Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.5 #306
Expected Predictive Rating -11.2 #331
Pace 70.4 #146
Improvement -3.7 #336

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #269 D D C C C-
Defense #324 D- F C+ D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #165 1.05 #306 -2.0 #250
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #96 0.68 #271 +0.7 #142
Three Pointers 37% #273 0.99 #217 -2.7 #277
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #289 -4.0 #289
Freethrows 16.9 #218 75% #118 12.6 #181
Second Chance 30.9% #178 0.85 #352 0.26 #288
Turnovers 17.0% #210
Total Offense -3.5 #269

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #187 1.26 #300 -2.0 #258
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #321 0.74 #143 +2.0 #52
Three Pointers 46% #55 1.11 #309 -4.7 #343
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #321 -4.8 #320
Freethrows 19.4 #282 74% #250 14.3 #70
Second Chance 35.6% #331 1.14 #295 0.41 #338
Turnovers 17.3% #126
Total Defense -4.9 #324

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.0% #255 1.3% #285
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.9% #285 7.9% #316
Possession Length 17.2 #165 17.1 #159
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #73 0.25 #353
Improvement -3.3 #343 -0.4 #212

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.1% 9.5% 6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 5.6% 8.2% 1.9%
.500 or above in Conference 55.1% 66.7% 37.9%
Conference Champion 6.0% 8.8% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four7.7% 8.9% 6.0%
First Round4.3% 5.1% 3.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Home) - 59.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 30 - 21 - 8
Quad 411 - 1112 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 117 @Florida St. L 64 - 101 10% -20  0 - 1 -31 -15 F C C- -13 C- F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 115 @UAB W 77 - 74 9% +4  1 - 1 +10 +3 C+ D B +7 B+ C+ A+
 Mon, Nov 17 73 @Colorado L 66 - 94 5% -19  1 - 2 -17 -4 F D C -12 D- F B-
 Wed, Nov 19 342 @Air Force L 64 - 66 49% +2  1 - 3 -10 -6 F F C- -4 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 353 IU Indianapolis W 101 - 80 68% +9  2 - 3 +8 +7 B+ D- C+ -2 F A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 278 SIU Edwardsville L 68 - 83 43% -2  2 - 4 -22 -2 F D- B+ -21 F F F
 Wed, Nov 26 48 @New Mexico L 87 - 93 3% +6  2 - 5 +8 +19 A+ A+ F -11 F C+ C
 Sun, Dec 7 225 @Tennessee Martin L 64 - 74 22% +12  2 - 6 -10 -4 C+ F F -7 B- D- A+
 Thu, Dec 11 53 @Missouri L 77 - 85 3% -11  2 - 7 +5 +18 A- A+ A+ -14 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 56 @Cincinnati L 51 - 88 4% -21  2 - 8 -24 -10 F F A+ -14 F C F
 Mon, Dec 22 83 @Memphis L 67 - 88 5% -13  2 - 9 -11 -1 F B+ D -9 F C+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 66 @Mississippi St. L 56 - 94 4% -18  2 - 10 -27 -11 F F D- -16 F F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 365 @Mississippi Valley W 89 - 69 87% +12  3 - 10 1 - 0 -1 +6 C+ F F -7 F C A+
 Mon, Jan 5 327 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 79 - 90 45% -6  3 - 11 1 - 1 -18 -3 D- F C -14 F D- B
 Sat, Jan 10 333 Jackson St. L 64 - 75 69% -7  3 - 12 1 - 2 -25 -20 F C- F -4 B+ D- C
 Mon, Jan 12 347 Alcorn St. W 81 - 66 74% +6  4 - 12 2 - 2 -0 -0 C F F -0 A+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 17 300 Alabama A&M W 74 - 71 59%
 Sat, Jan 24 317 @Prairie View L 78 - 80 42%
 Mon, Jan 26 334 @Texas Southern L 75 - 76 48%
 Sat, Jan 31 272 Bethune-Cookman W 77 - 76 54%
 Mon, Feb 2 322 Florida A&M W 78 - 74 65%
 Sat, Feb 7 269 @Grambling St. L 72 - 77 31%
 Mon, Feb 9 263 @Southern L 74 - 80 30%
 Sat, Feb 14 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83 - 78 67%
 Mon, Feb 16 365 Mississippi Valley W 81 - 63 95%
 Thu, Feb 19 322 @Florida A&M L 75 - 77 44%
 Thu, Feb 19 272 @Bethune-Cookman L 74 - 79 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 300 @Alabama A&M L 71 - 74 38%
 Tue, Mar 3 263 Southern W 78 - 77 52%
 Thu, Mar 5 269 Grambling St. W 75 - 74 53%
Totals 11 - 19 9 - 8 -8 -4 D D C -5 D- F C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 2.5 1.9 0.7 0.1 6.0 1st
2nd 0.5 4.0 2.7 0.5 0.0 7.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.2 4.5 0.7 0.0 8.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 6.6 1.7 0.1 9.3 4th
5th 0.1 4.8 4.6 0.2 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.7 7.9 1.1 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 5.9 4.2 0.1 10.6 7th
8th 0.1 3.2 7.3 0.7 11.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.9 6.0 2.8 0.0 10.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.1 3.6 0.3 9.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.0 0.4 5.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.8 8.1 13.6 18.0 18.6 16.1 11.2 5.9 2.5 0.7 0.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-4 96.6% 0.7    0.6 0.1
13-5 79.4% 1.9    1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-6 41.8% 2.5    0.5 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 7.2% 0.8    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.0% 6.0 2.3 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.7% 21.9% 21.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6
13-5 2.5% 21.6% 21.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5 1.9
12-6 5.9% 18.7% 18.7% 16.0 0.0 1.1 4.8
11-7 11.2% 15.4% 15.4% 16.0 0.0 1.7 9.5
10-8 16.1% 13.1% 13.1% 16.0 2.1 14.0
9-9 18.6% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 1.8 16.9
8-10 18.0% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.7 17.3
7-11 13.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.6
6-12 8.1% 8.1
5-13 3.8% 3.8
4-14 1.2% 1.2
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 16.0 91.9 0.0%