Troy
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.6 #120
Expected Predictive Rating +3.1 #115
Pace 66.6 #241
Improvement +1.6 #114

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #115 C C+ C C B+
Defense #150 C C- C B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #52 1.07 #274 +1.2 #138
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #337 0.80 #115 -3.3 #331
Three Pointers 44% #118 1.06 #117 +2.6 #95
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #151 +0.4 #159
Freethrows 0.30 #180 72% #184 0.22 #174
Second Chance 34.3% #77 1.03 #199 0.35 #103
Turnovers 16.4% #177
Total Offense +2.1 #115

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #225 1.08 #80 +2.3 #97
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #183 0.92 #356 -1.6 #302
Three Pointers 43% #133 1.06 #251 -1.7 #267
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #208 -1.0 #210
Freethrows 0.29 #144 69% #39 0.20 #96
Second Chance 31.4% #224 1.10 #268 0.35 #256
Turnovers 16.8% #156
Total Defense +0.5 #150

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.9% #24 -0.2% #150
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.4% #196 2.1% #216
Possession Length 17.8 #216 17.6 #225
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #190 0.16 #165
Improvement +2.3 #65 -0.8 #231

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.2% 42.6% 36.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 13.0 13.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 93.0% 95.7% 84.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round41.2% 42.6% 36.4%
Second Round2.6% 2.8% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Appalachian St. (Home) - 76.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 13 - 2
Quad 36 - 58 - 7
Quad 412 - 321 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 143 @Kent St. W 103 - 97 OT 44% +8  1 - 0 +10 +12 A+ C+ C+ -3 B D- D
 Fri, Nov 7 160 @Furman W 64 - 61 49% +7  2 - 0 +6 -6 C- F+ F +12 B C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 161 @Loyola Marymount L 63 - 74 49% -3  2 - 1 -8 -5 C D F -3 F+ A- D+
 Sun, Nov 16 204 @Cal St. Northridge L 85 - 94 59% -4  2 - 2 -9 +9 B+ F A -17 F+ F B-
 Tue, Nov 18 41 @San Diego St. W 108 - 107 2OT 13% +3  3 - 2 +16 +21 C+ A+ A+ -5 B- F A
 Thu, Nov 20 44 @USC L 106 - 107 3OT 13% -2  3 - 3 +14 +9 C A+ D +5 B A+ D-
 Mon, Nov 24 163 Toledo L 68 - 75 62% -2  3 - 4 -7 -7 F F+ C+ -1 B- D+ C+
 Wed, Nov 26 353 St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 64 93% -2  4 - 4 -4 -8 F+ C- F +4 D+ B- A+
 Mon, Dec 1 328 West Georgia L 89 - 93 2OT 92% +0  4 - 5 -17 -8 C F F -9 D+ C+ F
 Sun, Dec 14 119 @UAB W 86 - 85 38% +0  5 - 5 +7 +19 A- A- A -12 F F+ B+
 Sat, Dec 20 166 Marshall W 70 - 63 72% +6  6 - 5 1 - 0 +4 -5 D- C- D +8 A+ B+ B-
 Wed, Dec 31 270 Texas St. W 100 - 80 86% +8  7 - 5 2 - 0 +11 +28 A+ A+ A+ -16 D- F C
 Sat, Jan 3 190 South Alabama W 59 - 49 77% +5  8 - 5 3 - 0 +5 -3 D- D B- +10 A+ C+ B+
 Wed, Jan 7 158 @Arkansas St. L 74 - 86 48% -10  8 - 6 3 - 1 -9 -3 D+ F C -5 D- D+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 310 @Louisiana W 90 - 70 79% +16  9 - 6 4 - 1 +14 +25 B- A+ D- -9 F A+ C
 Wed, Jan 14 266 Southern Miss W 91 - 65 86% +12  10 - 6 5 - 1 +17 +15 A C A+ +2 B- F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 158 Arkansas St. W 99 - 74 70% +9  11 - 6 6 - 1 +22 +29 A+ A+ B+ -5 B+ F+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 225 @Old Dominion W 83 - 77 2OT 62% -1  12 - 6 7 - 1 +5 -1 F B- C- +5 B- A D+
 Sat, Jan 24 246 @Georgia Southern W 83 - 78 66% +4  13 - 6 8 - 1 +3 +15 C A+ D+ -12 D- F D
 Thu, Jan 29 194 James Madison L 64 - 73 77% -1  13 - 7 8 - 2 -14 -10 F D- B -5 F C- B+
 Sat, Jan 31 197 Appalachian St. W 71 - 63 77%
 Wed, Feb 4 275 @Georgia St. W 76 - 70 71%
 Sat, Feb 7 62 Akron L 80 - 83 38%
 Wed, Feb 11 270 @Texas St. W 74 - 68 70%
 Sat, Feb 14 266 @Southern Miss W 75 - 70 68%
 Wed, Feb 18 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 84 - 68 93%
 Sat, Feb 21 190 @South Alabama W 70 - 68 56%
 Tue, Feb 24 310 Louisiana W 74 - 60 91%
 Fri, Feb 27 361 Louisiana Monroe W 87 - 65 98%
Totals 20 - 9 14 - 4 +3 +2 C C+ C +0 C C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.0 15.6 29.2 30.3 14.8 93.0 1st
2nd 0.5 2.9 1.8 0.3 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.1 1.4 6.5 17.4 29.5 30.3 14.8 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 14.8    14.8
15-3 100.0% 30.3    30.1 0.2
14-4 99.1% 29.2    26.5 2.7 0.0
13-5 89.5% 15.6    8.3 6.2 1.0 0.0
12-6 46.0% 3.0    0.3 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1
11-7 12.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 93.0% 93.0 80.1 10.3 2.0 0.5 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 14.8% 48.0% 48.0% 12.4 0.3 3.8 2.8 0.2 7.7
15-3 30.3% 43.9% 43.9% 12.9 0.0 3.5 7.7 2.0 0.1 17.0
14-4 29.5% 41.5% 41.5% 13.2 0.0 1.5 7.1 3.5 0.2 17.3
13-5 17.4% 37.1% 37.1% 13.5 0.3 3.0 2.9 0.3 10.9
12-6 6.5% 28.3% 28.3% 13.6 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.2 4.7
11-7 1.4% 16.5% 16.5% 13.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2
10-8 0.1% 0.1
9-9 0.1% 0.1
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 41.2% 41.2% 0.0% 13.0 58.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.1% 100.0% 12.1 9.3 74.3 16.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8%