Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.4 #199
Expected Predictive Rating +1.5 #141
Pace 66.9 #240
Improvement -3.4 #327

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #111 B- C B- A B
Defense #319 D- C- C C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #126 1.12 #230 +0.3 #167
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #298 0.79 #126 -1.9 #272
Three Pointers 45% #110 1.11 #59 +4.1 #52
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #110 +2.5 #110
Freethrows 21.8 #14 74% #138 16.1 #15
Second Chance 27.9% #253 1.16 #55 0.32 #161
Turnovers 15.6% #115
Total Offense +2.2 #111

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #184 1.26 #301 -2.1 #259
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #337 0.83 #290 +1.7 #69
Three Pointers 47% #40 1.07 #257 -4.2 #331
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #316 -4.6 #316
Freethrows 16.0 #118 80% #364 12.8 #170
Second Chance 33.7% #290 1.01 #133 0.34 #239
Turnovers 16.9% #155
Total Defense -4.6 #319

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #72 1.6% #308
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.0% #138 7.3% #309
Possession Length 17.7 #219 17.8 #260
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #140 0.20 #273
Improvement -2.0 #304 -1.3 #268

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 4.0% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 91.3% 98.2% 90.3%
.500 or above in Conference 54.9% 81.6% 51.0%
Conference Champion 0.4% 2.2% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.1% 4.0% 1.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (OH) (Away) - 12.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 32 - 4
Quad 33 - 64 - 10
Quad 413 - 317 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 210 Southern Miss W 85 - 79 63% -3  1 - 0 +0 +16 A- B A+ -16 F D- A
 Fri, Nov 7 243 Green Bay W 83 - 76 70% +3  2 - 0 -1 +11 A- B- B+ -12 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 98 @DePaul W 66 - 53 16% +12  3 - 0 +21 +3 F B A- +19 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 195 Vermont W 94 - 90 61% +0  4 - 0 -1 +13 A+ F C -14 F C B-
 Mon, Nov 24 339 VMI W 78 - 70 80% +1  5 - 0 -3 +3 C- D- C- -6 B F F
 Wed, Nov 26 318 Bucknell W 73 - 71 75% +10  6 - 0 -7 +10 C+ F A -17 F F B
 Sat, Nov 29 337 @Canisius W 71 - 53 71% +8  7 - 0 +10 +2 C- C- C- +9 A- C C+
 Sat, Dec 6 127 St. Bonaventure L 69 - 77 45% -7  7 - 1 -9 -3 A- C F -6 D- C- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 277 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83 - 79 55% -1  8 - 1 +0 +12 A+ D D- -11 F D- C
 Sun, Dec 14 262 @East Carolina L 70 - 73 52% +8  8 - 2 -6 -0 D- C D- -6 A+ F F
 Sat, Dec 20 250 @Western Michigan W 88 - 71 49% +10  9 - 2 1 - 0 +15 +18 B B+ A+ -2 C- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 331 @Northern Illinois W 81 - 67 70% +7  10 - 2 2 - 0 +6 +8 B- B- F -1 C A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 303 Ball St. W 85 - 72 80% +14  11 - 2 3 - 0 +2 +14 A+ A+ D -11 D+ F B
 Sat, Jan 10 178 @Ohio L 80 - 91 35% -4  11 - 3 3 - 1 -9 +3 D+ C C+ -12 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 13 146 Kent St. L 81 - 87 49% -7  11 - 4 3 - 2 -8 +5 C D A+ -13 F D+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 84 @Miami (OH) L 74 - 86 13%
 Tue, Jan 20 67 Akron L 80 - 88 24%
 Sat, Jan 24 168 Massachusetts W 80 - 79 55%
 Tue, Jan 27 131 @Bowling Green L 73 - 80 26%
 Sat, Jan 31 178 Ohio W 80 - 78 58%
 Tue, Feb 3 84 Miami (OH) L 77 - 83 30%
 Sat, Feb 7 190 @South Alabama L 69 - 73 38%
 Wed, Feb 11 303 @Ball St. W 74 - 71 61%
 Tue, Feb 17 331 Northern Illinois W 82 - 71 85%
 Sat, Feb 21 168 @Massachusetts L 77 - 82 34%
 Tue, Feb 24 67 @Akron L 77 - 91 11%
 Sat, Feb 28 325 Central Michigan W 81 - 70 84%
 Tue, Mar 3 211 Eastern Michigan W 74 - 71 62%
 Fri, Mar 6 164 @Toledo L 77 - 82 33%
Totals 17 - 12 9 - 9 -2 +2 B- C B- -5 D- C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 2.4 0.8 0.0 5.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.8 4.9 1.7 0.1 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.7 7.1 3.3 0.2 13.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 8.0 5.2 0.5 0.0 15.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 7.5 7.7 1.1 0.0 17.6 7th
8th 0.6 5.4 8.2 1.8 0.0 15.9 8th
9th 0.3 3.3 6.2 2.1 0.0 11.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 2.8 1.5 0.1 5.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.7 0.1 2.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.8 7.4 14.3 19.9 20.6 16.5 10.6 4.9 1.8 0.5 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 84.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-4 47.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1
13-5 8.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.5% 10.9% 10.9% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.8% 6.8% 6.8% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6
12-6 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 13.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.6
11-7 10.6% 4.6% 4.6% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 10.1
10-8 16.5% 3.4% 3.4% 14.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 16.0
9-9 20.6% 2.0% 2.0% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 20.2
8-10 19.9% 1.1% 1.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 19.7
7-11 14.3% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 14.3
6-12 7.4% 7.4
5-13 2.8% 2.8
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 13.9 97.9 0.0%