Toledo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.7 #166
Expected Predictive Rating -0.4 #168
Pace 71.1 #122
Improvement +0.5 #158

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #111 B- C- B C D
Defense #265 F C- B- A+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #114 1.16 #176 +1.4 #124
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #44 0.91 #26 +5.2 #10
Three Pointers 31% #348 1.08 #89 -4.2 #311
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #111 +2.4 #111
Freethrows 16.5 #234 77% #50 12.7 #173
Second Chance 30.8% #180 0.96 #276 0.30 #233
Turnovers 14.7% #72
Total Offense +2.4 #111

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #123 1.25 #290 -3.0 #282
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #327 0.82 #281 +1.4 #85
Three Pointers 44% #96 1.13 #321 -4.0 #328
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #336 -5.6 #334
Freethrows 11.6 #6 72% #158 8.3 #357
Second Chance 33.0% #275 1.02 #154 0.34 #227
Turnovers 18.1% #83
Total Defense -3.0 #265

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #290 1.6% #322
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.5% #82 9.2% #327
Possession Length 16.5 #102 17.3 #191
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #44 0.21 #303
Improvement -0.3 #204 +0.8 #123

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 5.4% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.5 13.9
.500 or above 62.5% 80.1% 53.7%
.500 or above in Conference 83.2% 94.7% 77.6%
Conference Champion 1.4% 3.0% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round4.0% 5.4% 3.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kent St. (Away) - 33.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 35 - 66 - 11
Quad 410 - 315 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 183 South Alabama L 74 - 76 65% -9  0 - 1 -7 +7 A+ F C -14 F F A-
 Sat, Nov 8 177 Marshall L 73 - 85 64% +1  0 - 2 -16 -4 C- D F -13 F A+ A-
 Tue, Nov 11 142 @Wright St. W 81 - 71 32% +4  1 - 2 +14 +13 A A+ F +2 F C- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 286 Detroit Mercy W 90 - 83 82% +4  2 - 2 -3 +4 A- D F -8 F C C
 Wed, Nov 19 209 Youngstown St. W 92 - 75 70% +8  3 - 2 +11 +11 A+ B C+ -1 D+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 117 Troy W 75 - 68 37% +2  4 - 2 +10 +5 C C B- +5 A A+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 79 Belmont L 72 - 87 22% -3  4 - 3 -8 -0 C+ D+ C+ -7 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 127 @Oakland L 97 - 98 30% +1  4 - 4 +4 +13 B+ A C -9 D F F
 Sat, Dec 13 221 @Robert Morris L 70 - 75 49% +6  4 - 5 -5 -4 F F A+ -2 C A+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 12 @Michigan St. L 69 - 92 3% -20  4 - 6 -1 +9 C C- A+ -10 F C- B+
 Tue, Dec 30 250 Western Michigan W 84 - 79 76% -3  5 - 6 1 - 0 -3 +3 F B+ C- -6 C D- A-
 Sat, Jan 3 321 @Central Michigan W 78 - 75 73% -5  6 - 6 2 - 0 -4 +2 F F A+ -6 F B- F
 Tue, Jan 6 331 @Northern Illinois W 75 - 61 75% +11  7 - 6 3 - 0 +6 -2 C+ F D+ +8 C- B- A+
 Fri, Jan 9 86 Miami (OH) L 73 - 87 34% -17  7 - 7 3 - 1 -10 +1 C- D- B- -11 F D+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 179 Ohio W 101 - 85 65% +4  8 - 7 4 - 1 +11 +25 A+ A+ A -14 D- F C-
 Fri, Jan 16 149 @Kent St. L 82 - 87 33%
 Tue, Jan 20 168 @Massachusetts L 80 - 83 40%
 Sat, Jan 24 133 Bowling Green W 79 - 78 53%
 Tue, Jan 27 67 @Akron L 80 - 92 13%
 Sat, Jan 31 305 Ball St. W 80 - 69 84%
 Tue, Feb 3 149 Kent St. W 85 - 84 56%
 Sat, Feb 7 223 @James Madison L 76 - 77 50%
 Wed, Feb 11 250 @Western Michigan W 80 - 79 55%
 Sat, Feb 14 133 @Bowling Green L 76 - 81 31%
 Sat, Feb 21 205 Eastern Michigan W 77 - 72 69%
 Tue, Feb 24 331 Northern Illinois W 84 - 71 89%
 Sat, Feb 28 179 @Ohio L 80 - 82 42%
 Fri, Mar 6 199 Buffalo W 83 - 78 67%
Totals 15 - 13 10 - 7 -1 +2 B- C- B -3 F C- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 4.1 8.4 4.8 1.1 0.0 18.9 3rd
4th 0.3 4.4 9.5 5.0 0.4 19.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.6 8.9 5.1 0.4 0.0 17.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 6.8 6.1 0.7 14.7 6th
7th 0.5 4.2 5.5 1.0 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 4.1 1.2 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.1 0.8 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.7 10.4 16.3 20.9 19.5 14.6 7.9 3.2 0.7 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 83.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-3 70.7% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1
14-4 18.4% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2
13-5 3.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.7% 12.8% 12.8% 12.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
14-4 3.2% 10.9% 10.9% 12.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.9
13-5 7.9% 9.2% 9.2% 13.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 7.2
12-6 14.6% 6.8% 6.8% 13.4 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 13.6
11-7 19.5% 3.9% 3.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 18.8
10-8 20.9% 3.4% 3.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 20.2
9-9 16.3% 2.0% 2.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 16.0
8-10 10.4% 0.7% 0.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 10.3
7-11 4.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.7
6-12 1.4% 1.4
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 13.8 95.9 0.0%