Central Florida
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.5 #50
Expected Predictive Rating +17.3 #24
Pace 73.6 #62
Improvement -0.3 #198

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #47 B+ A+ B C- C+
Defense #81 B- B B- C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #67 1.29 #62 +5.5 #26
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #164 0.75 #176 +0.2 #164
Three Pointers 36% #291 1.13 #43 -0.7 #205
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #53 +5.0 #53
Freethrows 15.6 #276 75% #124 11.6 #244
Second Chance 38.7% #19 1.19 #33 0.46 #13
Turnovers 15.0% #86
Total Offense +7.0 #47

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #236 1.02 #31 +3.8 #67
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #210 0.73 #137 +0.7 #144
Three Pointers 44% #95 1.01 #181 -1.5 #250
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #88 +2.9 #88
Freethrows 18.2 #226 75% #289 13.7 #112
Second Chance 26.0% #38 1.04 #183 0.27 #67
Turnovers 17.9% #94
Total Defense +3.5 #81

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #155 0.0% #168
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.3% #50 -5.7% #76
Possession Length 15.3 #31 18.7 #346
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #47 0.13 #52
Improvement -2.1 #308 +1.9 #75

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 5.6% 8.4% 2.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 57.8% 68.4% 47.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 57.7% 68.2% 47.3%
Average Seed 8.9 8.7 9.3
.500 or above 99.0% 99.8% 98.3%
.500 or above in Conference 49.3% 63.0% 35.9%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.4% 2.3%
First Four12.0% 11.0% 12.9%
First Round51.2% 62.1% 40.6%
Second Round21.2% 26.9% 15.6%
Sweet Sixteen4.3% 5.6% 3.0%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.7% 0.8%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kansas St. (Away) - 49.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 8
Quad 26 - 310 - 11
Quad 36 - 016 - 11
Quad 45 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 110 Hofstra W 82 - 78 81% +1  1 - 0 +5 +7 B- A+ F -2 C A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 9 Vanderbilt L 93 - 105 26% -12  1 - 1 +5 +23 A+ A+ A- -17 D+ F F
 Tue, Nov 11 322 Florida A&M W 97 - 60 97% +22  2 - 1 +24 +13 A+ A+ F +9 C+ A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 14 40 @Texas A&M W 86 - 74 30% -2  3 - 1 +28 +15 A+ D C +12 A+ D+ A
 Mon, Nov 17 135 Oakland W 87 - 83 87% +5  4 - 1 +2 +5 C A+ C- -3 B- A C+
 Thu, Nov 20 88 Pittsburgh W 77 - 67 65% +5  5 - 1 +17 +15 C+ A+ C- +2 A+ C A-
 Tue, Nov 25 156 Quinnipiac W 102 - 91 89% +2  6 - 1 +8 +19 A B+ A+ -12 F A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 29 339 VMI W 82 - 57 98% +9  7 - 1 +11 +4 F D- A+ +8 A- B- A-
 Sun, Dec 7 166 Towson W 86 - 61 90% +17  8 - 1 +21 +20 A+ A+ C+ +3 C D A+
 Wed, Dec 17 153 Mercer W 81 - 63 89% +10  9 - 1 +15 +3 D+ B+ B- +12 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 201 Florida Gulf Coast W 102 - 80 92% +5  10 - 1 +17 +21 A+ A+ A- -5 F A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 23 102 Florida Atlantic W 85 - 80 70% -1  11 - 1 +10 +8 B A+ B- +2 A D D
 Sat, Jan 3 18 Kansas W 81 - 75 37% +2  12 - 1 1 - 0 +20 +16 A- A+ A+ +4 A+ B A
 Tue, Jan 6 62 @Oklahoma St. L 76 - 87 44% -6  12 - 2 1 - 1 +1 -3 F A+ A- +5 D- A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 11 56 Cincinnati W 73 - 72 64% +1  13 - 2 2 - 1 +8 +12 A+ A+ C -4 A- F F
 Wed, Jan 14 74 @Kansas St. L 85 - 86 50%
 Sat, Jan 17 2 Arizona L 77 - 88 16%
 Tue, Jan 20 6 @Iowa St. L 71 - 84 10%
 Sat, Jan 24 73 @Colorado L 82 - 83 48%
 Tue, Jan 27 82 Arizona St. W 85 - 78 73%
 Sat, Jan 31 21 Texas Tech L 78 - 81 39%
 Wed, Feb 4 5 @Houston L 65 - 79 10%
 Sun, Feb 8 56 @Cincinnati L 74 - 76 42%
 Sat, Feb 14 59 West Virginia W 75 - 71 65%
 Tue, Feb 17 45 TCU W 77 - 75 57%
 Sat, Feb 21 113 @Utah W 83 - 79 64%
 Tue, Feb 24 11 @BYU L 76 - 88 13%
 Sat, Feb 28 37 Baylor L 81 - 82 49%
 Tue, Mar 3 62 Oklahoma St. W 89 - 84 66%
 Fri, Mar 6 59 @West Virginia L 72 - 74 43%
Totals 19 - 11 8 - 10 +11 +7 B+ A+ B +3 B- B B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.2 1.8 3rd
4th 0.2 1.4 2.0 0.7 0.1 4.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.3 1.7 0.2 8.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.9 6.0 3.2 0.3 0.0 12.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 7.3 4.5 0.6 0.0 14.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 5.7 5.9 1.0 0.0 13.2 8th
9th 0.1 3.1 6.9 2.0 0.0 12.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 5.8 3.0 0.2 9.9 10th
11th 0.1 3.0 4.4 0.5 0.0 8.0 11th
12th 0.0 1.0 3.9 1.0 0.0 5.9 12th
13th 0.2 2.2 1.9 0.1 4.4 13th
14th 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.3 2.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 16th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.0 5.2 10.0 14.9 18.0 18.6 13.8 9.6 4.6 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 68.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 11.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.3% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 4.5% 95.5% 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.6% 100.0% 6.3% 93.8% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
13-5 2.0% 99.7% 3.0% 96.7% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 4.6% 98.9% 1.7% 97.2% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 98.9%
11-7 9.6% 97.4% 0.6% 96.8% 7.8 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.4 2.9 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.3 97.4%
10-8 13.8% 91.7% 0.5% 91.1% 8.7 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.0 4.5 2.7 0.6 1.2 91.6%
9-9 18.6% 80.2% 0.2% 80.0% 9.5 0.1 0.4 1.9 4.9 5.4 2.2 0.0 3.7 80.1%
8-10 18.0% 53.0% 0.2% 52.8% 10.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.5 4.9 0.0 8.4 52.9%
7-11 14.9% 23.9% 0.1% 23.8% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.8 0.1 11.4 23.8%
6-12 10.0% 5.1% 0.1% 5.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 9.5 5.0%
5-13 5.2% 1.3% 0.1% 1.2% 11.2 0.1 0.0 5.1 1.2%
4-14 2.0% 2.0
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 57.8% 0.4% 57.4% 8.9 42.2 57.7%