Arkansas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.2#25
Expected Predictive Rating+11.2#57
Pace73.4#94
Improvement-0.1#184

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#38
First Shot+6.8#28
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#124
Layup/Dunks+3.8#57
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#213
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#194
Freethrows+4.0#17
Improvement+0.5#134

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#28
First Shot+11.6#4
After Offensive Rebounds-5.0#359
Layups/Dunks+1.8#113
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#30
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#48
Freethrows+3.4#18
Improvement-0.6#245
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 1.5% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 3.7% 6.0% 1.9%
Top 4 Seed 16.5% 23.7% 10.9%
Top 6 Seed 35.6% 46.9% 26.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 69.4% 80.3% 61.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 67.7% 78.9% 59.2%
Average Seed 6.5 6.1 6.9
.500 or above 84.6% 91.9% 78.9%
.500 or above in Conference 65.2% 71.2% 60.6%
Conference Champion 6.5% 8.4% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 1.7% 3.2%
First Four6.0% 5.2% 6.6%
First Round66.7% 77.9% 58.0%
Second Round46.0% 56.2% 38.1%
Sweet Sixteen19.8% 25.5% 15.3%
Elite Eight8.0% 10.7% 6.0%
Final Four3.2% 4.5% 2.1%
Championship Game1.2% 1.8% 0.7%
National Champion0.4% 0.6% 0.2%

Next Game: Louisville (Home) - 43.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 11
Quad 24 - 210 - 13
Quad 33 - 014 - 13
Quad 46 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 197 Southern W 109-77 96%     1 - 0 +26.6 +20.3 +2.0
  Sat, Nov 8 12 @Michigan St. L 66-69 25%     1 - 1 +18.1 +6.9 +11.1
  Tue, Nov 11 317 Central Arkansas W 93-56 98%     2 - 1 +25.6 +9.5 +13.9
  Fri, Nov 14 221 Samford W 79-75 96%     3 - 1 -2.7 -0.8 -2.0
  Tue, Nov 18 105 Winthrop W 84-83 88%     4 - 1 +2.3 +9.6 -7.3
  Fri, Nov 21 326 Jackson St. W 115-61 98%     5 - 1 +41.8 +27.3 +10.1
  Thu, Nov 27 2 Duke L 71-80 21%     5 - 2 +13.8 +9.0 +4.8
  Wed, Dec 3 9 Louisville L 79-81 44%    
  Sat, Dec 6 153 Fresno St. W 86-69 95%    
  Sat, Dec 13 24 Texas Tech L 76-77 48%    
  Tue, Dec 16 210 Queens W 91-71 97%    
  Sat, Dec 20 5 Houston L 67-72 31%    
  Sun, Dec 28 147 James Madison W 86-69 94%    
  Sat, Jan 3 14 Tennessee L 76-77 48%    
  Wed, Jan 7 49 @Mississippi W 76-75 53%    
  Sat, Jan 10 23 @Auburn L 77-81 36%    
  Wed, Jan 14 88 South Carolina W 80-69 83%    
  Sat, Jan 17 34 @Georgia L 84-86 43%    
  Tue, Jan 20 19 Vanderbilt W 82-81 55%    
  Sat, Jan 24 40 LSU W 82-77 68%    
  Tue, Jan 27 52 @Oklahoma W 80-79 53%    
  Sat, Jan 31 16 Kentucky L 79-80 49%    
  Sat, Feb 7 84 @Mississippi St. W 79-75 65%    
  Tue, Feb 10 40 @LSU L 79-80 47%    
  Sat, Feb 14 23 Auburn W 80-78 57%    
  Tue, Feb 17 10 @Alabama L 83-91 24%    
  Sat, Feb 21 33 Missouri W 82-78 64%    
  Wed, Feb 25 60 Texas A&M W 85-77 76%    
  Sat, Feb 28 17 @Florida L 77-83 30%    
  Wed, Mar 4 36 Texas W 80-75 66%    
  Sat, Mar 7 33 @Missouri L 79-81 43%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.1 1.9 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 6.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 3.1 2.1 0.6 0.1 7.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 3.9 2.4 0.5 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.7 3.9 3.4 0.5 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.2 2.9 4.4 1.1 0.1 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.8 2.0 0.1 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.3 3.4 3.9 0.4 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.6 4.7 1.5 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.6 3.7 2.7 0.2 7.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.1 0.7 6.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 3.7 1.5 0.1 6.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.4 0.3 5.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.8 0.1 3.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 3.9 6.2 9.2 11.6 13.0 14.0 12.2 10.4 7.1 4.5 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 94.9% 1.1    0.9 0.2
15-3 75.7% 2.0    1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-4 42.5% 1.9    0.7 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 15.2% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.5% 6.5 3.3 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 100.0% 24.4% 75.6% 1.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.1% 100.0% 24.6% 75.4% 2.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.6% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 2.8 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.5% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 3.5 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 7.1% 99.9% 15.2% 84.7% 4.3 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.0 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.9%
12-6 10.4% 99.8% 10.6% 89.2% 5.2 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.0 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
11-7 12.2% 98.3% 6.2% 92.1% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.3 3.1 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.2%
10-8 14.0% 94.1% 3.1% 91.0% 7.4 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.4 3.2 2.8 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.8 93.9%
9-9 13.0% 80.0% 2.4% 77.6% 8.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.6 0.1 2.6 79.5%
8-10 11.6% 49.7% 1.1% 48.5% 9.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.5 2.0 0.2 0.0 5.8 49.1%
7-11 9.2% 20.1% 0.4% 19.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.1 7.3 19.7%
6-12 6.2% 4.5% 0.4% 4.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.9 4.1%
5-13 3.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 3.9 0.1%
4-14 2.2% 2.2
3-15 1.2% 1.2
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 69.4% 5.4% 64.0% 6.5 0.9 2.8 5.6 7.2 9.3 9.8 9.8 7.7 5.6 5.0 5.3 0.4 0.0 30.6 67.7%