Akron
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.3 #67
Expected Predictive Rating +6.4 #85
Pace 76.4 #34
Improvement -4.2 #341

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #30 A A+ B D B+
Defense #161 C D+ B- C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #116 1.33 #33 +4.8 #43
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #316 0.86 #53 -1.9 #273
Three Pointers 46% #94 1.10 #70 +4.3 #44
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #22 +7.2 #24
Freethrows 14.4 #321 73% #162 10.6 #299
Second Chance 35.0% #67 1.41 #2 0.49 #4
Turnovers 15.0% #88
Total Offense +8.2 #30

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #197 1.15 #160 +0.2 #167
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #283 0.78 #217 +1.1 #114
Three Pointers 44% #87 1.01 #174 -1.6 #254
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #187 -0.3 #186
Freethrows 16.6 #143 73% #225 12.2 #199
Second Chance 34.6% #312 1.04 #186 0.36 #281
Turnovers 18.3% #80
Total Defense +0.1 #161

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.1% #56 0.9% #245
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.7% #30 -0.3% #178
Possession Length 15.5 #39 17.6 #230
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #38 0.17 #176
Improvement -4.7 #360 +0.5 #151

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.4% 41.8% 35.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.8 11.8 12.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 65.5% 67.1% 40.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round41.3% 41.7% 35.1%
Second Round9.0% 9.2% 5.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 1.8% 1.9%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Home) - 93.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 38 - 29 - 6
Quad 415 - 124 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 213 James Madison W 85 - 71 90% +0  1 - 0 +8 +5 F A+ B +2 C B A+
 Sat, Nov 8 221 Princeton W 104 - 69 91% +20  2 - 0 +29 +20 A+ A+ A+ +5 C A+ B-
 Sun, Nov 16 3 @Purdue L 79 - 97 7% -12  2 - 1 +7 +13 C A+ B+ -5 B F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 198 Iona W 96 - 75 84% +18  3 - 1 +19 +15 A+ A+ C +2 A- F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 251 Evansville W 97 - 59 89% +13  4 - 1 +33 +25 A+ A+ C +8 B F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 94 Yale L 94 - 97 60% -6  4 - 2 +3 +26 A+ A+ D+ -23 F C D+
 Sat, Nov 29 229 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 105 - 81 91% +13  5 - 2 +17 +16 A+ B F -1 A- F B
 Wed, Dec 3 318 Bucknell W 97 - 77 96% +16  6 - 2 +8 +23 A A A+ -15 F C+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 158 @Tulane W 88 - 71 70% +8  7 - 2 +20 +16 A+ A+ F +4 A+ C- F
 Sat, Dec 13 89 Murray St. L 100 - 115 57% -9  7 - 3 -8 +13 A+ C- A+ -19 F F A+
 Fri, Dec 19 211 Eastern Michigan W 93 - 72 90% +15  8 - 3 1 - 0 +15 +18 A A+ A+ -3 A+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 3 84 @Miami (OH) L 73 - 76 45% +1  8 - 4 1 - 1 +7 +2 D- A+ F +5 A+ F A+
 Tue, Jan 6 325 Central Michigan W 82 - 69 97% +10  9 - 4 2 - 1 -0 +1 A+ A+ F -2 D A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 9 131 @Bowling Green W 77 - 67 64% +11  10 - 4 3 - 1 +15 +5 C A+ C+ +9 C+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 303 Ball St. W 87 - 77 96% +11  11 - 4 4 - 1 -1 +10 B- B A+ -11 F D- D
 Sat, Jan 17 250 Western Michigan W 92 - 76 94%
 Tue, Jan 20 199 @Buffalo W 88 - 80 76%
 Sat, Jan 24 178 @Ohio W 89 - 82 74%
 Tue, Jan 27 164 Toledo W 92 - 80 87%
 Fri, Jan 30 146 Kent St. W 95 - 85 84%
 Tue, Feb 3 211 @Eastern Michigan W 82 - 74 77%
 Sat, Feb 7 125 @Troy W 83 - 80 62%
 Sat, Feb 14 168 Massachusetts W 92 - 80 87%
 Tue, Feb 17 250 @Western Michigan W 89 - 79 83%
 Sat, Feb 21 303 @Ball St. W 85 - 71 89%
 Tue, Feb 24 199 Buffalo W 91 - 77 89%
 Sat, Feb 28 146 @Kent St. W 92 - 88 66%
 Tue, Mar 3 325 @Central Michigan W 88 - 73 92%
 Fri, Mar 6 331 Northern Illinois W 93 - 71 98%
Totals 23 - 6 15 - 3 +8 +8 A A+ B +0 C D+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.3 7.7 18.5 23.9 14.0 65.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 5.8 9.6 7.4 2.3 26.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.4 0.7 0.1 5.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.2 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 4.1 9.7 18.0 26.0 26.2 14.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 14.0    12.8 1.2
16-2 91.3% 23.9    18.3 5.6 0.0
15-3 71.2% 18.5    11.0 7.1 0.4
14-4 42.8% 7.7    2.9 3.8 1.0 0.1
13-5 13.4% 1.3    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 65.5% 65.5 45.1 18.3 1.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 14.0% 53.8% 53.4% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 4.8 1.6 0.1 6.5 0.9%
16-2 26.2% 47.3% 47.2% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 4.1 7.6 0.7 0.0 13.8 0.1%
15-3 26.0% 41.0% 41.0% 12.0 1.9 7.2 1.5 0.0 15.3
14-4 18.0% 35.1% 35.1% 12.2 0.4 4.2 1.6 0.1 11.7
13-5 9.7% 31.7% 31.7% 12.4 0.1 1.8 1.1 0.1 6.6
12-6 4.1% 24.1% 24.1% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 3.1
11-7 1.4% 22.5% 22.5% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.1
10-8 0.5% 16.7% 16.7% 13.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
9-9 0.1% 15.0% 15.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 41.4% 41.3% 0.1% 11.8 58.6 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.3% 100.0% 10.8 0.2 0.5 1.8 4.4 12.6 68.4 12.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.9% 2.7% 11.0 2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5% 0.7% 11.0 0.7