Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -9.2 313
Results Rating -9.3 312
Consistency 0.13 80
Pace 61.6 344
Improvement +1.8 120

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- 343 F+ D- C D+ C
Defense C- 221 C- D+ B- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 154 F+ 49% 355 -3.1 292
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 203 D 33% 330 -1.2 247
Three Pointers 40% 192 F+ 29% 343 -3.2 289
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 180 F -7.5 362
1st FG Attempt F+ 0.87 357
Second Chance D 25.7% 308 F+ 0.85 354 D- 0.22 350
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.9% 121
Other Turnovers C- 7.7% 236
Turnovers C 16.6% 165
Freethrows C- 0.28 248 C- 71% 236 D+ 0.20 253
Total Offense D- -7.6 343

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 43% 274 F 15.8% 354
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 31% 102 F+ 9.1% 346
Three Pointers C+ 85% 168 B- 0.5% 91
Total C- 54% 212 F 8.3% 358

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 261 D+ 62% 285 -0.1 178
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 198 C+ 37% 118 -0.6 137
Three Pointers 44% 85 D+ 36% 253 +2.7 307
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 151 D+ +2.0 261
1st FG Attempt C- 1.06 245
Second Chance D 34.1% 320 C 1.02 165 D+ 0.35 277
Turnovers from Steals B- 11.0% 68
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 184
Turnovers B- 18.3% 83
Freethrows B- 0.28 98 F 79% 363 C 0.22 186
Total Defense C- -1.6 221

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 219 D+ 9.1% 245
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 256 C 5.3% 144
Three Pointers C 84% 194 D 0.3% 311
Total C- 59% 252 D+ 4.4% 270

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.2 341 17.4 210
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 355 0.15 105
Consistency 0.16 357 0.10 53
Improvement -1.7 275 +3.5 36

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 324 312 295
Results Rating Rank 334 310 282
Conference Record 4 - 14 5 - 13 7 - 11
Conference Finish 13 10 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 37% 6% 61%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Northern Illinois (Away) - 42.7% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 80 - 12
Quad 48 - 98 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 301 Louisiana W 75 - 64 58% +2  75% 1 - 0 C -0 C+ +2 A- D+ C+ C- -2 C- D B-
 Tue, Nov 11 30 @Wisconsin L 55 - 86 2% -19  0% 1 - 1 D- -13 F -13 F+ D+ F C -1 D- F+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 303 Arkansas Little Rock L 62 - 68 59% -2  33% 1 - 2 F+ -17 F -17 F+ F+ F C -1 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 213 @Indiana St. L 52 - 70 19% -2  60% 1 - 3 F -18 F -19 F D- F C -1 C- C B-
 Fri, Nov 28 187 Monmouth L 73 - 80 24% -4  17% 1 - 4 D -9 C+ +2 B+ F A- F -11 F+ F F+
 Sat, Nov 29 323 @Lafayette L 37 - 55 43% -4  21% 1 - 5 F -25 F -36 F F F+ A- +8 A+ F+ D-
 Sun, Nov 30 293 Le Moyne W 96 - 85 45% +0  42% 2 - 5 C+ +3 A+ +21 D+ A+ D F -18 F B- F
 Wed, Dec 3 297 @Evansville L 52 - 64 34% -1  25% 2 - 6 F+ -17 F -22 F F F B +5 C+ C B+
 Tue, Dec 9 209 South Dakota St. L 64 - 68 37% -0  54% 2 - 7 D -10 F+ -8 F C A- C- -2 D- C- B-
 Sun, Dec 14 196 @Campbell L 64 - 69 17% +1  46% 2 - 8 C- -4 F -12 F D- D- A- +8 A- A- C-
 Sat, Dec 20 87 Miami (OH) L 77 - 86 12% -3  28% 2 - 9 0 - 1 D+ -6 C+ +2 B- F A+ D- -7 D C A
 Sat, Jan 3 206 @Buffalo L 72 - 85 18% -14  1% 2 - 10 0 - 2 D- -13 C -0 F B C- F -13 F F A-
 Tue, Jan 6 247 Eastern Michigan L 52 - 74 45% -13  20% 2 - 11 0 - 3 F -30 F -13 F+ F A- F -21 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 190 @Massachusetts L 71 - 79 17% -3  15% 2 - 12 0 - 4 D+ -7 D+ -3 D+ D- B D+ -4 F A+ D+
 Tue, Jan 13 72 @Akron L 77 - 87 4% -11  0% 2 - 13 0 - 5 C +1 B +6 B- C- A- D+ -5 C- C F
 Fri, Jan 16 210 Ohio W 76 - 71 37% +8  99% 3 - 13 1 - 5 C -1 C +1 C- D- B- C -1 D+ C B
 Tue, Jan 20 266 @Central Michigan W 68 - 67 27% +5  82% 4 - 13 2 - 5 C- -2 C+ +3 C- F A+ D -5 F C B
 Sat, Jan 24 321 Northern Illinois W 58 - 53 65% +6  97% 5 - 13 3 - 5 D -8 F -11 F+ D- A- B +4 A+ F F+
 Sat, Jan 31 164 @Toledo L 55 - 73 14% -12  2% 5 - 14 3 - 6 F+ -15 F -20 F F D- B +4 C B+ A-
 Tue, Feb 3 177 @Bowling Green L 52 - 77 15% -13  0% 5 - 15 3 - 7 F -23 F -14 F D+ B F -12 F C A+
 Sat, Feb 7 353 @Louisiana Monroe W 73 - 68 59% +8  99% 6 - 15 D+ -7 F+ -9 F C F B- +2 A+ F C
 Wed, Feb 11 206 Buffalo L 53 - 63 36% -5  3% 6 - 16 3 - 8 F+ -16 F -18 F D- F C+ +1 C+ D+ B
 Sat, Feb 14 159 Kent St. L 68 - 75 28% -6  0% 6 - 17 3 - 9 D -10 F -13 F F B B- +3 D+ A B-
 Tue, Feb 17 210 @Ohio L 57 - 69 19% -6  13% 6 - 18 3 - 10 D- -12 F+ -9 D- F B- D+ -5 C- A- D
 Fri, Feb 20 72 Akron L 65 - 78 10% -7  8% 6 - 19 3 - 11 D+ -8 D- -8 C D+ D C -0 B+ A D+
 Tue, Feb 24 190 Massachusetts W 74 - 73 OT 34% -8  10% 7 - 19 4 - 11 C- -4 F+ -8 F D B+ B +4 A+ F C
 Sat, Feb 28 321 @Northern Illinois L 64 - 66 43%
 Tue, Mar 3 272 @Western Michigan L 66 - 72 29%
 Fri, Mar 6 266 Central Michigan L 67 - 68 49%
Totals 8 - 21 5 - 13 -9 D- -8 A- F C C- -2 F+ C- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- F+ D F+ F 39% 36% 40% C F+ D F+ D- C C- C- D+ C- D+ C+ D+ D+ 36% 20% 44% C C- D C D+ B- B- F C
0.98 49% 33% 29% -7 0 0.87 26% 0.9 .22 17% .28 71% .20 1.11 62% 37% 36% +2 0 1.06 34% 1.0 .35 18% .28 79% .22
Nov
3		 Louisiana C+ C+ F A+ B+ 58% 13% 30% B+ A- D+ C- D+ C+ A+ D- A C- F+ D- A- C- 22% 31% 47% C C- C+ F D B- B+ A+ A
1.17 61% 0% 58% +8 +2 1.23 29% 1.0 .29 17% .53 68% .36 1.00 64% 44% 29% 0 -3 0.96 26% 1.1 .29 19% .17 56% .10
Nov
11		 Wisconsin F D- F C F 40% 17% 44% B+ F+ D+ D D+ F A+ F B C C- A+ F D 37% 2% 61% F+ D- F A F+ A+ A+ F A+
0.80 47% 0% 33% -11 +1 0.81 21% 0.9 .18 20% .39 57% .22 1.26 63% 0% 42% +8 +2 1.24 47% 1.0 .47 22% .15 100% .15
Nov
15		 Arkansas Little Rock F D- B D+ F 41% 11% 48% C+ F+ F A+ F+ F A D+ B+ C F A+ F F 41% 34% 24% D+ F F F F A+ C- A+ B+
0.92 56% 40% 33% -1 +1 1.02 14% 1.5 .21 22% .36 68% .25 1.01 71% 21% 50% +5 -2 1.10 46% 1.5 .69 34% .25 45% .11
Nov
22		 Indiana St. F F A- F F 34% 30% 36% D- F C+ F D- F F A F C D+ F B D+ 42% 8% 50% C C- F A+ C B- A F C
0.80 33% 50% 21% -12 -2 0.75 34% 0.7 .23 20% .10 80% .08 1.08 65% 75% 29% +2 +2 1.10 35% 0.7 .26 20% .17 100% .17
Nov
28		 Monmouth C+ B- C- A+ A- 33% 20% 47% D+ B+ F+ F F A- F F+ F F B- C- F F+ 39% 27% 35% C F+ F+ F+ F F+ D B+ C-
1.10 61% 36% 42% +7 0 1.15 24% 0.7 .16 15% .11 67% .07 1.20 53% 38% 47% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.2 .44 14% .33 68% .23
Nov
29		 Lafayette F F C F F 31% 18% 51% C F D+ F F F+ D F+ D- A- A A+ A+ A+ 43% 28% 30% A- A+ C- F F+ D- F F F
0.60 29% 38% 13% -25 0 0.51 28% 0.4 .12 18% .24 67% .16 0.89 45% 15% 14% -21 -1 0.60 26% 1.2 .32 13% .37 85% .32
Nov
30		 Le Moyne A+ C- F C+ D+ 35% 16% 49% C D+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ D+ A+ F F A F F 25% 15% 60% B F D A+ B- F D+ F F
1.42 56% 13% 36% -3 0 0.96 51% 1.5 .74 16% .50 71% .35 1.26 75% 29% 48% +16 0 1.33 28% 0.7 .20 15% .35 85% .30
Dec
3		 Evansville F F F F F 31% 25% 44% D+ F F F F F C- D+ C- B F D- A+ C+ 26% 23% 51% C C+ D- A C B+ F F+ F
0.77 47% 25% 29% -10 -1 0.79 22% 0.4 .10 21% .26 71% .19 0.95 75% 45% 25% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 22% .35 78% .27
Dec
9		 South Dakota St. F+ B- F F F 39% 16% 45% B- F B F+ C A- B+ D B C- C B F D- 49% 18% 33% D D- D- B- C- B- B+ C- B
1.01 63% 25% 18% -11 +1 0.82 33% 0.9 .30 11% .35 70% .25 1.07 58% 33% 44% +4 +1 1.12 33% 1.0 .33 17% .21 73% .15
Dec
14		 Campbell F F A+ F F 47% 26% 26% C- F C F D- D- B+ D B- A- D- C+ A+ B 35% 24% 41% A+ A- F A+ A- C- F A+ C-
0.92 44% 50% 14% -11 0 0.79 32% 0.8 .26 20% .36 70% .25 0.99 65% 33% 20% -7 -1 0.86 42% 0.6 .24 17% .50 55% .28
Dec
20		 Miami (OH) C+ B+ A+ D+ B 35% 30% 35% D B- F D- F A+ C B C+ D- B A+ F D- 33% 21% 46% B D B F C A F+ F F
1.10 68% 50% 32% +6 -1 1.11 13% 0.8 .09 10% .29 78% .22 1.23 56% 20% 55% +10 0 1.21 20% 1.4 .28 20% .39 95% .38
Jan
3		 Buffalo C F F B- F 31% 16% 53% D+ F B C+ B C- A+ A A+ F F F F F 43% 9% 48% F+ F F F F A- C F F
1.11 43% 29% 38% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.0 .37 19% .44 83% .36 1.31 68% 50% 43% +12 +2 1.30 35% 1.8 .61 20% .35 94% .33
Jan
6		 Eastern Michigan F F D- D+ F 43% 20% 36% C F+ F F F A- C- A+ B F C- F F F 36% 17% 48% F+ F F C F A+ A+ F A
0.90 42% 33% 31% -9 0 0.84 21% 0.3 .06 12% .30 87% .26 1.29 60% 57% 55% +19 0 1.40 48% 1.0 .48 24% .14 83% .11
Jan
10		 Massachusetts D+ D F B D 42% 15% 42% B- D+ F B+ D- B F C F+ D+ F B+ D- F 33% 20% 47% C F B- A+ A+ D+ F D+ F
1.03 55% 25% 36% -2 +1 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 15% .31 72% .22 1.15 87% 33% 38% +11 0 1.24 29% 0.4 .13 17% .51 69% .35
Jan
13		 Akron B C+ A+ D- B- 40% 14% 46% B- B- F A+ C- A- B A- A- D+ C F C- C- 38% 7% 55% D- C- A- F C F C F D+
1.12 60% 71% 30% +3 +1 1.10 23% 1.3 .29 15% .32 79% .26 1.26 62% 75% 35% +5 +2 1.16 27% 1.6 .42 12% .26 88% .23
Jan
16		 Ohio C C C+ C- C- 36% 23% 41% D+ C- D D- D- B- A+ A A+ C D+ F B+ D- 33% 39% 29% A+ D+ C C- C B D+ F D-
1.14 56% 40% 33% -1 0 1.00 28% 0.9 .25 15% .55 81% .44 1.06 63% 53% 29% +5 -3 1.06 28% 1.0 .28 18% .35 79% .27
Jan
20		 Central Michigan C+ C F B+ C 41% 22% 37% D+ C- C F F A+ F B- F D A+ C- F F 33% 27% 40% C+ F F+ A C B A- A+ A+
1.15 60% 27% 39% +1 0 1.04 35% 0.7 .24 8% .20 73% .15 1.14 33% 42% 61% +9 -1 1.18 34% 0.9 .31 20% .21 50% .11
Jan
24		 Northern Illinois F C+ F F F 49% 12% 40% B F+ F A+ D- A- C+ F D+ B D+ F A+ A+ 27% 18% 56% A A+ C+ F F F+ C- F F+
0.97 62% 20% 24% -6 +2 0.93 17% 1.4 .24 13% .35 61% .21 0.89 58% 50% 8% -19 0 0.62 29% 1.3 .38 18% .35 76% .27
Jan
31		 Toledo F F C F F 43% 18% 39% C F D- F F D- A+ C- A+ B F C B- C 33% 24% 43% C+ C A C B+ A- B- F C-
0.81 42% 38% 24% -13 +1 0.77 28% 0.4 .10 21% .50 70% .35 1.08 69% 42% 33% +4 -1 1.08 21% 1.0 .21 19% .26 86% .22
Feb
3		 Bowling Green F C- D+ F F 34% 23% 43% D F F A+ D+ B C F F F F A+ F F 42% 21% 37% B+ F D- B+ C A+ C F F+
0.83 56% 36% 15% -13 -1 0.74 16% 1.5 .24 16% .32 47% .15 1.23 78% 22% 56% +17 0 1.37 32% 0.7 .23 22% .31 93% .29
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Louisiana Monroe F+ F A- D+ F 45% 24% 31% D F C C C F A- A A B- F B+ A+ A+ 29% 31% 40% A A+ D F F C F F F
1.05 45% 50% 33% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.1 .42 20% .33 78% .25 0.98 67% 31% 12% -13 -2 0.71 28% 1.3 .38 17% .63 83% .52
Feb
11		 Buffalo F F F D F 45% 11% 43% B F C- F D- F F B- F+ C+ D+ C- B B- 43% 12% 45% D- C+ D- B- D+ B C- F F+
0.90 45% 20% 32% -10 +2 0.86 31% 0.7 .23 22% .19 78% .15 1.06 61% 40% 32% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.0 .32 19% .35 88% .31
Feb
14		 Kent St. F F F D+ F 49% 9% 42% A- F F D- F B A+ C+ A+ B- B F D D+ 40% 12% 48% D D+ A- A- A B- D+ B C
0.94 42% 0% 32% -13 +2 0.81 20% 0.9 .18 14% .48 73% .35 1.03 50% 50% 38% +1 +1 1.06 29% 0.9 .26 21% .40 70% .28
Feb
17		 Ohio F+ D+ F D- F+ 53% 18% 29% B D- D+ F F B- D F F D+ C+ D- C- C- 36% 23% 41% C C- C A+ A- D F F F
0.95 54% 25% 31% -6 +1 0.93 31% 0.6 .19 15% .28 57% .16 1.15 56% 50% 33% +2 0 1.05 27% 0.7 .18 13% .41 81% .33
Feb
20		 Akron D- F F A+ C- 40% 13% 48% B- C D C+ D+ D F F+ F C D+ C+ A+ A- 46% 14% 40% D B+ C- A+ A D+ C B C+
0.97 37% 17% 48% -1 +1 1.02 27% 1.0 .27 21% .17 67% .11 1.16 65% 38% 26% -2 +1 1.02 34% 0.8 .29 15% .26 73% .19
Feb
24		 Massachusetts F+ D- D F F 42% 15% 42% B- F B+ F D B+ D A+ C B A- A+ A+ A+ 42% 20% 38% D+ A+ F D F C B+ F C
1.01 52% 33% 24% -10 +1 0.85 34% 0.7 .23 14% .35 82% .28 0.99 48% 18% 24% -14 0 0.75 42% 1.3 .53 19% .27 81% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.3 2.3 2.6 7th
8th 6.8 3.8 10.6 8th
9th 6.1 19.6 0.6 26.3 9th
10th 23.6 2.1 25.7 10th
11th 11.0 0.0 11.0 11th
12th 8.4 1.6 10.0 12th
13th 13.7 0.1 13.8 13th
Total 22.1 42.3 28.8 6.9 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 6.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.9
6-12 28.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 28.8
5-13 42.3% 42.3
4-14 22.1% 22.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 22.1%