+ A+ B+ A+ 41% 27% 32% C- A+ B F F A+ F F F A+ D- F A+ A- 31% 20% 49% A- A- F C F A+ C- A- C+
1.25 81% 56% 38% +16 -1 1.33 31% 0.2 .05 10% .22 63% .14 0.86 67% 50% 17% -8 -1 0.86 54% 1.0 .54 40% .33 69% .23
Nov
24		 Radford C C+ F C D+ 37% 16% 47% C- D+ C+ A+ A D A+ A- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 29% 15% 56% B- A+ A F D+ D- A F B
1.14 61% 25% 35% 0 0 1.02 35% 1.4 .49 21% .52 78% .40 0.92 41% 22% 24% -15 0 0.71 21% 1.5 .32 14% .27 83% .22
Nov
28		 Mississippi St. B C- A F B- 21% 40% 39% F C+ B A+ A+ C A- F B- A- B C+ A A 29% 29% 43% A- A A+ F B+ F D- F+ F+
1.09 54% 48% 25% -2 -4 0.90 31% 1.6 .49 14% .33 65% .22 1.01 56% 39% 26% -6 -2 0.87 20% 1.2 .24 9% .34 76% .26
Dec
3		 Vanderbilt B- A+ D+ F C+ 33% 41% 25% F C- A+ A A+ C+ A C A- C- F F A D 45% 17% 38% D+ D A+ D- A F A+ D- A+
1.02 71% 33% 15% -5 -3 0.86 40% 1.2 .48 19% .42 74% .31 1.30 81% 60% 27% +10 +1 1.24 21% 1.3 .29 7% .19 83% .16
Dec
7		 Texas A&M B A- B+ F C+ 34% 31% 34% D- C D A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ D B- A+ A+ 27% 18% 55% A+ A+ D+ A+ A- A- F A+ F
1.10 65% 44% 25% 0 -2 0.98 24% 1.9 .44 13% .38 93% .35 0.94 67% 40% 27% -3 0 0.95 36% 0.7 .24 19% .49 65% .32
Dec
13		 LSU A B- A A+ A+ 41% 27% 33% C- A A+ D+ B+ C+ C+ F C- F C F F F 42% 28% 30% A- F F F F B+ A+ F+ A+
1.20 60% 46% 44% +8 -1 1.16 43% 0.8 .35 16% .31 59% .18 1.38 62% 57% 47% +13 -1 1.26 43% 1.9 .83 19% .23 83% .19
Dec
21		 Central Arkansas A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 36% 12% 53% C+ A+ A+ A- A+ B F A F D- A- C F F 31% 27% 42% A D- F D- F A D+ D+ D
1.41 86% 71% 32% +13 +1 1.29 55% 1.3 .72 17% .17 80% .14 1.16 50% 36% 50% +7 -1 1.13 34% 1.2 .40 21% .31 71% .22
Dec
28		 Cal St. Fullerton A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 31% 26% 43% F+ A+ A+ F+ A- A C- B- C- A+ A+ F A+ A+ 25% 27% 47% A+ A+ F A+ C A+ D- B- D+
1.44 84% 31% 54% +19 -1 1.38 50% 0.9 .43 14% .29 74% .21 0.83 31% 50% 25% -10 -2 0.78 36% 0.7 .24 25% .38 68% .26
Jan
3		 North Carolina A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 16% 49% A- A+ D+ B C A B+ C- B C D C F F+ 29% 20% 51% B+ D- A- A+ A+ B- B- C+ B-
1.40 79% 56% 52% +23 0 1.49 22% 1.0 .22 10% .26 69% .18 1.20 67% 40% 46% +12 -1 1.25 28% 0.7 .19 14% .32 68% .22
Jan
7		 Clemson A- D F+ C- C- 34% 27% 39% C- C- A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ B- D A+ A- A 38% 2% 60% D- B+ C- B- C C- F+ B- D-
1.07 50% 27% 31% -7 -1 0.85 35% 1.3 .44 20% .55 90% .49 1.13 67% 0% 29% -2 +2 1.02 31% 1.0 .31 14% .42 71% .30
Jan
10		 Duke A B A+ A+ A+ 31% 40% 29% F+ A+ A+ C B+ F C- A+ B- B C- A+ F D+ 32% 14% 55% A C A+ A A+ B F D- F
1.08 60% 58% 50% +16 -3 1.27 35% 0.8 .26 30% .19 89% .16 1.18 64% 17% 46% +9 0 1.20 27% 1.0 .27 19% .48 78% .37
Jan
14		 Virginia Tech B B- A+ F A- 41% 35% 24% D B+ C+ D C- B+ A+ D+ A+ C+ D+ D+ B- C+ 36% 20% 44% C C+ B- B+ B+ C- B- A+ A-
1.11 60% 53% 25% +3 -2 1.04 31% 0.9 .29 16% .39 70% .27 1.10 67% 40% 32% +2 0 1.06 31% 1.0 .31 14% .30 61% .19
Jan
17		 Virginia B+ F A A+ B 40% 40% 19% D B- B+ A+ A A D+ A- C C+ A A+ D+ A 29% 22% 49% A+ A D F F B A- F B-
1.09 38% 48% 40% -2 -2 0.92 33% 1.2 .39 13% .26 79% .20 1.16 46% 30% 36% -3 -1 0.93 44% 1.4 .61 18% .23 83% .20
Jan
20		 Wake Forest A D+ A+ A+ A+ 27% 25% 47% F+ A+ B B- B+ B C- D+ D+ A- B- B- C- B 38% 17% 45% C B- A+ B- A+ C B- B B
1.20 53% 57% 46% +12 -1 1.24 35% 1.1 .39 19% .29 72% .21 1.05 55% 40% 35% -1 0 1.02 22% 1.1 .24 15% .28 72% .20
Jan
24		 Florida St. A B- A+ C+ B+ 34% 17% 49% B- B+ B- D C A+ A C+ A D F A C C- 30% 21% 48% A C F A+ C D B A- B+
1.22 61% 56% 35% +5 0 1.11 34% 0.8 .29 10% .38 74% .28 1.18 71% 25% 33% +1 -1 1.02 42% 0.9 .37 12% .25 67% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Louisville C+ A+ A C A+ 22% 33% 44% D- A C+ B+ B- F+ F D F B+ F A B C- 35% 11% 54% B- C A+ B A C D A C
0.99 75% 44% 33% +6 -3 1.07 26% 1.1 .29 21% .15 67% .10 1.18 90% 33% 32% +9 +1 1.23 26% 0.9 .24 15% .36 70% .25
Feb
3		 North Carolina St. A C- D+ A+ A+ 48% 16% 36% B A+ B+ F D- A+ F F F C A B- F C+ 29% 11% 60% C+ C+ A D- B D C A+ A-
1.18 54% 33% 57% +10 +1 1.24 32% 0.5 .16 14% .20 58% .12 1.20 50% 33% 42% +5 +1 1.13 23% 1.4 .31 10% .32 60% .19
Feb
7		 Pittsburgh A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 38% 27% 35% D A+ B- B- B- A- C+ C+ C+ A- C+ A- A+ A+ 28% 20% 52% B+ A+ C B+ B- B- D- F F
1.30 83% 46% 47% +19 -1 1.38 29% 1.0 .29 14% .30 76% .23 1.01 57% 30% 23% -10 -1 0.80 37% 0.9 .32 18% .35 79% .28
Feb
10		 Notre Dame A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 37% 16% 47% B A+ A+ A A+ F C+ C+ C+ D+ F B+ F F 37% 17% 46% D F A+ F+ B B- A- A+ A
1.29 56% 50% 48% +11 0 1.24 42% 1.2 .52 20% .29 75% .22 1.17 74% 33% 46% +13 0 1.29 23% 1.1 .26 17% .25 57% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.8 2.6 3.4 3rd
4th 0.2 5.6 2.0 7.8 4th
5th 0.0 3.3 8.7 0.3 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 13.2 3.7 18.8 6th
7th 0.7 10.4 10.1 0.2 21.4 7th
8th 0.4 7.0 12.7 1.7 21.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.4 5.5 0.9 7.8 9th
10th 0.1 2.4 1.3 0.0 3.9 10th
11th 0.3 1.0 0.1 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.1 1.0 5.4 14.6 26.0 28.6 19.0 5.5 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 5.5% 99.5% 7.2% 92.3% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 99.5%
12-6 19.0% 97.8% 5.2% 92.6% 7.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.3 5.8 5.3 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.4 97.7%
11-7 28.6% 93.2% 3.4% 89.7% 8.4 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.9 8.3 8.3 4.0 0.6 0.0 2.0 92.9%
10-8 26.0% 82.5% 2.1% 80.5% 9.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.6 7.2 7.2 2.4 4.5 82.2%
9-9 14.6% 65.9% 1.3% 64.6% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 3.7 3.1 0.0 5.0 65.4%
8-10 5.4% 40.6% 1.2% 39.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 0.0 3.2 39.9%
7-11 1.0% 14.3% 0.5% 13.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8 13.8%
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 84.0% 3.2% 80.8% 8.5 16.0 83.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 3.6 1.3 2.5 44.3 40.5 10.1 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 100.0% 5.1 4.8 23.1 39.5 25.2 7.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8% 100.0% 5.8 1.4 6.2 30.1 40.6 18.9 2.8