Preseason Rankings
Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#156
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace77.8#11
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#162
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#166
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.4% 7.9% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 13.4
.500 or above 55.0% 58.4% 29.4%
.500 or above in Conference 53.9% 56.3% 35.8%
Conference Champion 8.0% 8.7% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 8.5% 7.5% 16.6%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round7.4% 7.9% 3.1%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Home) - 88.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 76 - 11
Quad 48 - 315 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 328   Tennessee Tech W 83-70 88%    
  Nov 10, 2025 174   @ Eastern Kentucky L 77-79 43%    
  Nov 16, 2025 259   Tennessee St. W 83-75 77%    
  Nov 26, 2025 41   Vanderbilt L 73-86 13%    
  Dec 06, 2025 241   Evansville W 76-69 74%    
  Dec 10, 2025 187   @ Marshall L 76-77 46%    
  Dec 19, 2025 149   Tulsa W 76-73 59%    
  Dec 29, 2025 153   @ Jacksonville St. L 70-73 38%    
  Jan 02, 2026 194   Sam Houston St. W 79-74 66%    
  Jan 04, 2026 143   Louisiana Tech W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 08, 2026 138   @ New Mexico St. L 69-74 34%    
  Jan 10, 2026 157   @ UTEP L 74-77 40%    
  Jan 14, 2026 162   Missouri St. W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 17, 2026 142   Kennesaw St. W 81-79 56%    
  Jan 21, 2026 97   Liberty L 72-74 42%    
  Jan 24, 2026 194   @ Sam Houston St. L 76-77 47%    
  Jan 28, 2026 142   @ Kennesaw St. L 78-82 37%    
  Jan 31, 2026 147   @ Middle Tennessee L 74-78 38%    
  Feb 05, 2026 153   Jacksonville St. W 73-70 59%    
  Feb 07, 2026 210   Florida International W 79-73 69%    
  Feb 14, 2026 147   Middle Tennessee W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 18, 2026 242   @ Delaware W 82-81 55%    
  Feb 21, 2026 97   @ Liberty L 69-77 25%    
  Feb 26, 2026 138   New Mexico St. W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 28, 2026 157   UTEP W 77-74 60%    
  Mar 05, 2026 162   @ Missouri St. L 69-72 42%    
  Mar 07, 2026 210   @ Florida International L 76-77 50%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 8.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.9 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 8.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.5 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 9.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.2 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.3 2.5 0.4 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.2 1.8 3.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.9 2.3 0.5 0.0 7.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.2 1.6 0.5 0.0 6.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.4 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.1 2.2 3.6 4.9 6.5 8.3 9.0 9.9 10.2 9.7 8.8 7.8 6.3 4.5 3.3 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 96.5% 1.0    1.0 0.1
17-3 85.1% 1.7    1.3 0.3 0.0
16-4 63.6% 2.1    1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
15-5 38.0% 1.7    0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 14.4% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.0% 8.0 5.0 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 70.0% 64.8% 5.2% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.7%
19-1 0.4% 51.2% 48.0% 3.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6.1%
18-2 1.1% 44.7% 43.6% 1.2% 11.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 2.0%
17-3 2.0% 31.2% 30.8% 0.4% 11.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.3 0.6%
16-4 3.3% 29.4% 29.3% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.3 0.2%
15-5 4.5% 20.4% 20.4% 12.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 3.6
14-6 6.3% 17.2% 17.2% 12.6 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 5.2
13-7 7.8% 13.1% 13.1% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 6.8
12-8 8.8% 8.1% 8.1% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.1
11-9 9.7% 6.2% 6.2% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.1
10-10 10.2% 2.8% 2.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.9
9-11 9.9% 2.3% 2.3% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.7
8-12 9.0% 1.3% 1.3% 17.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.8
7-13 8.3% 0.9% 0.9% 17.7 0.0 0.1 8.2
6-14 6.5% 0.4% 0.4% 20.2 0.0 0.0 6.4
5-15 4.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.9
4-16 3.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.6
3-17 2.2% 2.2
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 7.4% 7.3% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 92.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 6.6 39.6 60.4
Lose Out 0.0%