Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#266
Expected Predictive Rating-5.0#244
Pace68.9#210
Improvement-0.3#207

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#219
First Shot+0.2#169
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#302
Layup/Dunks-0.3#192
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#171
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#147
Freethrows-0.6#210
Improvement+1.6#49

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#308
First Shot-1.3#215
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#315
Layups/Dunks+2.5#90
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#135
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#328
Freethrows+0.2#168
Improvement-1.9#327
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.8% 16.2% 10.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 39.2% 55.2% 29.3%
.500 or above in Conference 83.1% 87.3% 80.5%
Conference Champion 14.8% 19.0% 12.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four6.7% 7.2% 6.4%
First Round9.7% 12.9% 7.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Away) - 38.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 31 - 32 - 10
Quad 413 - 715 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 55 @Florida St. L 64-101 5%     0 - 1 -24.3 -8.0 -12.4
  Tue, Nov 11 107 @UAB W 77-74 12%     1 - 1 +10.3 +2.7 +7.4
  Mon, Nov 17 72 @Colorado L 66-94 7%     1 - 2 -17.2 -5.1 -11.7
  Wed, Nov 19 323 @Air Force L 64-66 50%     1 - 3 -7.6 -6.4 -1.3
  Fri, Nov 21 355 IU Indianapolis W 101-80 76%     2 - 3 +8.0 +7.0 -1.6
  Sun, Nov 23 204 SIU Edwardsville L 68-83 40%     2 - 4 -17.9 -0.1 -18.5
  Wed, Nov 26 101 @New Mexico L 87-93 11%     2 - 5 +1.7 +15.7 -13.7
  Sun, Dec 7 263 @Tennessee Martin L 70-73 38%    
  Thu, Dec 11 33 @Missouri L 67-89 2%    
  Wed, Dec 17 65 @Cincinnati L 65-82 6%    
  Mon, Dec 22 70 @Memphis L 67-84 7%    
  Mon, Dec 29 84 @Mississippi St. L 68-83 8%    
  Sat, Jan 3 365 @Mississippi Valley W 81-68 89%    
  Mon, Jan 5 363 @Arkansas Pine Bluff W 82-75 73%    
  Sat, Jan 10 326 Jackson St. W 79-72 73%    
  Mon, Jan 12 338 Alcorn St. W 77-69 77%    
  Sat, Jan 17 293 Alabama A&M W 76-71 66%    
  Sat, Jan 24 332 @Prairie View W 76-74 56%    
  Mon, Jan 26 307 @Texas Southern L 75-76 48%    
  Sat, Jan 31 217 Bethune-Cookman W 75-74 54%    
  Mon, Feb 2 351 Florida A&M W 79-69 81%    
  Sat, Feb 7 290 @Grambling St. L 71-72 45%    
  Mon, Feb 9 197 @Southern L 74-80 29%    
  Sat, Feb 14 363 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 85-72 88%    
  Mon, Feb 16 365 Mississippi Valley W 84-65 96%    
  Thu, Feb 19 351 @Florida A&M W 76-72 63%    
  Thu, Feb 19 217 @Bethune-Cookman L 72-77 33%    
  Sat, Feb 28 293 @Alabama A&M L 73-74 46%    
  Tue, Mar 3 197 Southern L 76-77 49%    
  Thu, Mar 5 290 Grambling St. W 74-69 65%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 11 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.9 4.7 4.1 1.7 0.4 14.8 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 5.7 7.0 3.5 1.0 0.1 19.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 6.2 6.6 2.4 0.3 0.0 17.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 5.2 5.7 1.7 0.2 14.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.8 4.9 1.5 0.1 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.6 4.3 1.5 0.1 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 3.1 1.5 0.1 6.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.5 0.2 4.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 4.7 8.0 11.0 13.6 15.3 15.0 12.5 8.5 5.1 1.8 0.4 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 94.5% 1.7    1.5 0.2
15-3 80.9% 4.1    3.0 1.1 0.1
14-4 55.3% 4.7    2.5 1.9 0.3 0.0
13-5 23.2% 2.9    0.9 1.4 0.6 0.1
12-6 5.8% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.8% 14.8 8.4 4.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.4% 52.0% 52.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.8% 40.1% 40.1% 14.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.1
15-3 5.1% 28.5% 28.5% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 3.6
14-4 8.5% 23.1% 23.1% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 6.6
13-5 12.5% 19.2% 19.2% 15.8 0.1 0.4 1.9 10.1
12-6 15.0% 14.4% 14.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.0 12.8
11-7 15.3% 11.2% 11.2% 16.0 0.0 1.7 13.6
10-8 13.6% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 1.1 12.4
9-9 11.0% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.7 10.3
8-10 8.0% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.3 7.8
7-11 4.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 4.6
6-12 2.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.6
5-13 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 15.7 0.2 0.6 2.4 9.7 87.2 0.0%