Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.3#277
Expected Predictive Rating-10.3#318
Pace66.0#277
Improvement-2.4#342

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#276
First Shot-2.5#249
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#270
Layup/Dunks+0.2#168
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#255
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#214
Freethrows-0.4#197
Improvement-2.6#351

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#246
First Shot-0.6#191
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#291
Layups/Dunks+0.0#177
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#82
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#339
Freethrows+3.3#21
Improvement+0.2#173
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.2% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 13.0% 22.8% 7.4%
.500 or above in Conference 22.6% 30.2% 18.3%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 21.9% 15.6% 25.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.7% 1.2% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Monmouth (Neutral) - 36.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 82 - 11
Quad 48 - 710 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 304 Louisiana W 75-64 67%     1 - 0 +0.2 +4.5 -3.3
  Tue, Nov 11 27 @Wisconsin L 55-86 3%     1 - 1 -14.0 -9.7 -5.0
  Sat, Nov 15 248 Arkansas Little Rock L 62-68 56%     1 - 2 -13.9 -11.3 -2.8
  Sat, Nov 22 166 @Indiana St. L 52-70 21%     1 - 3 -16.0 -14.1 -3.3
  Fri, Nov 28 201 Monmouth L 67-71 37%    
  Sat, Nov 29 327 @Lafayette W 70-69 51%    
  Sun, Nov 30 336 Le Moyne W 76-72 65%    
  Wed, Dec 3 291 @Evansville L 67-69 42%    
  Tue, Dec 9 150 South Dakota St. L 69-72 38%    
  Sun, Dec 14 219 @Campbell L 70-76 30%    
  Sat, Dec 20 121 Miami (OH) L 71-77 29%    
  Sat, Jan 3 228 @Buffalo L 70-75 31%    
  Tue, Jan 6 209 Eastern Michigan L 68-69 50%    
  Sat, Jan 10 181 @Massachusetts L 69-77 24%    
  Tue, Jan 13 58 @Akron L 68-87 4%    
  Fri, Jan 16 207 Ohio L 74-75 49%    
  Tue, Jan 20 305 @Central Michigan L 69-70 45%    
  Sat, Jan 24 280 Northern Illinois W 73-70 61%    
  Sat, Jan 31 173 @Toledo L 70-78 23%    
  Tue, Feb 3 140 @Bowling Green L 65-75 18%    
  Wed, Feb 11 228 Buffalo W 73-72 52%    
  Sat, Feb 14 124 Kent St. L 74-80 30%    
  Tue, Feb 17 207 @Ohio L 71-77 29%    
  Sat, Feb 21 58 Akron L 71-84 14%    
  Tue, Feb 24 181 Massachusetts L 72-74 44%    
  Sat, Feb 28 280 @Northern Illinois L 70-73 40%    
  Tue, Mar 3 243 @Western Michigan L 69-74 35%    
  Fri, Mar 6 305 Central Michigan W 72-67 65%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.8 0.4 0.1 4.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.6 1.0 0.1 5.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 3.5 1.2 0.1 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 4.5 2.2 0.2 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.9 3.9 0.6 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.3 3.5 5.0 1.1 0.0 10.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.8 2.2 0.1 11.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.8 3.2 0.4 0.0 12.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 3.3 5.5 3.3 0.5 0.0 13.3 12th
13th 0.5 1.9 4.1 4.4 2.5 0.4 0.0 13.8 13th
Total 0.5 2.0 4.7 8.1 10.9 12.9 13.9 12.9 11.5 8.7 5.9 4.1 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 87.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 65.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-4 26.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 10.9% 10.9% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.5% 4.7% 4.7% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-5 1.2% 7.3% 7.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
12-6 2.0% 7.2% 7.2% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.9
11-7 4.1% 3.5% 3.5% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.0
10-8 5.9% 2.0% 2.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.8
9-9 8.7% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 8.6
8-10 11.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 11.4
7-11 12.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.9
6-12 13.9% 13.9
5-13 12.9% 12.9
4-14 10.9% 10.9
3-15 8.1% 8.1
2-16 4.7% 4.7
1-17 2.0% 2.0
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%