Arkansas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.4 #26
Expected Predictive Rating +17.3 #23
Pace 76.4 #33
Improvement +0.1 #183

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #11 A- A+ A+ A C-
Defense #60 B+ D- C A C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #179 1.36 #18 +3.7 #63
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #128 0.70 #254 +0.3 #159
Three Pointers 39% #226 1.18 #12 +2.2 #109
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #40 +6.2 #41
Freethrows 21.0 #25 75% #99 15.8 #24
Second Chance 35.7% #52 1.24 #16 0.44 #22
Turnovers 12.7% #11
Total Offense +10.8 #11

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #199 1.11 #120 +1.0 #137
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #139 0.71 #122 +0.1 #182
Three Pointers 40% #216 0.85 #20 +3.8 #49
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #47 +4.9 #47
Freethrows 14.3 #39 66% #9 9.4 #342
Second Chance 28.1% #96 1.35 #365 0.38 #306
Turnovers 16.8% #175
Total Defense +4.5 #60

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #231 -0.2% #146
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.9% #25 -9.4% #38
Possession Length 14.7 #12 18.1 #306
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.34 #3 0.16 #128
Improvement +2.6 #44 -2.5 #316

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.8% 2.1% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 20.1% 22.2% 9.0%
Top 6 Seed 54.8% 57.8% 39.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.2% 93.7% 84.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.7% 93.3% 84.0%
Average Seed 6.2 6.1 7.0
.500 or above 99.0% 99.5% 96.7%
.500 or above in Conference 83.0% 86.3% 65.8%
Conference Champion 7.7% 8.8% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 1.5%
First Four3.7% 3.2% 6.7%
First Round90.5% 92.3% 81.3%
Second Round64.4% 66.6% 53.2%
Sweet Sixteen26.7% 28.2% 18.9%
Elite Eight9.5% 10.1% 6.3%
Final Four3.4% 3.6% 2.1%
Championship Game1.0% 1.1% 0.6%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: South Carolina (Home) - 83.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b5 - 28 - 10
Quad 25 - 113 - 11
Quad 32 - 015 - 11
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 263 Southern W 109 - 77 98% +21  1 - 0 +23 +18 C B A+ +0 B- F D
 Sat, Nov 8 13 @Michigan St. L 66 - 69 26% -2  1 - 1 +19 +9 C+ A+ D- +10 A+ C- B
 Tue, Nov 11 265 Central Arkansas W 93 - 56 98% +16  2 - 1 +28 +11 A+ D A+ +15 A+ C F
 Fri, Nov 14 240 Samford W 79 - 75 97% +8  3 - 1 -4 -2 C F C -2 C D+ D+
 Tue, Nov 18 143 Winthrop W 84 - 83 94% +1  4 - 1 -1 +7 C A A+ -8 D F C-
 Fri, Nov 21 333 Jackson St. W 115 - 61 99% +30  5 - 1 +40 +26 A+ A- A+ +9 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 27 7 Duke L 71 - 80 30% -1  5 - 2 +12 +8 B A- B+ +4 A+ F B-
 Wed, Dec 3 19 Louisville W 89 - 80 57% +10  6 - 2 +22 +14 D+ A+ A +8 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 152 Fresno St. W 82 - 58 94% +15  7 - 2 +21 +7 A C A+ +13 A+ B A+
 Sat, Dec 13 21 Texas Tech W 93 - 86 46% -2  8 - 2 +23 +32 A+ A+ A+ -8 C F F
 Tue, Dec 16 202 Queens W 108 - 80 96% +20  9 - 2 +23 +15 A+ A+ F +5 A+ D- A+
 Sat, Dec 20 5 Houston L 85 - 94 29% -10  9 - 3 +12 +20 A+ A+ A+ -8 F F C
 Mon, Dec 29 213 James Madison W 103 - 74 97% +17  10 - 3 +23 +26 A+ A+ A+ -3 D D- A-
 Sat, Jan 3 20 Tennessee W 86 - 75 57% +1  11 - 3 1 - 0 +24 +16 B- A+ C +8 A- A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 7 65 @Mississippi W 94 - 87 65% +7  12 - 3 2 - 0 +19 +24 A+ A+ A+ -6 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 27 @Auburn L 73 - 95 39% -15  12 - 4 2 - 1 -4 +4 C D- A+ -7 D- F C
 Wed, Jan 14 69 South Carolina W 83 - 73 84%
 Sat, Jan 17 23 @Georgia L 89 - 93 38%
 Tue, Jan 20 9 Vanderbilt L 85 - 87 43%
 Sat, Jan 24 44 LSU W 86 - 80 73%
 Tue, Jan 27 54 @Oklahoma W 84 - 82 58%
 Sat, Jan 31 25 Kentucky W 83 - 80 60%
 Sat, Feb 7 66 @Mississippi St. W 84 - 80 64%
 Tue, Feb 10 44 @LSU W 83 - 82 52%
 Sat, Feb 14 27 Auburn W 87 - 84 62%
 Tue, Feb 17 14 @Alabama L 90 - 96 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 53 Missouri W 87 - 79 78%
 Wed, Feb 25 40 Texas A&M W 90 - 84 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 12 @Florida L 80 - 87 24%
 Wed, Mar 4 41 Texas W 88 - 82 71%
 Sat, Mar 7 53 @Missouri W 84 - 82 58%
Totals 21 - 10 11 - 7 +15 +11 A- A+ A+ +5 B+ D- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.5 2.8 2.3 0.7 0.1 7.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.3 2.7 0.6 0.0 11.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.6 6.6 3.4 0.5 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 6.6 4.4 0.6 12.8 4th
5th 0.2 4.4 5.9 1.0 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 2.0 6.2 1.9 0.1 10.2 6th
7th 0.4 4.4 3.4 0.2 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.6 4.3 0.8 6.7 8th
9th 0.4 3.3 1.9 0.1 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 2.6 0.3 0.0 4.0 10th
11th 0.2 1.7 1.0 0.0 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.1 2.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.4 1.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.8 8.9 13.2 16.3 17.5 15.5 10.9 6.0 2.8 0.8 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 98.0% 0.7    0.6 0.1
15-3 79.7% 2.3    1.4 0.7 0.1
14-4 46.4% 2.8    1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 14.2% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.7% 7.7 3.6 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.8% 100.0% 19.7% 80.3% 2.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.8% 100.0% 20.8% 79.2% 3.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.8 0.2 100.0%
14-4 6.0% 100.0% 13.1% 86.9% 3.7 0.1 0.5 1.9 2.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 10.9% 100.0% 11.0% 89.0% 4.4 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.9 3.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.5% 100.0% 8.1% 91.9% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.1 5.9 4.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 17.5% 99.6% 6.0% 93.6% 6.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.4 6.3 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.6%
10-8 16.3% 99.0% 3.9% 95.2% 6.8 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.5 5.0 3.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 99.0%
9-9 13.2% 96.5% 2.5% 94.0% 7.8 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.0 4.1 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.5 96.4%
8-10 8.9% 81.6% 1.3% 80.3% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.3 1.6 0.0 1.6 81.4%
7-11 4.8% 50.2% 0.3% 49.8% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 0.0 2.4 50.0%
6-12 2.3% 10.5% 0.7% 9.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 2.0 10.0%
5-13 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 11.0 0.0 0.8 0.6%
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 92.2% 6.2% 86.1% 6.2 7.8 91.7%