Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -2.5 206
Results Rating -1.9 196
Consistency 0.14 123
Pace 67.0 227
Improvement -3.4 308

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 122 B- C- C+ B C+
Defense D 298 D- C C+ C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 182 C- 57% 197 -0.4 198
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 220 C+ 40% 109 -1.0 232
Three Pointers 44% 115 B 37% 45 +3.9 59
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 122 B- +2.0 107
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 96
Second Chance D+ 26.7% 284 C+ 1.08 103 C- 0.29 228
Opponents' Steals D+ 10.3% 266
Other Turnovers B 6.1% 50
Turnovers C+ 16.4% 155
Freethrows B 0.34 64 C+ 74% 127 B 0.25 59
Total Offense C+ +1.7 122

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 226 C 11.3% 202
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 230 C+ 4.1% 115
Three Pointers D+ 80% 275 B 0.4% 65
Total C 54% 202 C+ 5.3% 141

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 152 D 63% 319 +2.8 281
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 326 D+ 41% 276 -1.4 74
Three Pointers 45% 73 D- 38% 324 +4.3 339
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 302 D- +4.8 343
1st FG Attempt D- 1.13 340
Second Chance D+ 32.7% 282 B 0.95 59 C 0.31 180
Turnovers from Steals B 11.2% 60
Other Turnovers D+ 6.4% 295
Turnovers C+ 17.6% 127
Freethrows B- 0.28 94 D 75% 318 C+ 0.21 131
Total Defense D -4.2 298

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 315 C- 9.7% 222
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 225 D- 1.5% 345
Three Pointers D- 90% 344 D+ 0.5% 245
Total D- 64% 332 D+ 4.3% 283

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 176 17.7 259
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 137 0.21 323
Consistency 0.12 132 0.13 202
Improvement -3.7 339 +0.3 168

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 232 206 175
Results Rating Rank 239 200 165
Conference Record 6 - 12 8 - 10 9 - 9
Conference Finish 8 7 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.9
.500 or above 94% 100% 77%
.500 or above in Conference 17% 23% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Central Michigan (Home) - 72.5% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 33 - 44 - 9
Quad 412 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 226 Southern Miss W 85 - 79 65% -3  28% 1 - 0 C -1 A +14 B+ B- A F -14 F D B
 Fri, Nov 7 227 Green Bay W 83 - 76 66% +3  79% 2 - 0 C +0 B+ +8 B+ C+ B+ D- -7 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 89 @DePaul W 66 - 53 14% +11  92% 3 - 0 A +22 C +0 D- B B A+ +23 B A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 236 Vermont W 94 - 90 67% +0  45% 4 - 0 C- -3 A- +11 A+ F C+ F -14 F C- C+
 Mon, Nov 24 359 VMI W 78 - 70 90% +1  45% 5 - 0 D -8 D+ -3 D D D+ D -5 B+ F F
 Wed, Nov 26 334 Bucknell W 73 - 71 80% +2  53% 6 - 0 D -10 B- +5 C+ F A F -14 F D+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 343 @Canisius W 71 - 53 74% +8  75% 7 - 0 B +9 C +0 D+ C- B- A +10 A D D+
 Sat, Dec 6 133 St. Bonaventure L 69 - 77 46% -7  0% 7 - 1 D -9 D- -7 B B F C- -3 D+ D- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 235 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83 - 79 44% -1  36% 8 - 1 C+ +3 A +12 A+ C- D F+ -9 F F+ C+
 Sun, Dec 14 248 @East Carolina L 70 - 73 47% +8  76% 8 - 2 C- -5 D+ -4 F+ C D+ C -1 A F F
 Sat, Dec 20 272 @Western Michigan W 88 - 71 53% +10  87% 9 - 2 1 - 0 B+ +14 A+ +15 C+ A- A+ C -0 D+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 321 @Northern Illinois W 81 - 67 68% +7  83% 10 - 2 2 - 0 B- +7 B +7 B B+ F+ C+ +0 C- B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 313 Ball St. W 85 - 72 82% +14  98% 11 - 2 3 - 0 C +1 A +13 A+ A+ D+ F -12 D F B-
 Sat, Jan 10 210 @Ohio L 80 - 91 39% -4  35% 11 - 3 3 - 1 D -11 C +0 D+ C B- F -11 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 13 159 Kent St. L 81 - 87 52% -7  6% 11 - 4 3 - 2 D -9 C+ +3 C D+ A+ F -12 F D D+
 Sat, Jan 17 87 @Miami (OH) L 102 - 105 OT 13% +0  47% 11 - 5 3 - 3 B- +6 A +13 A+ D- C- D -6 F A+ D+
 Tue, Jan 20 72 Akron L 63 - 82 23% -17  0% 11 - 6 3 - 4 D- -14 F -13 F+ D- C C -1 D+ A+ B
 Fri, Jan 23 190 Massachusetts L 67 - 68 59% -7  17% 11 - 7 3 - 5 D+ -6 D- -8 B- C- D+ C+ +2 B- C C+
 Tue, Jan 27 177 @Bowling Green W 89 - 78 33% +5  87% 12 - 7 4 - 5 B+ +13 A+ +21 A+ D+ A D- -7 C- F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 210 Ohio L 83 - 95 62% -8  5% 12 - 8 4 - 6 F+ -18 C+ +2 A- C- D F -20 F D F
 Tue, Feb 3 87 Miami (OH) L 71 - 73 28% -4  6% 12 - 9 4 - 7 C +1 D+ -2 A- F F B +4 F+ A+ A-
 Sat, Feb 7 185 @South Alabama L 69 - 81 35% -18  2% 12 - 10 D -11 D -4 C F D- D -6 F C C+
 Wed, Feb 11 313 @Ball St. W 63 - 53 64% +5  91% 13 - 10 5 - 7 C+ +4 C- -1 C C- C B+ +7 C C A
 Tue, Feb 17 321 Northern Illinois L 70 - 72 84% -0  45% 13 - 11 5 - 8 F+ -15 D -5 D C- B- F -11 F B- C+
 Sat, Feb 21 190 @Massachusetts W 86 - 82 OT 36% -2  25% 14 - 11 6 - 8 B- +5 B+ +8 B- B- B- C- -3 F A C+
 Tue, Feb 24 72 @Akron L 85 - 99 10% -8  23% 14 - 12 6 - 9 C- -3 C +2 F+ C C+ C- -3 F A- A
 Sat, Feb 28 266 Central Michigan W 79 - 73 72%
 Tue, Mar 3 247 Eastern Michigan W 75 - 70 69%
 Fri, Mar 6 164 @Toledo L 77 - 82 31%
Totals 16 - 13 8 - 10 -3 C+ +2 A B- C+ D -4 B C+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C- C+ B B- 38% 34% 44% C+ B- D+ C+ C- C+ B C+ B D D D+ D- D- 40% 16% 45% D D- D+ B C C+ B- D C+
1.11 57% 40% 37% +2 0 1.07 27% 1.1 .29 16% .34 74% .25 1.15 63% 41% 38% +5 +1 1.13 33% 0.9 .31 18% .28 75% .26
Nov
3		 Southern Miss A D- A+ A B+ 36% 7% 58% B+ B+ A D- B- A A+ C A+ F D F D F 49% 13% 38% F F C+ F D B D+ F F
1.29 50% 67% 42% +6 +2 1.18 37% 0.9 .34 12% .62 69% .43 1.20 64% 67% 35% +7 +2 1.20 29% 1.3 .38 21% .39 95% .37
Nov
7		 Green Bay B+ B- B- A- B 49% 13% 38% A B+ D+ A- C+ B+ A+ F A+ D- F F F F 38% 4% 58% F F A A+ A+ C+ D D- F+
1.29 63% 40% 40% +6 +2 1.18 28% 1.3 .38 11% .72 66% .47 1.18 71% 50% 42% +12 +2 1.31 15% 0.5 .08 17% .39 81% .32
Nov
11		 DePaul C F B C+ D- 36% 32% 32% D+ D- D+ A+ B B A+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ 32% 17% 51% C B D A+ A+ A+ F A+ C+
0.98 31% 43% 36% -7 -2 0.84 26% 1.3 .34 18% .49 70% .34 0.78 38% 14% 43% -3 0 0.95 34% 0.3 .11 30% .42 50% .21
Nov
18		 Vermont A- A A+ A+ A+ 41% 16% 43% B A+ F+ F F C+ A+ A+ A+ F D+ F F F 43% 8% 49% F F B+ F C- C+ F F F
1.29 70% 50% 43% +13 +1 1.29 19% 0.5 .10 12% .58 84% .48 1.23 64% 50% 48% +14 +2 1.33 19% 1.4 .26 16% .36 82% .30
Nov
24		 VMI D+ F A- B+ F+ 45% 5% 50% A D F+ B- D D+ A+ B- A+ D C- F A+ B+ 30% 17% 53% B- B+ F F F F D- C+ D
1.17 50% 50% 40% +1 +2 1.10 31% 1.1 .34 18% .68 76% .51 1.05 56% 44% 18% -12 0 0.77 36% 1.2 .43 12% .34 70% .24
Nov
26		 Bucknell B- D- A A- C 35% 8% 56% A- C+ C- F F A B C B- F F A F+ F 40% 9% 51% F+ F F A+ D+ D B A+ A
1.20 53% 50% 41% +5 +1 1.15 31% 0.6 .19 13% .36 74% .26 1.17 68% 25% 38% +6 +2 1.17 41% 0.8 .31 18% .24 58% .14
Nov
29		 Canisius C D C C D+ 23% 10% 67% C D+ F A+ C- B- C A+ B A B- F+ A+ A+ 40% 23% 36% D+ A B F D D+ C+ C C
1.10 55% 40% 34% 0 0 1.02 19% 1.7 .31 14% .31 82% .25 0.82 47% 45% 12% -15 0 0.72 23% 1.3 .29 19% .27 71% .19
Dec
6		 St. Bonaventure D- A D C B- 43% 13% 43% B B F+ A+ B F F+ F F C- F+ B D D+ 36% 18% 47% D D+ F A D- A+ C- F D
1.03 70% 33% 35% +5 +1 1.15 21% 1.8 .38 25% .22 64% .14 1.15 69% 38% 38% +7 0 1.16 52% 0.8 .42 25% .28 86% .24
Dec
9		 Maryland Baltimore Co. A B+ A+ A+ A+ 50% 21% 29% C+ A+ B- F+ C- D A A+ A+ F+ D+ F D F 30% 23% 47% B- F D- F+ F+ C+ A+ F A
1.25 67% 60% 43% +13 +1 1.29 31% 0.9 .27 15% .32 89% .28 1.19 63% 67% 36% +9 -1 1.19 27% 1.1 .31 17% .14 100% .14
Dec
14		 East Carolina D+ F A+ C F 39% 16% 45% B F+ B D- C D+ A+ C+ A+ C A+ C+ A+ A+ 42% 21% 37% D- A D F F F F F+ F
1.02 35% 50% 35% -7 +1 0.90 36% 1.0 .36 19% .38 76% .29 1.06 41% 36% 21% -15 0 0.73 37% 1.2 .44 10% .49 77% .37
Dec
20		 Western Michigan A+ A- F C C+ 34% 8% 58% B- C+ C A+ A- A+ A- B A C C C C C- 35% 14% 51% D- D+ C A+ A+ F A C- A-
1.34 71% 25% 34% +4 +1 1.12 30% 1.5 .45 6% .39 75% .29 1.08 55% 38% 34% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.4 .12 11% .20 75% .15
Dec
31		 Northern Illinois B C F A+ B 43% 15% 43% C B B- A B+ F+ A D+ A- C+ F F A+ C 38% 4% 58% D- C- C A B+ D+ B F D-
1.19 60% 29% 45% +6 +1 1.17 34% 1.3 .44 21% .42 70% .29 0.98 68% 50% 24% -4 +2 0.98 30% 0.6 .18 21% .29 88% .26
Jan
3		 Ball St. A B+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 9% 48% A- A+ C A+ A+ D+ A- A+ A+ F A B+ F+ D- 31% 16% 53% C D F F+ F B- F F F
1.31 68% 50% 43% +12 +2 1.30 35% 1.8 .61 20% .35 94% .33 1.11 43% 29% 38% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.0 .37 19% .44 83% .36
Jan
10		 Ohio C D- A+ D D+ 41% 19% 41% C D+ C+ C- C B- B F C- F F F F F 43% 26% 32% C- F F F F A+ D F F
1.09 50% 50% 32% -2 0 0.98 35% 1.0 .35 15% .35 64% .22 1.24 75% 58% 40% +15 0 1.32 50% 1.3 .64 24% .36 85% .31
Jan
13		 Kent St. C+ C F A C 38% 22% 40% C- C F A+ D+ A+ A C- A- F F A+ F F 44% 16% 40% D F D+ D D D+ A- D B
1.15 57% 25% 41% +1 0 1.04 15% 1.7 .26 7% .41 70% .29 1.24 68% 13% 45% +7 +1 1.18 36% 1.2 .42 17% .31 78% .24
Jan
17		 Miami (OH) A C+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% C- A+ D D- D- C- B+ A A D F A+ F F 48% 10% 43% F F A A+ A+ D+ D+ A+ B-
1.22 62% 53% 50% +15 -1 1.30 24% 0.8 .18 18% .34 83% .28 1.26 76% 17% 46% +14 +2 1.34 15% 0.8 .12 13% .36 62% .22
Jan
20		 Akron F C- B- F F 30% 19% 52% D+ F+ C F D- C D- D D- C C B+ F D 29% 12% 59% C+ D+ B+ A+ A+ B F+ B D-
0.90 56% 40% 25% -7 0 0.87 32% 0.7 .23 19% .23 69% .16 1.17 60% 33% 43% +8 +1 1.20 29% 1.0 .29 19% .33 74% .25
Jan
23		 Massachusetts D- A+ B- C B+ 23% 26% 51% F B- F A+ C- D+ F F F C+ D- A- B+ B- 36% 28% 36% B B- D+ B C C+ B- B B
1.01 82% 42% 33% +6 -2 1.11 17% 1.6 .28 18% .26 50% .13 1.03 65% 31% 29% -2 -1 0.96 34% 1.1 .37 20% .30 63% .19
Jan
27		 Bowling Green A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 10% 50% B A+ D- B D+ A B+ B+ A- D- D+ A+ C- C- 55% 12% 33% D- C- D F F D+ B+ A+ A
1.33 53% 60% 54% +15 +1 1.35 22% 1.2 .26 13% .38 77% .29 1.17 61% 17% 35% 0 +2 1.06 31% 1.4 .43 15% .26 60% .16
Jan
31		 Ohio C+ B A+ A A 48% 26% 26% C- A- F A+ C- D A+ D+ A+ F F F B+ F 46% 28% 26% C- F F B- D F F F+ F
1.16 64% 50% 42% +9 0 1.20 22% 1.5 .33 18% .46 70% .32 1.33 72% 53% 29% +9 0 1.19 35% 0.9 .32 8% .40 77% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Miami (OH) D+ A- C- A A- 35% 17% 48% C+ A- B+ F F F B+ B A- B F F A- F+ 43% 20% 37% C F+ A- A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+
1.04 69% 38% 41% +9 0 1.20 36% 0.2 .06 22% .34 78% .26 1.07 78% 64% 30% +12 0 1.26 18% 0.4 .07 19% .11 50% .05
Feb
7		 South Alabama D C D- B- C+ 9% 18% 74% F C D- F F D- F F F D B+ F F F 49% 10% 41% F+ F A- F C C+ F B- D-
0.99 60% 30% 36% +1 -2 1.00 24% 0.8 .20 20% .11 67% .07 1.16 50% 80% 45% +7 +2 1.20 17% 1.6 .28 14% .40 63% .25
Feb
11		 Ball St. C- C+ B- D D+ 43% 12% 45% B+ C C- C- C- C A A+ A+ B+ B+ A+ C+ B- 45% 11% 43% F C F+ B+ C A A F B+
1.06 61% 40% 32% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.0 .32 19% .35 88% .31 0.90 45% 20% 32% -10 +2 0.86 31% 0.7 .23 22% .19 78% .15
Feb
17		 Northern Illinois D B- F D+ D- 45% 16% 39% C D F A+ C- B- D+ C- D+ F C- A F F 31% 9% 60% C F B- B- B- C+ B- F C
1.07 64% 13% 32% -3 +1 0.98 16% 2.0 .31 15% .31 71% .22 1.10 57% 25% 48% +11 +1 1.27 29% 0.8 .21 23% .30 73% .22
Feb
21		 Massachusetts B+ C- F A+ B 35% 19% 46% C- B- F+ A+ B- B- A+ C+ A C- F F F F 35% 24% 41% B- F D- A+ A C+ D- A C
1.19 59% 22% 45% +5 0 1.13 20% 1.7 .33 15% .49 73% .36 1.13 71% 58% 40% +13 -1 1.27 37% 0.7 .27 19% .38 59% .22
Feb
24		 Akron C C- F F F 45% 9% 45% A- F+ B D- C C+ A+ A- A+ C- D- C F F 53% 9% 38% F F B B+ A- A F F F
1.06 56% 0% 28% -8 +2 0.89 38% 0.8 .31 17% .50 79% .39 1.23 68% 40% 45% +12 +2 1.30 30% 1.1 .33 21% .46 90% .41



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 11.4 11.4 5th
6th 1.9 30.2 5.1 37.3 6th
7th 0.5 23.8 16.3 40.7 7th
8th 2.7 4.6 7.3 8th
9th 3.2 0.1 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 6.5 30.5 46.5 16.5 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 16.5% 3.3% 3.3% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 16.0
8-10 46.5% 2.2% 2.2% 14.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 45.5
7-11 30.5% 1.2% 1.2% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 30.1
6-12 6.5% 6.5
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 14.4 98.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 13.6 2.8 45.0 43.1 9.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.0%
Lose Out 6.5%