Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.3 #303
Expected Predictive Rating -13.6 #341
Pace 63.2 #328
Improvement +1.5 #103

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #291 F F C C- C
Defense #293 D- D B- C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #221 1.02 #319 -3.4 #293
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #176 0.64 #312 -1.1 #233
Three Pointers 42% #154 0.91 #303 -1.5 #242
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #340 -6.0 #339
Freethrows 16.5 #235 72% #195 12.0 #218
Second Chance 26.3% #301 0.88 #339 0.23 #341
Turnovers 16.5% #168
Total Offense -4.4 #291

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #276 1.26 #295 +0.3 #164
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #188 0.74 #146 +0.3 #172
Three Pointers 45% #71 1.17 #346 -5.6 #350
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #324 -4.9 #325
Freethrows 14.9 #66 78% #355 11.7 #237
Second Chance 35.5% #329 1.04 #176 0.37 #291
Turnovers 17.9% #93
Total Defense -3.9 #293

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #209 -0.4% #130
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.6% #342 10.1% #332
Possession Length 19.1 #338 16.4 #43
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #321 0.14 #76
Improvement +2.2 #61 -0.7 #225

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.1% 4.5% 0.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 34.8% 21.4% 42.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Home) - 36.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 91 - 13
Quad 46 - 97 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 315 Louisiana W 75 - 64 65% +2  1 - 0 -1 +5 A+ D C -5 D- F B-
 Tue, Nov 11 39 @Wisconsin L 55 - 86 2% -19  1 - 1 -15 -10 F D F -6 D- F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 283 Arkansas Little Rock L 62 - 68 56% -2  1 - 2 -16 -13 F F F -3 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 207 @Indiana St. L 52 - 70 21% -2  1 - 3 -18 -15 F F F -4 D C- B
 Fri, Nov 28 185 Monmouth L 73 - 80 26% -4  1 - 4 -9 +5 A- F A- -14 F F D-
 Sat, Nov 29 326 @Lafayette L 37 - 55 45% -4  1 - 5 -25 -34 F F F +6 A+ D- F
 Sun, Nov 30 295 Le Moyne W 96 - 85 48% +0  2 - 5 +3 +22 D+ A+ C- -19 F B+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 251 @Evansville L 52 - 64 28% -1  2 - 6 -14 -17 F F F +2 C B B+
 Tue, Dec 9 176 South Dakota St. L 64 - 68 34% -0  2 - 7 -8 -5 F C A+ -4 D- C C+
 Sun, Dec 14 191 @Campbell L 64 - 69 19% +1  2 - 8 -4 -9 F F F +5 A- A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 84 Miami (OH) L 77 - 86 13% -3  2 - 9 0 - 1 -5 +5 B- F A+ -10 D- C A+
 Sat, Jan 3 199 @Buffalo L 72 - 85 20% -14  2 - 10 0 - 2 -12 +2 F C+ D -15 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 6 211 Eastern Michigan L 52 - 74 41% -13  2 - 11 0 - 3 -28 -10 F F A+ -22 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 168 @Massachusetts L 71 - 79 16% -3  2 - 12 0 - 4 -6 +1 C D B -7 F A+ D+
 Tue, Jan 13 67 @Akron L 77 - 87 4% -11  2 - 13 0 - 5 +1 +7 B D- A+ -6 C B+ F
 Fri, Jan 16 178 Ohio L 71 - 75 36%
 Tue, Jan 20 325 @Central Michigan L 69 - 70 45%
 Sat, Jan 24 331 Northern Illinois W 73 - 68 69%
 Sat, Jan 31 164 @Toledo L 69 - 80 16%
 Tue, Feb 3 131 @Bowling Green L 64 - 77 12%
 Sat, Feb 7 354 @Louisiana Monroe W 75 - 73 58%
 Wed, Feb 11 199 Buffalo L 71 - 74 39%
 Sat, Feb 14 146 Kent St. L 74 - 80 28%
 Tue, Feb 17 178 @Ohio L 68 - 78 18%
 Sat, Feb 21 67 Akron L 71 - 85 11%
 Tue, Feb 24 168 Massachusetts L 71 - 76 34%
 Sat, Feb 28 331 @Northern Illinois L 70 - 71 47%
 Tue, Mar 3 250 @Western Michigan L 69 - 75 28%
 Fri, Mar 6 325 Central Michigan W 72 - 67 67%
Totals 7 - 22 5 - 13 -8 -4 F F C -4 D- D B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.4 1.6 0.1 4.6 8th
9th 0.7 3.7 3.8 0.6 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 6.0 6.8 1.8 0.1 15.8 10th
11th 1.4 8.6 10.1 2.9 0.2 23.1 11th
12th 0.0 1.5 8.5 9.5 2.4 0.1 21.9 12th
13th 0.7 3.8 8.5 6.7 1.5 0.1 21.3 13th
Total 0.7 3.8 10.0 16.6 20.6 19.3 14.0 8.7 4.2 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
9-9 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.6
8-10 4.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.2
7-11 8.7% 8.7
6-12 14.0% 14.0
5-13 19.3% 19.3
4-14 20.6% 20.6
3-15 16.6% 16.6
2-16 10.0% 10.0
1-17 3.8% 3.8
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%